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still okie dokie
okie dokie
I haven't followed all this exchange, but I don't think getting 44 steaks since 1999 is unreasonable.
ah. apparently u never dated a vegan.
"Where would you get 44 streaks since 1999 from that."
jeez, dood. did i say 44 since 1999? is english even your native language?
"I would say maybe three since 1999...maybe Apr '01,Sept '01,and most def Oct '02.Chill brah."
lol. well, definitely 8-9/03, as i said. seems u missed that one jeez, did u even read the post?
"This is so farkin trivial at this point it's ridiculous.There are people here who are VERY quick to jump down people's throat FOR NO REASON.I think some need to chill.Peace."
i was jumping down your throat?
look, there was an emphatic NON-EXISTENT in the original post. if the point was worthwhile making in the first place, its worth making correctly. if it sounded like i was jumping down your throat - hey, take your own advice, chill.
well dan, i'm on the prowl for such things because i need to rebuild my gold position. so i'm looking for good entries. too skittish now, seems like everything is manipulated, probably with an eye towards november.
not 44 in 2003
duh, did i say that?? 44 7-day streaks would require at least 352 trading days; wouldn't even fit into 2003.
Some of you guys are real firecrackers shooting off.Chill brah.
back at ya' ...
i was and did refute the claim that there weren't any 7-day streaks since 1998 ...
seven and eight are NON-EXISTENT since 1999
actually, not true!
there were 44 of them, the last 08/26/03 - 09/04/03.
nasdaq streaks
http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-streaks-day.htm
"I'll just view it as an excellent buying opportunity because I believe the PoG will be higher in the second half of this year than it is now."
while i don't doubt that, doesn't the conspiracy-theorist in you kinda feel like the terror alert, etc. were all engineered to prop the bond market and in turn the housing market in the light of recent events there?
oh, on a not unrelated note, from the WaPo:
A More Frequent Visitor
Greenspan's White House Trips Increased Sharply in Recent Years
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58864-2004May26.html
so dan,
your gold pullback hasn't happened yet, i see and clearly i sold too early. what are you and your gurus saying about gold near-term. i thought i'd have a while to get better prices ...
just looking at charts, the weekly on the hui and xau both look like we've half-way retraced 3 black crows. so if i were going just by technicals/candles, i'd have to say i can't be bullish until the whole thing is negated, i.e. hui exceeds 240. that doesn't seem likely near term.
OT ok guys, jeez. ya know, his indignation connects with some people ... not everyone is cowed by the messianic 'sons of light vs sons of darkness' kinda stuff ...
those missing 18 1/2 minutes ....
Missing Papers Have
Reference to Rumsfeld
By GREG JAFFE and DAVID S. CLOUD
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
May 27, 2004; Page A2
WASHINGTON -- U.S. officials said that among documents regarding the Iraq-prison scandal that the Pentagon failed to give Congress is one described as a "draft update for the Secretary of Defense" on interrogation rules.
The date and contents of the document referring to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld are unknown. But Col. Thomas Pappas, the senior intelligence officer at Baghdad's Abu Ghraib prison, has suggested in testimony to Army investigators that it discusses a set of rules to guide interrogations in Iraq and suggests that military police should "support interrogations," said a U.S. official.
It isn't clear if the draft document ever reached the defense secretary. Congressional investigators want to review it to see if Mr. Rumsfeld was involved in crafting or at least approving tough interrogation rules for prisoners in Iraq.
Congressional staffers raised concerns last week that they hadn't received 2,000 pages of the 6,000-page Army investigation into the prison-abuse scandal, conducted by Maj. Gen. Antonio Taguba. Wednesday, the Pentagon acknowledged it inadvertently failed to give the Senate Armed Services Committee a full copy of the report.
Several members of the Senate Armed Services Committee are focusing on whether senior Pentagon officials played a role in putting in place coercive interrogation practices that later figured in the abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib. Pentagon spokesman Larry DiRita said neither Mr. Rumsfeld nor any of his senior Pentagon staff played such a role.
"I think we've exhaustively concluded that they were done in theater and improved in theater," he said. "There was no oversight or approval of any procedures and techniques being used in Iraq here in the Pentagon."
Also missing are three documents relating to a visit in late summer by Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller's to Iraq to provide suggestions on improving interrogations, officials said. They include Gen. Miller's written report about a visit to Abu Ghraib, and briefings he delivered upon entering and leaving Iraq, officials said. At the time, Gen. Miller was overseeing the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and is currently in charge of all U.S. detention facilities in Iraq.
