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Basic materials
Started a new machine in basic Materials today.
Kind Regards,K
EMM
Today sold 14.7% of my EMM shares as directed by AIM-BTB.
Have the feeling that the Far East did contribute a lot to it )
Kind Regards, K
iShares MSCI Far east excl Japan
I wanted to start a machine in this vehicle, but am thinking of delaying that till a better point in time(also happy to be in EMM although that covers the whole planet):
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10466917&pnum=0
US pinch hurting exporters on payday
5:00AM Monday October 01, 2007
By Simon Hendery
New Zealand exporters face payment delays as fallout from the US sub-prime mortgage market crisis hits our trading partners, according to research from Dun & Bradstreet.
The credit services company says businesses across Asia-Pacific - a vital export region for New Zealand - face a credit squeeze as demand for products decreases with the US tightening its belt on spending.
That slow-down's ripple effect is beginning to hit New Zealand exporters who are finding payments from their overseas customers are increasingly arriving later than due.
Dun & Bradstreet data shows several countries in the region have businesses that are paying a significant percentage of their accounts late.
India has the worst record, with 55.9 per cent of payments made past the agreed deadline under standard terms of trade.
"The recent sub-prime fallout has heightened economic tension in the Asia-Pacific region and created a more unstable trading environment for New Zealand exporters," said Dun & Bradstreet New Zealand general manager John Scott.
"Even though the Asia-Pacific region's direct exposure to the US sub-prime loans was minimal, the subsequent jump in global risk aversion and the associated re-pricing of risk has the potential to impact Asian economies in a multitude of ways."
The situation was compounded for New Zealand exporters by the fact that three-quarters of them were involved in either manufacturing or wholesaling, two business sectors likely to be hardest hit by a regional slowdown.
New Zealand exporters also tended to be smaller businesses - 80 per cent sell less than $10 million worth of goods or services a year - and this made them more susceptible to cash-flow problems if payments were late.
"We see risk as greatest for the small-to-medium-sized exporters who don't have a dominant market position and are reliant on a small number of overseas customers," Scott said. John Walley, the chief executive of the Manufacturers and Exporters Association, described Dun & Bradstreet's findings as "another nail in the tradeable sector in New Zealand".
But he said a positive for exporters over the past few months was that the Australian exchange rate had moved down from its recent highs and was now closer to long-term average levels.
The trading situation in Australia is particularly important because it is New Zealand's largest export market, and is often the first destination for new exporters. The New Zealand dollar is now worth about A85c.
"We're still not into the perfect storm," said Walley.
"If Australia goes back to 92c [against the New Zealand dollar] and we have this [slow payment] problem then we're going to have a real perfect storm against export tradeables.
"We're not quite there. Thank goodness the Australian dollar has come back a bit."
He said to ensure they got paid as their customers began to feel the pinch, exporters needed to keep chasing their debtors and not let their terms of trade slip.
Scott said local exporters were becoming more cautious in their dealing with overseas creditors.
"The prudent companies are just checking and rechecking who they've extended credit to and how they are being repaid, and then being much more watchful of that process."
ADDING UP THE TARDY PAYERS
Percentage of payments made 30 days or more over terms:
* India 55.9 per cent
* Australia 41.2 per cent
* Philippines 39.1 per cent
* Malaysia 38.6 per cent
* Indonesia 37.4 per cent
Interesting reads
http://trentland.com/strats/djia0907.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/09/cndebt109.xml
I have my powder dry :)
Kind Regards, K
Evaluation Time
Hi Grabber,
Congratulations with the nice transactions!
Surely I monitor AIM much more frequently than only at end-of-month. I update weekly and at most times I know where all machines are, in purchase territory, in hold, or in sell territory.
In my view when the longer term average is flat, it makes sense to trade whenever a machine gives a market order. You use the noise in the price signal, and more noise is more and better transactions,
When the longer term average is up or down, it makes sense to delay a bit. Lichello used as an example that he evaluated at friday and that the order was executed on monday or tuesday, and he says that is not a problem, because he got more of the trend.
