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Sold ACAD at $31.95 at the end of the day. Too low as the after-market bid is $32.00.
ACAD
Back in ACAD @ $30.90 today. Baker Bros 5th largest position. Buyout target.
http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/baker-bros-advisors-lp-596248
Can't see it going much lower:
ACAD
Isn't the next Dept of Ag crop report due Sept 9th?
I'm thinking there might be some movement into that date given it is now oversold by almost all indicators.
I'm still sitting on a lower and hopefully safe bid each day.
CORN
I'm with you. Sitting on $18.10 hoping to snag a dip. No hurry to buy. Previously was sitting at $18.30. Glad I waited.
CORN
Also been bid sitting for awhile. Looks like more downside, but can't see too much more. I'm not knowledgeable about corn so merely a chart play since there is so little news.
I'm sure you've seen the SA article. If not here it is, without about a dozen charts and graphs, together with comments.:
_______________________________________________
Corn Market Is Likely To Rally
Aug. 21, 2016 7:34 AM ET|10 comments | About: Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Oleh Kombaiev Oleh KombaievFollow(212 followers)
Summary
The U.S. corn yield forecast at the level of 175.1 bushels per acre is probably too optimistic.
The incident that took place in 2010/11 reminds that substantial deterioration in conditions for corn crops is possible in the following 3 months.
The forecast indicates a high probability of drought formation in key U.S. corn producing regions.
According to current USDA forecast, the U.S. corn yield in 2016/17 will reach a record level of 175.1 bushels per acre. This factor, as I showed earlier, was the main reason for corn futures price reaching a seven-year low in the beginning of this month.
A strange thing is happening: record crop has not yet been harvested but the market has already dropped, although there's still enough time for the weather to cause corn yield reduction in the United States. In my opinion, this could potentially lead to the corn market rally in the nearest future.
The August corn yield forecast, published by the USDA, is more trustworthy, but as history shows, the situation may still change drastically.
The 2010/11 marketing year in the United States is a great example. In June that year, the USDA assessed the final U.S. harvest at the level of 163.5 bushels per acre. In August 2011, the USDA raised its corn yield forecast for 2010/11 to 165 bushels per acre. However, as a result of the prevailing dry weather in key corn growing regions at that time, the final yield fell below 153 bushels per acre, i.e. reduced by more than 7%.
Source of data: USDA
A similar scenario, in my opinion, could likely repeat in the current year.
The key corn producing regions in the United States are West/North Central Iowa and East Central Illinois. You should pay particular attention to these states, analyzing the following weather change maps.
Here is a U.S. drought map provided by the United States Drought Monitor on June 14, 2016 - the date the USDA published its first official U.S. corn yield forecast for 2016/17:
And here's a similar map from August 16 (four days after the publication of the USDA August forecast):
Note that the drought on the border of Wyoming and South Dakota has intensified and expanded. The key corn producing regions are outside the risk area so far, however, the deterioration trend exists.
The next weather forecasts also do not give grounds to believe that the situation will start to improve.
Here is the weather forecast map for the next 30 days from AccuWeather.com:
Source: AccuWeather.com
And here's the forecast until August 23 from the National Weather Service:
Source: National Weather Service
The last map clearly shows that the area of increased temperature shifts towards Iowa - the key U.S. corn producing region.
It is worth noting that the latest assessment of the corn crops condition, performed by the USDA, pointed to a decline in the proportion of crops rated "good" and "excellent". Perhaps this is the first sign of deterioration.
Source of data: USDA
Conclusion
I would like to emphasize once again that the record rates of the U.S. corn exports maintain the price stability. However, in my opinion, the market totally ignores real weather risks that have all chances to materialize.
On August 22, the USDA will publish its regular review of the condition of corn crops in the United States. In my opinion, in case if the condition of corn crops continues to deteriorate, there will be good reasons for opening a long position in this market.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in CORN over the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Comments (10) Track new comments
redbaron
Comments (925) |+ Follow |Send Message
There are several reasons the crop estimate continues to go up for this current crop year. 1) Rainfall in the major corn growing regions has been plentiful, and most of the crop is in optimal condition. 2) After the drought in 2015 that negatively affected yields, drought resistant varieties were developed, with shorter maturity times. 3) Growing conditions have been optimal, resulting in the crop maturing faster this year. Some farmers in the center of the corn belt are now reporting that the harvest will be earlier this year, with the ear drying while the stem is still green, a situation rarely seen by growers. 4) The June crop report map pictured above, shows drought area in the 3 state area of W. Central IL, SE Iowa, and NE MO, but that situation was temporary and resolved with rainfall shortly after that was published, and crops there are now superb. Generally, a bumper crop means lower prices, and that seems to be what is happening in our section of the corn belt. 5) USDA crop report maps now seem to support this view. 6) Generally, a bumper crop means lower prices, and that seems to be what is happening in our section of the corn belt. 5) USDA crop report maps now seem to support this view. 7) Not much corn grown in the drought area you note on the border of SD & Wyoming. Overall, we here in the corn belt see a larger crop and lower prices, so we disagree with the direction of your opinion. How do other growers see the situation? Our crop is already 'made', and it will be superb.
21 Aug 2016, 08:05 AM Report Abuse Reply 2 Like
dani_92_bdn
Comments (7) |+ Follow |Send Message
So maybe is good idea buy against the market? ( i dont know how to say in english when you buy a share thinking that the price will drop). Better info than a crop grower cant be given !
21 Aug 2016, 10:06 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
Oleh Kombaiev , Contributor
Comments (85) |+ Follow |Send Message
Author’s reply » Thanks. Very deeply. Let's see what is the market's next move
22 Aug 2016, 02:46 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
Faloh Investment , Contributor
Comments (160) |+ Follow |Send Message
Here you go, Dani_92_bdn. "buy CORN against the market" = "Short sell CORN; "Buy Put Option"
If this helps you, check out my articles sometime :)
22 Aug 2016, 04:23 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
TampaDirk
Comments (193) |+ Follow |Send Message
It just rained like 4 days straight from Nebraska to Minnesota and across the Midwest and the corn is already higher than my head
21 Aug 2016, 09:41 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
jacquek
Comments (2) |+ Follow |Send Message
Are you a basketball player? Iowa corn should have been 7' before the end of July - former Iowa farmgirl
21 Aug 2016, 11:54 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
faridul alam
Comments (2) |+ Follow |Send Message
Good prediction...
21 Aug 2016, 10:05 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
faridul alam
Comments (2) |+ Follow |Send Message
good prediction
21 Aug 2016, 10:00 PM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
Oleh Kombaiev , Contributor
Comments (85) |+ Follow |Send Message
Author’s reply » will see
22 Aug 2016, 03:29 AM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like
TampaDirk
Comments (193) |+ Follow |Send Message
These old time farmers got big time rich over the last few years off corn. Land is selling at crazy prices all over the Midwest, these new young farmers are trying to come in and profit also but the tides have turned and the young farmers will have to pay there dues with low prices until the next cycle which will be a long time and only a few dedicated farmers will survive and get rich like these did.
22 Aug 2016, 10:22 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like
chmcnfunds
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CORN
The TUBE bulls:
Pharm. D ?@Pharmdca 16m16 minutes ago
@AdamSinger @OphirGottlieb @WhiteCoatMafia ok adding $tube. ??
TUBE
Back in TUBE @ $9.25 but not necessarily long. Probably oversold today and overall as result of the downgrade.
Consensus Ratings for TubeMogul (NASDAQ:TUBE)
Ratings Breakdown: 4 Hold Ratings, 11 Buy Ratings
Consensus Rating: Buy (Score: 2.73)
Consensus Price Target: $16.40 (72.27% upside)
Analysts' Ratings History for TubeMogul (NASDAQ:TUBE)
Show:
Date Firm Action Rating Price Target Details
8/16/2016 First Analysis Downgrade Overweight -> Equal Weight $17.00 -> $11.00
_________________________________________
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TUBE/
TUBE
Radio One, Inc. Hosted 6th Annual The Blitz
NEW YORK, Aug. 17, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --
Radio One, Inc. hosted The Blitz last night at Stage 48 NYC. An exclusive invite-only event, this showcase is an opportunity for artists from multiple labels to perform their new music for an elite crowd of industry insiders and marketing executives.
Kent Jones_ The Blitz 2016
"This year, we had many talented new and emerging artists participate in The Blitz showcase. The lineup included Lloyd, Mila J., Kent Jones and Desiigner" said Jay Stevens, SVP Programming, Radio One. "It's always exciting to provide a platform for new content."
The Blitz serves as a major catalyst for launching music and artists. With enormous reach among Black America and Millennials across Radio, TV and Digital properties, Radio One, Inc. has a unique ability to drive exposure, build listenership, start trends and grow careers.
"The Blitz is always an incredible look at what's next in Music…this year was no exception."
The Blitz is also a great way to create alliances between brands and music influencers of tomorrow. Many brands have music-based initiatives and are looking to partner with new talent, the Blitz is just one of the many ways One Solution, Radio One, Inc.'s cross-platform brand solutions group, is able to achieve this goal for clients.
The Blitz showcase is an exceptional opportunity to share new work and behind the scenes exclusives with the Radio One, Inc. audience. "Our audience and our advertisers come to us for coverage of emerging trends in News, Culture and Entertainment. The Blitz is just another way for us to spark interest and conversation," said Detavio Samuels, President of One Solution.
Content from the Blitz including Red Carpet coverage, artist interviews and event recap footage is available online across Radio One, Inc. and Interactive One digital properties including GlobalGrind, HelloBeautiful, TVone.tv, and 50+ local radio station sites.
globalgrind.com/blitz
About Radio One, Inc.
