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Oil tumbles as doubt cloud market
August 6, 2011 .
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Global oil prices fell sharply but then recovered Friday as economic worries in Europe and the United States cast more clouds over the market.
New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in September, added 25 cents to $86.88 a barrel from late Thursday, after having traded down to $82.87.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for September rebounded $2.12 to $109.37 dollars.
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Worries over new fiscal collapses in Italy and Spain spread panic through the eurozone, adding to Thursday's market weakness, but a better-than-expected US July jobs report helped firm the markets.
While not stunning, the pickup in new jobs quelled some worries that the US was turning back towards recession.
"A drastic weakening of sentiment has brought oil prices down sharply, with sovereign debt fears key in a mounting loss of faith in economic, and hence demand, prospects," said Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital.
But some warned there was nothing in Friday's news to clear up doubts about the strength of demand for oil in the second-half of 2011, and of the OPEC cartel's ability to support prices at their current levels.
Iran's representative to OPEC Mohammad Ali Khatibi hinted Friday the cartel might begin reviewing the low crude prices.
"If the oil price fall continues, the OPEC ministers will consult. But whether there is a need for an extraordinary meeting, it is too early to say," he was quoted by the Iran oil ministry's news agency SHANA as saying.
Analysts were mixed over the outlook for the market and worries of a repeat of 2008, when prices surged to near $150 a barrel and then lost more than three-quarters of their value, with OPEC unable to halt the plummet.
"Even with today's increase of 117,000 jobs in the payroll data, the prospects for normal post-recession job growth remain dim," said oil market analyst James Williams of WTRG Economics.
"Should the non-recovery turn to recession, a (crude oil) price collapse is almost inevitable."
Horsnell however downplayed another price crash.
"In our view, short of another unexpected major discontinuous economic calamity of the magnitude of the events of September 2008, the answers are that: no this not a rerun of 2008; and yes, OPEC, or at least Saudi Arabia, has more power and more incentive to defend the floor effectively this time around," Horsnell said.
Meanwhile US officials have granted Anglo-Dutch energy giant Shell conditional approval to begin drilling exploration wells in the Arctic Ocean from next year, in a move swiftly slammed by conservationists as "inexcusable."
The US Interior Department opened the doors to Shell's proposal for four shallow water exploration wells in Alaska's Beaufort Sea to start in July 2012, said the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement.
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/markets/oil-tumbles-as-doubt-cloud-market-20110806-1ig61.html#ixzz1UMRdUs89
If the world dumps the dollar expect oil to fly.
I wish it was obvious. I am long in Silver but in this crazy world, shorting both might not be a bad idea. I did it and earned money in the double oil ETF's.
I am staying strong in the TIPS ETF.
I would see no reason yet to flee from the US back securities. With on sign of a pen, everything can change.
Hard not to consider this one right now.
I guess I was right.
Because of "leakage" you can short both AGQ and ZSL netting almost guaranteed return everytime.
Leakage is going to happen because fees and Contango.
Contango refers to the market condition wherein the price of a forward or futures contract is trading above the expected spot price at contract maturity. Since trading these ETF’s I have never seen Normal Backwardation.
This is an example of 6 month.
Stock... 2/7/2011 price.... Investment.... shares.....sold short 8/4/2011 price..... ....... Return
zsl...... $42.00............ $1,000.00........... 23.81....... $14.08........ $27.92.................. $664.78
AGQ.. $138.00........... $1,000.00............ 7.25........ $197.63...... ($59.63)................. $(432.10)
Total invested:...... $2,000.00 .......................................................$232.67.... 12%
Surf... I think I am gonna pick some up too. I have been in cash for a couple months now and won't miss this next tic up. We'll see.
I would say that report says it all. Nice job on it.
Price may start to go up!
Support oil-Shell
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - Concerns over rising demand, geopolitical tension and falling output capacity are supporting oil prices, Shell (RDSa.L) Chief Executive Peter Voser said on Thursday, citing estimates that OPEC spare capacity was below 2 million barrels per day (bpd).
Voser told Reuters Insider Television that he was sure energy prices would rise "over the next decades" and that oil was now being bolstered by several factors:
"It is reflecting obviously today expectations that demand will still go up and supply will be in a catch up mode.
"It also reflects that OPEC spare capacity is now below 2 million barrels (per day), according to the latest numbers, and there are some geopolitical tensions in it," he said in an interview.