Senior U.S. officials have testified that neither Mr. Rumsfeld nor his senior staff members were formally briefed on the results of Gen. Miller's visit. In a press conference Wednesday, Mr. DiRita also said no documents were purposely withheld. "The perception that was left was unfortunate, which is that we were somehow trying to withhold something from the committee," he said. "That was certainly not the case."
The Pentagon has asked Gen. Taguba, who is in Kuwait, to send a complete copy of his report, including all attachments, to Congress. Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R., Va.) said in a memo to committee members, "I continue to believe that the department is working in good faith with the committee to provide a complete copy of the Taguba Report."
aww, poor snow. "accidentally" holding Fannie Mae debt, and he lost money to boot ...
Reuters
UPDATE - U.S. Treasury's Snow held mortgage company debt
Wednesday May 26, 10:41 pm ET
(Updates asset totals, income)
WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow unknowingly held more than $10 million of debt issued by controversial housing finance giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) from February 2003 through May 2004, the Treasury Department disclosed on Wednesday.
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The debt was bought accidentally by Snow's broker, a Treasury Department spokesman said, after an apparent miscommunication over Snow's efforts to divest his financial holdings on taking the helm at the department in 2003.
The debt securities were sold or matured within days of their discovery, Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols told reporters. Treasury also released a legal opinion from the Treasury's ethics lawyer that found the holdings did not represent a conflict of interest, although the official directed they be sold to prevent future potential conflicts.
'VERY REGRETTABLE'
Treasury has been pushing to gain a stronger oversight role over the government-sponsored enterprises, which critics say derive special benefits from being perceived in financial markets as almost as secure as U.S. Treasury debt itself.
Nichols said Snow had told his broker to invest in Treasury debt and, believing his instructions had been carried out, did not check his periodic financial statements.
"He views this as very regrettable," Nichols said.
The debt was discovered on May 10 after a review of Snow's draft financial statement and, ironically, after a speech Snow gave to a bankers' group in which he stressed the need for "a credible regulator" for the government-sponsored enterprises.
Snow actually lost money on the transactions. According to Treasury, the worth of the debt securities totaled about $10.38 million when they were sold on May 14, a loss of about $478,000 from when they were bought.
Despite the opinion of Kenneth Schmalzbach, Treasury's assistant general counsel and designated ethics official, clearing Snow of any conflicts in the matter, Snow sent a letter on Wednesday asking the Treasury's inspector general to review the matter.
Snow's financial disclosure form showed 2003 assets of between about $43 million and $128 million. That compared with the previous year's report that showed assets worth between $77 million and $295 million.
In 2003, a hefty chunk of Snow's income came from a retirement package from his former company, railroad giant CSX Corp. (NYSE:CSX - News), the disclosure form showed. Snow received about $72 million in CSX-related income, according to the form.
leading indicators leading down ...
Growth signals turn yellow
One of the better economic forecasters around says the economy will slow dramatically over the next three to six months. But don’t run for the exits just yet.
By Jon D. Markman
Economic forecasts are like bellybuttons. Everyone’s got one. But a few are worth more than others, and the J-Lo of U.S. ecoGrowth signals turn yellow
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One of the better economic forecasters around says the economy will slow dramatically over the next three to six months. But don’t run for the exits just yet.
By Jon D. Markman
Economic forecasts are like bellybuttons. Everyone’s got one. But a few are worth more than others, and the J-Lo of U.S. economic forecasting in the past few years is Lakshman Achuthan at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York -- one of the few who accurately forecast the last recession and recovery.
In recent weeks, Achuthan’s navel-gazing has produced a picture almost as disturbing as the movie “Gigli.” He says the U.S. economy is on track to slow dramatically over the next three to six months -- an unexpected turn of events that could threaten the president’s re-election bid, frustrate job-seekers and potentially jeopardize corporate expansion plans.
The forecast is based on an abrupt downshift in his organization’s venerable Weekly Leading Index. The index forecast the 2001 U.S. recession in mid-2000 at a time when most economists and corporations saw only sunny skies ahead, and in turn forecast a recovery in 2002 at a time of much bear-market despair.
A downturn ahead?
The WLI is composed of eight signals that independently take the pulse of the economy at key pressure points. Some of those pressure points are still positive, but the majority have turned negative in recent weeks despite the upbeat outlook articulated by federal monetary and political officials, not to mention Wall Street brokerages.