Radio One, Inc. (radio-one.com), together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified media company that primarily targets African-American and urban consumers. It is one of the nation's largest radio broadcasting companies, currently owning and/or operating 56 stations in 16 urban markets in the United States. Through its controlling interest in Reach Media, Inc. (blackamericaweb.com), the Company also operates syndicated programming including the Tom Joyner Morning Show, the Russ Parr Morning Show, the Rickey Smiley Morning Show, Get up Morning! with Erica Campbell, the D.L. Hughley Show, Bishop T.D. Jakes' Empowering Moments, the Ed Lover Show, the Willie Moore Jr Show, the Nightly Spirit with Darlene McCoy and the Reverend Al Sharpton Show. Beyond its core radio broadcasting franchise, Radio One owns Interactive One (interactiveone.com), the fastest growing and definitive digital resource for Black Americans and Millennials, reaching millions each month through social content, news, information, and entertainment. Interactive One operates a number of branded sites including NewsOne (news), TheUrbanDaily (men), HelloBeautiful (women), GlobalGrind (Millennials) and social networking websites BlackPlanet. The Company also owns TV One, LLC (tvone.tv), a cable/satellite network programming serving more than 57 million households, offering a broad range of real-life and entertainment-focused original programming, classic series, movies and music designed to entertain, inform and inspire a diverse audience of adult Black viewers. Additionally, One Solution combines the dynamics of the Radio One's holdings to provide brands with an integrated and effectively engaging marketing approach that reaches 82% of Black Americans throughout the country.
About One Solution:
One Solution is the cross-platform sales and integrated marketing arm of Radio One, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROIA and ROIAK [radio-one.com]), combining the Company's radio, television and digital platforms with social media and live events to reach and engage with urban consumers. Launched in 2008, One Solution enables top-tier advertisers to build meaningful connections with Black Americans by utilizing the dynamics of Radio One's Radio, TV and Digital media properties.
Desiigner_The Blitz 2016
Radio_One___media_logos
Radio One, Inc. logo.
Photo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160817/398837
Photo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160817/398838
Photo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160817/398836
Logo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20090806/PH57529LOGO
To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/radio-one-inc-hosted-6th-annual-the-blitz-300314659.html
SOURCE Radio One
Copyright 2016 PR Newswire
_____________________________________________
ROIAK
It seems to be ongoing. Looks to me to be ~8000 more shares out during the quarter. Of course we are six weeks past the quarter end. Didn't find anything in the CC or the quarterly referencing the ATM.
In the past they have done an offering simultaneously with an ongoing ATM so you never know. They have to balance keeping their market cap for Nasdaq which currently is just above the $35M limit according to Finviz.
There were several mentions in the CC about how tight the finances currently are.
AEZS
Generally in the short term as the offering usually is at a discount to the pps at the end of the day prior to the offering. So need to watch for an increased pps so the company can maximize their return. The analyst's comments might have been an attempt to drive the share price up prior to an offering. If so, hasn't worked yet. Too many folks are jaded with this company.
AEZS
Was a crazy day. From the sidelines couldn't figure why the fluff PR (Aeterna Zentaris and Orient EuroPharma Co., Ltd. Sign Exclusive License Agreement for Zoptrex™ in Taiwan and Southeast Asia) resulted in such volume. AEZS does this about once a year and never seems to be any explanation. Lot of shares changed hands.
I'm anticipating an announced offering soon.
AEZS
(I have no shares)
AEZS
Two recent analyst's inputs:
"8/13/2016 Maxim Group Reiterated Rating Buy $11.00
8/11/2016 HC Wainwright Reiterated Rating Buy
4/4/2016 Canaccord Genuity Reiterated Rating Buy $13.00 -> $9.00"
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/AEZS/
Note who managed their last offering:
"Maxim Group LLC acted as sole book-running manager, and H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC acted as financial advisor to the Company in connection with the Offering."
I'd anticipate a new offering being worked on right now.
AEZS
Took a look at Dodd's conference call (quick but not intense look). A few statement stand out:
"Good morning and thank you for joining us. This is an exciting time for Aeterna Zentaris. We are approaching a major inflection point for our company as we expect to complete two pivotal Phase 3 studies during the coming months and report top-line results for the Macrilen confirmatory study prior to yearend.
Regarding Zoptrex, we expect to report top-line results in the first quarter 2017. I will say more about this later, but let me first provide a brief summary of our achievements during the second quarter.'
No imminent data unless a halt.
"We ended the quarter with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of approximately $26.2 million, however, our cash and cash equivalent at the end of June will not be sufficient to fund our operation for the 12-month period following such date. And as a result, our second quarter financial statement, contained a footnote, disclosing material uncertainties related to events and conditions that may cast substantial doubts about our ability to continue as a going concern for at least one year from June 30, 2016. We expect to address the situation before the end of the year." NOTE, they usually have $45-$50M. Going to be an offering.
Sure don't see any reason to rush in unless big drop and becomes badly oversold. Currently over-bought on CCI and Wm%(14):
(I have no shares)
AEZS
Hello. Of course bullish on AEZS. Aren't you -- isn't everybody?
Actually, made the post for the good of the very active board. No shares. Need to read the CC: carefully to glean any hints of when they are likely to raise money. I think it is too soon for a run-up into results especially with the over-hang of an offering. But when it begins and somebody begins to hype it there will be money to be made. Ultimately believe in the Feuerstein-Ratain rule and don't want to be in when the outcomes are announced.
You bullish, your take?
AEZS
BB acquires @ $33.00
Common Stock 8/10/2016 P 133153 A $33.00 3029953 I See Footnotes (2) (3) (5) (6)
Common Stock 8/10/2016 P 1169877 A $33.00 22337275 I
ACAD
FWIW:
Quote:
_____________________________________________________________
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2016/17 U.S. feed grain supplies are increased this month with
higher forecast corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production. Corn production is forecast at a
record 15.2 billion bushels, up 613 million from the July projection. The season’s first surveybased
corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is up 7.1 bushels from last month’s trendbased
projection and above the record 171.0 bushels in 2014/15. The Crop Production report
indicates that nearly all Corn Belt states, with the exception of Minnesota and South Dakota, are
forecast to have yields above a year ago. Sorghum production is forecast 55 million bushels
higher with the forecast yield 8.4 bushels per acre above last month’s projection.
WASDE-556-2
U.S. corn supplies for 2016/17 are projected at a record 16.9 billion bushels, up 1.5 billion from
the prior year with the larger crop and small increases in beginning stocks and imports. Ending
stocks for 2015/16 are raised 5 million bushels reflecting a larger import projection and offsetting
usage changes. Imports are raised as the pace of organic corn imports through June has been
above expectations. Corn use for ethanol production in 2015/16 is lowered 25 million bushels,
based on the latest indications from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. An
offsetting 25-million-bushel increase is made to corn exports supported by the recent robust pace
of shipments and sales.
Total U.S. corn use for 2016/17 is projected 300 million bushels higher at a record 14.5 billion.
Feed and residual use is raised 175 million bushels with the larger crop and lower expected
prices. Exports are projected 125 million bushels higher, reflecting the relative competitiveness
of U.S. corn on the world market and large new-crop outstanding sales. Corn ending stocks for
2016/17 are projected 328 million bushels higher and, if realized, would be the highest since
1987/88. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is
lowered 25 cents on both ends to $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel. This would be down 45 cents at the
midpoint from the $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel range now expected for 2015/16. The all barley price
is raised this month based on early indications of prices received by farmers for malting barley.
Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2016/17 are projected 5.1 million tons higher this month with a
2.3-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 3.0-million-ton increase in production. Foreign
corn carryin is up, mostly reflecting lower 2015/16 corn feeding in Indonesia, Canada, and
Ukraine as 2015/16 corn production increases for the EU and South Africa offset a further
reduction for Brazil. Foreign corn production for 2016/17 is raised 2.1 million tons with increases
for Argentina, India, and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Canada. Corn
area is raised in Argentina on an expected reduction in planted area for wheat and small grains.
For India, corn area is increased as favorable rainfall has boosted plantings to date as reported
in the latest government statistics. Abundant summer rainfall in Mexico boosts corn yield
prospects, but persistent dryness in Ontario reduces the outlook for production in Canada. EU
corn production is lowered mostly on reductions for Spain and France.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2016/17 is raised 8.9 million tons this month with higher
corn use in the United States accounting for half of the increase. Outside the United States, corn
feeding is raised for Mexico, India, and the EU. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction in
corn feeding for Indonesia, where government import licensing policy is expected to reduce corn
imports. Global coarse grain trade is raised reflecting increases for corn and to a lesser extent
barley. Global 2016/17 coarse grain ending stocks are projected 13.4 million tons higher
reflecting larger corn and barley stocks. Global corn stocks are projected 12.4 million tons higher
with the United States accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
___________________________________________
CORN
Sold @ $18.45 @ 11:57. MMs were taking it down.
Look to re-enter after the report.
CORN
Anyone in CORN? Big report today at noon:
__________________________________________________
Key USDA report could harvest some big surprises for commodities
Jeff Daniels | @jeffdanielsca
CNBC.com
On the eve of a key government crop report, corn futures remain at depressed levels as generally favorable crop conditions and analysts' forecasts point to potentially bin-busting harvests by American farmers.
Nonetheless, industry watchers have been trying to figure out if July's heat wave conditions may have hurt corn yields — and therefore production — since it happened when the crop was in pollination, a sensitive stage when the plant is susceptible to harsh summer weather.
The U.S. Agriculture Department will release the report Friday at noon and it could provide some answers that will move financial markets and help determine corn and soybean prices. The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, a monthly report known as WASDE, is USDA's first survey-based estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean yields for this season.
"As long as USDA doesn't give us a shockingly bearish report — i.e., they give us average yield that is well above what the trade is expecting — I do think there's a good chance that we find a low in here very soon and start to bounce back for corn and soybeans," said Ted Seifried, an analyst at the Chicago brokerage Zaner Group.
The weather bet
Some are betting the July weather opened the door to yield reductions in the corn crop, although at this point, it appears to be a modest hurt.
"Corn and soybean prices are actually implying a farm economy that may be showing signs of a bottom after marked declines the past three years," Feltl & Co. analyst Brent Rystrom said in a report earlier this month. He added that "historical analysis would suggest that excessive heat in July modestly hurt yields, especially in states like Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Nebraska."
"There's definitely room for these markets to go lower."
-Joe Lardy, Research manager, CHS Hedging
At the same time, global demand also may help support ag commodity prices, particularly for the major cash crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat. Indeed, recent export sales of U.S. soybeans to China and other locations helped provide some support for beans during August. The value of ag exports in June reached over $10 billion, and the WASDE report will provide more information on export expectations.