So what is a delay: Lichello says monthly or quarterly. The reason that you want to trade during the month to catch opportunities also applies here. One would like to trade during the quarter or maybe outside the quarter.
What criteria to use to 'time' that trade? During the month you try to use the noise(volatility) in the price. If you delay you can still use the noise, an example is XDEV. You can also look for events, Macd/MacroAim etc, and base your decision on that.
I notice that i still sell too fast. When the trend is up I tend to catch all sells. In 2002 it made sense to first regenerate a certain cash level. But later, i noticed that at many occasions monthly sells, would be very good.
I must admit that i have still not really tried LD-AIM, mainly because of the buying. The development of a stop loss will greatly improve LD-AIM, in my opinion. Also I like to see how LD-AIM will behave in a real downturn.
Another thing: I am moving more and more to ETF's, they are much slower. I don't use the stocks you use. At the moment I am thinking of making one AIM machine of only world class shares and manage it according to LIchello guidelines. All other machines will be ETF's.
Maybe it is a nice topic for discussion what world shares we would like to see in such a machine.
All these things have been said before, but this is where I am at this moment.
Kind Regards, K
Monthly evaluation
Interesting, when looking at the overall numbers for 1Sept, 1Aug and 1 July, adding all machines together, I don't see the volatility that we experienced!
It seems that monthly evaluation creates a state of rest.
Kind Regards, K
Today market: -3.75% over here !
I went on holiday in July and came back in August. Surprise, the market was down 10%!
But actually not a surprise. In many machines we had a MacroAim sellpoint already in June. In July I terminated 2 machines(total MacroAim sell) because of their parabolic rise and penetration of the MA200. (extreme MacroAim). And then vacation...
Last weekend I evaluated all machines and no buys were indicated. Some of the machines were close to their sell points still.
Maybe now the buying is possible but i am not in a hurry to look at it. The thing I learnt from last time(2000) was to go slowly. Try to postpone till MacroAim buypoints. There will be false buypoints, but the frequency of buying will be > than monthly. As a precaution I have my cash on a 3 Month deposit)
So I am a little bit surprised to already see buying activity. That means a drop of 30% at least in a stock !? In fast dropping stocks I would follow Lichello's advice and buy a second stock or ETF. That is my plan with some machines. I will split the machines subsequently with honest allocation of the PC over both machines.
Also i will look at using AIM-HI now, with both buy parameters on 10%, at least at this moment. That cash cushion will be used very slowly )
Kind Regards,K
Triggers
History of my isharesEPRA investment:
I rotated into EPRA in august 2006. At that time this was the only real estate iShare available to me.
Then there was 1 AIM sell for 15% of the shares in January 2007. Subsequently it was sold completely on 27 Feb 2007, 3 months before the Macro Aim Event (crossover 6MExpAvg). Looking back the whole position was sold at the top.
Triggers:
- iShares Global Property became available, and i wanted to move my EPRA investment to Global. This was the most important trigger.
- it was a 30% consolidation in 7-8 months
- valuations seemed high, with high volatility in property shares
- it felt like a top, everybody jumping on the real estate bandwagon, there was exuberance
- drive to create cash. The cash stays allocated in my dividend payers bucket, but is free to be used for Aiming in other machines.
I will buy ishares Global Property, but buys will be exlusively executed only when AIM signals so. So my EPRA machine is now virtual. The AIM parameters on the buy side are 10,6 while I also look at steepness of the 6MExpAvg. So buying frequency will be very low and probably only at event points :)
Hope this explains it a bit.
Kind Regards,K
iShares FTSE EPRA
This is an iShares ETF for european real estate.
These numbers are my numbers in an excel spreadsheet:
EPRA price : 33.84
6MonthsExpAvg : 36.10
13WeekExpAvg : 36.29
5WeekExpAvg : 35.20
At the beginning of June 2007 an AIM Macro sell was indicated at approximately 36.50
The drop in price seems ominous :)
It could have something to do with interest yield expectations.
I exited iShares EPRA completely, and was lucky doing that, because i want to rotate to iShares Property Global via AIM buys.
