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I don't believe that we have seen any substantial short covering yet. The 4,000,000 share day was more likely longs adding to their positions in response to the Tullow negotiations or new HDY investors that are getting a super bargain at .85 rather than aggressive short covering.
When the short covering occurs, I expect the PPS to surge well above 1.00 as no HDY longs will be seling shares below this pps. This rise to .93 was just the start of things to come.
GLTA.
TOB - I like this post of yours from Yahoo. I hope you don't mind me putting it here - it is spot on imo. Thanks!
"The news that Tullow is in exclusive negotiations for HDY is a game changer.
HDY management has made mistakes in the past, but they are water over the dam if a competent operator like Tullow takes over the concession.
I am changing my sentiment to "Strong Buy" and I have gone long HDY.
Previously I would only consider a short bet because of the
Smart people can now see that HDY will have another strong rally from the current low share-price. If Tullow is confirmed as operator, then it is off to the races for the share price.decline and the screw ups. I'm sorry for those who bought in too high and held through the decline.
Just the fact that Tullow is interested in this geology is extremely bullish. Signing any JV will give a big boost to the HDY share price. Signing Tullow may see all time highs.
Sentiment: Strong Buy"
Indeed. It seems as though relentlessly shorting HDY to hold it below .75 for so long was a mistake by the shorts - and the worst for them is yet to come.
GLTA.
The market is underestimating HDY and Tullow simultaneuosly. The pps should already be North of 1.00 given Tullow's track record and the existence of the bid. The credibility Tullow brings to the table tells me that the data looks great. HDY is probably a steal at these prices. The original farmout PR took HDY to 1.30. Soon enough, we will be there and beyond, again.
GLTA.
Well isn't this nice!
I think the sell at .77 was more shorting in an attempt to stifle the rally.
OOPS. It didn't work.
GLTA!
Thoughts from a friendly ghost:
1) The data must be good. Tullow would not be the lead bidder unless this was the case.
2) I smell numerous PRs coming. The substance of these PRs will likely outline the following - contract finalization, 3D update (that is undoubtedly good or great), and perhaps anticipated drilling dates. If they announce that 2 wells will be drilled simultaneously - LOOK OUT ABOVE!
3) The Bank of America PR from the Spring that initially announced the farmout drove the pps to 1.30. What will this potential Tullow deal do? 1.50-1.75+? I don't believe RL would have even announced the current negotiations if it wasn't as good as done (or close to it).
4) Short covering alone may drive HDY above 1.00 by Friday. (I like this thought of mine the best.) :)
I slept rather well last night, perhaps the shorts did not.
Turnabout sucks, doesn't it?
GLTA.
Great news. I should apologize more often. LOL.
GLTA.
Thanks for your answers Rule. I was actually asking those quesions in angry, sarcastic disgust and didn't expect anyone to answer me. I know that when a poster is negative on a stock excessively it can annoy others. While I don't want to annoy anyone here, I sometimes rant and vent. JS490 mentioned that at .66 we need to rise 50% to see 1.00. This concerns me, unless of course we get a partner which imo should increase the HDY company valuation to around 1.50 overnight.
Things very well could get exciting by the middle of November - and maybe even this week if Chevron is one of the eight and are also the one that will become the JV. Many things do point to Chevron.
Have a good week everyone.
GLTA.
Where is the 3D update?
Where is the $10 million?
Where is HDY in the JV partnership process?
Where is Ray Leonard?
When is the next CC?
Eternal silence (like before the dry well announcement) is a very bad sign from HDY.
Lots of questions, damn few answers - and a reverse split means the end. Plain and simple.
Ray said "this this will not end well for the shorts." Well, without a JV, he will be a confirmed fraud and liar imo.
Tick tock.
Thanks to Spetty:
"Keep your eye on the prize
We as shareholders of HDY are part owners of the largest concession in the hottest new region of oil discoveries in the world. We own part of Saudi Arabia before it was Saudi Arabia. We have a Netherland Sewell report in hand that estimates billions of barrels of oil. The new 3D confirms additional prospects above and beyond the initial billions of barrels of oil estimates from Netherland Sewell's initial report. The "conjugate" (which to my way of thinking the best way to explain it is if you took our concession and created a mirror image, much like folding a piece of paper in half) has already produced huge discoveries, which means it's only logical that we will produce "mirror-like results", i.e. similar huge discoveries.
