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Aurado Exploration Ltd -- Time to buy?
Hey!!! Life is good, check this out!
http://www.savekaryn.com/
Iraq raid ruse robs gold price of $8
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5FUTCS
Kastel... about these f'n little junior miners-- 'bout had enuff. I'm finding it more entertaining swing trading large liquid big names than holding these god forsaken little runts.
Birim wasn't my only pain in the ass-- so was Candante and Sultan.......................
-- Remember that biotech stock I was playing with earlier this month? Well, Ligand Pharma (LGND) opened down as much as 35% this morning -- being the risk taker that I am -- got in at $4.95. It's a starter position and I will double up if the chart starts basing like the one I posted for Agnico Eagle.
Regards,
Michael
...waz way up eh? yeah, me too...
It's been quite the 24 hours -- it was only yesterday that we were running out of oil and $80 crude was a real possibility.
Today, Saddam changed everything.
I suspect the mood can change back to greed (or is it fear?) pretty fast since we are playing on the terrorist home turf. They managed WTC; I can't see why they couldn't pull-off a substantial strike against their own oil production facilities, with or without Saddam's permission.
A rocket launcher in the box of a pick-up truck?
...and for the price of crude becoming radically cheap-- I'm not so sure. Wasn't it just yesterday that inventories were reported to be down to 282 million barrels? This is in the face of constant cheating from OPEC members running the taps at full bore?
...and gold-- the price did drop substantially if you were looking at a daily chart, but if you really think about it, Saddam only made up 2% of the fear factor in the yeller dawg, two freaking percent??? The rest of this golden bull is made up of corporate and guberment malfeasance.
IMHO... The bulls are in control-- it just wasn't today.
Regards,
Michael
...agreed, Iraq/oil -- is a better speculation -- PoG seems to be dropping endlessly here-- down to $316.
Peace rally here we come?
Regards,
Michael
It now looks like we know what the war premium was on the PoG-- a 2% correction isn't as bad as one would think.
Regards,
Michael
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd -- Time to buy?
Platinum price threatens Chinese demand
http://www.mips1.net/mgpw1.nsf/UNID/SBAY-5FTK8B?OpenDocument
Augie... great work....one thing I can add here is the way CNQ recovers-- where's the basing pattern? This play certainly isn't without risk. The stock falls as fast as it recovers, supported without any basing patterns.
...as they say-- we shall see.
Regards,
Michael
Here's a couple of more news stories just to show how wild I really am... :)
Regards,
Michael
-----------------------------------------
Q3 Natural Gas Production Down 5.4%
By John Edmiston
HOUSTON (Dow Jones) - Third-quarter U.S. dry natural gas production from 38 of a total of 43 major U.S. companies fell as much as 5.4% from 2001 and about 1.1% from the last quarter, according to a Lehman Bros. survey.
http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1&storyID=587965
Oil rises after surprise fall in U.S. crude stocks
Reuters, 11.13.02, 5:38 AM ET
LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday after an industry report showed an unexpected fall in crude stocks and the wait continued for a decision from Iraq on whether it would agree to U.N. demands to disarm.
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/11/13/rtr792842.html
Why Lower Interest Rates Matter
Advisors Financial Center, LLC
Montebello Park
75 Montebello Road
Suffern, New York 10901
(Tel) (845) 368-0938
NOVEMBER 8 -- Many people seem to wonder if the latest interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve will help the economy when 11 prior cuts have not.
And they worry that the Fed knows something bad about the economy that the public does not know. In fact, the Fed gets the same data available to the public and past interest rate cuts have helped quite a bit. Therefore, the latest should provide some additional impetus to growth.
The notion that past rate cuts haven't helped requires that all other factors be ignored. We know that households have been on a refinancing boom, lowering their monthly mortgage payments or taking out cash to finance spending. This has been a great benefit to customers, who have been able to increase spending throughout the recession and to help support the economy in the recovery.
Lower interest rates will now force consumers and business to take more risk, since the return earned on safe investments, such as bank deposits, money market funds, or Treasury securities has fallen to very low levels.
-- Dr. Charles Lieberman, Chief Investment Officer
http://online.wsj.com/barrons/market_watch_today
Augie... my man!!! T/A please. :)
Slider is cool for the big picture-- spot on actually. I wouldn't of even considered investing in gold stocks without his wake up call and his adept knowledge of history. But he doesn't recognise short-term trends (when they start, stop and overlap) especially well.