"We expect a bullish demand-driven market for U.S. grains and oilseeds between September 2016 and March 2017, which should facilitate a recovery in prices," Societe Generale analyst Rajesh Singla said in a note Wednesday. "However, we do not expect a runaway rally in prices, as the exports/demand-driven market is usually less exciting than the supply-driven market."
The bears' case
And yet, others counter there could be more downside in the market.
"There's definitely room for these markets to go lower," said Joe Lardy, research manager for CHS Hedging. He explained that there's a bigger threat for soybeans than corn since beans pollinate more in the middle of August. The corn crop's pollination ran into July, and while there were excessive heat conditions, he still believes the crop is in good shape.
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday showed soybean conditions were essentially unchanged week over week but corn conditions deteriorated slightly. The government estimated that 74 percent of the corn crop was "good" or "excellent," which was down from the 76 percent the prior week. At the same time, the report showed 7 percent of the corn crop was considered "poor" or "very poor," up from 6 percent in the prior week.
"WASDE data… will solidify the picture that the adverse weather bet was wrong, and North America will have large crops in corn, soybeans and wheat resulting in materially weaker commodity prices in 2017," Longbow Research analyst Eli Lustgarten said in a note Thursday.
Low crop prices, which are pinching farm incomes, have already severely cut demand for major farm machinery companies such asDeere and AGCO, both in the U.S. and abroad.
"The outlook is deteriorating for Deere and other participants in the Farm Belt, suggesting an extremely tough operating environment over the next 12 to 18 months," Lustgarten said.
Deere is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter earnings Aug. 19, and analysts have been lowering their earnings estimates for the July quarter and full fiscal year over the past 90 days, according to Thomson Reuters. Based on consensus estimates for the quarter, Deere is expected to report an EPS decline of 38 percent from a year ago on a revenue drop of 11 percent.
Main Street feeling ag woes
Disappointing farm incomes also are starting to show up in the broader economy and repayment rates on farm loans are softening, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's second-quarter survey of agricultural credit conditions released Thursday.
"Weaker farm income has continued to have an adverse effect on the District's Main Street businesses," said the Tenth Federal Reserve District, which includes a seven-state region (Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico).
"For example, at the end of July 2016, corn and soybean prices were 47 percent and 24 percent less, respectively, than the same period in 2013. Cattle and hog prices also were lower than a year ago and remained lower than in 2013," the report said.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, the benchmark corn for December was down fractionally at $3.32 a bushel on Thursday. The November soybean contract was up fractionally at $9.8625 a bushel. Corn has fallen about 23 percent in the past two months; soybeans are down 15 percent in the past two months but up 3 percent in the past week.
Sub-$3 corn possible before harvest
In the last WASDE report released July 12, the USDA lowered its 2016/2017 season price range forecast for corn to $3.10 to $3.70 a bushel from its previous estimate issued in June of $3.20 to $3.80 a bushel. That is still well below mid-June levels when December corn was around $4.48 a bushel.
"Our outlook is that prices for corn could get as low as $3 on the Chicago Board of Trade or even dip below $3 before harvest is completely done," said Sterling Liddell, a food and agribusiness analyst with Rabo AgriFinance in St. Louis.
Friday's WASDE report will include any changes in the government's price forecast for major crops. However, analysts say the corn and soybean yield per acre and production estimates will be among the most watched parts of the report.
Stack of corn
Sergio Flores | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Stack of corn
"There are analysts that are estimating 175 bushels per acre (for corn)," said Liddell. "That could have a very negative effect on prices."
USDA's last forecast was for a national corn yield of 168 bushels an acre and current consensus among analysts is for 170.6 bushels an acre. The all-time high of 171 bushels an acre was set in 2014/2015.
Citi's commodity team said in a research note Thursday that "record yields could be in play," and the firm recently lifted its own yield estimates. Citi forecasts an average corn yield of 170 bushels an acre, and the firm "sees prices trading under $4 for the next few quarters with downside potential to $3.10 to $3.20/bushel."
"We think a large harvest may extend the pressure seen in crop input industries into next year," Citi said. The most common "crop inputs" used are fertilizer, ag chemicals, seeds and equipment.
Upside for livestock producers
That said, continued low crop prices could be good news for livestock producers looking to keep feed costs down. Feed costs can run from 60 percent to 80 percent of the cost of production for poultry and pork producers.
On Monday, U.S. meat processor Tyson Foods reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates and indicated results were boosted by lower feed and livestock costs. Tyson produces beef, chicken and pork and indicated that domestic demand for protein has been strong and is expected to continue.
"If we look next year at what the forward curve in the corn and soybean markets is giving us, it looks like the next year's going to be pretty much flat to this year, so we feel good about the way next year is structured," Tyson CEO Donnie Smith said during the company's earnings call.
_________________________________________________
CORN
Continuing to follow in lockstep with the LABU. Nice move.
ACAD
Aeterna Zentaris' (AEZS) CEO David Dodd on Q2 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Aug. 10, 2016 1:38 PM ET| About: AEterna Zentaris, Inc. (AEZS)
Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call
August 10, 2016 8:30 AM ET
Executives
Brooke Geiger - Associate Director, Administration and Communications
David Dodd - President and Chief Executive Officer
Genevieve Lemaire - Interim Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer
Richard Sachse - Senior Vice President, Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer
Jude Dinges - Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Analysts
Swayampakula Ramakanth - H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC
Jason Kolbert - Maxim Group, LLC
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Aeterna Zentaris Second Quarter 2016 Financial Results and Operating Results. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded.
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Ms. Brooke Geiger, for Aeterna Zentaris. Thank you, Ms. Geiger. You may begin.
Brooke Geiger
Thank you, Christine. Good morning and welcome, everyone. I am Brooke Geiger, Associate Director of Communications and Administration of Aeterna Zentaris. I am the leader of today’s call.
With me are David Dodd, President and CEO; Genevieve Lemaire, Vice President of Finance and Chief Accounting Officer; Jude Dinges, Chief Commercial Officer; and Richard Sachse, Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Officer.
During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events and the performance of Aeterna Zentaris that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially. These risks are described in further detail in the company’s press releases and reports filed with the U.S. and Canadian securities regulatory authorities.
These forward-looking statements represent the company’s judgment as of today, Wednesday, August 10, 2016 and the company disclaims any intent or obligation to update these forward-looking statements unless we are required to do so by applicable law or by a securities regulatory authority. However, we may choose to update, and if we do so, we will disseminate the updates to the investing public.
It is now my pleasure to introduce the President, and CEO of Aeterna Zentaris, Mr. David Dodd.
David Dodd
Good morning and thank you for joining us. This is an exciting time for Aeterna Zentaris. We are approaching a major inflection point for our company as we expect to complete two pivotal Phase 3 studies during the coming months and report top-line results for the Macrilen confirmatory study prior to yearend.
Regarding Zoptrex, we expect to report top-line results in the first quarter 2017. I will say more about this later, but let me first provide a brief summary of our achievements during the second quarter.
We ended the quarter, second quarter, with $26.2 million of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, which is indicative of an average monthly use of cash in operations of $2.5 million, during the six month period ended June 30, which is slightly below the burn rate guidance we provided in our first quarter MD&A. Therefore, we now believe that our average monthly use of cash in operations during the remainder of 2016 will range between approximately $2.5 million and $2.7 million.
At the end of the quarter we had approximately $9.9 million common shares outstanding, which is essentially the same number of shares we had outstanding when we completed our last financing in December of 2015.
As noted in our press release, we continue to expect completion of our pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials of Zoptrex and Macrilen in 2016. Recruitment of patients for our confirmatory clinical trial of Macrilen was behind schedule at the end of the quarter. However, our COO substantially caught up during July and enrollment is now back on-track.
The study design is rather straight forward, so we don’t anticipate any problems in completing this study and reporting top-line results this year. We expect to file an NDA for Macrilen during the first-half of 2017 if the results of our confirmatory study warrant doing so.
Since the regulatory review period for the Macrilen confirmatory study is six months, we could begin commercializing this product late in 2017. We are very excited about the commercial prospects for Macrilen. If Macrilen is approved it will be the only FDA approved test available for the evaluation of adult growth hormone deficiency. Its advantages compared to other methods of evaluating condition are compelling.
Furthermore, it has been granted orphan-drug designation by the FDA for diagnosis of AGHD. We own the world-wide rights to this patented compound and have significant patent protection left. Our U.S. composition-of-matter patent expires in 2022. And our U.S. utility patent runs through 2027.
In the U.S. alone, we believe that approximately 40,000 confirmatory tests for adult growth hormone deficiency are conducted each year, which represents our target market at commercialization. We believe that Macrilen will be used for 40% to 50% of such tests during the first year after test reduction, and that the percentage will grow to 85% within the first three years of commercialization.
Furthermore, we believe that this is a significant opportunity for Macrilen in the evaluation of adult growth hormone deficiency in traumatic brain injury patients. As reported by the CDC, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, approximately 215,000 adults were hospitalized for TBI in the United States each year.
Because approximately 20% of such patients are estimated to be at risk of developing growth hormone deficiency, TBI patients are a potentially significant market expansion for Macrilen. For Zoptrex, we are seeking to demonstrate through our pivotal Phase 3 study that the patients who receive Zoptrex survived longer than patients who received doxorubicin.
In addition, we hope to demonstrate the risk-benefit ratio is improved for these patients receiving Zoptrex compared to those who receive doxorubicin. Certainly, in our case with the overall survival and the side-effect profile, the success of our study depends on attaining statistically meaningful differences as compared to doxorubicin.
Recall that this clinical program was fully enrolled at the end of the second quarter of last year, 2015, and that dosing was completed in February of 2016. More recently, the number of monthly events, which in a survival trial represents the monthly number of patient deaths, has been declining. This indicates that the remaining approximately 150 patients are living longer than we have previously expected, although, we don’t know the breakout between those on Zoptrex versus doxorubicin.
But as a result our current expectation is the clinical portion of the trial will conclude by the end of October, and that we will report top-line results during the first quarter of 2017. Recently our efforts to leverage Zoptrex have generated success.
Immediately after conclusion of the second quarter on July 1, we entered into License, Tech Transfer and Supply Agreements with affiliates of Orient EuroPharma for Taiwan and Southeast Asia. We received an upfront payment and will receive additional milestone and royalty payments, if we have positive top-line results and as commercialization of the product proceeds in these territories.