IMO we're very close to the market realizing the potential of this concession. I think that the 8 oil companies (all of whom wanted to farm in on this deal) understand the magnitude of what they're presented with, and even though the market punished HDY's share price for a single non-commercial well in the shallow water, the industry experts were actually encouraged by the results as it gave them validation that there is a working petroleum system within our concession. Ray has unequivocally stated as much. I think we could be in for a pleasant surprise once this bidding process is concluded. Though the Sabu well didn't give us what we were looking for in the short-term, it provided validation of what we're sitting on.
One thing I think we can all be extremely confident of is that there is a substantial amount of oil within this concession we own the rights to. Let's be conservative and say there is a total of 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil and we own 37% of that. That's 370 million barrels. At $5/barrel that values the company at $1.85 BILLION. Our current enterprise value (market cap + cash -debt) is only $77 million. To get to even $1.5 billion it's a 20 bagger from here. Does anyone here actually believe that what we're sitting on is worth less than $77 million? To me it's unfathomable.
Guys, a lot of you have been in this stock for 7-10 years waiting for what's about to happen. I can honestly say that the disconnect between the value of the concession and the current enterprise value of this company represents the single-best risk-reward proposition I've ever seen in my time in the market. It's very possible that we may see one last major shake. Anyone with an iota of common sense can see how severely undervalued this stock is and what a great opportunity it represents, and there's a good chance that they're going to try to get as big a chunk of this as they can for as cheap as they can before the deal is announced, and they may well use some dirty tactics to do that. Don't fall victim to it. Rely on your DD and remember what you own. We're on the precipice guys, don't let them shake you. What you've been waiting for for all these years is about to come to fruition, so get your popcorn and hang onto your stubs real tight.
Keep your eye on the prize guys, and while we may all have different opinions of what the ultimate prize will be, I can virtually guarantee you that it'll be multiples of our current $77 million enterprise value......."
I have said before that if the company announces a JV that will simultaneously drill 2 wells from the get go (to be completed by the end of 2013 or 1Q 2014) the HDY pps will rightly recover nicely. The better the repuation and resources of the major that signs the JV with HDY the better.
IMO, everything depends on the JV partner repuation more than RL - he has already blown it so many times, it seems to me that having faith that we are getting a partner and then having faith that that partner will get things done is what shareholders need to be doing right now. Hopefully the JV will make Ray well aware that THEY will be running the show. (At least I hope so.)
One thing I am certain of - when RL announces the date of the next CC, the pps should rebound to .80 very quickly in anticipation of the coming CC news. But this time, depending on the substance of the CC news, the pps either goes well above a dollar or well below .62. Many shareholders (including myself) are getting tired of the continual HDY pps decline and Ray Leaonards UNDERPERFORMANCE. He is overdue for a right decision and the accomplishment of a company milestone.
Tick tock.
Sorry if I am mistaken about the need for 2 more wells by the end of 2013.
Let's see. HDY is trading like garbage and we still have tax loss selling season to look forward to. Thanks Ray! On the eve of a potential JV deal the pps is declining and declining?
This trading pattern resembles way the pps fell and fell prior to the dry hole announcement.
If no JV is reached, I sadly expect to see a pps of around .20 followed by a 10:1 reverse split and then enormous dilution to raise the $100 million (or more) to drill just one well. And don't forget that we need 2 wells to be drilled next year according to the terms of the concession. The current sharecount is 167,000,000 shares. With no JV and imminent dilution, a new sharecount equilvalent to 334,000,000 shares is probably unavoidable.
Ray - Do you still say Sabu-1 was not a debacle?
I welcome a JV partnership, but it sure as hell seems like...
RL better get his head out of his arse crack and do something right.
Despite all of the insider buys, HDY is trending down?!?!
WTF is going on?
We'll know soon - and a rude surprise won't shock me one bit - after the $10 million nonsense, anything goes with HDY.
What would really help the share price:
The announcment that the new JV will be launching a drilling program for two simultaneous wells to start no later than April 2013 in the absolute most promising areas of the entire concession (with estimates for these two wells alone totaling 5 billion barrels of oil).
We sure as hell deserve such an announcement.
Maybe the 750,000 shares that traded around .71 was short covering.
GLTA.
Between $4 and $5.
GLTA.
I think there is a good chance the market cap for the company may become in excess of $750,000,000 when the deal is signed. The expertise of a major (who willingly and knowingly signs a deal) probably means that the chances of discovering oil at some point are far better than 50%.
86,500 shares here.
GLTA.
I'm looking forward to a day by the end of this year when the pps rises significantly and we can all say,
"SO THAT'S WHY RAY LEONARD EXERCISED SO MANY OPTIONS AND SPENT ALMOST $400,000 TO DO SO."