Kind Regards, K
NZ dollar
The India-daily is talking about a low of the NZ dollar vs the US dollar. I was under the impression the NZ$ is at an all time high vs the US$ since it was floated in the 1980's.
Bank governor Bollard of the reserve bank is expected to raise the official cash rate to 8.0% in his fight with inflation.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10443976
With the decision today of Bank Governor Trichet the ECB raised the euro cash rate to 4.0%.
I am so happy my cash is at 45% now.
Kind Regards, K
This is also called Macro-Aim.
I always use this mechanism for an exit (partial or full). If i dont know how to exit , i tend to decide on the partial exit and take the original investment out. In that way the machine that is still there, is a Free-Machine. (cost base = zero, risk = zero)
At the buy side this is a sort of last buy moment. You did not buy on the way down(or did not execute all buy moments), then aggregate all buys together and execute at this point.
In 2003, there were a few machines, where i was afraid of buying. Then the thought came up, this is a Macro buy moment, you HAVE to buy. I am happy i did.
A few years ago Don did research on MacroAim. The results were excellent.
Kind Regards,K
"Chance of a Lifetime" March, 2003
If this was a nice opportunity ..... :)
I remember i was borrowing money to buy and the amount borrowed was 20% of total value of the AIM machines.
It shows again that I have to be conservative with buying.
Also with selling, I notice that when i try to be smart, the AIM algorithm often is smarter. Most of the time it is the internal clock which is not in sync with monthly evaluations.
Kind Regards, K
Hello Adam,
1- What is EZM, is it the same as Husky?
2- When buying, one can also use the Macro Buy system: wait till the price is above the MA200 again. Or at least look at the trend graph and execute when the trend seems to change.
there is another thing here, if you dont buy and miss a few regular AIM buy points, assume you get a reversal. Then you can buy when the stock goes up at those same buy points.(AIM-reverse)
You have the choice between a big buy or several smaller buys going up.
3- Lichello always talks about portfolios of a few stocks. So when tanking it can be an opportunity to buy something of 'greater intrinsic value'. Currently when one of my stocks drops, i buy ETFs. Then i migrate these ETFs to other machines, correcting for PC and portfolio value.
Kind Regards,K
week.....
at the start of this week i executed a few sell orders. these machine already could sell for a few months, but i decided to let the profits run.(macro-AIM type of strategy)
at the end of last week i listened to the news and heard about the israeli corridor over iraq, and that made me decide to execute all sell orders that were available. that was on monday.
then on tuesday the circus started with the computer glitch of 200 points and the renewed asia crisis etc.
also ended a machine that i started in august last year(property-europe)
that was my reason....
to make sure that i will only buy monthly, i put the cash into a monthly time dep.
Kind Regards,K
ETC
http://www.etfsecurities.com/nl/document/etfs_document.asp
They started trading here and they seem volatile.
I was thinking of investing in the All Commodities ETC.
That is energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agriculture and lifestock.
Merry Christmas, K
Fish cells swim circles
How interesting and potentially applicable to AIM !!!
http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/10/11/22/1
Fish cells swim circles around physics lab
30 November 2006
What do stampeding elephants and flocks of birds have in common with living cells from a goldfish? They can all be described by a new model of "flocking" devised by biophysicists in Hungary. The model is based on observations of live cells that begin to move in unison as their numbers reach a critical level and is the first to explain how such simple organisms can do this without being "aware" of their neighbour’s collective motion. (Phys. Rev. E to be published).
Figure 1
Figure 1
Just as some birds fly in unison in large flocks, some bacteria and other live single cells can organize themselves into moving structures. But exactly how this happens has been a mystery because unlike birds, single cells have no conceivable way of observing and responding to the average velocity of their neighbours.
Now Bálint Szabó and colleagues at Eötvös University in Budapest have developed a new theory of flocking that is unique because it is not based on individuals being aware of their neighbour’s average velocity. The researchers say that this very simple model of flocking could also be applied to a wide variety of animals – even complex organisms such as birds or even elephants.
The researchers studied the collective motion of keratocytes, which are live single cells produced by goldfish scales. Fish keratocytes are often used in studies of cell migration because they move rapidly and their movement is not affected by the presence of chemicals in their environment.