The growth rate of the index, in fact, has hit its lowest level since late June 2003 -- a time when the model’s expectations for economic strength were, with good reason, ramping up. Now the expectations are ramping down. “It’s a pervasive decline,” Achuthan said in an interview from his office in New York. “And there’s not a lot countering it.”
It’s not just oil, which is a relatively minor factor in the economic forecast, weighing on the index. A host of reasons is driving ECRI’s model into negative territory, among them: the flattening money supply, diminishing mortgage applications, sinking industrial prices, falling stock prices and rising corporate bond yields. Rising employment and narrowing bond risk spreads are the only two positives it sees on the horizon.
Meet Jon Markman
at the Las Vegas
Money Show -- for free.
Achuthan, who has just published an excellent book, “Beating the Business Cycle,” about the methods ECRI uses to forecast the economy, says the growth slowdown is “by no means a three-alarm fire.” He just wants to warn businesses and individuals that the above-trend 4.5%-5% growth the country is now enjoying is likely to start gliding back down toward the long-term trend of 3% to 3.5% growth.
Economy on the cusp
The indicators are not plunging, so there is no immediate threat of a shift to below-trend growth, or recession. But they do show that the economy is on the cusp of a transition from an acceleration to a deceleration phase, and it’s that differential in pace that puts equity investors on edge. It would be good for bond holders, because if it occurs the Federal Reserve may not have to raise its interest-rate target as fast as the consensus now believes. But it’s not so good if you’re an entrepreneur who’s considering doubling the size of your factory on the belief that consumers will keep spending over the next six months like they spent over the last 12 months.
Why are those negative indicators important? Let’s take them one at a time.
* When corporate bond yields rise, companies must spend more to borrow money. Bulls say that rates are still historically low, but history tells us that the rate of change of interest rates is as important as the absolute rate levels. Ask any corporate finance spreadsheet jockey, and he’ll tell you that when you plug higher borrowing costs into the rate-of-return forecast of an investment, the length of time it takes for the company to make its money back stretches further than the comfort zone of many executives.
* Falling industrial prices, as measured by the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index, published by the Journal of Commerce, are a negative because they are a leading indicator of future activity in manufacturing. When manufacturers foresee a slowdown in sales, they moderate their ordering of raw materials. Leading the decline at this time are the prices of steel, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, hides and crude oil.
* Falling stock prices, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($INX), are a negative because share values historically correlate well with investors’ profit expectations. The recent decline suggests that investors believe that profit news over the next six months is not likely to surprise on the upside, and may in fact fail to match expectations.
* The flattening money supply is not a big negative, but it’s important because it represents a restriction in the amount of stimulus pushed into the economy by the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve. More money greases the skids for the economy and helps it grow -- but it also results in the potential for higher inflation and dangerous levels of speculation. A withdrawal of funds, sometimes referred to as the Fed “taking away the punchbowl,” forces businesses and investor to act more soberly with fewer dollars.
* Diminishing mortgage applications for new home purchases is a red flag because the housing sector has been a major factor in economic growth over the past two years. If fewer new homes are built, the negative impact will be felt by plywood manufacturers to lawn care suppliers, furniture makers and concrete quarries.
* Narrowing risk spreads, which mean that the difference between the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and an investment-grade corporate bond is growing smaller, is a positive because it shows the bond market is giving companies a vote of confidence. Bond investors are showing that they think even organizations that are not perfect credit risks will fulfill their payout obligations -- a sign they don’t think there’s another nasty recession looming.
The wild card
None of these factors is as alarming as they were in 2000 or 2001. But the wild card now is the consumer, who accounts for two-thirds of the economy. In the past two years, individuals cashed in on low interest rates to withdraw money from their homes and rack up credit card bills. If higher rates and pricier energy finally lead consumers to back off on their spending spree, the economy will depend on businesses to take up the slack.
Businesses are doing some of that already -- adding employees and capital expenditures in sync with improved profits. But a smooth handoff is never assured. Achuthan compares this point in the business cycle to a relay race. “We’re watching for the passing of the baton between the consumer and corporations,” he said. “It’s tense, and you expect it to happen, but there’s always the potential for a costly mistake.”
Mistakes of over- and underconfidence are inherent in the business cycle. Up-cycles occur, and are reinforced, as a positive feedback loop develops: Improved economic activity engenders more employment, and happy workers buy more things, generating more economic activity. On the downswing, the virtuous cycle morphs into its evil twin, the vicious cycle, as a cutback in demand leads to cutbacks in employment, which in turn lowers demand further.