Voser said he did not support the release of oil from strategic stocks, announced by the International Energy Agency at the end of June, because it would not bring long-term relief to global oil markets.
"I don't believe in these measures," Voser said. "These are very short-term measures and do not bring any medium and long-term benefits."
He said the oil market instead needed long-term measures such as new sources of oil and called for access to reserves in areas including the United States and the Arctic as well as faster development of oil resources in Iraq.
Such moves would be "much more important than releasing some short-term inventories, because that will really drive a sustained supply to meet demand in the longer term". (Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Christopher Johnson; editing by Jason Neely)
Good to know we can tax the rich to make up for all that.
I'm thinking once the Fed budget stuff gets settled we see gold dip a bit.
Yes at ETrade
This is a neat one...
Paid $64K. Maybe the put a $100K to $150K in it....
sell for near this one...
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2021-Rivermont-Ave_Lynchburg-City_
VA_24503_M68142-68172?ex=VA527169706&source=web
IEA Raises Estimate for OPEC Crude Demand
By Grant Smith - Jun 16, 2011 4:00 AM ET
The International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for the amount of crude that will be needed from OPEC this year as supply growth outside the group slows.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries must provide an average of 30.1 million barrels a day in 2011, the IEA said today in its monthly market report, or 400,000 a day more than it estimated last month. OPEC failed to agree an output target when it met on June 8. Demand for the group’s oil in the third quarter is about 1.5 million barrels a day more than May production levels and there are “reassuring signs” members will boost output, the IEA said.
“There is a clear need for the organization to boost supply,” the Paris-based adviser said. “There are reassuring signs that Saudi Arabia and some other producers will rise to the challenge. Without such positive developments, there is a risk” of “damaging implications” for the global economy.
Brent crude futures have advanced 20 percent this year, trading today at $113 a barrel in London, as world consumption increases and conflict halts exports from Libya, holder of Africa’s largest reserves. Saudi Arabia said June 8 that it and three other Persian Gulf exporters will keep markets adequately supplied in the absence of a collective OPEC pledge to do so.
The agency boosted its global oil demand forecasts for this year and last. World crude consumption will rise by 1.3 million barrels a day to 89.3 million a day in 2011, or 100,000 a day more than the IEA predicted last month. It raised demand projections for 2010 by an equivalent amount.
Call-on-OPEC
The 12 OPEC members pumped 29.18 million barrels a day last month, or 210,000 a day more than in April, according to the agency. The increase in May was led by Saudi Arabia, which produced 9 million barrels a day. The so-called call-on-OPEC, or the amount needed to balance world supply and demand, during the third quarter is estimated at 30.7 million a day.
Disruptions in the North Sea, North and South America and Yemen prompted the IEA to reduce its forecast for non-OPEC production in 2011 by 400,000 barrels a day to 53.3 million a day. That means supply from outside OPEC will expand by 560,000 barrels a day this year, or about half the amount of 2010.
The IEA is an adviser on energy policy to 28 nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Oil stockpiles held by companies in OECD nations jumped by 34.5 million barrels to 2.67 billion in April, the agency said. That is equivalent to 59.1 days worth of consumption.
OPEC to Cut Supply on Slower Asian Demand, Oil Movements Says
By Grant Smith - Jun 30, 2011 11:30 AM ET
...
OPEC will cut oil shipments through to the middle of July as Asian refiners reduce imports while conducting seasonal maintenance work, according to tanker- tracker Oil Movements.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will ship 22.7 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 16, down 0.7 percent from the period to June 18, the consultant said in a report. The data, which excludes Ecuador and Angola, does not reflect any change in OPEC output in response to the International Energy Agency’s release of emergency stockpiles, Oil Movements said.
“Demand is diminished relative to what might have been expected and it’s mainly happening in the east,” Roy Mason, the founder of Oil Movements, said by telephone from Halifax, England. “They’re getting towards the peak of the maintenance season in the east, so it may be a temporary lull.”
The Paris-based International Energy Agency, an adviser to 28 oil-consuming nations, said June 23 its members will offer 60 million barrels of oil, the first deployment of strategic stockpiles in five years, after OPEC failed on June 8 to announce a plan on making up for halted Libyan exports. Saudi Arabia pledged that day to keep consumers supplied in the absence of an OPEC accord.
Shipments from Middle Eastern producers, including non-OPEC members Oman and Yemen, will drop 0.9 percent to 17.44 million barrels a day in the period, the report showed.