The cells were confined within a small incubator and their behaviour was recorded visually using a videomicroscope (see figure “Fish cells on the move”). When only a few cells were present, the keratocytes moved independently in random directions. However, as the population multiplied, the keratocytes started to move collectively when the cell density reached about 0.0005 cells per square micrometre. Above this critical density the keratocytes moved in coherent groups. When the cell density was increased even further, the effect of collisions with the walls of the square-shaped incubator caused the cells to move in a whirl-like structure (see figure “Whirling keratocytes”).
Figure 2
Figure 2
The researchers were able to explain this phase transition by creating a simple model of the interaction between two keratocytes that is based on three forces acting at three different distances. At very short separations a repulsive force causes the keratocytes to move apart. At intermediate cell separations (up to about one cell diameter) an attractive force causes the keratocytes to move together. At distances greater than about one cell diameter the force was set to zero. When used to simulate the behaviour of moving cells, this combination of simple forces caused the onset of collective motion at a critical density. This is unlike previous models, which assumed that the cells could respond to the motion of their neighbours.
The team hopes their experiment and model will create a better understanding of a range of biological phenomena, including how groups cells of arrange themselves to become embryos and how wounds heal by the coherent movement of endothelial cells.
Hi All,
1 - The I wave has 5 buckets from X-oversold to X-overbought.
2 - Imagine : monthly rebalance of 1 Bond Fund and 10 Sectors Funds of the MSCI world.
3 - The allocation parameters regarding the sector funds could be optimized, but let not worry about this now.
4 - Benjamin Graham proposed for the defensive investor a 50%/50% bond/share allocation. I tested this in a simple spreadsheet and this allocation ratio seems superior to other ratios in some simple scenarios.
5 - Use for the bond percentages: 10%, 30%, 50%, 70% and 90%.
6 - Use the corresponding I wave buckets:
X-overbought: 90% bonds
overbought: 70% bonds
average market: 50 % bonds
oversold: 30% bonds
x-oversold: 10% bonds
7 - So there are 2 tuning knobs: the monthly rebalance and the bond/share allocation ratio based on the I-wave.
The monthly rebalance system I have in place, basically one mouse click every month. The bond/share ratio variation system will take 5 minutes every time the I-wave changes its color.
My question : is this system any good?
Kind Regards, K
Hi Tom,
Interesting list. I noticed that I have Aegon(AEG).
It is a stock that gives a nice dividend.
I have it in a portfolio with some year2000 tech stuff.
My idea is that Aegon will save and recuperate the losses on the tech stuff:)
Kind Regards,K
Hello Toofuzzy,
Dividends and what they can pay for ....
I restructured my set of AIM machines similar to the Selengut approach with 3 buckets:
1-transaction bucket
2-dividend/value ETFs, REIT
3-stocks, other ETFs
In bucket 1 all dividends and interest are added and tax, transaction costs and other costs are substracted. If bucket1 is in overflow mode, the money goes to bucket 2 or 3 dependent on the allocation settings.
So in AIM machines no interest/dividend/tax/costs are recorded, that is all done in bucket 1.
This approach feels 'nice' to me. For a long time I was not satisfied with the way costs, interest, dividends etc. are handled within my AIM machines. In this way my life got more 'structured' and 'simple'.
Kind Regards,
K
Hello Jack,
This is not about LIFO/FIFO but more about your actual results.
The numbers are much better than AIM BtB and B&H.
What method did you use?
Kind Regards, K
Hi Conrad,
Here is a 'chart-prediction' model from the world of Physics for house prices and their historical price wave structure:
http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/10/5/17/1#060517
Property market set to slump
31 May 2006
It's a question that plays on the minds of millions of people around the world: when is the current rise in house prices finally going to cease? According to new calculations by a theoretical physicist in France, the answer is "soon". Based on an a analysis of historical house prices on the West Coast of the US, Bertrand Roehner of the University of Paris VII has concluded that prices have reached record levels and could soon be heading for a slump. And although the data come from just one region, property prices in many other developed countries may follow the same pattern (physics/0605133).
