Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
meixatech, good post.
<Did R&R downgrade merely to take advantage of profits derived from shorting IDMI? It sure wouldn’t surprise me – being a forensic expert, I have seen surprising behaviors by opposing “reputable” experts apparently in the name of compensation. Where there is money to be made, graft and corruption are usually also found.>
R&R's "out," is that this is their "opinion."
Being a forensic expert, maybe you have testified in court. I have over 20 years legal experience, been through jury trials. Attorney's, experts, can be hired guns, who will say and do anything. I have seen attorney's and people not telling the truth in open court in front of a Judge and jury.
Anyway, my point, R&R could be just hired guns. IMO, a lot of traders got caught on the wrong end, shorting IDM. Maybe today, a lot of them had the chance to get out.
I was really curious about IDM's price action on the high volume, when it stopped at $3.88. Then Palo Alto filed, with the 5M+ share accumulation, and I thought, if that only got the stock to $3.88, we might go back down. But then again, we were under $1.00 less than a month ago.
In 6/07: five-year warrants to purchase 2.4M additional common shares at an exercise price of $4.06. I do not know if all of these warrants are held by Palo Alto.
So these expire in 2012.
Do not know about the other ones.
Hi Meixatech, good to hear from you! Yes, were looking over the abyss there for a while when IDM was under a $1.00, but we hung in there (still have all of my shares). Yes, the nefarious tactics of the FDA are incredible. Perhaps about to change?
So Pfzier spends about $7B on R&D a year, that's $580.3M a month.
IDM's current market cap at $3.05 is 76M! Something is wrong. Even at $6 a share, IDM's market cap is still only $152M, at $12 it is $304M, less than one month of Pfzier's R&D spending!
CEGE at $2.36 market cap is 184M, DNDN at $5.87 is 496M and ONTY at $3.65 is 71M.
I am rambling here, so forgive me, but ??
Barron's 2/18/08 edition, pages 34-35, have interesting comments by Joe Rosenberg, Chief Investment Strategist, Loews Corp.
"Q. What about Pfizer?
I liked Pfizer two years ago, but I'm less bullish now. The stock has done very little. ... but the company has very little to show for the $35B(!) or so that it has spent on research and development in the past five years. If you spend $35B on R&D, you ought to be showing incremental earnings of $5B annually, but Pfizer isn't."
"Q. Pfizer's drug pipeline is pretty bare.
Yes. It's easy for me to be a Monday-morning quarterback, but the board at Pfizer ought to be asking whether it should continue to spend $7B a year on R&D, given the company's record."
OK. IDM has 25.15M shares outstanding, with about 3.2M warrants, for a total of 28.35M shares.
28.35 x $ 1.00= $ 28,350,000M
28.35 x $10.00= $ 283,500,000M
28.25 x $100.00= $ 2,835,000,000B
So, IDM, at $100 a share, is about 40% of Pfizer's R&D spending for one year.
Any comments?
We have 2.4M warrants at $4.06, plus the 782K, =3.182M warrants.
In 6/07: five-year warrants to purchase 2.4M additional common shares at an exercise price of $4.06. I do not know if all of these warrants are held by Palo Alto.
Also, there was a private placement in 2/07, where Palo Alto led: the Company issued warrants to these investors for the purchase of about 782K additional shares of IDM common stock priced at $0.22 per share ... . The warrants have an exercise price of @$3.243 per share.
Palo Alto files today: holds 8.13M shares of IDM!!
Palo Alto added 5.96M shares of IDM in a report filed with the SEC today, 2/15/08.
Now Palo Alto holds 8.13M shares of IDM (they held 2.17M before).
So now we know who the accumulator was starting January 28, 2008.
Thanks to aacallwave on Yahoo mb for this!
Hi Blue, CXTI.pk Very dangerous, no real filings since Q1-2007. But filed an 8K last week saying CEO resigned three months ago! But the company is still there.
Went from $.02 to $0.28, but the key is the heavy volume. Could just be a pump and dump. Anyone have any comments?