Here's a chart on a stock I bought earlier today-- would you think I was being kinda of reckless? It's mostly a heavy oil play here in Alberta-- they just reported some severe depletion from one of their natural gas wells (ladyfern) in British-Colombia-- hence the correction.
Anyway... be sure to look at it from a longer time frame-- I've set my stop loss at the $38 level.
thanks in advance...
Regards,
Michael
Crude back above $26 in after-hours
API posts steep drop in last week's crude inventories
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0DA587D3%2D5356%2D4CC0%2D8AED%2D96545B5072DA%7D&am...
I'm here waiting for you to say something????
well????????? :)
Anyway... what do you think of the oilpatch? Just too many conflicting F/A thoughts for me at the moment.
TIA
Regards,
Michael
b... the options Gerry’s link pretty much sums it up-- if you let the market swallow you. This thread is pretty intense-- makes you wonder if these folks have another life besides the one I see online. Personally, I don't do 4000 trades a year-- last year I did 233 and it looks like I'll probably do the same this year.
Yes, I read three newspapers a day, chart dozens of stocks and I'm also up at 5AM and don't think about anything else until I fall asleep at 10PM.
Intense daytrader? Nope... I can't physically do it. I can't physically handle sitting in front of a computer 12 hours straight without the muscles in my neck getting so f'n tight that I could die. I get headaches from this kind of abuse too.
How do I manage to make money away from my silicon master? I swing trade natural resources-- holdings periods are anywhere from 1 week to 4 months-- I even have some stocks in my portfolio that are over a year old (the one I'm talking about happens to be a 5 bagger).
I work a full-time job so I have stable cash flow. I invest without margin-- and I don't short.
Will I ever be a full-time trader? I can’t possibly be more full-time that I am now, without suffering the physical problems. FWIW, I see time as my friend—and I’ll probably retire in 10 or so years with too much money because I don’t withdraw from my brokerage account.
Anyway... I'm ramblin' now so good luck!
Regards,
Michael
bought Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-TSX) @ $40.94
Joe... go to the users profile -- copy the URL, you'll notice at the end of the address "user=(number)" then remove that users' number from your filter list.
Regards,
Michael
Bema Gold in bough deal worth up to C$16 mln
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/11/08/rtr789010.html
--there's not a whole lot left
...except for tradin' stocks! :)
Regards,
Michael
Kastel... from my own personally experiences, decide on the percentage of your portfolio that you are going to trade.
How about this...
1/3 LTBH (energy trust?)
1/3 swing trade (intermediate time frame)
1/3 daytrade (short term)
You need a plan-- you also need to understand momentum, resistance and support levels and everyday market oscillations.
BTW, selling is the hardest part, at least for me-- gold stocks are super tuff because of the blue sky potential. Geez, what happens if you sell and the company is taken over for twice the price or worse, they produce the perfect drill results?
I say f...it -- just trade'em...
Regards,
Michael
Jim... I forced myself to become a little more bullish on the PoG-- sold a biotech stock to buy a good ol'fashioned gold stock.
...added Cumberland Resources earlier today-- the juniors are still lagging in a big way, but if memory serves they catch up in a big way too.
-- just seen an interview with Robert McEwan, Chairman and CEO, Goldcorp -- he's pretty bullish, he's calling for $350 gold before the end of this year. Goldcorp also has over 6 tons of ol'yeller in inventory which is more gold than 40 small central banks combined around the world.
Regards,
Michael
So I'm guessing that was you eh? -- The bid at $2.05 disappears and then it was crossed at $2.20?
good choice.
Candente Resource Corp. - Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc. - Drilling to commence on Island Pond property, Botwood Basin, Newfoundland
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021107/va299_1.html
WillP... sorry for the delayed response-- yes the chart! I've been trying to buy this sucker ever since the $2.11 mark where it touched the bottom of the channel. I felt yesterday's drop was finally my opportunity to get in, I wish I would of got it cheaper-- but don't we all? :)
Regards,
Michael
I guess I'm not... lol! When I decide to move, I buy, I buy and buy somemore-- no matter the price. Some of the juniors are trading at the bottom of the trading channel-- Kinross and Eldorado are not.
...and example
Kinross Chart:
Cumberland Chart:
I believe there is some "unrealised" value...
Regards,
Michael
>
Bernard... I'm venturing into the great white North by buying Cumberland @2.20
Regards,
Michael
sold LGND @ $7.38 (+10%)
Zeev, I agree-- but if a silver/gold chart were to go parabolic can you not think of a better time? People keep talking about deflation-- and I don't see it. Have you looked at a cocoa chart? How about wheat and soybeans? Movie tickets, car insurance, dry cleaning and gasoline? Inflation is everywhere-- which is why some of my junior gold miners have been 5 baggers.