House prices in the big cities of most developed nations, notably with the exception of Japan, have been rising steadily over the last few years. Although the current price increases have the same magnitude as previous rises (typically an increase of between 80 and 100%), the present price peak seems to be lasting for longer than usual. To understand why and to make predictions for the future, Roehner fitted models to quarterly average house prices on the West Coast of the US over the last 40 years.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Roehner identified four rapid surges in house prices during this period, each of which lasted about ten years (figure 1). He then calculated two numbers for each period: the amplitude of a peak (defined by the ratio of highest price to initial price) and the magnitude of the fall in prices (defined by the ratio of the lowest price to the peak price). The results show that the current peak is still in its up-going phase and will have an amplitude larger than 1.7, which is higher than any previous amplitude. This figure is generally less than 3 because house prices are limited by how much people earn.
The model can also predict how house prices might evolve between now and 2011, and shows that the high prices will slowly start to come down at the same rate as they went up (figure 2). This decrease, which will take about six or seven years, is characterized by exponential price falls with rates of about -6% per year, and will start in major cities such as San Francisco and Los Angeles with smaller cities following suit. These predictions might also hold true for other big cities, like London, Madrid, Paris or New York. Indeed, in Melbourne and Sydney the descent has already started.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Roehner says the current period is somewhat different to previous years because there is an inflated demand for property -- mainly from investors and high-income buyers -- that was not so important before. Moreover, investment funds (including pension and hedge funds) and the stock market are more closely associated with real estate than in previous years. Speculation has also boosted house prices to sometimes unreasonable levels.
However, Roehner also stresses the limits of his and other such models: "Consider the London housing market," he says. "A year ago everybody (including myself) was convinced that the turning point had been reached and that prices would decline. In fact, over the last 12 months real estate prices in London have increased by 8%. What happened? As explained in a recent article published in the Economist, Gordon Brown [UK Chancellor of the Exchequer] has offered a governmental guarantee to banks and other lending institutions and devoted about $2 billion in subsidies to encourage buyers. Naturally, no model can take such events into account in advance."
About the author
Hello Conrad.
Good to hear from you!
What i think that happened(at least from a Euro perspective) is that we had THE Macro SELL in the market-indices.
So Macro-Aimers can do their sell.
In my own machines i kept an aggressive selling schedule and there are no Buy signals anywhere.
During the crash of 2000, i noticed the similarity between the 1930 graphs and now. At that time i remember that I wrote about this on this forum and could guestimate the length of the rest of the decline. The guestimate was roughly correct. Lately i have been comparing these graphs again and saw the similarities over a period of 6 years.
A possible scenario is a replay of events then. What the chance of this scenario is I dont know. These are 'complex systems' and nobody has the equations or whatever. You can describe factors in the socioeconomical climate which are the same or different. Nobody knows if these factors are important anyway.
Remember the advertisements on the radio lately for people to buy funds. It was really top-behavior.
So was it a good bet to sell at the Macro sell point? For aimers the answer is easy. They sell (or sold) to the appropriate level. You can also sell the lot. That is what i did with for example my TNT-machine. I considered the market and the stock extreme and took the Macro sell option for this stock.
Today:
Corus -11%
TomTom -7%
It could be a blip.
So I make no statements, only try to feel the 'climate' and am certainly not right.
But it is a lot nicer to make a bold statement :)
Kind Regards, K
Hi All,
I find it interesting to look at a graph of the stock market in the 30's. We had the downwave of 1929-1933 and then the upwave till 1936/1937.
Also the ratios of high/low are comparable to now.
Looking forward based on this history we can expect a drop of the market of 50% and it will take half a year to get to the bottom. The bottom will be reached in 2007.
I use this scenario to guide my actions :)
I took all sales over the last few months in fact I lowered the min sell amount percentage to 1%.
Buying will not start in my machines. In fact I think we just had the MACRO sell signal last week on the whole market.
OK, for what it is worth.
Kind Rgards,K
Interesting
DUBAI - Fund managers in the United Arab Emirates will press the government to freeze all initial public offerings for three months and help set up a fund to stabilise tumbling stock markets, an industry source said today.