Also, any comments about IDMI?
GLTA
Hi JT. Hope you are well.
Any comments on the price action of IDMI this week? What a wild ride. I just held tight with my shares, but I wish it had stayed closer to $3 on Friday, closed at $1.68. Still, the news was very good and towards the end of 2008 and into 2009 could be positive for this company. Still, a long time away.
CXTI.pk filed an 8K this week, jumped from $0.04 to $0.10 on Friday. A lot of very dark clouds still surrounding this one though. But, I guess the company is still there, and if, IF, they start filing, this one could go ballistic.
What about ARUN, yikes?
Talk to you soon, Bow.
Hi JT. Damn ARUN getting hit today. I am not in yet, are you?
Any thoughts?
Bow
Great post surf, thanks.
Great surf! thanks. Yes, the success of IDM will help people- what a great thing in todays crazy world. (had to use public reply b/c do not have access to private m/b).
nice surf! I posted this on Yahoo couple of days ago:
If cancer has even touched you, your family or friends, you might understand the importance of what IDM is trying to do. This company is trying to do something good.
All this hostility and hen pecking, what nonsense. I have seen too many people dying from cancer, it is not fun, no hair, their life slipping away, usually in a very undignified way, filled with fear. What IDM means to me is helping cancer victims, that's it's goal.
Thanks to all the people posting informative, thoughtful items re: IDM, especially TZM. To all the bashers, all I can say is try to think about what IDM is trying to do and that cancer is an epidemic. If IDM survives, perhaps it can decrease the suffering of cancer victims, or better yet produce vaccines.
Let's get approval and get this company working towards our goal.
I have been holding this stock for too long and want this company to survive so bad that I pray we get approval.
Yes, me too. Any thoughts on approval? Thanks surf.
surf, where the heck are you? what do think is going on with IDMI?
Comments on elimination of uptick rule- IDM's chance of survival.
In 1/14/08 edition of Barron's in Roundtable, Pt.1, Mario Gabelli comments on the elimination of the uptick rule in July,'07 by SEC. "Its elimination last year was a disgrace. [The rule, which was eliminated in July, required short sales to occur at a price higher than the price of the previous trade, thus preventing short sellers from adding to a security's downward momentum.]" "Without the uptick rule, a computerized trading program can short, short and short, which has exacerbated the normal return of volatility."
I can not say that this is part of IDM's demise, but if, IF, IDM can get it's ducks in a row this time, if there was ever a chance of a company doing a 180, IMHO, it is IDM. If the playing field is level(?), I believe IDM has the products that can help cancer patients. No approval and IDM could be dead, which would be a shame. But then again, maybe this whole approval process is a sham, silently controlled by big pharma, or whoever. We should know re: EU in weeks and the FDA by mid 2008.
Hi JT, yes Happy New year 2008. Thank you for your note. So far 2008 has been a stinker. Still hanging on, feel like a bag holder right now. I will check out your suggestions. Hoping IMDI gets EU approval later this month, that would be a gift from heaven! We shall see.
As always, good investing, Cheers, Bow
Hi JT, thanks for the posts! Yes, if CALD starts hitting it's earnings estimates, we might see the $12.50 target price in 2008, for a 100%+ gain.
Good investing, cheers, Bow
Hi JT, Not holding any of those hoties. My best performer is SNCR. I am also holding CALD, which has gone nowhere yet, but 2008 earnings are estimated at $0.21 a share, with a $12.50 target price, currently at $5.25.
IDMI is at about $1.00, and got an extension re: approval of "Junovan" by EU to January. Any thoughts on what might happen? Either IDM is finding a partner to market "Junovan" in Europe, which would mean approval and about $4 to $5+ a share, or, if no EU approval, finding some way to survive as a company. I am holding my breath that it is the former. January should be interesting.
Hey, thanks for note and Best Wishes this Holiday Season and Happy New Year 2008!
Cheers, Bow
Ada, Board resignations, stock at $0.13, do you think ROO is going to make it?
I am sick to myself for getting stuck with a huge paper lose at this point. Hanging on for dear life.