The inflection points between up-cycles and down-cycles come about as a result of individuals’ emotional reactions to the swings. Right now, most people and businesses believe that the economy is strengthening. At some point, they become so optimistic that they begin to seed the potential downturn by overbuilding factory capacity, taking on too much debt and generally underestimating risks. Instability develops, and the economy becomes vulnerable to shocks. As the downswing emerges and strengthens, people and companies ultimately become too pessimistic, see danger around every corner and overshoot their risk aversion until a positive shock -- sometimes in the form of fiscal or monetary stimulus -- starts a new up-cycle.
In his book, Achuthan explains that a recognizable sequence of events transpires in the ECRI indicators before the inflection points of both extremes in the cycles, and he proposes a way that individuals who are neither economists nor statisticians can take advantage of them.nomic forecasting in the past few years is Lakshman Achuthan at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York -- one of the few who accurately forecast the last recession and recovery.
In recent weeks, Achuthan’s navel-gazing has produced a picture almost as disturbing as the movie “Gigli.” He says the U.S. economy is on track to slow dramatically over the next three to six months -- an unexpected turn of events that could threaten the president’s re-election bid, frustrate job-seekers and potentially jeopardize corporate expansion plans.
The forecast is based on an abrupt downshift in his organization’s venerable Weekly Leading Index. The index forecast the 2001 U.S. recession in mid-2000 at a time when most economists and corporations saw only sunny skies ahead, and in turn forecast a recovery in 2002 at a time of much bear-market despair.
A downturn ahead?
The WLI is composed of eight signals that independently take the pulse of the economy at key pressure points. Some of those pressure points are still positive, but the majority have turned negative in recent weeks despite the upbeat outlook articulated by federal monetary and political officials, not to mention Wall Street brokerages.
The growth rate of the index, in fact, has hit its lowest level since late June 2003 -- a time when the model’s expectations for economic strength were, with good reason, ramping up. Now the expectations are ramping down. “It’s a pervasive decline,” Achuthan said in an interview from his office in New York. “And there’s not a lot countering it.”
It’s not just oil, which is a relatively minor factor in the economic forecast, weighing on the index. A host of reasons is driving ECRI’s model into negative territory, among them: the flattening money supply, diminishing mortgage applications, sinking industrial prices, falling stock prices and rising corporate bond yields. Rising employment and narrowing bond risk spreads are the only two positives it sees on the horizon.
Achuthan, who has just published an excellent book, “Beating the Business Cycle,” about the methods ECRI uses to forecast the economy, says the growth slowdown is “by no means a three-alarm fire.” He just wants to warn businesses and individuals that the above-trend 4.5%-5% growth the country is now enjoying is likely to start gliding back down toward the long-term trend of 3% to 3.5% growth.
Economy on the cusp
The indicators are not plunging, so there is no immediate threat of a shift to below-trend growth, or recession. But they do show that the economy is on the cusp of a transition from an acceleration to a deceleration phase, and it’s that differential in pace that puts equity investors on edge. It would be good for bond holders, because if it occurs the Federal Reserve may not have to raise its interest-rate target as fast as the consensus now believes. But it’s not so good if you’re an entrepreneur who’s considering doubling the size of your factory on the belief that consumers will keep spending over the next six months like they spent over the last 12 months.
Why are those negative indicators important? Let’s take them one at a time.
* When corporate bond yields rise, companies must spend more to borrow money. Bulls say that rates are still historically low, but history tells us that the rate of change of interest rates is as important as the absolute rate levels. Ask any corporate finance spreadsheet jockey, and he’ll tell you that when you plug higher borrowing costs into the rate-of-return forecast of an investment, the length of time it takes for the company to make its money back stretches further than the comfort zone of many executives.
* Falling industrial prices, as measured by the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index, published by the Journal of Commerce, are a negative because they are a leading indicator of future activity in manufacturing. When manufacturers foresee a slowdown in sales, they moderate their ordering of raw materials. Leading the decline at this time are the prices of steel, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, hides and crude oil.
* Falling stock prices, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($INX), are a negative because share values historically correlate well with investors’ profit expectations. The recent decline suggests that investors believe that profit news over the next six months is not likely to surprise on the upside, and may in fact fail to match expectations.