The fund managers and brokers held an urgent meeting in the UAE's commercial hub of Dubai to discuss how to revive the country's two stock markets, which have slumped in tandem with bourses around the world's biggest oil exporting region.
The decline in the UAE markets in Dubai and the capital Abu Dhabi have partly been driven by the staggering demand for IPOs that has drained cash from the secondary market.
Two simultaneous IPOs in March drew bids equal to 150 per cent of the UAE's gross domestic product and were heavily oversubscribed. Much of the money was borrowed to take advantage of easy credit and laws requiring conservative IPO valuations.
"With what is happening with leveraging for the IPOs all the liquidity is being sucked from the market," said the source familiar with the outcome of Wednesday's keenly awaited meeting.
"They should be put on hold for three months and after that they should be regulated," the source said.
The meeting called by the UAE's biggest fund manager, the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, agreed that a committee of fund managers and brokers would finalise their recommendations and then press for a government response.
They also decided to urge the government to fast-track a new share buyback law and to encourage state funds, which control the bulk of the country's oil wealth, to become long-term investors in stocks.
Brokers have reported buying by government-linked funds to support markets as they sank this year, but this has had little effect. Dubai's index has fallen 46 per cent this year and Abu Dhabi's has dropped 29 per cent.
The source said a proposed market-maker fund set up with public and private money would take over the role of calming volatile markets.
"The fund will buy when valuations are attractive and sell when prices get to high. If it only intervenes on the downturn, the prices would be inflated," the source said.
That is exactly what happened to Gulf stock markets last year. Virtually assured of government support, tens of thousands of the retail investors around the region borrowed heavily to ride an equity boom that had made Gulf bourses among the world's most expensive markets in the world.
When the downturn began these investors were forced to sell to meet their commitments to banks and were soon scrambling for the door, their dreams of quick wealth shattered.
No buying has kicked in even though UAE markets are trading at about 13-14 times 2006 earnings, compared to valuations of close to 40 at the beginning of the year.
"Companies should be able to buy their shares when they see an investment opportunity, if they think their shares have fallen below fair value," said the source explaining the rationale for the share buyback law.
The current law only allows companies to buy back shares if they fall below book value, the source said. A new law is in the works.
The source said the US$233.3 million ($367.74 million) IPO of Arkan Building Materials would go ahead as scheduled on May 6.
- REUTERS
Interesting !
Saudi shares hit by record fall
17.04.06
RIYADH - Saudi shares suffered their sharpest ever one-day plunge on Saturday as a wave of selling unleashed by a crackdown on market manipulation drove the index to six-month lows.
The main stock index of the Arab world's largest bourse ended at 14,376.01 points, its lowest close since October.
The decline of 8.4 per cent was the steepest in a single day since 1998, according to Reuters data.
"There is fear in the market. People are scared to see the market going down," said Abdelmounaim Addas of Zad Investment.
The index fell 18 per cent in the four trading days since April 9, when two dealers were suspended.
"In the cases of several blue chips, we are getting close to levels that may prompt a rush in margin calls," said Yassine al-Jafri, a Jeddah-based university economist.
Brokers said wealthy speculators triggered the sell-off fearing their grip on the bourse was threatened.
Addas said some of those funds had pushed the market down during Saturday's morning session, but by evening the decline was driven by panic-stricken retail investors.
"This is the only market in the world, of this size, that does not have research, so there is no benchmark as to where to stop buying or selling," said Hani Baothmane, managing partner in al-Khabeer Financial Consultancy.
The volume of speculative capital in Saudi Arabia is huge, swollen by record oil revenues. Managers of massive private portfolios, often acting in concert, have enormous clout in a market that has little institutional capital.
Before the latest downturn, funds had invested about 150 billion riyals ($65 billion) in a market that was then worth more than $950 billion.
Market liquidity depends on large speculators and with most staying on the sidelines during late trading, the day's turnover came in at 8.06 billion riyals, about one-fifth of the levels seen during the market's record-breaking rally early this year.