Happy Holidays.
Hi JT. No position in ARUN yet. Yes, could be we have seen a bottom, but alas I have no cash right now!
Next week is do or die for IDMI. If EU approval on 12/13, I think we see $3 to $4+ a share, and could signal a reversal at the FDA in Q1 or Q2 2008. If so, we could go back to $10. If not, we are staying at around $1.00.
RGRP.ob blew-up. Another disaster for me. Licking my wounds and hanging in there.
Praying that IDMI bales me out.
Happy Holidays and Good investing,
Cheers, bow
I think we are in for another secondary offering. It won't be at $2.50 this time. Hard to believe Petty blew through $25M from May in less than six months.
I am too shaken to average down any more. Feel like a bag holder.
Ada, what are thy thoughts?
I can't believe we are at $0.38! I think Petty is a madman, driving ROO into the ground.
Any ideas as to what might happen? I am long 32.5K at $1.20 a share. New price target is $0.88.
I really thought this company was going places, but now it looks like it has less three months to live without new cash. What was Petty thinking??? if anything at all!
ROO "buy," target price reduced
Wednesday, November 21, 2007 10:31:40 AM ET
Cantor Fitzgerald
NEW YORK, November 21 (newratings.com) - Analyst Boris Markovich of Cantor Fitzgerald maintains his "buy" rating on ROO Group Inc (ticker: RGRP). The target price has been reduced to $1.25.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has reported lower-than-expected 3Q07 top-line results. ROO is likely to be able to exploit its resources and platform best if it concentrates on being a B2B service provider, the analyst says. The downward revision in the target price reflects the company’s uncertain growth prospects, Cantor Fitzgerald adds.
ROO will cease to function by February, 2008- enless ...
From 10QSB for ROO Group Inc., 11/19/07. Quarterly Report.
"As of September 30, 2007 we had working capital of approximately $14,382,000 and a cash and cash equivalents balance of $16,278,000."
"... we reported a net loss before income taxes of $22,095,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 ... ."
$22M divided by 3 (months)= $7.3M (cash burn rate at current levels).
Cash of $16.278M divided by $7.3M= 2.2 months of cash left at the current burn rate.
February 2008 is the month ROO will cease to function without additional cash. Current stock price $0.40. Market cap $15.5M.
How can a CEO in his right mind run a company like this? Petty's song and dance looks like it is coming to a disastrous end. I'll bet he will still walk away with millions.
Ada, I just posted this on Yahoo mb.
Petty is running ROO into the ground. I bought his dog and pony show. Institutions are bailing, stock price crashing to new lows, cash burn increasing and Petty keeps playing the same song. BS.
I am just going to wait and try to get out without to much damage.
What a shame.
There is an interesting article on Palo Alto Investors, IDMI's largest share holder, in the 11/19/07 edition of Barron's on page 47, Fund of Information, entitled "What the Doctor Ordered."
Palo Alto (in Palo Alto CA, next to Stanford University), is an 18-year-old hedge fund with about $1.5B under management, focused mostly on small-cap growth. The article focuses on Joon Yun, a partner and M.D.
"The firm's philosophy is to find unloved, under-covered companies with hidden value through intensive research."
"While short interest in biotech and health-care stocks is currently high, Yun is bullish on the sector. 'There certainly seems to be a lot of value in health care right now,' he says."
IDM Pharma "hold," estimates raised
Friday, November 16, 2007 8:56:26 AM ET
Cantor Fitzgerald
NEW YORK, November 16 (newratings.com) - Analyst Pamela Bassett of Cantor Fitzgerald maintains her "hold" rating on IDM Pharma Inc (ticker: IDMI), while raising his estimates for the company. The target price is set to $2.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has recently provided Phase III mifamurtide survival data. In view of the uncertainty surrounding the FDA’s next decision, the risk of non-approval remains high, the analyst says. IDM Pharma’s other pipeline drugs have been eliciting promising results and are likely to need fresh investment, Cantor Fitzgerald adds. The EPS estimates for FY07 and FY08 have been raised from -$1.33 to -0.88 and from -$1.45 to -$1.23, respectively.
