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If you recall, effin Harvey went on CNBC and it was as if the stock had an anvil around it's neck.
Nasdaq lost 1k in a week. Welcome to the ugly side of margin.
No offense guy, but if you had an investment that is up 400% and your not considering the exit, then you would be a fool. Sorry to be so harsh, but let's be realistic. This is biotech. Worse yet, it's oncology. Dew posted a statistic on BV that 4% of all cancer drugs make it. I don't like all the giddiness these days. Stock is up big and that's fantastic! You are pumping a little too hard IMO. I lost a lot of money years ago (IN ARIAD NO LESS) for this exact reason. And I'm willing to wager that I have a lot more shares than you do, so I'm a big fan.
Easy now pal. That's a touchy subject with me. I am the poster child for those foolish. I was a young, eager and idiotic trader who turned a 10k investment into a 275k gain in a month. Only to turn it back into a 70k REAL loss! I didn't trade for 9 years after that one.
My grandpa used to say: "A fool and his money are soon parted." No truer words have ever been spoken.
EDIT: I bought back when the sold their genomics center @ .50, so it wasn't a month.
FWIW, this is no "start-up" biotech company. They have been meandering around for 20 years.
Agreed. I for one am relieved. Anything 10% or less would be fine with me. Re-charge the batteries for the next move.
JQ
At what point would you no longer consider Pona "high" risk? IMO Berger is not selling anytime soon, but that doesn't prevent someone from making a hostile offer.
Thanks
Did you notice the puts as well? I am pretty sure there is a marriage there.
You sure about that? That's a long way to go back for resistance, no? I just think it needs a breath. $5.50-$8.50 is a huge move in what, 3 weeks?
I am going to have to agree that opinion. $10+ I prob have to shed 15-20% myself. It would be a little piggish to not sell after quadrupling in value. It's prob a little piggish that I haven't sold any already.
Oink Oink!!!!
Care to expand on your doubt?
I would rather take a shot buying puts on a spike rather than sell the common. Don's list of catalysts is pretty much my belief as well as some other extreme possibilities.
I would hate to sell my initial shares (after having held for almost 2 years), only to have something drive the pps up way higher while I'm standing on the sidelines waiting for a lower entry. Also, I'm sure many here are now in the long term capital gains rate with most of our positions. Selling resets the clock. Should the pps shoot up in the next 12 months and you wan't to sell, you will be paying some pretty substantial taxes.
"You think too much of me kid, I'm not that clever" - Virgil "The Turk" Sollozzo
Should the Rida OS data come back unfavorable, we might see MRK make their "opportunistic" bid for Aria.
If I remember correctly, after TNFerade failed, they put out a PR saying they were hiring a firm to evaluate their options for a buyout or something like that. I'm guessing there weren't too many takers, huh?
Have you (or anyone else with a big position) considered buying puts? I have considered it should we get a pop, but it has been a nice "melt up". Anyone else thinking this way?
I think Ziop (300 mil market cap) might also be more of a value than Aria right now. I am loaded with several other bio's for what I believe will be a nice "Asco" run. It's a good time for biotech, it won't last forever. Most of them are up nicely and I will sell all of them except for Ariad sometime before Asco. BTH great day for Cris, thanks for the heads up.
BTW, we are due for a pullback. Just by gauging the level of giddiness around the message boards these last couple of weeks, I would say it should be soon. Look the chart, it is screaming for a pullback. Let's not start slapping each other on the backside just yet. We still have a ways to go till the promised land.
I'm not a hard core technician, but there seems to be a definite pattern of pull-backs when the RSI goes above 80 (that's true for almost all stocks so I am not saying anything shocking here). I am not trading Aria, it's my core holding so it doesn't really matter to me. I think a pullback to the 7.50 area should do the trick (and would be healthy). I may be wrong, but that's just my feeling having watched this company for a long time.
There are others here who could give a better answer. That's why I posted, to get a little feedback.
FWIW, I am staying long into what I believe will be a nice run pre NDA for Pona. I am thinking $20 is reasonable by that time (hopefully a little more than 1 year from today).