Crude on board tankers will average 485.44 million barrels in the four weeks, down 0.8 percent from 489.41 million barrels in the period to June 18, Oil Movements said.
Oil Movements calculates shipments by keeping a tally of tanker-rental agreements. Its figures exclude crude held on board ships as floating storage.
OPEC’s members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the group’s quota system.
6/6/11 IPE @ .51527
5/1/11 IPE @ .28845
OPEC Keeps Lid on Oil Production Targets
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: June 8, 2011
VIENNA (AP) — OPEC decided on Wednesday to maintain its crude oil output levels and meet again within three months to discuss a possible production increase.
The decision was unexpected and reflected unusual tensions in an organization that usually works by consensus.
Saudi Arabia and other influential oil-producing nations had pushed to increase production ceilings to calm markets and ease concerns that crude was overpriced for consumer nations struggling with their economies.
Those opposed were led by Iran, the second-strongest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
OPEC’s secretary general, Abdullah al-Badri, told reporters: “We are unable to reach consensus” to raise production.
The 11 OPEC members under production quotas are already exceeding them. Their output is an estimated 26.15 million barrels daily — about 1.3 million barrels above the daily overall OPEC production target of 24.85 million barrels a day agreed two years ago.
Iran and Venezuela came to the meeting opposing any move to increase output, which would have probably lowered prices for benchmark crude from the present levels of around $100 a barrel.
But OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which favors prices of around $80 a barrel, wanted higher production levels — and served notice that it was prepared to raise production unilaterally, to close to 10 million barrels a day from its present daily production of about 8.7 million barrels.
In advance of the meeting, Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, the oil minister for the United Arab Emirates, spoke of “tight” supplies. He added, “If there is a need for more oil, we will supply more oil.” Qatar’s energy minister, Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, was more unequivocal, saying outright that he backed an output level increase.
Ehsan Ul-Haq, an analyst with KBC Energy Economics, noted the clout the Saudis have within OPEC, saying that if they want more oil on the market, they “don’t need the Iranians, they don’t need the Venezuelans, they can do it alone.”
OPEC oil ministers faced a particularly complex mix of geopolitical and market tensions in their decision Wednesday.
Unrest in Libya and Yemen threatens to destabilize larger oil-producing nations in the region. Those two countries normally produce less than 4 percent of the world’s oil needs, and Saudi Arabia and others have raised output to make up for much of the shortfall. But worries that the violence could spread to bigger producers and seriously cut into world output has caused jitters, both from crude exporting nations and from the United States, China and other consumers with huge energy needs.
The shaky state of the global economy is also causing worries.
Weak housing and employment reports from the United States added to the gloom spread by Europe’s attempts to bail out governments and Japan’s nuclear disaster at the Fukushima power plant. At its present price of around $100 a barrel, benchmark crude may be too expensive for nations struggling to make ends meet, worsening the economic picture and leading to less oil demand.
But with sputtering economies using less energy, raising output to lower prices could also flood the market, leading to a surplus that could drive prices below $80 a barrel. Even that benchmark, which was preferred by the Saudis and other moderate OPEC members, is considered too low by Iran and Venezuela.
Tuesday’s sober assessment of the United States economy from the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, added to concerns, especially as the central banker failed to indicate that more monetary stimulus was likely.
OPEC’s president, Mohammad Aliabadi of Iran, spoke of a “nervous six months for the oil market.”
Wick, That has been the history of this stock. But meanwhile, I think they continue to buy properties with cash from the ISP biz. Who knows how long that will bring in the cash.
I wonder if they plan on flipping or renting?
I think the US is not going to fail. If the faith in the Euro begins to decrease, then maybe the world will do the same as you, Buy T bills. But first, they buy dollars to buy T-bills and dollar goes up.
My Vent, I think the market is rigged too. It seems too many insiders get away and never get caught. Some $60K/yr salary government sap regulating a millionaire.
Senators pressure Obama administration to crack down on oil speculators
Posted by Lauren French on May 26, 2011 at 9:15 pm
Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., criticized federal regulators Thursday for a “lack of urgency” to halt speculation despite mounting evidence suggesting oil speculation is driving up the cost of gasoline.
Sen. Maria Cantwell listens as Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill on Thursday, following a meeting on oil price speculation. (Harry Hamburg/Associated Press)
The two senators met with Commodity Future Trading Commission chair Gary Gensler in a closed meeting Thursday to discuss what steps the regulatory agency will take to halt oil speculation. Sanders exited the meeting unimpressed, he said, over the priority Gensler is giving the matter.