Traders said Saturday's early selling was similar to that seen last week with speculators focusing on industrial, cement and electricity companies that carried out a 5-for-1 share split over the weekend.
"Speculators want to play on market nerves and [trigger more selling in] these coveted stocks," said one senior Saudi trader of the morning session.
Petrochemical giant Saudi Basic Industries, the market's largest company, fell by almost the maximum 10 per cent allowed in a single day.
- REUTERS
Hi AIMster,
There is no capital gains tax here and also not short term or long term dependencies. There is only a flat-tax, payable once a year. So no worries about that :)
About 1% sells being short term, that is not what i see :)
I use them when i think the trend is exhausted or the trend is flat. So now, while the I-wave indicates a high risk environment, I guess it is time to sell all you can. I started doing that early 2006/late 2005. Before that it was once a month evaluation and even longer, while thinking that Macro-AIM was the vehicle of choice :)
For quite a few machines i had delayed sells. By inserting multiple 1% orders, you can sell for example 7% in 7 chunks. All these sells for my sectorfunds together were quite a few percentage points !
Also when you believe in a double top , it is a nice way to exploit the second top :)
For what it is worth, K
Hi,
I dont know if this is the top, or that the top is 25% higher.
My feeling is that we are in high territory. So i take all sells and have a 1% sell percentage(very agressive). I like to take whatever is available and take machines out when their stock value is at extreme levels.(can always restart them later)
What i find useful during the last half year:
1. decide what the amount of cash is that you need. ( i do this portfolio wide)
2. take all AIM directed sells.
3. all cash over the cash target is used for other useful purposes: lowering the mortgage, buying a new car etc.etc.
So you use the upwave to improve your situation, because you cant do that as nicely when the market is behaving badly. So your AIM machines can support your lifestyle now and you dont have to wait till the Lichello million arrives. Also you take the money at the right time without damaging your portfolio structure.
At the moment i like this, and didnt know that you could do this. Now i know !
Kind Regards,K
Hi all,
Made a decision to stop with a series of machines to use the monthly evaluation program.
Reinstalled the 1% routine and evaluate selling daily.
Using the parameter set 10,10,x,1
x is the buying minimum where i have to decide what it will be in the future.
I have the feeling that it is time for microscopic selling transactions again.
kind regards,K
It is interesting that the influx is big now:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9556-2046685,00.html
Interesting:
> TIMES ON LINE - Cheap funds provide ticket to ride the world markets
INVESTORS looking for a cheap way into world markets have been snapping up
exchange-traded funds, which follow an index like a tracker but are traded
in the same way as shares.
Savers put nearly £1 billion into ETFs last month, according to
Ishares, an ETF manager owned by Barclays Global Investors. After a slow
start, January was the best month in the firm's five-year history.
Demand has been boosted by the launch last November of 14 ETFs tracking
exotic markets such as Taiwan, Brazil, Korea and eastern Europe. It is hard
to find conventional tracker funds in these markets, so ETFs are the
cheapest way in.
Like trackers, ETFs mimic the performance of their underlying index, whether
it is Britain's FTSE 100, America's S&P 500 or the FTSE/Xinhua China 25.
However, they are in fact shares that can be bought and sold through brokers
like any other listed stock, although they do not attract stamp duty.
Hi,
Those lists i always scan for Lichello or AIM.
When i dont get any hits, somehow this makes me happy.
Kind Regards,K
List
Maybe this list is of interest to someone
http://contrarian.behaviouralfinance.net/
Kind Regards,K
China?,
My chinafund is this week 'breaking out'.
Is at its highest point in more than 4 years, higher than March 2004, and very very close to an AIM sell(5% sell perc, 10% safe).
My pacific region fund was already doing very well, but China was left behind. Hopefully this omission will be corrected from now on:)
Kind Regards,K
Hi AL,
Because I am based in euroland, the dollar/euro ratio is of some importance to me. In May 2005, I had an AIM buy in 2 machines. At that time the euro was $1.30 and the euro was plateauing versus the dollar. I decided to buy the SP/500, thinking that it seemed that the euro would go down, it would be a good buy.