On July 31, we also concluded license and supply agreements with Rafa Laboratories for Israel and Palestinian territory. Again, we received an upfront payment and we will receive milestone and royalty payments.
Relative to our commercial activities after a strong first quarter, our second quarter results were negatively impacted from the apparent seasonality within the growth hormone supplementation market.
For Saizen, new-patient-starts and statements of medical necessity for the product were down 47% and 41% respectively in the second quarter as compared to the first quarter. This business appears to be much more seasonal than we have anticipated. However, we are working with EMD Serono to add adult endocrinologist targets to our selling efforts, which we believe should mitigate the impact of this seasonality.
We recognize that adult patients are obviously less driven by the school calendar of the pediatric patients, who are currently our targets.
An exclusive promotion rights to APIFINY, the only cancer-specific non-PSA blood test for the evaluation of the risk of prostate cancer commenced on June 1, which was too late in the quarter to contribute any meaningful impact in our financial results. However, as we transitioned to our expanded coverage of the APIFINY, June represented our best month to date and significantly exceeded our May results.
Recall that in late February, we initiated our selling of APIFINY in select areas of the U.S. This was more recently expanded to our exclusive promotional agreement, which we initiated in June. Although results are early, we are pleased with the results of promotion of the product and are looking forward to meaningful revenue contribution from APIFINY during future quarters.
During the quarter, second quarter that is, we made the decision to end our co-promotion of EstroGel, effective as of September 1, 2016. We had high hopes for the success of our co-promotion of this product. However, due to circumstances beyond our control of this has resulted being a disappointment. We concluded that it’s now better that we focus our efforts on products that have a greater likelihood of success. Furthermore, we expect to reduce our selling costs by approximately $350,000 per year, as a result of this decision.
Now, I’ll turn the call over to Genevieve Lemaire, our Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer, who’ll provide more information about our second quarter financial results.
Genevieve Lemaire
Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Most of what I will be covering has been presented in more detail in our condensed interim consolidated financial statement and MD&A for the second quarter, which were filed yesterday. I will just pause for a minute to let you look at the current slide.
From an operating expense standpoint, our main operating activities during the second quarter included ongoing efforts associated with our clinical development initiatives, as well as to a lesser extent with our commercial operations, and general and administrative activity. Total operating expense amounted to approximately $7.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, down from approximately $8.2 million in the prior year quarter. This represents 11% reduction.
Our total R&D costs in this quarter were approximately $3.7 million as compared to approximately $4.5 million in the second quarter of 2016. The reduction in R&D expenses by approximately $0.8 million is mainly attributable to a lower comparative third-party cost. The decrease in third-party cost is mainly attributable to the fact that dosing of patients in the ZoptEC trial was completed in February 2016.
This was partially offset by the increase in the third-party cost for Macrilen, because we started the new confirmatory Phase 3 clinical trial for that product during the second-half of 2015. The overall decrease in R&D costs is also explained by lower employee compensation and benefit costs and lower other costs.
A substantial portion of this decrease is due to the realization of cost savings in connection with our effort to streamline our R&D activity and to increase our commercial operations and flexibility by reducing our R&D staff.
Our pivotal Phase 3 trial of Zoptrex and our confirmatory Phase 3 clinical trial of Macrilen continue to be the primary driver of our third-party R&D expenses. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuation, we now expect that we will incur overall R&D cost of between $16 million and $17 million for the year ended December 31, 2016.
The decrease in our expected R&D cost is mainly explained by savings attributable to the fact that the FDA agreed that do not need to conduct any additional toxicity study for Zoptrex.
Switching now to our G&A expenses, during the quarter ended June 30, 2016, G&A expenses totaled approximately $1.9 million and we’re essentially unchanged as compared to G&A expenses during the same period in 2015. For 2016, we believe that G&A costs will range between $6 million and $7.5 million, which exclude any restructuring program and transaction costs that we could incur in relation to a potential financing activity.
From a commercial operation standpoint, we continued during the quarter to incur costs related to our contract sales force and our own management staff in support of our promotion agreements for EstroGel, Saizen, and APIFINY.
Selling expenses during the second quarter of 2016 were approximately $1.7 million and were essentially unchanged compared to selling expenses during the same period in 2015. We are still comfortable with our estimate that total selling cost in 2016 will range between $7 million and $8 million.
As David mentioned, we also expect to reduce our annual selling expenses by approximately $350,000 beginning with Q3 as a result of our decision to end our co-promotion for EstroGel.
We reported net finance income of approximately $0.2 million in the second quarter of 2016 as compared to net finance cost of approximately $7.2 million during the second quarter of 2015. The variance is mainly attributable to the change in fair value of our warrant liability, which resulted from the periodic mark-to-market valuation of our outstanding warrants.
The mark-to-market warrant valuation was effected by the issuance of 3.1 million additional share purchase warrants in 2015, and by the closing price of our common share on the NASDAQ.
Furthermore, the assumption that has been applied to determine the fair value of the alternate cashless feature included in the Series B Warrants significantly impacted the mark-to-market valuation during the second quarter of 2015.
From a cash flow standpoint, we used approximately $6.3 million of cash in operation in the second quarter of 2016, as compared to approximately $8.1 million in the same period in 2015. We used less cash in the second quarter of 2016 than in the prior year quarter, primarily because our operating expenses declined by approximately $0.8 million on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
During the six month period ended June 30, 2016, our average monthly cash flow used in operation was approximately $2.5 million, which is slightly below the lower-end of the range we estimated last quarter. We now expect that our average monthly cash flow used in operation will range between $2.5 million and $2.7 million in 2016. This slight decrease in our expected full-year cash needs, since previous guidance, is mainly explained by the expected decrease in R&D costs, partially offset by the commission revenues that are lower than expected.
We ended the quarter with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of approximately $26.2 million, however, our cash and cash equivalent at the end of June will not be sufficient to fund our operation for the 12-month period following such date. And as a result, our second quarter financial statement, contained a footnote, disclosing material uncertainties related to events and conditions that may cast substantial doubts about our ability to continue as a going concern for at least one year from June 30, 2016. We expect to address the situation before the end of the year.
And now, I’ll turn back the call over to David, who will entertain questions.
David Dodd
Thank you, Genevieve. My colleagues and I will now answer your questions. I am therefore turning the call over to the operator for instructions on the question-and-answer period.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] One moment please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of RK Ramakanth with H.C. Wainwright. Please proceed with your question.
Swayampakula Ramakanth
Good morning, David and team. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is regarding Macrilen program. So when - by the time you’re done with the study and I want to understand what sort of top-line data can we expect on this before you put out your full analysis of the data?
David Dodd
Sure. I’m going to ask - first of all, thank you for your interest RK. But I’m going to ask Richard Sachse to just to give you a little bit of insight on what the top line data will represent. Richard?
Richard Sachse
Yes, thanks, RK, for this question. As you mainly aware, we are comparing in the study our test with the gold-standard, the insulin tolerance test. And in this respect, the primary endpoint will be the positive and negative agreements with the insulin tolerance tests and also the overall agreement. And this is actually then reflected in our top line results that we will analyze the primary endpoint.
In addition to this, the study is, from an operational point, a little bit complex, although the design is very straight forward. And this is related due to the fact that we have enrolled approximately 25% of the patient with a high likelihood of having the disease, 25% of the patients having a low likelihood of the disease and the rest of them will have an intermediate likelihood or will be healthy volunteers.
We also need to ensure that we will have approximately 25% of the patients coming from the U.S. and this will all be then analyzed in subsequent sub-analysis. But again, the primary endpoint is really the agreement with the gold-standard insulin tolerance tests.
Swayampakula Ramakanth
Okay. Thank you. So from my understanding, the data from this can be used for filing both in the U.S. and in Europe, is that correct?
Richard Sachse
This is our understanding. We discussed the protocol with FDA and we discussed the protocol with EMA. And in our understanding the protocol design meets the expectations of both agencies. Eventually, we are very confident that the results then will meet the primary endpoint, but this has to be seen.
Swayampakula Ramakanth
Okay. And, David, you were saying that you expect an initial adoption rate of about 40% and eventually getting up to 85%. So when you say at 40% are we talking about the total population of this condition or is that the 40% of patients who are utilizing the gold-standard right now that you want to get market share out of them?
David Dodd
It’s a little bit different from both of those, which is the 40% of the 40,000 existing adults who are tested on annual basis now. So today the vast majority of those are receiving the insulin tolerance test and there probably are some for which the insulin tolerance test may be, as Crawford [ph] indicated, they may be getting the glucagon stimulation test.
Recent issuance by the American College of Endocrinology has come out I believe in February online. It just came out within the past few weeks, I think, hardcopy; in their journal are the updated guidelines, which discussed the weakness in the GST or the Glucagon Stimulation Test as an alternative. And I think it even cites macimorelin or Macrilen as something that’s coming forward with some anticipation.
So when we talk about the penetration in the marketplace, we look at the fact that today there are - as we have said, there are approximately 40,000 adults who are tested on an annual basis, primarily using the ITT. And we have, based upon our expectation and understanding of our product versus these alternative products or procedures, that’s what we anticipate, a very rapid penetration and uptake in the first year and then over the first three years.
Swayampakula Ramakanth
Okay. And then regarding Zoptrex, it’s very nice to see that - you have three agreements just in the last few months. Does this stop here going into the data phase or you think there is lot more interest and you don’t want to stop making any of these BMD [ph] arrangements?
David Dodd
RK, we have a lot of interest continuing in the evaluation of Zoptrex for non-U.S. territory. At the recent BIO meeting in San Francisco in June, we met with in excess of 50 companies. And firstly, every one of those included a focus on the rights of Zoptrex in their respective territory, be it other Asian territories, Latin America, parts of Europe, et cetera and all.
So there is very high interest in that. What we have decided to do, because as you pointed out, we are in sort of this convergence towards top-line results. As we have set up a procedure, and procedure very straight forward is several companies coming out of the BIO meeting have signed CDAs. And then they are able to go into our data-room, which we have setup, which includes all of the information of Zoptrex with the exception of obviously the final data that we are converging towards and all.
They have a specified period of time in which they can review it. If they have continued interest they will then submit to us a non-binding agreement or non-binding term sheet of what they received based upon an assumption of success coming out of the Zoptrex file.