UBS AG +429K +>1000%, 431K total shares held. Based in Zurich, $297B under management. Only 1.4% of portfolio in healthcare. Value $552,000.
Maybe I am dreaming, but this is telling me we are going to get a positive opinion in December.
Most (but not all) of the institutional holdings for Q3-2007 has been updated on www.nasdaq.com for IDMI.
25 million shares out standing.
5.5M shares held by institutions. 21.9% of out standing shares.
1.7M new positions in Q3.
1.9M increased positions.
420K decreased positions.
184K sold out.
Palo Alto 2.176M shares, no change in Q3, IDMI largest share holder;
Dimensional Fund added 134K, for 242K total, +124%;
Ramius Capital 165K, new in Q3;
Millennium 64K, new;
Northern Trust 22K, new;
JP Morgan 21K, new;
Bear Stearns 10K, +2.5K;
Dafna Capital -215K, still holding 341K shares;
Credit suisse -51K sold out;
Credit Agricole SA -133K sold out.
Highbridge (833K new in Q2), Stark Offshore (569K new in Q2) and Triathlon Fund, (556K), IDMI's second, third and fourth largest share holders, have not yet reported Q3 positions.
Hi JT. CPA needs some patience. Oil is too high right now. This might change?
I think next year, 2008, could be good for CPA, +$40. S and P still has a $54 target, but a hold rating on CPA. I think oil will have break big time for CPA to really move to the up side. So that is the call there.
Right now I am a little gun shy. CALD has burned me for $9k, but it should come back!?!, +180% growht next year, but EPS estimates come down to $0.15, from $0.19, fwd PE around 40, so priced to perfection.
Re ARUN. The growth estimates keep going down. Heck, a few months ago the 5 year growth estimate was about +400%, now it is around 16%! Have you jumped on-board?
Pretty wild week. Perhaps next week we will see some green. Anyway, have a good weekend.
As always, good investing,
Cheers, bow
HI JT. Check out CPA, Copa Holdings SA, at $35.38. Latin American airline.
52 week range $35.08 - 73.33.
P/E 9.80.
P/S 1.63.
EPS (ttm) $3.63. EPS est. $3.71.
PEG 0.61.
About 42M shares outstanding.
Getting killed by high oil prices, as are the rest of the airlines. Have read in Barron's that some think oil may be peaking. Any reversal by oil to the downside could spell an increase in profits for the airlines.
IMHO, anything under $35 for CPA is a money maker.
good investing, cheers,
Bow
From the "positive" connections IDMI has in the the medical establishment(s) and the apparent approval of doctors "in the know" of IDMI's products in the presentations this week, I pray that cancer patients will get the chance to prolong their lives with IDMI's products.
If the EU does approve in early December, then perhaps the FDA will do a 180 and approve Mifamurtide in early 2008. If EU approves, a $6 to $7 run, IMHO. Comments?
AXT third quarter 2007 results. Rev: $14.5M; EPS: $0.03. Estimate was $0.05, -0.02.
Short-term, interesting bump in the road.
Long-term, the 64 thousand dollar question is can AXTI execute it's business plan?
From what I know about this company all of the pieces are in place for good, sustainable growth, but it did not happen in Q3-2007 and Q4-2007 EPS estimates are down to between $0.03 and $0.05, when previous estimate was $0.06. Wish I knew what the answer was here.
Stock price got hammered this week and closed today (10/30/07) at $4.64.
CALD @ $8.21, should hit it's $14 one year target.
A growth stock's P/E should be anywhere from 1 to 1.2 times its growth rate. (GOOG's is about 1.2 for example).
CALD 2008 growth rate = 226% (source Yahoo.com)
226 x 1.2= 271
271 x $0.19= $51.49.
OK, Yahoo estimates, just missed earnings badly, (-$0.12, when estimate was -$.07), so lets just take -50% off this, = $25.75.