* The flattening money supply is not a big negative, but it’s important because it represents a restriction in the amount of stimulus pushed into the economy by the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve. More money greases the skids for the economy and helps it grow -- but it also results in the potential for higher inflation and dangerous levels of speculation. A withdrawal of funds, sometimes referred to as the Fed “taking away the punchbowl,” forces businesses and investor to act more soberly with fewer dollars.
* Diminishing mortgage applications for new home purchases is a red flag because the housing sector has been a major factor in economic growth over the past two years. If fewer new homes are built, the negative impact will be felt by plywood manufacturers to lawn care suppliers, furniture makers and concrete quarries.
* Narrowing risk spreads, which mean that the difference between the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and an investment-grade corporate bond is growing smaller, is a positive because it shows the bond market is giving companies a vote of confidence. Bond investors are showing that they think even organizations that are not perfect credit risks will fulfill their payout obligations -- a sign they don’t think there’s another nasty recession looming.
The wild card
None of these factors is as alarming as they were in 2000 or 2001. But the wild card now is the consumer, who accounts for two-thirds of the economy. In the past two years, individuals cashed in on low interest rates to withdraw money from their homes and rack up credit card bills. If higher rates and pricier energy finally lead consumers to back off on their spending spree, the economy will depend on businesses to take up the slack.
Businesses are doing some of that already -- adding employees and capital expenditures in sync with improved profits. But a smooth handoff is never assured. Achuthan compares this point in the business cycle to a relay race. “We’re watching for the passing of the baton between the consumer and corporations,” he said. “It’s tense, and you expect it to happen, but there’s always the potential for a costly mistake.”
Mistakes of over- and underconfidence are inherent in the business cycle. Up-cycles occur, and are reinforced, as a positive feedback loop develops: Improved economic activity engenders more employment, and happy workers buy more things, generating more economic activity. On the downswing, the virtuous cycle morphs into its evil twin, the vicious cycle, as a cutback in demand leads to cutbacks in employment, which in turn lowers demand further.
The inflection points between up-cycles and down-cycles come about as a result of individuals’ emotional reactions to the swings. Right now, most people and businesses believe that the economy is strengthening. At some point, they become so optimistic that they begin to seed the potential downturn by overbuilding factory capacity, taking on too much debt and generally underestimating risks. Instability develops, and the economy becomes vulnerable to shocks. As the downswing emerges and strengthens, people and companies ultimately become too pessimistic, see danger around every corner and overshoot their risk aversion until a positive shock -- sometimes in the form of fiscal or monetary stimulus -- starts a new up-cycle.
In his book, Achuthan explains that a recognizable sequence of events transpires in the ECRI indicators before the inflection points of both extremes in the cycles, and he proposes a way that individuals who are neither economists nor statisticians can take advantage of them.
'Statistically, yes, we had five green days in a row, getting to the point of "very long strings" these are rare'
hmm, yes, 55 of them on the nasdaq. coincidentally, though, the last streak of 6 was 05/22/03 - 05/30/03.
"teaching them to fish is the real way to help them"
or even just how to shop for fish. (you have to look in their eyes!)
"maybe even one red close."
hmm. is that likely before intc mid-quarter update tomorrow night?
well rhat bears that out. and there wasn't even a spark to set it off. (i suspect its all motivated by the short interest and the recent resale of its convertible debt.)
the fish rots from the head ....
from hindustantimes.com:
Bush campaign ran from Noida call centre
KA Badarinath and Prerna K Mishra
New Delhi, May 16
The political split in the US over outsourcing notwithstanding, till very recently the fund-raising and vote-seeking campaign for the Republican Party was done partly out of India. And this was handled by two call centres located in our own friendly neighbourhood in Noida and Gurgaon.
For 14 months between May 16, 2002 and July 22, 2003, HCL BPO Services — the 100 per cent-owned subsidiary of Shiv Nadar-promoted HCL Technologies — had some 125 agents working in seven teams soliciting financial contributions for the Republican Party. US presidential elections are slated for November 2004.
The mandate for the teams was to mobilise support for President George W. Bush and solicit political contributions ranging between $5 and $3,000 from lakhs of registered Republican voters. The voters’ database was provided by the Republican National Committee (RNC), the party’s premier political organisation.
The contract for running the campaigns was originally awarded by RNC to Washington-based Capital Communications Group that provides consulting services to government and private clients for cultural and political networking. For cost and efficiencies gains, the company outsourced the work to HCL Technologies that in turn sent it offshore.