We’ve already received one of those to review and all, but we will wait furthermore - with further discussions and negotiations, until we have the top-line results. But this is a very good procedure and quite frankly we are doing - we have the exact same procedure set up now for Macrilen. And we have several companies in that data-room, some are companies at both, but we have companies in both data-rooms evaluating.
But in each instance, because we are so close to top-line results, we felt - we both sides felt that it would make more sense to at least allow someone get into the data, against development. And then based upon the assumption of successful outcome provide us an outline of the types of terms they would be willing to then move forward with.
Swayampakula Ramakanth
Okay. On the other end of the BMD, you just decided to let go EstroGel. But are you still looking for assets to bring in or your resources are sort tight up that you want to concentrate on getting Macrilen and Zoptrex out before getting distracted with other BMD situations?
David Dodd
Yes, thank you. We continue to be and we are highly focused on in-licensing opportunities of products for which we would fully manage and all. So when we set up our commercial operation, it was not established to be a co-promotion company on our operation. We did that because we’ve recognized that without having a footprint in the marketplace, our ability to seriously convey our interest and be considered a serious contender for in-licensing opportunities of others’ assets was extremely small, because people said, we don’t take you seriously and all.
And then, since these two products, it has been three products, we’ve had - we certainly hope to do as well as possible with them. But the basis for stepping into that arena with co-promotion has always been to establish a footprint upon which we can then in-license products and begin to post to book revenues and fully manage them now.
We currently continue in active negotiations of some opportunities. They generally are 505(b)2 development projects and they either are at the stage of on the market or soon to be on the market, which could mean that they are at the stage of being submitted with rather short review times or about to be submitted. So we’re not focused on any, as we would say, consider development projects. They have to be at that - our end of commercialization, and we continue on that regard.
Now, because of our balance sheet, we obviously are challenged because of the economics and they are expected in a transaction, we have to then approach it in a more creative way. So we certainly - if it is an opportunity that will require a material upfront that - it’s not an opportunity at this time we can pursue. We decided to move away from it pretty quickly.
However, if we’re able to establish and it fits well with one of our products in endocrinology or in oncology and all, and we can show how we have the ability and knowledge et cetera that we can restructure a proposal differently and all, and that’s how we’re working right now.
Swayampakula Ramakanth
Thank you. Thank you, David. Thanks for taking my questions. I’ll get back into the queue.
David Dodd
Thank you, RK.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Jason Kolbert with Maxim. Please proceed with your question.
Jason Kolbert
Hi, David, I’d like to talk a little bit about the design of the Zoptrex trial and kind of throw a kind of a scenario question at you. Given the fact that this trial is 80% powered, 500 patients enrolled and event-driven, and I don’t remember exactly, but I think it’s something like 375 or 372 events. If there were no difference between active and controlled, given the last enrollment - so given the last enrolled patient, when would you based on historical data expect to hit your event mark?
And you could tell where I’m going with this question, because it seems like we’ve gone beyond that, which is could be for a lot of reasons based on clinical medicine. But it could be suggestive that we’re actually seeing an efficacy difference. And I want to follow-up with this about what the approval criteria would be talking about safety versus efficacy. But let’s just focus on the event-rate and if they were no different between active and controlled, when would you expect to hit that magic event number?
David Dodd
The numbers 384 events is a minimum. But I’m going to turn it over to Richard to take you through the other elements in sort of our general thinking.
Jason Kolbert
Yes, thank you.
Richard Sachse
Thanks, Jason. It’s a logic question. The response to that question is not that straight forward, because the achievement of the 384 event not only depends on the last treatment, it also depends on when particular patients are enrolled. It’s not that all of the patients were enrolled at the same time, but it was rather an enrollment over a period of approximately one to two years. So it’s very difficult to come up with an estimation on when the achievement would have been achieved, if both treatments has been equal.
We obviously have done our calculations and we have observed the event rate from the very beginning, and based on that - as David already stated, based on that the event-rate slowed down. And now you can come up with a lot of speculations and at these days there may be many reasons to explain it. We actually tend to feel positive about it and as you are very well aware this is a fact that you can observe in quite a variety of different oncology trials with overall survival at a particular endpoint.
So in other words, we see a prolongation of what we have initially planned; this is a slower event-rate. Obviously, a longer survival rate as we initially planned. And now we just have to wait and see until we reach the 384 events.
Jason Kolbert
Fair enough. I understand, and I know, you understand my question. And I was just curious, but I’m glad that the delay you could interpret as positive. Can we talk a little bit about the approval standard? I mean, one of the things that’s becoming more and more evident is can you be approved on a better toxicity profile with an equivalent efficacy? And can you just give us some insight and to your discussions with regulators in terms of what they are thinking and what you are thinking?
Richard Sachse
Okay. The protocol has been discussed with FDA during a Special Protocol Assessment at the time when the study was designed. And at that point in time, the thinking was that Zoptrex would be potentially more efficacious and safer as compared to the standard therapy doxorubicin. Obviously, in an ideal world we would observe a better efficacy and a better safety, and this is what we hope for.
On the other hand, there are certainly other scenarios, which might end up with a significant better efficacy, but an equal safety or vice versa. It could be a significantly better safety and equal efficacy. In all of these scenarios, we believe the product would have some potential value and the definitive criteria would still need to be discussed with FDA.
We did not engage into additional discussions with FDA about specific criteria that they would want to see after the Special Protocol Assessment. We obviously had additional FDA indirections on other parameters. And as Genevieve has just reported in our financial statement, we were able to agree with FDA on our current tox programs, and we were able to save quite a significant amount of money here.
But as I said, we did not engage into further discussions, this remained to be seen. We believe we would have a viable product in either case if efficacy or safety would be significantly better than doxorubicin.
Jason Kolbert
Thank you. Those questions and those answers are very helpful. Can we change gear to Macrilen? And David, I knew this is kind of your sweet spot, because it seems to me that promotion and commercialization are going to be critical here, replacing kind of an antiquated test with a much more convenient test, and then looking at the potential to expand to TBI.
So can you share with us a few minutes on what you’re thinking about in terms of the commercial strategy? Obviously, you want to have the most rapid launch you can achieve. And I know this is one of your core strengths, as the CEO, your experience in this management team.
So can you talk just a little bit about what you’re thinking in terms of what the commercial strategy might look like for the launch of Macrilen?
David Dodd
Absolutely, I’m going to make some comments and then turn it over to Jude. But I would just say that, Macrilen is a - it is indeed a most exciting opportunity of product. When one looks at it and you look at this as a disruptive type of entry as opposed to entering a market that exists and you compete for market share. This is a displacement type of opportunity and all.
And that makes it - there are few of those [who have] [ph] an opportunity to go after it. And that becomes very exciting. And then, also - and why is that? Because there’s such an unmet need and a huge need for that.
Just last week, Richard and I were meeting with leading clinical-endocrinologists, who were also highly involved in the development of Macrilen and all. And then you hear about the expectation of the entry of this product. These recent guidelines that were just issued on hard copy, but we’re allowed earlier this year to talk about the glucagon stimulation test and what a poor alternative it is to the insulin tolerance test.
Therefore, say it will - our product could potentially have even a higher and faster uptake than what we have hoped to see, believed to see and all. So from that standpoint, it’s sort of a sales-persons’ product to be able to go out to a very concentrated group of people that move the part, meaning the endocrinologists and all, in a highly focused manner and be able to taking something that they are waiting for, that they are looking for and they realize a very important need for it.
I’m going to ask Jude to pick up from here, because he can take you through exquisitely on all the elements we’re tooling to get prepared for this entry in the market development.
Jude Dinges
And so, Jason, these key - initially, the key to success with Macrilen will be what we do at prelaunch around getting the product covered and picking a channel between pharmacy benefit and medic. So right now, when the patient gets tested with ITT or glucagon, that is a medical procedure and that is billed on their medical benefit, right? So Macrilen, even though it’s not a therapeutic, it is a drug. And we believe since it’s not IV or IM, meaning it’s not - does not have to be injected into the patient, will or could be adjudicated on the pharmacy benefit.
Now, that is a subtle but very important difference, because distribution model, the way it’s billed, the way it’s managed in the insurance companies is different on the pharmacy benefit than it is on the medical benefit. So ITT today is billed on the medical benefit and most of the cost to that test is due to the procedure. So it’s four to five hours, it’s injected. The doctor has to be very close to the patient, et cetera.
The cost of that is mainly the procedure. Macrilen will be potentially an hour or so, it will not be injected, it will be taken orally and it’s a drug that could be managed to the pharmacy benefit. So we believe the cost to administer Macrilen is going to be much less. And so we’re working on all of those things right now, distribution model, contracting strategy with the payers.
And we believe a lot of the work has to be done upfront to get all that right before we launch. And then once we launch, remember, it will be the only product available on the market that has an approved FDA label. So it will have a label, we believe it’s very powerful. And so, the clinicians, we also know all the KOLs and they’re very excited about this. They all know about it. It’s a very small market. But they are all very in-tuned with these procedures. They don’t like doing the ITT generally in the U.S.
And the final piece of the puzzle is this market is controlled largely by no more than 2,000 doctors. So it is a sweet spot, in that a small number of clinicians basically control this market. We believe we’re going to have a very compelling value proposition with Macrilen as it is oral, it will be approved. We believe it’s going to be safe. It has to be seen yet, but we believe it’s compelling.
We wish it was a bigger market, but it is a very compelling product, so…
David Dodd
Jason, let me give an example of the - one of the several benefits that this product will provide. Today, if an adult in Alaska is thought to suffer from a growth hormone deficiency, that adult has to travel to Seattle to have an insulin tolerance test. And no one will conduct an insulin tolerance test in Alaska, due to the required medical supervision and all.
So think of that cost that now has to go into the system. So one has to travel to Seattle, all of that, to go through a scheduled procedure that’s going to take approximately four hours and all. We were at a major facility last week. It is up until a year ago in Seattle, even though patients who travel to Seattle they did not administer the ITT, because none of the endocrinologist felt comfortable in doing it.
So those patients will have to go to another facility either in Seattle or somewhere else. So what now can happen going forward is that that same patient sitting in Alaska, wherever they are, can simply go into a physician’s office or an endocrinologist office and be administered Macrilen, and that cost out of system is suddenly eliminated, and same people or all people are happy or the clinician is happy or the patient is happy.