“I was disappointed by the tone of the meeting,” Sanders said, adding that the chairman showed a “lack of urgency” to address energy speculation. “We need action and we need action now.”
Cantwell threatened congressional action if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission fails curb oil speculation. She declined to say what Congress would do to the regulatory agency but said it could be similar to when lawmakers demanded the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission create a market monitoring and mitigation program when Enron, the Houston energy-trading firm, collapsed a decade ago.
A spokesperson for the commission did not return a request for comment.
The Wall Street financial regulation law enacted last summer required the CFTC to restrict the amount of oil that speculators could trade on the energy futures market. The commission failed to meet the Jan. 22 deadline the law required, a point of criticism against the agency by Cantwell. She said the commission should already have a plan to combat the rising costs of oil and gasoline.
“America is running out of gas partly because of high fuel costs,” she said. “The CFTC needs to do something about that. There should be even more urgency to act.”
The CFTC charged several oil traders Tuesday with allegedly manipulating prices in the crude oil market from January to April in 2008. The companies involved in the cross-market trading scheme earned more than $50 million in illegal profits, the commission said.
Sanders said this progress is good but too slow. Americans, he added, do not want to wait three years for speculators who are driving up costs today to be charged.
“What the American people want is action now,” he said. “They want prices down now, not three years from now.’’
Lawmakers have been pressuring the commission for action as the price for a barrel of crude oil hovers in the $100 range. A bipartisan group of 17 senators called on federal regulators this month to fast-track rules that would rein in speculation in West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures.
In response to the senators’ letter, Gensler said Monday the commission would make a final rule after reviewing the 12,000 comments the agency received after proposing position limits on 28 commodities in January.
The supply of crude oil in the U.S. is higher than it was two years ago. That, coupled with a decrease in demand, means the price of crude should be falling, Sanders said. While testifying in front of the Senate Finance Committee earlier this month, the CEO of Exxon Mobil stopped short of blaming speculators for high oil prices but said if based only on the laws of supply and demand, crude oil would be between $60 to $70 a barrel. A U.S. Energy Department report Wednesday said a barrel of crude oil costs just more than $100.
The CFTC bucked suggestions in 2008 that oil speculation was driving up market costs. In a report the agency said it “does not support the proposition that speculative activity has systematically driven changes in oil prices.” The agency said then that the price of crude oil_over $140 a barrel at the time — was due to market supply and demand
Forgot I had this board
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The gravity-defying euro may be finally set to return to earth.
With the currency on Monday dipping below $1.40 for the first time since March, a worsening sovereign-debt crisis, a faltering global economy and a general positioning reversal in foreign-exchange markets may conspire to bring the European currency down.
The next stop for the euro is more likely $1.35 than $1.45, some analysts said. At very least, few market participants are ready to say this is a buying opportunity, unlike what similar pullbacks induced earlier in the year.
"I could see it easily trading down to $1.35 this week," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn. The common currency was most recently at $1.4051, according to EBS via CQG. It appears to have found some support around $1.40, which is just above the 100-day moving average.
Jens Nordvig, head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura Securities in New York, said trend-following hedge funds "definitely got caught" by the euro's quick fall. Most have squared their positions now, but some "still have some euro longs that could get washed out."
Nordvig said $1.30 probably isn't a possibility for the short term, but the euro is facing some additional downward pressure.
A further drop could come as more hedge funds and speculative investors unwind pro-euro bets. These have been cut rapidly, according to CFTC data. Long euro positions fell to $7.4 billion as of May 17, down from $18.4 billion two weeks earlier and have probably shrunk further.
Win Thin, global head of emerging-markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, noted that Asian reserve managers were buying the euro earlier this year as it was quickly rising and thus got caught on the wrong end of the common currency's recent retreat.
Analysts said there is no rush for investors to jump back into the market right now, even with levels well off their peaks for the year. This is because the negative euro news continues to pile up without an end in sight.
"We're turning back the clock a whole year and nothing's changed," Interactive Brokers Wilkinson said. The same major problems that plagued the euro last spring are back at the forefront this spring.
Sovereign-debt issues are the biggest worry for traders right now. Greece looks as if it needs a debt restructuring to avoid default and euro-zone leaders appear ready to negotiate such a deal. But the European Central Bank has said it might not accept Greek debt as collateral if such a move occurs, putting a re-write of the debt in doubt.