Subsequently the euro went down to $1.18, roughly 10 percent. The sp500 ishares fund went up roughly 17%. That is the difference you described, I think.
In november a major move up started in europe. November was excellent, december was excellent, and january is starting excellent as well.
I only sell at the end of the month and have had sells every month lately. Also on the 2nd of january i had Aim directed sells.
Americans are fleeing the dollar, which drives the dollar down, and are buying equities(foreign) which drives those prices up.
The percentages dont have to be equal.
The story about equities is getting more and more positive and every commentator is explaining why the only choice is equities.
I cannot give you a quantative answer. We are in the middle of an accelerating bull market. Is it a climax or a fast correction upwards after the extreme Bear conditions we experienced?
CNBC now has a progam from 10am to noon, which is called international markets, which is presenting from US, asian and european perspectives. They want to create or support a new bull market and the psyche of the american investor is not yet ready for it, because of the 2000 meltdown. The money base needs to be extended to a global audience, they explain.
I hope this gives you some perspective how things look from this side of the atlantic. One thing stays the same: sell when AIM tells you to do that and the same on the buy side:).
(The bull market is very, very good for us now, and i see an exlosion of all these stocks that i bought at these extreme bear levels, Mr lichello thanks again for your algorithm and the new car i bought:)).
Hope this makes some sense,
Kind Regards, K
Hello Tom,
This is interesting.
Is this divergence between etf's and sectorfunds happening as well in other sectors. The difference is big.
Food for thought...
Kind Regards,K
Hi Tom,
I read it in a dutch finance magazine.
Its from a book called 'money and emotions'. Its a dutch book so the title is my translation.
The author gives tips how to manage emotions, he also describes
trading, sell at a small loss and determine a limit where you sell.
He also advices not looking at the computer screens too often.
Everytime you look you make a decision unconsciously.
He thinks that it is not smart. The author tries to be very rational.
There are other people who dont agree. They say that people are emotional - homo emotionomicus. etc.etc.
I liked the fragment about looking once a month, because it fits so nicely with Mr Lichello's advice.
Its one of the things i am also doing now. Even when i can sell
during the month i dont do it, but wait till my regular once a month sell point. I try not to look, and let the trend continue. So i am not afraid that the trend ends during the month:)
I did some analysis and decided that once a month was as good as daily especially after costs.
Also the trend has only one peak. So you should not sell to early. Also you should sell in a frequency that approximates the peak. So the AIm pattern of selling should be spread over the trend with:
1-peak approximation
2-trend exhaustion
By using daily sell orders, you get 1, but you dont get 2.
Once a month seems a compromise between 1 and 2.
Once a quarter is great with 2, but 1 is more difficult. It is better with fuzzy peaks.
A sharp peak should be met using 1. 2 is too slow.
So because the once a month phenomenon is occupying my thoughts
i liked the little piece of info about unconscious decision making where you mistake frequency is minimized and eliminated by AIM.
Kind Regards,K
Interesting quote
'Don't look too much at stock prices. Everytime you look, you make
an unconscious decision. If you look a lot, you make a lot of these decisions and the probability of a wrong action increases. Once a month is enough'
Kind regards,K
Once per month is the maximum frequency to trade
Lichello also mentioned trading once a quarter. Nice when you use 90 days term deposits for the cash.
Kind Regards,K
November, 2005.............
Was very generous.
Total value up nearly 6%.
Sells entered for monday execution:)
Kind Regards,K
The worst case is that I end up with Aim By the Book, the best case is I use Aim with Vealie and have more shares to sell when Aim triggers a "real sell
That is really funny...
Is that a feeling you have about AIM BtB?:)
I would propose vealies when you really want to sell, especially at the start of the Bull, when your cash level is low.
When your feeling about Vealies is that they are great and your cash level is adequate, then i would sell.
I feel that monitoring your feelings can give you aggregate information about the markets in a non-analytic way. It is a tool that you dont want to discard.:)
If you feel that the stock is great and a real 100 bagger the vealie is nice, if it isnt the vealie is ....
My 1.5 cents,
Kind Regards,K