And so these are just some of the items we see that we keep telling, so there really a point of differentiation upon which we can build for this product.
Jason Kolbert
Okay, David and Jude, thank you very much. I really appreciate the comprehensive answer. It’s very exciting to watch this kind of the data from both of these trials comes to fruition.
David Dodd
Good. Thanks, Jason.
Operator
It appears we have no further questions at this time. Mr. Dodd, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
David Dodd
Thank you. And I want to thank everyone who has listened in and asked questions, for your continued support, and supportive interest in the transformation of Aeterna Zentaris. Indeed, these are exciting times, because a few companies or certainly a few development-stage companies sitting at - or at a point where they have two completing Phase 3 registration oriented trials that are going to be completed and top-line results reported within the next six months and all.
So we look forward to updating you regarding further progress when we discuss third quarter 2016 results. Any material updates or occurrences or activities occur in the interim, we look forward to announcing those. So again, thank you for your continued interest and support. Have a wonderful day.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/3998386-aeterna-zentaris-aezs-ceo-david-dodd-q2-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
(I have no shares)
AEZS
Did add some more at less. I think it is less a problem specific to ACAD, but more biotechs in general.
Compare ACAD and LABU on this Google Chart and see they are pretty much lockstep throughout the day.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=acad&ei=KWSrV8GgCsGimAHk0LLoDQ
Was fine pre-market and early after opening. Tried to sell but was wanting too much. Not in love with ACAD -- just thinking it is a good trade.
LABU turns up tomorrow and bet that this breaks out.
You in?
ACAD
What ACADIA's $200 Million Equity Raise Could Mean For Investors
Aug. 9, 2016 1:31 PM ET|21 comments | About: ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)
Mott Capital Management Mott Capital ManagementFollow(402 followers)
Long only, growth, registered investment advisor, investment advisor
Send Message|Mott Capital Management
Summary
Last night, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals announced a $200 million secondary offering.
Baker Bros. is looking to take about 20% of the deal and add to its already significant position.
The company reported a net loss of over $70 million for 2Q'16.
By Michael Kramer
Update
Last night, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) announced a $200 million secondary offering. On January 6, 2016, the company priced 10.3 million shares at $29, raising about $300 million. ACAD had about $412 million in cash as of June 30, 2016. After this capital raise is complete, it should have approximately $600 million.
Baker Bros.
According to the filing, "entities affiliated with Baker Bros. Advisors LP and two of our directors, Julian C. Baker and Dr. Stephen R. Biggar, have indicated an interest in purchasing an aggregate of up to approximately $40,000,000 of the shares of common stock offered in this offering at the price offered to the public." This means that Baker Bros. is looking to take about 20% of the deal and add to its already significant position. As of its last 13D/A, Baker Bros. owned 24.566 million shares or 21.8% of the company. At the price quoted in the prospectus of $36.49, which was Friday's closing price, Baker Bros. would be adding approximately another 1.1 million shares, bringing its total shares to about 25.6 million or 21.5% of the new 119.16 million shares outstanding. ACADIA is currently Baker's fifth largest holding.
Burn Rate
The company reported a net loss of over $70 million for 2Q'16. This was an increase of about $20 million from 1Q'16. The burn rate has increased over the past several quarters in anticipation of Nuplazid (pimavanserin) getting approval and ACADIA launching the drug. Going through 10-Qs on the sec.gov website, I put together this chart:
(click link below for tables/charts)
The burn rate through the first half of 2016 is almost equal to that of all of 2015. The below chart is the annual comparison complied from its latest 10-K:
(click link below for tables/charts)
Clearly, launching Nuplazid solo has not come cheap and is not likely to get any cheaper. At the current burn of $70 million per quarter, ACAD has enough cash to last until about 3Q'17. Unfortunately, with limited visibility into the launch outside of the deferred revenue we spoke about yesterday, it is tough to predict when Nuplazid will become free cash flow positive.
New Trials
Management has repeatedly talked about the pimavanserin life cycle and developing the drug in additional indications.
The Alzheimer's agitation trial is likely to start in the second half of 2016. Phase II top-line Alzheimer's disease psychosis (ADP) results are due in 4Q'16. Whether the ADP trial is positive or negative, it is likely we will see either a Phase III trial or a redesigned Phase II trial. Remember, the current management team did not design the current ADP trial. It was created by the previous management and different chief medical officers.
We have also mentioned in past articles our belief that we may see additional trials targeting the negative symptoms of schizophrenia and as adjunctive therapies to major depressive disorder. We have based these thoughts on current job postings on the company's website. These areas would require large enrollment groups and multiple trials.
Timing Of The Raise
The timing of the raise does not seem all that surprising given the range the stock has traded in this year. With a low near $18 back in February, the stock is well off those lows. Looking at the chart, the stock's current price is roughly the middle ground over the past year.
(click link below for tables/charts)
It is also likely coming at a higher price than the $29 in January, which means fewer shares will have to be issued. The overall mood of the market is much more favorable to equity raises now versus that in January.
Conclusion
The timing of the raise seems appropriate, and the company has ambitious goals for pimavanserin and its further development. It appears that this is an ideal time for management to make such a move given the improved mood of the market.
I am, and the clients of Mott Capital Management, LLC, are long shares of ACAD.
Disclosure: I am/we are long ACAD.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance
________________________________________
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3997778-acadias-200-million-equity-raise-mean-investors
ACAD
Aeterna Zentaris Expands Promotion of APIFINY® into Florida
Today : Monday 8 August 2016
Aeterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ: AEZS) (TSX: AEZ) (the “Company”) today announced that it is expanding its promotion of APIFINY®, the only cancer-specific, non-PSA blood test available to assess the risk for the presence of prostate cancer, into the important Florida market pursuant to its exclusive promotional agreement with Armune BioScience, Inc. (“Armune”), the owner of the product. The expansion into Florida follows Armune’s receipt of a clinical laboratory license from the State of Florida.
“Our sales and marketing teams are well positioned to leverage the opportunity in the Florida market. We believe APIFINY® provides significant value in aiding clinicians to more accurately determine the optimal clinical pathway for men at risk of prostate cancer by means of its non-PSA based measurement of risk for the presence of prostate cancer. APIFINY® helps meet the needs of achieving value in today’s shifting healthcare environment that involves improving outcomes and patient experiences while lowering overall costs,” commented Jude Dinges, Chief Commercial Officer of the Company.
“We are excited to enter the Florida market with the recent approval of our laboratory license by the State of Florida,” said David Esposito, President and Chief Executive Officer of Armune. “With over 7,000 tests ordered since the launch of APIFINY®, we anticipate significant demand being generated from the Florida market. Given the current concerns of PSA testing throughout the world, APIFINY® is well positioned to offer clinicians additional information in the assessment of prostate cancer risk. In addition, we are confident that APIFINY® will help to address our healthcare system’s demand for improved outcomes at lower costs.”
About Prostate Cancer
Other than skin cancer, prostate cancer is the most common cancer in American men. The American Cancer Society predicted that 220,800 new cases of prostate cancer in the United States would occur in 2015, that there would be 27,540 prostate cancer deaths during the year and that one man in seven would be diagnosed with prostate cancer during his lifetime. Approximately 60% of prostate cancer is diagnosed in men aged 65 or older, and it is rare before age 40. Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in American men, behind only lung cancer. Prostate cancer can be a serious disease, but most men diagnosed with prostate cancer do not die from it. In fact, more than 2.9 million men in the United States who have been diagnosed with prostate cancer at some point are still alive today.
About APIFINY®
APIFINY® is the only cancer-specific, non-PSA blood test that may aid clinicians in the assessment of risk for the presence of prostate cancer. APIFINY® technology measures specific biological markers known to be associated with the immune system’s response to prostate cancer and is based on the measurement of eight prostate-cancer-specific autoantibodies in human serum. These autoantibodies are produced and amplified by the immune system in response to the presence of prostate cancer cells. The autoantibodies are stable and, because of their amplification, are likely to be abundant and easy to detect, especially with small tumors characteristic of early-stage cancers. The autoantibody markers span a range of biological functions integral to prostate cancer progression. APIFINY® is offered as a lab developed test by Armune BioScience in its CLIA regulated laboratory located in Ann Arbor, MI.
About Armune BioScience
Armune is a medical diagnostics company that develops and commercializes unique proprietary technology exclusively licensed from the University of Michigan for diagnostic and prognostic tests for cancer. The Armune BioScience Laboratory is a commercial reference laboratory, certified and regulated by the federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) law established in 1988. The laboratory’s CLIA Certificate permits it to perform APIFINY® and other high-complexity medical tests. Armune, a private company, has a corporate headquarters in Kalamazoo, MI and a research and commercial laboratory in Ann Arbor, MI. For more information, visit www.armune.com.
About Aeterna Zentaris Inc.
Aeterna Zentaris is a specialty biopharmaceutical company engaged in developing and commercializing novel treatments in oncology, endocrinology and women’s health. We are engaged in drug development activities and in the promotion of products for others. We are now conducting Phase 3 studies of two internally developed compounds. The focus of our business development efforts is the acquisition of licenses to products that are relevant to our therapeutic areas of focus. We also intend to license out certain commercial rights of internally developed products to licensees in territories where such out-licensing would enable us to ensure development, registration and launch of our product candidates. Our goal is to become a growth-oriented specialty biopharmaceutical company by pursuing successful development and commercialization of our product portfolio, achieving successful commercial presence and growth, while consistently delivering value to our shareholders, employees and the medical providers and patients who will benefit from our products. For more information, visit www.aezsinc.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to statements preceded by, followed by, or that include the words “expects,” “believes,” “intends,” “anticipates,” and similar terms that relate to future events, performance, or our results. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, among others, the availability of funds and resources to pursue R&D projects and clinical trials, the successful and timely completion of clinical studies, the risk that safety and efficacy data from any of our Phase 3 trials may not coincide with the data analyses from previously reported Phase 1 and/or Phase 2 clinical trials, the rejection or non-acceptance of any new drug application by one or more regulatory authorities and, more generally, uncertainties related to the regulatory process, the ability of the Company to efficiently commercialize one or more of its products or product candidates, the degree of market acceptance once our products are approved for commercialization, the ability of the Company to take advantage of business opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry, the ability to protect our intellectual property, the potential of liability arising from shareholder lawsuits and general changes in economic conditions. Investors should consult the Company's quarterly and annual filings with the Canadian and US securities commissions for additional information on risks and uncertainties relating to forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to update these forward-looking statements. We disclaim any obligation to update any such factors or to publicly announce the result of any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect future results, events or developments, except if required to do so.
