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Hi Allen..
Welcome aboard! Tom posted a message 37332 that pretty much defines how the oscillator is used when using the VWave.
Hope that helps and it's great to see the excellent and thoughtful responses to your questions.
Take care.
Jon
VWave for the Week of July 18th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .07
And thank you for being such a compassionate boss, Tom!
OUT OF OFFICE
I'll post the VWave later this week.
Jon
VWave for the Week of July 11th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .04
VWave for the Week of July 4th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .08
Hi Steve...
It would be nice if all of us could get together someday for an AIM Gathering.
Hear ye, hear ye! I agree.
Take care.
Jon
Hi Frugal..
When I started AIMING precious metals mutual funds years ago, I ran into the same problem especially with the volatility in that sector. If the fund was near a buy or sell point toward the end of the day, I would monitor the XAU and HUI to get a general idea of the percentage that index was up or down. I would use that percentage to determine my buy or sell order. So if the fund was at 40 from the previous day and the XAU and HUI were up 2.5% then I would add 2.5% to 40 (1.00) and use 41 as my selling price before the market closed that day. I didn't always hit it right on the money but it's often very close. AIM will adjust for the next buy or sell anyway. For VTSMX you might consider using the ETF VTI.
Take care.
Jon
VWave for the Week of June 27th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .09
VWave for the Week of June 20th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .09
VWave for the Week of June 13th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .10
VWave for the Week of June 6th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: .11
VWave for the Week of May 30th
Individual stocks: 60.67
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 40.45
Oscillator: -1.44
VWave for the Week of May 23rd
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: 0 (Current VWave and 26 week moving average are the same number, therefore oscillator at 0)
VWave for the Week of May 16th
Individual stocks: 60.67
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 40.45
Oscillator: -1.56
Interesting take on financial goals vs a system (i.e. AIM)
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/17/goals.aspx
Thanks, Tom.
"The stuff I review weekly shows primarily as neutral and have been falling a bit, too. Nothing particularly scary is showing up."
I agree. But then I ask myself what was the color of that swan?!
Take care.
Jon
VWave for the Week of May 9th
Individual stocks: 60.67
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 40.45
Oscillator: -1.69
VWave for the Week of May 2nd
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.26
VWave for the Week of April 25th
Individual stocks: 60.67
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 40.45
Oscillator: -1.84
VWave for the Week of April 18th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.43
VWave for the Week of April 11th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.47
VWave for the Week of April 4th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.51
VWave for the Week of March 28th
Individual stocks: 63.79
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.01
VWave for the Week of March 21st
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.47
VWave for the Week of March 14th
Individual stocks: 63.79
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.06
VWave for the Week of March 7th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.42
VWave for the Week of February 28th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.45
VWave for the Week of February 21st
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.49
VWave for the Week of February 14th
Individual stocks: 62.23
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 41.49
Oscillator: -.53
Hi Steve..
That certainly makes Mr. Lichello's case of always having some dry powder! Good job.
Take care.
Jon
Hi Steve..
Yup..it certainly was timely.
Since Tom mined the numbers all the way back to January 1982, 65.36 is actually a new all-time high for the VWave cash level.
A word of caution: Please never consider shooting the messenger!
Take care and hold on.
Jon
VWave for the Week of February 7th
Individual stocks: 63.79
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: .99
VWave for the Week of January 31st
Individual stocks: 65.36 (New High)
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 43.57
Oscillator: 2.64
Hi Tom...
Maybe it had to do with the VWave hitting "13" consecutive weeks at a new high!
Take care.
Jon
VWave for the Week of January 24th
Individual stocks: 63.79 (13 consecutive weeks)
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.28
VWave for the Week of January 17th
Individual stocks: 63.79 (12 consecutive Weeks)
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.38
VWave for the Week of January 10th
Individual stocks: 63.79 (11 consecutive Weeks)
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.49
VWave for the Week of January 3rd
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Individual stocks: 63.79 (10 Weeks)
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.61
VWave for the Week of December 27th
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Individual stocks: 63.79
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.74
VWave for the Week of December 20th
Individual stocks: 63.79
Diversified mutual funds
or portfolio: 42.53
Oscillator: 1.87
Hi Tom..
Yup..we seem to be stuck on that 63.79 seven straight weeks. Your technical analysis individual sounds a little bit like a 'sell to the greedy' person!
I have a quote that I picked up from Dan Sullivan about 25 years ago that I often reread when I start to think about making something as simple as AIM more complex.
'Over the years we have listened to inordinately bright young men and women explain the most complicated and clearly sophisticated trading systems. These are systems that they have labored over, nurtured, expended huge amounts of money and time upon, but rarely make money for those employing them. Complexity breeds confusion; simplicity breeds an ability to make decisions swiftly, and to admit error when wrong. Simplicity breeds elegance.' To me that is AIM.
He goes on to say, 'The greatest traders/investors we've had the honor to know over the years continue to employ the simplest trading schemes. They draw simple trend lines (i.e. 26 week MA), they see and act on simple technical signals, they react swiftly and they attribute it to their knowledge gained over the years that complexity is the home of the young and untested.'