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Go the NASDAQ wesbite under ownership. You can see the net decrease in institutional shares owned based on 13F filings. The remainder of the company's shares outstanding (besides insiders and small amounts held by market makers) are retail.
Your point a) is not factually correct, because retail ownership has increased as a number of our largest institutional investors, such as Fidelity and Broadfin, sold large positions.
Exactly, and if any of those executives did leave and it's related to, for example, Amgen putting its own people in place as part of a buyout or stepped up ownership stake, then I can see why ADXS would have a blackout, because answering the question with "no, they are no longer with ADXS" would lead to a follow-up question "why?" then you get to a slippery slope regarding what IR may unintentionally reveal regarding the nature of their departures. However, if the execs were still at ADXS as some claim, IMO IR would have simply confirmed they are still there, but instead they have dodged answering the question altogether to anyone.
A black out period may be imposed for any reason, including the existence of nonpublic, material information about the Company, the anticipated issuance of interim financial results guidance or other material public announcements. The existence of an event-specific black out period may not be announced, or may be announced only to those who are aware of the transaction or event giving rise to the blackout period. If you are made aware of the existence of an event-specific black out period, you should not disclose the existence of such black out period to any other person.
Hovacre, agreed, this seems more than just the clincal hold. The last hold we had the company did not shut down all communications. The fact that folks who have good relationships with IR who normally get timely responses are not even getting a response on the basic question of whether those five execs are still at the company or not implies a blackout period related to some material non public event that has yet to be disclosed.
Donjay, curious what you are thinking. I've tried to take the long view going on 9 years now, but think the collapse of the stock and selling 20% of the company at an all time low price isn't sustainable if they want to salvage shareholder value. Another dilution on those terms wipes out years of value from an ROI standpoint. which is why I think there is a case to sell the company now. Also, the signs point to something going on (interim CEO for an extended period, trial delays and potential exits of some of the management team and management no longer responding to investors inquiries).
Maybe the blackout is because investors suspected and started asking whether the company's lab is really a gas chamber for unsuspecting patients, and several of the management team resigned because killing innocent victims got to their conscious. The blackout will end when the authorities have recovered the dead bodies.
Friday the 13th is as good as any day to end the blackout and announce whatever outbid that has been in the works.
You don't know that just as I don't know it's a buyout. We'll find out soon enough.
The broker shares are owned by individuals so they are retail shares.
Well we know they are in a blackout that began a couple weeks ago since they are not responding to investor inquiries. Usually blackout periods are followed by a material event of some sort. I am hoping for the best.
More likely for Amgen to go ahead and buy the company than prepay $500m in future milestones that are not certain.
Exaclty, if they wait until EU approval, which isn't certain, they would have to sell at least another 20% or more of the company near our all time low stock price, essentially diluting close to the majority of our interests for peanuts. Now is the time to sell to put the tech in stronger hands if the company wantsn to salvage any of the shareholder value destroyed.
That's correct, Kyndiloh
Good point. There is also the article written by Ms. Bonstein around the same time touting how valuable CFOs are to the drug development process and serve as integral strategic advisors in small biotechs. Setting aside the argument that she actually didn't adhere to many of the characteristics she touted (keeping spending low in early years and keeping projects on time without delay), one might read the article and question whether its promotion benefits ADXS at all, or rather, benefits the author who may know she has only a limited amount of additional tenure at her present company and could use the article as part of her next job search effort. Perhaps this is also a piece of the puzzle related to the black out.
And another thing that happened is five of the top eight execs of the company have seemingly left, the five that didn't receive retention bonuses per the agreement set in motion last July when the CEO was replaced with an interim CEO.
For what it's worth, ADXS had a clincial hold for two months in Oct-Dec 2015 and didn't put into effect the same type of black out we have now.
Understand, that is a legitimate possibility, then what is your account of five executives who seemingly left the company. Many of the inquiries that investors have not gotten any response from IR were simply asking if those executives were still at the company, not questions regarding the clinical hold.
"there's an odd electricity in the air around this company, and it's hard to remain rational."
Yea, investors financing the company who have seen their investment value erode by 80% due to poor business and greedy management decisions over the last several years at the same time the trials have progressed nicely with solid data makes it not very surprising to have an odd electricity in the air.
"pet construct has conditional approval and looks very promising for further research but we need partner to pay"
We have a partner that we did a full licensing deal with, PETX. They have rights for the current conditionally approved construct plus are developing and paying for several of our other vet constructs. The problem is the deal was crap. O'Connor gave away all of the rights for only $1.5 million upfront and the total milestone potential payments from the PETX deal are only around $30 million for all the vet constructs. That's why the stock didn't move an inch when the vet construct got conditional approval, because there is very little monetary value to ADXS.