So, even cutting the estimates in half, CALD's 2008 fair price = $25.
Thus, the $14 one year analyst target is within reach, + $5.88, from todays close of $8.21, IMHO.
One other thing, a major shareholder of CALD was distributing it's shares in Q3-2007, but still holds 1.3M shares. My point is the stock has held up well under this distribution. Here's the story:
At the end of Q2-2007 (6/30/07), Crosspoint held 6.8M shares of CALD, source: nasdaq.com.
As of 10/2/07, Crosspoint held 1.13M shares, source: nasdaq.com.
On 10/2/07, Crosspoint had sold 2.68M shares, on 8/29/07 they had sold 2.68M shares, for a total of 5.36M shares sold in Q3-2007.
You can see the effect of these distributions on the stock price on the chart.
CALD has 29M shares outstanding. IMHO, CALD's share price has done very well through a major distribution of a major shareholder.
Which of course begs the question, why is Crosspoint selling, although as of 10/2/07, still holding 1.31M shares of CALD?
http://biohealthinvestor.com/2007/10/fri... IDMI +15% today! More to come!?!
IDMI, 2nd bio tech gainer today: http://biohealthinvestor.com/2007/10/fri...
CALD @ $7.90, -$1.45, -15% on Friday. 29M shares outstanding.
Earnings came in on Thursday @ -$0.12, estimate was -$0.05.
Software company, provider of sales perfomance management (SPM) and enterpirse incentive management (EM) software.
Earnings projections estimate CALD will become profitable for the first time in Q4-2007, this quarter, @ est. +$0.04.
EPS:
2007= -$0.15,
2008= +$0.19.
2008 growth estimate: +226%.
Analyst one year target: $14.00.
good investings,
Cheers, bow
IDMI @ $1.26. November 1, 2007, Clinical Data Presentations. This is one beat up bio tech. Could be the start positive PR for the company.
Press Release Source: IDM Pharma, Inc.
IDM Pharma Announces Upcoming Clinical Data Presentations
Friday October 26, 7:30 am ET
IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- IDM Pharma, Inc. (Nasdaq: IDMI - News), a biotechnology company focused on the development of innovative cancer therapies, today announced details on clinical data presentations evaluating three of the Company's pipeline compounds to be presented at upcoming medical congresses.
Specific presentation details are as follows:
Mifamurtide (L-MTP-PE):
Connective Tissue Oncology Society (CTOS) -- Seattle, Wash.
Oral presentation -- Thursday, November 1, 1:30 p.m. PDT
"Osteosarcoma: Improved Outcome of Muramyl Tripeptide (MTP) to Cisplatin, Doxorubicin, High Dose Methotrexate +/- Ifosfamide."
Dr. Paul Meyers, principal investigator, vice chairman, department of pediatrics at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Abstract #780
The 39th Congress of International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP) -- Mumbai, India
Poster presentation -- Friday, November 2, 4:30 -- 6 a.m. EDT
"Lung and Bone Specific Site-Directed Therapy of Osteosarcoma"
Dr. Johannes Wolff, professor of pediatrics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston
Dr. Maurizio Ghisoli, fellow, pediatric oncology and hematology, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston
Poster #PD.037
IDM-2101:
International Society for Biological Therapy of Cancer (iSBTc) -- Boston, Mass.
Oral presentation (Vaccines/Dendritic Cells) -- Sunday, November 4, 8:45 - - 11 a.m. EST
"Phase 2 Trial of a 10-epitope CTL Vaccine, IDM-2101, in Metastatic NSCLC Patients: Induction of Immune Responses and Clinical Efficacy"
Dr. Minal Barve, practice director, Mary Crowley Medical Research Center
UVIDEM®:
International Society for Biological Therapy of Cancer (iSBTc) -- Boston, Mass.
Poster presentation -- Friday, November 2, 10 a.m. -- 6 p.m. EDT
Saturday, November 3, 7 a.m. -- 6:30 p.m. EDT
"Clinical Efficacy and Immunogenicity of IDD-3/UVIDEM, a Dendritic Cell-based Vaccine, in Patients with Malignant Melanoma."