GLTA
Fellow pom-pom waivers,
FWIW, both RSI and MFI are getting pretty toppy. Historically Aria sells off when the RSI gets above 80. Perhaps another up day on Mon, but Tues may be setting up for a bit of a technical correction post AACR release.
Any thoughts? We need another topic, a little too quiet around here the last few days.
I registered for the Leerink Swann conf in NYC on Thurs. Didn't seem to have any issues. Anyone else considering going?
Absolutely, we could be sitting on a powder keg here. Are you concerned with the Rida data @ Asco?
Exactly what I was getting at last night.
We should be so lucky. Hey Harv, if you are reading this board and you are looking to employ the same tactics as Ceph, (buy up some money losing corps with not many prospects) you are more than welcome to make a bid for my general contracting company. We definitely fit that description these days!
BTH, are those responses your handy work on Motley Fool?
It's actually remarkable. The incompetence of the idiots that report on these companies never ceases to amaze me. If these imbeciles would like to learn something about Ariad (or any other bio), they should start reading this board and bio values. The poster's here are a lot more qualified than they are.
BTW, I found Harv's we are not for sale comment a little odd. I wish I knew in what context it was said. What do you make of it?
I wouldn't hold my breath for Pona early approval. Most importantly, let's cross our fingers for good Rida OS data @ Asco. That would signify an "all clear" and the pps will be off to the races IMO.
FWIW, I think we will have a 10 mil offering somewhere after Asco and before the end of the year. My hope it is in the ballpark of $10+ and not before.
Quick ?
Where do we see PPS should the OS #'s come back unfavorable?
To me this had the feel of the Harv sticking his finger in Mrk's eye. Maybe he's not thrilled with Mrk's silence on the rida NDA.
Just a little speculation, after all what else better we have to do on this board?
BTW, pretty much constant buying all day so far.
For the most part, I agree. Just thought we might see a little more buying after the approval. Could you imagine what the pps would have been if it had not been approved?
Anyone else surprised with HGSI pps? I know it was mostly baked in the cake but come on now.
You think NVS would mind if Aria trademarked "Super Gleevec" for Pona? ;)
Did you even read the posted court docs?
Do we see any potential liability here for Aria?
Even tough I think the likelihood of Benlysta getting approved is high, the better risk/reward is on the short side if you ask me. I will watch happily from the sidelines and root for those who suffer from Lupus to have finally have another viable option.
HGSI'rs have been talking about GSK buying them out almost as long as I have been talking about MRK buying ARIA! :)
OB, what is going on with AMRN???? It is trading horribly these days.
oldberk
I was doing some DD on AMRN, and I came across a YMB post that claimed you were a notorious shorter and not to be believed. LOL
FYI, I added to my AMRN position AH on Friday. I agree with your opinion about it being attractive here.
Perhaps that is why it down these days but that is complete speculation on your part. Almost all my bio's are down and sideways these days. Most of them have pulled back from their recent highs (including Cris). I am not nearly as down on Ariad as you.
Surprised/disappointed at the sharp pullback after Succeed? Yes.
Running around daily screaming: "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"! NO!
I just hope it stays at these levels so I don't have to deal with any margin calls.
Post that over on BV for mcbio and Dew.
Touche
I can think of one.
Hint: It's owner's name rhymes with Lariad. LOL
You won't catch me selling a single share at $65. That's because they would have all been sold a long time before that!
Another ridiculously volatile day in the life of lil ole Aria. This stock is going to kill me yet.
6 mil shares traded and hardly any option action today
Anyone else finding AMRN attractive at this price?
Yo, how do we know someone hasn't inquired? Maybe I am being naive, but does that sort of thing have to be public knowledge? Are you talking about a formal bid? I wonder the same thing every once in a while.
Btw, you are a long time follower of this company from the old YMB days, no?
How about where he called Ziop's lead drug "a rounding error".
Earlier I called him a newer version of Al Mann. Perhaps I could have chosen a better comparison. Ole Al never struck me as the swashbuckling type.
Al via Wikipedia: "When my success exceeded my expectations, I began to think of a way to return to society what it has given to me."