Hold on tight everyone, understandable there is a lot of frustration given the value erosion of the stock, but we are close to the end. The black out period and shell of a mamagmemt team cannot last forever, I suspect the buyout or material transaction will be announced between now and June. GLTA
Rfrank, I hear you. The wait is almost over IMO. Too many signs point to a buyout. If not, they would have already hired a CEO and not gotten rid of the majority of the management team. The company has generated enough data at this point, and given the Amgen deal and Merck and Bristol collaborations with BPs flush with cash doing buyouts, the time is now. I give it until June 30 and ADXS will be acquired by my bet is Amgen.
Island, hopefully it's a good ending for everyone...and it's lookimg like it could be soon.
Good point, the stock was over $8 a year ago. If DOs removal, the interim CEO, delay in NEO was Amgens direction setting up for a sale, the uncertainty has killed the stock so I agree the valuation sale premium should be based in the stock when it was in the $8-$9 range a year ago. Lombardo has an M&A background so hopefully he gets us a sale valuation closer to $1b than $500m.
Keith I would love to see a buyout for $1b/$20 or more. I just think that's a stretch based of the current valuation. I do think we are about to see a buyout or change if control at the least. IMO it will more likely be in the $500m to $750m/$10 to $15 range, but I would love to be proven wrong.
Regarding the execs that seemingly have left the company, if they were still there a simple confirmation would have been given by IR. However, if the departures are related to a sale or change of control that triggered the blackout, that is reason for the company not to respond to the inquires.
Uhh, DNDN wasn't sold for anything, it ended up declaring bankruptcy, which is where ADXS could be heading if it is not sold, which is why I think a sale is underway.
If you look at the website leadership section, three people are listed whereas before eight were. Agree that it's not certain they have left the company, hence the question to IR.
Absurd question to confirm if 5 of the senior most people are still at the company after they were removed from all material. Most who have invested in the company I think would agree that this is a relevant reasonable question.
"in my mind, she has stated the same thing to these individuals ad nauseam."
Uhh, not sure if you have read the board much in the last week, but numerous people who regularly get responses from Noelle within one day have asked her if the five execs in question are still at the company and have received no response. So she has not stated anything regarding this subject. If the execs were still at the company, a simple "they are still at ADXS" would have been communicated.
Fair points. From the sound of your post though my guess is you are not a finance guy. The problem is that ADXS just gave away 20% of the company for $20 million at an all time low stock price of $2 for a mere four months more of operations. That is unsustainable. If the company were to do another dilution on those terms, we are talking about an amount approaching a majority of our interests being diluted away for very little additional operating runway. This type of financing is often referred a death spiral because the severity of the dilution typically overrides any future value creation from a shareholder ROI perspective. That is where we are now, which is one of the reason I think a sale is in motion. It is a big deal when 5 our of the 8 person management team leave a company. Likely not a coincidence and not their own decision, and the company can't effectively run itself as a stand alone company with a skeleton management team. Then you have the CFO writing an article touting her skills to start up biotech, and an interim CEO in place for nine months without a permanent one being named. The signs are there that either a sale or some type of major transaction involving a change of control are in place. If it is a sale, I want the highest price possible, I'm just trying to be realistic in saying it could be sold at the low end for $10/$500 million because frankly the $2 offering is evidence that ADXS is not exactly in a position of strength.
Also, interim CEO who is a deal guy in place for nine months now without a permanent one being named. Means nothing.
Business as usual. Just a black out period, company not responding to any inquiries, majority of the management team no longer there, CFO writing article touting her worth to development stage biotechs. Nothing going on, no buyout.
I believe ADXS was not mentioned because ADXS, not Amgen, is presenting the NEO preclinical studies.
I think the implication is that the compnay is being sold, that or a major deal. What worries me a bit is the sale price considering how low the stock is now. What we all can agree on is that if it is less than $10, it will be a disappintment.
You just said they would never sell for as low as $10. I was simply saying that is not true, because they already sold most of their shares for under that amount. Why they sold is a different issue.
You're forgetting that Fidelity already sold most of their shares for well under $10.
It's a matter of what kind of premium a buyer is willing to pay. A $10/$500m buyout would be a 500% premium to our current valuation. I think expecting much more is not realistic. I do think we will see a buyout considering the signs we have seen also considering another dilution on terrible terms would be not be a good outcome for shareholders.
Lombardo, get it done. Neither you nor steadfast ADXS long-term shareholders who have funded the company through thick and thin the last decade are getting any younger. Amgen, for $10 a share or more the keys to the entire company are yours. GLTA
Be careful what you wish for, Keith. If ADXS were sold for an equivalent premium that Novartis paid for AVXS, our sale price would just over $3. I'm more optimistic, think we could potentially get a 500% or more premium (for a $10+ sale price) given how low our valuation is relative to our platform and how much it has dropped over the last couple years due to mismanagement.