When contacted by Hindustan Times, sources close to the deal within HCL BPO Services said, “We work under a non-disclosure clause with most of our clients (barring British Telecom) and hence would not be in a position to comment on any such deal.”
According to the deal details, at any point in time, 75 agents worked on a $9.25 per hour per person billing rate, and contacted at least 20,000 voters through an automatic dialer. Sources confirmed that on a conservative estimate at least 80 lakh registered republican voters have been contacted.
During the period, HCL ran nearly six to seven campaigns on various issues, some in the form of simple ‘yes or no’ polls on issues like ‘Pro Choice Pro Life’ that tried to capture the sentiment in the US audiences about abortion.
There were other campaigns that were of the fund raising nature where the voter would pledge an amount to the party. The RNC would do the follow up in the US for fund retrieval.
The target for the team was to get a pledge of $400 per day. Going by conservative estimates, at least funds worth $10 million were committed for President Bush through the BPO centres in India.
But the million-dollar question is why was the contract called off? Insiders say the growing resentment in the US audiences against outsourcing to India and strong reactions from Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry were at the root of capping the contract. The anti-outsourcing lobby within the Republicans also had a hand in ending the contract, insiders divulged. But according to HCL sources one consideration was non-viability in the last few months after having covered most voters from the RNC database.
Maybe the Indian political establishment can take a lesson from or two from Republicans in US and outsource its fund raising campaign during next general elections.
s korea is closed for a holiday.
um. the market, i mean. not the whole country :-P
of course, the first four months look nothing like this year, since that's showing a narrow range of ~5%, peaking in april.
"Anyone know when is Google IPO?"
this summer, but you'll know when everyone else does. publicity will probably be huge.
6 months from now this will all be water under the bridge and a return to normalcy will ensue.
actually, if you're right, then with all the excess capacity online now, we should overshoot normalcy and prices should crash. at least, that's what my paranoid mind says ...
they can't interrupt the REALITY shows!!!
oh yeah, its opposite the swan, i think. isn't that one of those infomercials for plastic surgery or fine haberdashery or something?
There is no question that this is the single most important speech in George W. Bush's presidency.
oddly, it will be at prime time and carried by none of the major broadcasters (although fox makes it available to affiliates ...)
Not quite OT: polls
this could show up in consumer confidence wednesday. rasmussen's confidence numbers also point down. ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ ).
from cbs news:
Poll: Bush Ratings Continue Slide
NEW YORK, May 24, 2004
Mr. Bush's overall job approval rating has continued to decline. Forty-one percent approve of the job he is doing as president, while 52 percent disapprove — the lowest overall job rating of his presidency.
(CBS) The war in Iraq continues to tarnish the approval ratings of President Bush. Evaluations of the way Mr. Bush is handling the war in Iraq, how he is handling foreign policy, and how he is handling his job overall are now at their lowest levels ever in his presidency.
Mr. Bush's overall job approval rating has continued to decline. Forty-one percent approve of the job he is doing as president, while 52 percent disapprove — the lowest overall job rating of his presidency. Two weeks ago, 44 percent approved. A year ago, two-thirds did.
Sixty-one percent of Americans now disapprove of the way Mr. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while just 34 percent approve.
As concern about the situation in Iraq grows, 65 percent now say the country is on the wrong track — matching the highest number ever recorded in CBS News Polls, which began asking this question in the mid-1980's. Only 30 percent currently say things in this country are headed in the right direction. One year ago, in April 2003, 56 percent of Americans said the country was headed in the right direction.
The last time the percentage that said the country was on the wrong track was as high as it is now was back in November 1994. Then, Republicans swept into control of both houses of Congress for the first time in decades.
Majorities disapprove of the way Mr. Bush is handling foreign policy and the economy. Terrorism remains the only positive area for the president — a majority of 51 percent approve of the way he is handling the campaign against terrorism. But that number matches his lowest rating ever on terrorism.
Just 37 percent — the lowest number in his presidency — now approve of Mr. Bush's handling of foreign policy, while 56 percent disapprove. Mr. Bush's ratings on the economy are similar: 36 percent approve of his handling of it and 57 percent disapprove.
On the campaign against terrorism, however, Mr. Bush receives more positive ratings. Fifty-one percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing, while 42 percent disapprove. Fifty percent say his administration's policies have made the country safer from terrorism, not much changed from what people said a month ago.