About IDM Pharma
IDM Pharma is focused on the development of innovative cancer products that either destroy cancer cells by activating the immune system or prevent tumor recurrence by triggering a specific adaptive immune response. IDM Pharma is dedicated to maximizing the full therapeutic and commercial potential of each of its innovative products to address the needs of patients and the physicians who treat these patients.
For more information about the company and its products, visit http://www.idm-pharma.com.
IDMI @ $1.26. November 1, 2007, Clinical Data Presentations. This is one beat up bio tech. Could be the start positive PR for the company.
Press Release Source: IDM Pharma, Inc.
IDM Pharma Announces Upcoming Clinical Data Presentations
Friday October 26, 7:30 am ET
IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- IDM Pharma, Inc. (Nasdaq: IDMI - News), a biotechnology company focused on the development of innovative cancer therapies, today announced details on clinical data presentations evaluating three of the Company's pipeline compounds to be presented at upcoming medical congresses.
Specific presentation details are as follows:
Mifamurtide (L-MTP-PE):
Connective Tissue Oncology Society (CTOS) -- Seattle, Wash.
Oral presentation -- Thursday, November 1, 1:30 p.m. PDT
"Osteosarcoma: Improved Outcome of Muramyl Tripeptide (MTP) to Cisplatin, Doxorubicin, High Dose Methotrexate +/- Ifosfamide."
Dr. Paul Meyers, principal investigator, vice chairman, department of pediatrics at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Abstract #780
The 39th Congress of International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP) -- Mumbai, India
Poster presentation -- Friday, November 2, 4:30 -- 6 a.m. EDT
"Lung and Bone Specific Site-Directed Therapy of Osteosarcoma"
Dr. Johannes Wolff, professor of pediatrics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston
Dr. Maurizio Ghisoli, fellow, pediatric oncology and hematology, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston
Poster #PD.037
IDM-2101:
International Society for Biological Therapy of Cancer (iSBTc) -- Boston, Mass.
Oral presentation (Vaccines/Dendritic Cells) -- Sunday, November 4, 8:45 - - 11 a.m. EST
"Phase 2 Trial of a 10-epitope CTL Vaccine, IDM-2101, in Metastatic NSCLC Patients: Induction of Immune Responses and Clinical Efficacy"
Dr. Minal Barve, practice director, Mary Crowley Medical Research Center
UVIDEM®:
International Society for Biological Therapy of Cancer (iSBTc) -- Boston, Mass.
Poster presentation -- Friday, November 2, 10 a.m. -- 6 p.m. EDT
Saturday, November 3, 7 a.m. -- 6:30 p.m. EDT
"Clinical Efficacy and Immunogenicity of IDD-3/UVIDEM, a Dendritic Cell-based Vaccine, in Patients with Malignant Melanoma."
About IDM Pharma
IDM Pharma is focused on the development of innovative cancer products that either destroy cancer cells by activating the immune system or prevent tumor recurrence by triggering a specific adaptive immune response. IDM Pharma is dedicated to maximizing the full therapeutic and commercial potential of each of its innovative products to address the needs of patients and the physicians who treat these patients.
For more information about the company and its products, visit http://www.idm-pharma.com.
Hi JT. check out CALD @ $7.90, -$1.45, -15% on Friday. 29M shares outstanding.
Earnings came in on Thursday @ -$0.12, estimate was -$0.05.
Software company, provider of sales perfomance management (SPM) and enterpirse incentive management (EM) software.
Earnings projections estimate CALD will become profitable for the first time in Q4-2007, this quarter, @ est. +$0.04. Hopefully, they are right.
EPS:
2007= -$0.15,
2008= +$0.19.
2008 growth estimate: +226%.
Analyst one year target: $14.00.
Had RVBD in IRA account, in and out in two days, +$1,100. I am out now, waiting to see if RVBD tests the $28.00 area, closed Friday @ $33.11.
As always,
good investings,
Cheers, bow