As it is, this .70-.80 stagnancy is annoying the fark out of me.
This is a bizarre situation. Our all time high of 7.78 happened when we didn't even have a drill in the water yet. Now, with evidence of oil in the concession and estimates of multiple BILLIONS of barrels of oil in the concession, our pps is presently down 91%. Add to that, 8 major oil companies are evaluating HDY data and the pps has no up days based on specualtion alone. It was the announcement of the CC that rebounded HDY to .80 territory - and Ray's substance at the same CC that disappointed the market and has pushed us back 10%.
I can't speak for anyone else, but this ridiculous valuation is getting quite tiresome.
GLTA.
Thanks. Unfortunately, as good as it all sounds, down we go.
I'm not listening to the CC, but we're trading at .74.
Great farking job Ray!
Interesting scenario here:
We got an independent mentioning in a PR yesterday about possible earnings and RL added another 250,000 shares which brings him to 1,250,000 shares. Conceivably, there was buying yesterday hoping for a good CC and based upon the independent article.
Some posters believe that the timing of Ray's purchase implies less than stellar news in the CC.
Come 11:00AM today, we will see if something has developed that pushes the HDY pps closer to $30.00 (his personal target). If so, great! It's about time. If not, I will wonder why he is adding so many shares when he has so little that is positive to say.
Tomorrow is going to be crucial. The company has been understandably silent for months. Hopefully the JV partnership/s are coming along and an update that a deal is near could send the pps to 1.10 or higher. Just the announcement of the CC sent us from .63 to .80ish ever since. Now we need AND DEMAND substance.
Conversely, if Ray is vague, negative, or just typical Ray, .80 may not been seen again until there is a discovery.
The coming CC on 9/18 better be great - and by GREAT I mean full of specifics that would make new investors jump into HDY. IMO, that CC will be shaping the pps for weeks to come upward or downward. It is up to Ray to do right by shareholders.
Thanks again Rule.
Rule62 - Do you mind cutting and pasting your IV post from 2:35PM today on this board. It is spot on.
Thanks.
I have to agree that Ray's unwillingness (for whatever reason) to explain where the $10 million went or how that multi-million deal failed, smells terribly of fraud REGARDLESS of how innocent the reality may be. And watching the pps trend down eternally in 2012 makes me far more angry about the whole situation than this post possibly hints at. The only problem with a $3 buyout is that many shareholders would still lose a fortune. A $5 buyout would be wonderful. And imo, tomorrow is fine. I'm tired of all of this waiting on Ray's silence. And as far as I am concerned, Ray already knows 100% of what the 9/18 CC will contain (and if it ain't good, .70 will look great from below).
Think about what I'm saying. He hasn't said a word since late June. He damn well better have something GREAT to say in 2 weeks, or we all suffer further.
GLTA.
My patience is thinning AGAIN.
Congratulations. And congratulations to us all when HDY swings upward steeply.
Thank you for clarifying that for me. I was unaware that Blackrock has major short interest in HDY. I know that some suspected Blackrock of shorting HDY well over a year ago. They were right.
If the shorting has come to a trickle now, perhaps Blackrock is already aware that HDY is not headed to zero.
The shorts don't profit until they cover. I have asked before, WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR? It seems to me that they should be up on nearly all of their position. They should have covered by now. Any good news and the stock may never go under 1.00 again. But even if they were able to cover the entire 18 million share short position right now all at 1.30 per share, I still think they would make a huge gain. Delay = greed = stupidity.
Their delay should be our fortune. TIA shorts!
GLTA.
Thanks indeed.
You raise an interesting question. I do not know the terms of their contract with ROG. But if they find commercial oil, I have to wonder how many years of extension they get. Otherwise, another company could try to deal with Guinea and take the concession away outright at the end of the fourth year. My hunch, based on all available information to date, is that they will continue with HDY when commercial oil is found because they approve of RL. Let's see if he can soon give shareholders something to approve of as well.
“Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it.”
This statement goes for stock scams like VMGI. Damn Veve!
"Any news is good news and a lot of the usual paid bears disappeared on Yahoo board."
Isn't it nice when the bears disappear?
Well, between the promise of news in the upcoming September CC and this new September presentation, we are back at .80. I can only imagine what the actual news of substance before or on those two coming September dates will bring our pps to.
I knew I should have followed the mindless herd and sold below .64.
Congratulations longs. Our day is coming ever closer.
GLTA.