THE ECONOMY
Americans' perceptions of the country's economy are similar to what they were last month. 52 percent think the economy is in good shape, while 47 percent think it is in bad shape.
While more Americans say the economy is good than bad, the public's outlook for the economy is not very optimistic. Just 23 percent (down from 30 percent last month) say the economy is getting better, 32 percent (up from 26 percent last month) say it is getting worse. Forty-three percent think it is staying the same.
Little good economic news has been heard by the public, despite the improvement in job growth in March and April. Nearly half continue to say the administration's policies have decreased the number of jobs in the U.S. Twenty percent say those policies have increased the number of jobs, up six points since March. A quarter thinks this administration's policies have had no effect on the number of jobs.
Many Americans remain concerned that they or someone in their household may lose their job over the next year. Sixty percent are very or somewhat concerned, while 49 percent are not at all concerned about losing their job.
The economy and the war in Iraq are the two top issues on voters' minds in this presidential election. Twenty-five percent mention the economy and jobs as the issue they want the candidates to discuss and 26 percent of voters say they would like to hear about the war in Iraq. Following these top issues are healthcare and Medicare with 8 percent, education with 4 percent, and rising gas prices — a new concern — with 4 percent.
This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1,113 adults, interviewed by telephone May 20-23, 2004. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample.
curious thing. has anyone noticed that william shatner's head keeps getting bigger and bigger? or is the rest of his body shrinking?
re NACL: actually, NaCl. captialization counts
"To be fair, they were also selling like 1999, back in 2003, as the rally occured."
smart, considering lower prices now and lower volumes ...
re current sentiment readings: here's the chart http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm
re fund flows:
http://www.amgdata.com
http://www.trimtabs.com
> Q1 is always a big inflow of 1st of yr money
perhaps, speaking relatively, but last year i believe they were kinda flat (flows still going into bonds) and the year before that, primiarly outflows. q1 2000 was off the scale (blowoff). q1 2004 beat it.
Bearishness is as thick as the bullishness was in January.
hmm. we must be reading different things.
there are catalysts for a rally in july: everyone is bearish on the handover at the end of the month (contrarian); fed will likely raise rates for the first time; opec will probably increase output (officially, anyway, since - as i've read - actual production already outpaces the proposed limits already).
joe buttipluglia says 'its rally time!'
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Data could spur a stock breakout
But Iraq and rising oil prices could spoil the party
By Mark Cotton, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:26 AM ET May 22, 2004
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A heavy week for economic data could set the stage for a rally in U.S. stocks, barring any damaging news out of Iraq or a further upward spike in crude oil prices.
Joe Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan, Beck & Co., said the stock market is "at the lower end of a trading range," from which it can rebound.
"We can lift off from here, perhaps rallying 3 to 5 percent over the next couple of months," said Battipaglia.
In the last two weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been unable to break out of a relatively narrow 200-point range as concern over the prospect of higher interest rates, rising oil prices and the damaging headlines out of Iraq plagued the markets.
But Battipaglia said investors now "fully expect rates to rise and are becoming comfortable with that notion." If oil prices had not become an issue, the market could "potentially" have begun to rally as early as this week.
"If we can see oil prices begin to abate, with the economic data next week confirming expansion of the economy, that will be enough to rally on."
CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld was more guarded about the impact of the data on equities.
"We don't expect economic data to have much sway on markets until the next round of payrolls and CPI reports in June," said Shenfeld in his note on the week ahead.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was up 29.10 points, or 0.3 percent, at 9,966.74, ending 0.5 percent lower on the week.
The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) rose 15.50 points, or 0.8 percent, to 1,912.09. In the last week, the tech-rich index gained 0.4 percent.
The S&P 500 index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) was up 4.40 points, or 0.4 percent, to 1,093.59, posting a 0.2 percent decline on the week.
Economic data
The first key economic report for investors next week will be the May consumer confidence report from the Conference Board due out on Tuesday.
The report is expected to show an uptick in consumer confidence from the previous month. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch are forecasting a reading of 93.1 compared with 92.9 in April.
Battipaglia said Wednesday's durable goods report is likely to show a dip in orders for April but only because the March report was so strong.
April durable goods orders are forecast to slip 0.3 percent compared with a 5 percent jump in March, according to analysts polled by CBS MarketWatch.
Further evidence of the robust health of the U.S. economy is likely to come from a fresh estimate of first quarter GDP growth. At the end of April, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew at a 4.2 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first three months of the year, the third straight quarter of strong growth.