A restructuring for Greece, on which Fitch Ratings cut its rating by three notches Friday, could push Ireland and Portugal to ask for more favorable terms on their bailouts as well, analysts said. Such a move throws more uncertainty into the situation.
The debt crisis is showing signs of spreading as well. Spain, Italy and Belgium are now in focus after local Spanish elections over the weekend struck a blow to the ruling party and possibly its ability to cut budget deficits, while outlooks on Italian and Belgian debt were cut by Standard & Poor's and Fitch, respectively.
"Can they ring-fence Spain and Italy" to help avoid debt problems exploding in those countries and forcing them to be bailed out as well still remains a big question, said BBH's Thin. Europe is "on a knife edge right now," Thin added.
The euro is also being hurt by weakening economic data around the globe, which has tamped down expectations for worldwide growth. China's purchasing-managers index hit a 10-month low as growth slows in that country. A reading on the euro zone's private sector hit a seven-month low, led by a slowdown in manufacturing.
If data continue to disappoint, it could reduce expectations for ECB raising rates multiple times during the rest of the year as has been market participants' assumption in recent months. The widening interest-rate differential between Europe's central bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve had been the primary reason for the euro's big rally during most of the year.
That one is not Sitestar's. It's FREs.
121 WHISPERING PINES CT
Here's a couple
Parcel ID Owner Num Suffix Street Unit Neigh # Property Class Year Built Tot Fin Sq Feet Acres Sale Date Sale Amount
| 02106009 SITESTAR CORPORATION TRS 1510 RIVERMONT AVE 248 RESIDENTIAL - SINGLE FAMILY 1905 3864 0.584 4/28/2011 $64,001
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1510-Rivermont-Ave-Lynchburg-VA-24503/79150351_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-bubble-address}
| 03704031 SITESTAR CORPORATION TRS 3820 MANTON LN 204 RESIDENTIAL - SINGLE FAMILY 1973 3443 0 11/19/2010 $231,000
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3820-Manton-Ln-Lynchburg-VA-24503/79159738_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-bubble-photos}
Julie E Erhartic (Ivy Hill Realty, Inc.)
maybe this one?
http://www.padmapper.com/show.php?type=0&id=71379808&src=main
Good! no pets
Let's get'r rented!
It was so easy to get a loan and that makes for it easy to Over inflate prices. Heck, I had one loan officer wanting to refi my loan 120%. It was nuts! You have a high credit score no need to provide any additional docs. A true bubble.
I see the same going on with college loans right now and that being the problem causing the high cost of college. They have a bunch of non-business people running colleges spending on all kinds of stupid stuff. Now, anybody can get a student loan. The government then owns these kids... for years and years. No getting out of that loan. Increases the cost of college. What a sin.
Thanks Littlejohn,
I'll say this, it seems like that acquisition never really got the revenues as expected. SYTE is not paying US. I think US tried to scam FRE, but he holds the power. Only half was paid.
And the only real note they owe is from that US.
Cash toward the properties
2010 $515,202
2011 $862,970
Total = $1,378,172
What the heck is a DEFERRED TAX ASSET? A million bucks? wow.
Hey littlejohn...
Do a find search when the docs are open Edit, Find on this page 900,615
This was the contract
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096934/000114420407060946/v093535_ex10-1.htm
2011 1stQ 10Q
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096934/000114420411029133/v222511_10q.htm
You can search atll the 10K's. http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001096934
My though is once they bought it, it wasn't what they bought. Who knows since FRE hasn't said.
Anyway, I think SYTE is a good buy at around 1.5. He may get it back to 7
Humm I wonder why they quit paying USA Telephone the money they owe? 900,615 big ones.. It should have been paid off at year end.
Must be some sort of disagreement. Kinda looks like they quit paying in 2009.
Looks like a fight to me.
Daytraders? Humm Maybe today on profit taking perhaps.. but yesterday? I have no doubt dash got caught by surprise.. LOL
I have no idea what the heck FRE bought. I guess I could call him.
FRE sure is a scrapper.
I'm pissed cause I was gonna try and pick a few up at under a penny when I saw it go that low. My father still holds a bit.
Cash flow has always been FRE's thing. Always good.
I think he sold in this up tick and still selling
you don't think?
He started with 10 mil and last 4 says 5 mil.
I guess he will need to file again? Right maybe not now he's under the %.
Who has the kind of volume to sell? Dandi? lol
One thing is for sure. FRE is not selling!
Dash needs to dash.
I bet he dumped and is happy.