View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160808005273/en/
Aeterna Zentaris Inc.
Philip A. Theodore, 843-900-3223
Senior Vice President
ir@aezsinc.com
_________________________________________
AEZS
Great decision, wish I would have held. Not buying now. I look at the chart every day, but suppose I wouldn't have held over the earnings.
I always anticipate the some morning will see Kratos being bought out in part or as a whole.
Good luck.
KTOS
Were you buying or selling? Does your broker charge $4.95 per trade?
CRAY
Definitely big institutions on this one. Last trade was for $1,612,979!!
CRAY
Out GIII @ $40.50. Look to re-enter if it pulls back. Definitely a lot of room overhead.
GIII
Guess should have sold on the bounce today but got a few additional shares. Almost at the one year low.
Retailers have little say. ~95% institutional holdings:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cray/institutional-holdings
CRAY
Out TUBE @ $11.38. See that was too low, but $11.40 was my daily target. Hope to re-enter if drops and definitely looking long term after the quarterly.
TUBE
Nice recovery so far. RUBI has bounced back by ~7%.
We'll see if the shorts scramble!
TUBE
Radio One, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Results
WASHINGTON, Aug. 4, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Radio One, Inc. (NASDAQ:
ROIAK and ROIA) today reported its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2016. Net revenue was approximately $122.7 million, an increase of 2.4% from the same period in 2015. Station operating income1 was approximately $48.9 million, an increase of 5.5% from the same period in 2015. The Company reported operating income of approximately $27.7 million for the three months ended June 30, 2016, compared to operating income of $24.8 million for the same period in 2015. Net income was approximately $7.3 million or $0.15 per share (basic) compared to a net loss of $13.0 million or $0.27 per share (basic) for the same period in 2015.
Alfred C. Liggins, III, Radio One's CEO and President stated, "I was pleased that our core radio advertising was positive at +1.4% for the quarter, and that we outperformed our markets overall. Disciplined cost management allowed us to grow our radio division cash flow, with Adjusted EBITDA up 10% for the quarter. We improved Adjusted EBITDA for each of our operating segments in Q2, leading to an overall increase of 9.6%. Our cable television advertising revenues in Q2 were impacted by some under-delivery against ratings estimates, however, sequential Q3 delivery is significantly improved, currently up by 9.5% in the primetime 25-54 demo, and our overall EBITDA guidance for the year still holds. During the quarter, we repurchased $20 million of our 2020 notes at an average price of 85.9, which both reduces our ongoing interest burden and helps move us towards our long term goal of lower leverage."
(data omitted)
Net revenue increased to approximately $122.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, from approximately $119.8 million for the same period in 2015, an increase of 2.4%. Net revenues from our radio broadcasting segment decreased 0.2% for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, versus the same period in 2015. We experienced net revenue growth in eight of our radio markets (most significantly in Washington D.C., Charlotte and Cleveland); however, this growth was offset by declines in other markets (with Columbus, Philadelphia, Houston and Detroit experiencing the most significant declines). Reach Media's net revenues increased 2.8% in the second quarter of 2016, compared to the same period in 2015. The "Tom Joyner Fantastic Voyage" took place during the second quarters of 2016 and 2015 and generated revenue of approximately $8.8 million and $8.7 million, respectively, for Reach Media. We recognized approximately $47.6 million of revenue from our cable television segment during the three months ended June 30, 2016, compared to approximately $45.6 million for the same period in 2015, the increase due primarily from an increase in affiliate sales. Finally, net revenues for our internet business increased 7.9% for the three months ended June 30, 2016, compared to the same period in 2015 due to higher direct revenue.
Operating expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, stock-based compensation and impairment of long-lived assets, increased to approximately $85.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, up 1.0% from the approximately $84.9 million incurred for the comparable quarter in 2015.
Depreciation and amortization expense decreased to approximately $8.6 million compared to approximately $9.0 million for the quarters ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively, a decrease of 4.5%. The decrease was due to certain assets reaching the end of their useful lives.
Interest expense increased to approximately $20.5 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, compared to approximately $20.0 million for the same period in 2015. On April 17, 2015, the Company's 2011 Credit Agreement, and TV One notes were paid off, with balances of $367.6 million and $119.0 million, respectively. The payoffs were achieved by the Company entering into its new $350.0 million 2015 Credit Facility, issuing the 2022 Notes in an aggregate principal amount of $350.0 million and the Comcast Note in the aggregate principal amount of approximately $11.9 million. The Company made cash interest payments of approximately $18.6 million on its outstanding debt for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, compared to cash interest payments of approximately $2.6 million on the 2011 Credit Agreement and the notes that were outstanding with respect to the TV One debt for the quarter ended June 30, 2015. Thus, the increased interest expense and cash payments were made due to higher debt balances.
The gain on retirement of debt of approximately $2.6 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 was due to the redemption of approximately $20 million of our 2020 Notes at a discount. The loss on retirement of debt of approximately $7.1 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2015 was due to the retirement of the 2011 Credit Facility and payoff of the TV One Notes during the second quarter of 2015. This amount included a write-off of approximately $1.3 million of previously capitalized debt financing costs, a write-off of $844,000 of original issue discount associated with the 2011 Credit Agreement, as well as $827,000 associated with the call premium to refinance the credit facility, $106,000 associated with the consent to the existing holders of the 2020 Notes and approximately $4.0 million of costs associated with the financing transactions.
The provision for income taxes for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 was approximately $2.2 million and $9.9 million for the comparable period in 2015, with the change primarily attributable to the deferred tax liability ("DTL") for indefinite-lived intangible assets. The change in taxes was primarily due to the completion of tax amortization from previously acquired indefinite-lived intangible assets. The Company paid $352,000 and $276,000 in taxes for the quarters ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively.
The increase in noncontrolling interests in income of subsidiaries was due to greater net income generated by Reach Media.
Other pertinent financial information includes capital expenditures of approximately $1.1 million and $1.6 million for the quarters ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively. As of June 30, 2016, the Company had total debt (net of cash balances and original issue discount) of approximately $951.2 million. During the three months ended June 30, 2016, the Company repurchased 575,608 shares of Class D common stock in the aggregate amount of approximately $1.1 million. During the six months ended June 30, 2016, the Company repurchased 636,174 shares of Class D common stock in the aggregate amount of approximately $1.2 million. The Company, in connection with its 2009 stock plan, is authorized to purchase shares of Class D common stock to satisfy employee's tax obligations in connection with the vesting of share grants under the plan. During the six months ended June 30, 2016, the Company repurchased 330,111 shares of Class D common stock, to satisfy employee tax obligations, in the amount of $568,000. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2015, the Company repurchased 345,293 shares of Class D common stock, to satisfy employee tax obligations, in the amount of approximately $1.4 million.
(data omitted)
Radio One, Inc. will hold a conference call to discuss its results for second fiscal quarter of 2016. The conference call is scheduled for Thursday, August 04, 2016 at 10:00 a.m. EDT. To participate on this call, U.S. callers may dial toll-free 1-800-230-1085; international callers may dial direct (+1) 612-332-0107.
A replay of the conference call will be available from 12:00 p.m. EDT August 04, 2016 until 11:59 p.m. EDT August 06, 2016. Callers may access the replay by calling 1-800-475-6701; international callers may dial direct (+1) 320-365-3844. The replay Access Code is 397824. Access to live audio and a replay of the conference call will also be available on Radio One's corporate website at www.radio-one.com. The replay will be made available on the website for seven days after the call.
Radio One, Inc. (radio-one.com), together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified media company that primarily targets African-American and urban consumers. It is one of the nation's largest radio broadcasting companies, currently owning and/or operating 56 stations in 16 urban markets in the United States. Through its controlling interest in Reach Media, Inc. (blackamericaweb.com), the Company also operates syndicated programming including the Tom Joyner Morning Show, the Russ Parr Morning Show, the Rickey Smiley Morning Show, the DL Hughley Show, Bishop T.D. Jakes' Empowering Moments, and the Reverend Al Sharpton Show.
Beyond its core radio broadcasting franchise, Radio One owns Interactive One (interactiveone.com), the fastest growing and definitive digital resource for Black and Latin Americans, reaching millions each month through social content, news, information, and entertainment. Interactive One operates a number of branded sites including News One (news), The Urban Daily (men), Hello Beautiful (women), Global Grind (Millennials) and social networking websites such as BlackPlanet and MiGente. The Company also owns TV One, LLC (tvone.tv), a cable/satellite network programming serving more than 57 million households, offering a broad range of real-life and entertainment-focused original programming, classic series, movies and music designed to entertain, inform and inspire a diverse audience of adult Black viewers. Additionally, One Solution combines the dynamics of Radio One's holdings to provide brands with an integrated and effectively engaging marketing approach that reaches 82% of Black Americans throughout the country.
Notes:
1 "Station operating income" consists of net loss before depreciation and amortization, corporate expenses, stock-based compensation, income taxes, noncontrolling interest in income (loss) of subsidiaries, interest expense, impairment of long-lived assets, other (income) expense, loss (gain) on retirement of debt, (income) loss from discontinued operations, net of tax, and interest income. Station operating income is not a measure of financial performance under generally accepted accounting principles. Nevertheless, station operating income is a significant basis used by our management to measure the operating performance of our stations within the various markets because station operating income provides helpful information about our results of operations apart from expenses associated with our fixed assets and long-lived intangible assets, income taxes, investments, debt financings and retirements, overhead, stock-based compensation, impairment charges, and asset sales. Our measure of station operating income may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies as our definition includes the results of all four segments (radio broadcasting, Reach Media, internet and cable television). Station operating income does not purport to represent operating income or cash flow from operating activities, as those terms are defined under generally accepted accounting principles, and should not be considered as an alternative to those measurements as an indicator of our performance. A reconciliation of net income (loss) to station operating income has been provided in this release.