The average estimate of analysts polled by CBS MarketWatch is for Thursday's GDP reading to show the U.S. economy growing at a 4.3 percent clip in the first quarter, up a tenth of a percent from the April estimate.
Investors will be hoping the May reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, which tracks manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, supplies further evidence that the economy is continuing to expand. The data are due on Friday.
"We're hoping it comes in well above 62, which would reinforce the notion that the economy does have durability," said Battipaglia.
Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch are forecasting a reading of 62.9 percent compared with 67 in the prior month. Any reading above 50 signifies business expansion.
A final rallying catalyst for stocks could be Friday's consumer spending figures for April. Investors will be seeking reassurance that the consumer has in no way curbed his spending habits.
The forecast is for spending to rise 0.3 percent in April compared with a 0.4 percent rise in March, according to analysts polled by CBS MarketWatch.
Other data of interest to investors will be reports on new and existing home sales for April and the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May.
Food for thought
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, investors will only have a smattering of earnings to digest.
Krispy Kreme's (KKD: news, chart, profile) first-quarter results, however, may prove difficult.
At the beginning of May, the doughnut maker warned its fiscal first-quarter and 2005 earnings would miss expectations, as sales of packaged doughnuts to grocery stores have been hurt by increased consumer interest in low-carbohydrate diets.
Krispy Kreme said it now expects earnings excluding special items of 23 cents for its quarter ending April.
The company is also facing at least five class-action lawsuits charging that it misled investors about its earnings potential.
Campbell Soup (CPB: news, chart, profile) reports its fiscal third-quarter results on Monday. The Thomson First Call average estimate is for earnings of 32 cents on revenue of $1.63 billion.
For H.J. Heinz (HNZ: news, chart, profile), fiscal fourth-quarter earnings Tuesday are expected to get a boost from a strong euro, according to Deutsche Bank analyst David Nelson.
Nelson said 90 percent of the company's earnings growth has come from currency benefits due in large part to the fact that 40 percent of the company's sales are made in Europe.
Nelson is expecting earnings of 59 cents a share, up 14 percent from the prior year, and at the high end of the company's own forecast of earnings in a range of 57 to 59 cents a share.
The analyst said 2004 will mark the first year since 1999 that Heinz has met its commitment of earnings per share growth of between 8 and 10 percent.
Nelson said the big question on investors' minds will be whether the company abandons this commitment.
Costco Wholesale (COST: news, chart, profile) also reports its fiscal third quarter results on Thursday.
In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan analyst Shari Eberts said he is forecasting earnings to rise 9.7 percent to 36 cents a shares, in the middle of the company's own range of 35 to 37 cents a share, but 2 cents below consensus.
Eberts said earnings could be his estimate if "rising gas prices prove less detrimental to the gross margin than we assume."
Mark Cotton is a markets reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com
dunno, but u have been saying that during weeks of big mutual fund outflows: $2.4B the week of may 12, and somewhat less, like $700mm last week. but still ... inflows peaked in q1, surpassing 2000 q1. that's alot of folks underwater ...
"Doesn't the CIA normally require more lead-time in order to put together this type of operation?"
awww, never underestimate president rove.
"I agree, especially if we are successful in thwarting the attack."
thwarting a terror attack wouldn't have nearly the effect on public opinion that an actual attack would.
5-day RSI boys ....
note that they closed their position today with a reading of 55+, and a profit of 2%. looked questionable there for a while.
oh goodness. "Granted the US has made some mistakes, but it amazes me that you seem to want our system to fail. That would hurt millions of Americans."
isn't that a bit of an overstatement? zeev himself forecasts new lows next year or after ... ya really think everyone's gonna make it safely out and into cash? for everyone, its just a question of timing.
but hey, didn't fed reserves say his goodbyes a month or so ago?
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market content: looks like a failed bull pennant on 5 min on jcp after tagging 35 again. or is it a bull flag?
nah, i'd think that would be an up move. like here on the ftse, very sharp drop, someone seems to have caught it and walking it down slowly .... germany dax suddenly lost 0.5%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTSE&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
wow, did something just happened? the bourses all made a pretty sudden simultaneous drop. or maybe that just happens on-the-hour ...
you're welcome.
well, we'll see i guess
i thought the ssb semi analyst was actually a "good guy". wasn't that john joseph (?), or has he moved on or retired or been locked up somewhere?