2 Certain reclassifications have been made to prior year balances to conform to the current year presentation. These reclassifications had no effect on any other previously reported or consolidated net income or loss or any other statement of operations, balance sheet or cash flow amounts. Where applicable, these financial statements have been identified as "As Reclassified."
3 For the three months ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, Radio One had 48,110,440 and 48,062,991 shares of common stock outstanding on a weighted average basis (basic), respectively. For the six months ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, Radio One had 48,387,482 and 47,840,082 shares of common stock outstanding on a weighted average basis (basic), respectively.
4 For the three months ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, Radio One had 49,279,142 and 48,062,991 shares of common stock outstanding on a weighted average basis (fully diluted for outstanding stock options), respectively. For the six months ended June 30, 2016 and 2015, Radio One had 49,561,381 and 47,840,082 shares of common stock outstanding on a weighted average basis (fully diluted for outstanding stock options), respectively.
5 "Adjusted EBITDA" consists of net loss plus (1) depreciation, amortization, income taxes, interest expense, noncontrolling interest in income of subsidiaries, impairment of long-lived assets, stock-based compensation, loss on retirement of debt, Employment Agreement and incentive plan award expenses, severance-related costs, less (2) other income and interest income. Net income before interest income, interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization is commonly referred to in our business as "EBITDA." Adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA are not measures of financial performance under generally accepted accounting principles. However, we believe Adjusted EBITDA is often a useful measure of a company's operating performance and is a significant basis used by our management to measure the operating performance of our business because Adjusted EBITDA excludes charges for depreciation, amortization and interest expense that have resulted from our acquisitions and debt financing, our taxes, impairment charges, gain on retirements of debt, and any discontinued operations. Accordingly, we believe that Adjusted EBITDA provides useful information about the operating performance of our business, apart from the expenses associated with our fixed assets and long-lived intangible assets, capital structure or the results of our affiliated company. Adjusted EBITDA is frequently used as one of the bases for comparing businesses in our industry, although our measure of Adjusted EBITDA may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies, including, but not limited to the fact that our definition includes the results of all four segments (radio broadcasting, Reach Media, internet and cable television). Adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA do not purport to represent operating income or cash flow from operating activities, as those terms are defined under generally accepted accounting principles, and should not be considered as alternatives to those measurements as an indicator of our performance. A reconciliation of net income (loss) to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA has been provided in this release.
Logo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20090806/PH57529LOGO
To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/radio-one-inc-reports-second-quarter-results-300308949.html
SOURCE Radio One, Inc.
Copyright 2016 PR Newswire
____________________________________________________
ROIAK
Probable explanation for today:
"Adam Singer ?@AdamSinger 17m17 minutes ago
@OphirGottlieb @WhiteCoatMafia @Pharmdca this is for sure why $TUBE is down:
Yesterday was a big day for advertising technology, with earnings reports from three of the top names, Rubicon Project (RUBI), Criteo (CRTO), and Rocket Fuel (FUEL).
And the stocks are taking quite different directions following those reports:
Rubicon is down $4.39, or 32%, at $9.28; Criteo is down $2.77, or 6%, at $40.39; and Rocket Fuel is up 11 cents, or 5%, at $2.34.
Rocket Fuel solidly beat expectations, while Criteo and Rubicon Project both offered disappointing outlooks. Another member of the group, TubeMogul (TUBE), is set to report results on August 8th, after the market closes. Its shares are down 29 cents, or 3%, at $10.41.
Rubicon has gotten at least five downgrades today, that I can see, from Cantor Fitzgerald, SunTrust, Raymond James, Citigroup, and RBC Capital, and numerous reductions of price target.
There are no ratings changes for Rocket Fuel or Criteo, that I can see."
_______________________________________
Pre-market bid was $11.00. Shoulda, coulda was trying to sell @ $11.40 which was hit -- just not mine.
TUBE
TubeMogul (TUBE) – Growth from Digital Ads
AUGUST 3, 2016 | 11:04 AM by JAGUAR | AVO@JAGUARANALYTICS.COM
Display Ads are overtaking Search Ads this year, according to eMarketer data from late 2015. Of the more than $61.4 billion that is estimated to be spent on advertising in 2016, 52.3% will be on display ads, commonly known as banner ads.
media ad spending
Search ads vs Display ads
When a search is made using specific wording, for example “Caribbean cruise” on Google, along with the articles returned will appear ads targeted to that query. The consumer has the option to click on any, or none of those ads. The results are based on cookies from the user’s computer as well as location information through ISP; someone searching from their home in Fairbanks won’t be shown ads for travel agencies in Geneva. These search ads are known as “pull” mediums, as the searcher has to do something to trigger the ad.
Display ads in contrast are “push” mediums. They are on the web pages that the person is browsing and, again, appear based on cookies. Unless they are clicked on, they sit silently, merely taking up space. There are over 47 Billion web pages in cyberspace therefore plenty of space for advertising. Also, a web page can have more than one banner ad, configured in a multitude of sizes and layouts.
banner ads
Possible layouts of Banner Ads
Service Segments
TubeMogul (TUBE) derives its income from two segments that essentially provide the same service: Platform Direct and Platform Services. While the former is automated, the latter is done through customer service representatives. TUBE’s revenue gross margins in Q1 for Direct were 96.9% while Services gross margins posted 48.5%, the large difference due to the self-serve functionality of the platform. Understandably, TUBE is actively encouraging their customers to switch over to Platform Direct.
RBC Capital Survey
In February, RBC conducted a survey of more than 1,000 advertising professionals to gauge spend behavior and marketer sentiment towards Social Media & Programmatic Advertising.
The results showed that:
Spending on programmatic advertising is increasing, with 70% of respondents indicating they would be increasing spending for this type of advertising versus other platforms.
55% of respondents indicated their ROI has improved in the six months leading up to the survey, with only Facebook (FB) ad spend getting a higher ROI at 59%. Interestingly, TUBE became one of FB’s Marketing partners as of March 31st.
Mobile remains the largest opportunity to be tackled, with 31% believing it presents the largest spend opportunity, followed by Video advertising with 30%.
All the data points towards expanded adoption of programmatic advertising and progression from its relatively early stages with planned budget allocation increases.
pro
Programmatic Advertising & Real-Time Bidding
At its simplest definition, Programmatic Advertising is using software to buy digital ads automatically. There is no human interference, negotiation or order placing, aside from the initial account set-up and any further adjustments.
At the moment it is used mainly for online advertising transactions, with future plans for integration into television. If anything is going to end the countless unwanted diaper and cialis ads, this technology would be it.
Real-time bidding is a type of programmatic buying and refers to the purchase of ads through real-time auctions. With RTB, ad space buyers bid on an impression and, if the bid is won, the buyer’s ad is instantly displayed on the visited website. This action takes place in less than 200 milliseconds, from the time you start loading your web page to the time it is fully displayed, the advertising you’ll see is targeted specifically to you, based on your online data.
keyw
Tubemogul’s Software
Offering a plethora of targeting parameters, TUBE’s platform can narrow an advertiser’s audience from general demographic to specific details. From age range to gender, marital status, number of children and their ages, salary range or ranges, where they live, whether they like to ski ,surf, golf or play video games, what they like to eat and when, what they like to drink with their meals, what….. ok… You get it. The software can help a client narrow this as much or as little as they want to. Instead of aiming at the masses, the focus is those more likely to be interested in the product advertised.
That is a money-saver for the advertiser, and it also greatly increases the likelihood of reaching a potential customer.
Google & Facebook recent earnings
Facebook (FB) – Ad Revenue grew 63% Y/Y driven by 49% Y/Y growth in Ad Impressions and 9% growth in Ad Pricing. FB is benefiting from a new surge in Advertiser Demand, driven by new ad formats (e.g. Video, Canvas), improved targeting and campaign management tools, and increasing evidence that FB ad campaigns generate high ROIs (as per RBC note).
Google (GOOGL GOOG) – 29% Y/Y Paid Click growth across Google and 37% on Google Sites, both above Street consensus. Overall CPC decline of (7%) Y/Y and Google Sites decline of (9%) both improved.
It is clear that advertising revenue drove this Quarter’s revenues for both these media giants and let’s not forget that TUBE is partnered with FB.
Capture
Partnerships
TUBE has partnership agreements with many companies, the following list is not all-inclusive:
Facebook ?Instagram ?Snapchat
Twitter ?Dannon ?Stickyads (Europe)
Teads ?MyWebGrocer ?Placemedia
Recent Analyst Coverage
June 14th: Stephens reiterated Overweight and target of $20
May 22nd: Bank of America reiterated Buy
May 20th: Oppenheimer reiterated Buy and target of $18
May 10th: Piper Jaffray reiterated Buy and target of $20
April 12th: Citi initiated with a Buy and target of $18
March 1st: BMO reiterated Market Perform and target of $15
February 26th: RBC Capital reiterated Buy and target of $18
Options Activity
Options chain is not very active, however recently two Bullish transactions were noted:
August 1st: 500 December 10 calls bought
July 19th: 750 September 10 calls bought
Technical Observations
Price is attempting to stay above the support trendline (in green) and at the same time trying to get above the resistance trendline (in red). Volume congestion levels are at $11.60 and $15.70.
2871
Risks to Consider
Rubicon Project (RUBI) reported on August 2nd. While profit topped analysts’ expectations, management lowered its outlook citing ad industry “headwinds” sending shares down more than 30%. TUBE is down 2% in sympathy.
Increasing use of Ad-Blocker software on all media platforms and browsers.
Regulatory concerns over privacy. Ad targeting is dependent on data from users and any reduction in accessibility would reduce revenues.
Final Thoughts
A Bullish case can be made for TUBE based on this quarter’s improved earnings reports from Google and, more importantly, Facebook. If ad spending trends are indeed increasing and moving over to Real-Time-Bidding, as surveys and studies are suggesting, then TUBE’s business could also see an increase in customer base and revenues. M&A in this space is also very possible and there have been over 30 such acquisitions n the past 18 months.
Q2 Earnings are to be released on August 8th.
____________________________________________-http://www.jaguaranalytics.com/home/tubemogul-tube-growth-from-digital-ads/
Read the report for table/charts -- good info
TUBE
CEO selling the last two days is a bit unsettling:
http://insideri.com/1612849_000161284916000026_0001612849-16-000026
TUBE