I intend on keeping my core positions -- but on the other hand I have no problem with swing trading my way through the rest of this recession.
best,
Michael
Zeev, as far as I can tell, no-- at least nothing published from BH, yet. fwiw... I'm not a real believer either way, (mo-mo?) but what I can tell you is that there's been an extreme pullback in mining exploration budgets and I'm not just talking about gold and silver-- I'm talking about all base-metals. If the world economy slowed to a crawl... zero growth, we'd still be consuming over 24 billion pound of copper per year. If the price of commodities don't go up, they won't be produced... which is why I play the natural resources -- because unlike stocks, commodities never go to zero.
Anyway...
(from the top of my head) Over 2/3 of silver that's produced is a by-product of base-metal mining. If the conspiracy hounds are right-- there would be no conceivable way to increase silver production in any expedient manner if there were, mysteriously, an "event."
...as for photography? The data you're looking at is incorrect. The use of silver in film has gone up... disposible camera sales have gone up relative to digital-- especially from China. You need a computer to go with your camera -- developing nations still prefer the basics. Check out Pan American's web site, I believe it was in one of their conference calls I was listenning to awhile back.
If anything I'll dig a little deeper into this-- might be worth chatting about after hours tomorrow.
Regards,
Michael
b... back in 1998, Mr Buffet bought (through BH) 20% of the outstanding supply of silver in the world. I believe he has only mentioned it three times within the Berkshire Hathaway annual reports.
...the chairman's letter:
Our second non-traditional commitment is in silver. Last year, we purchased 111.2 million ounces. Marked to market, that position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997. In a way, this is a return to the past for me: Thirty years ago, I bought silver because I anticipated its demonetization by the U.S. Government. Ever since, I have followed the metal's fundamentals but not owned it. In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Inflation expectations, it should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/1997ar/1997.html
...and from the Consolidated Financial Statements:
(6) Commitment to purchase silver
During 1997, the Company entered into several forward contracts to purchase silver during the first quarter of 1998. As of December 31, 1997, the Company had committed to purchase 111.2 million ounces of silver which had an estimated fair value of about $665 million. Subsequent to year end, the Company committed to purchase an additional 18.5 million ounces of silver. The Consolidated Statement of Earnings for 1997 includes a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million representing the excess of fair value over net cost of the commitments.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/1997ar/consolid.html
...and a little blurb in the 1998 AR:
Last year I deviated from my standard practice of not disclosing our investments (other than those we are legally required to report) and told you about three unconventional investments we had made. There were several reasons behind that disclosure. First, questions about our silver position that we had received from regulatory authorities led us to believe that they wished us to publicly acknowledge this investment. Second, our holdings of zero-coupon bonds were so large that we wanted our owners to know of this investment's potential impact on Berkshire's net worth. Third, we simply wanted to alert you to the fact that we sometimes do make unconventional commitments.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/1998ar/1998final.html
Also --- You might want to check out David Morgan, he's written extensively about silver:
The Smartest Money
David Morgan
Precious Metals Analyst
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan052902.htm
Silver Fundamentals or Funny Mentals?
by David Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan100202.htm
Regards,
Michael
b... you need to check out your facts on the silver situation-- since I'm not a professional writer I'll give you a two word summary.
Warren Buffet.
Regards,
Michael
Lane... excellent post -- check your profile, I'm number 14 on the counter.
Best Regards,
Michael
Seems to me gold stocks are the leading indicator... they may have even peaked as the laggrds on my watchlist were the biggest percentage gainers.
Regards,
Michael
R... I hope you're right -- PoG spot price is heading North again-- up $1.40 as of this writing. The only unbullish thing I can say about yeller dawg is that the volumes on the leading stocks were rather low for my taste.
We shall see...
Regards,
Michael
yeah, no kiddin' -- but then again, this market is proving to be unpredictable. It wouldn't surprise me that the markets continued to rally as the PoO keeps dropping. There was quite a correction in the Canadian oilpatch this afternoon-- I see this as a positive for the consumer going into Christmas.
Regards,
Michael
...about Edge, they explore mainly in the Southern States-- believe it or not, there's still some prospective properties down in Louisiana that haven't been drilled yet.(?) They also have some claims in Wyoming-- Powder River Basin area which is famous for its coal bed methane.
...about Purcell-- I picked it up today in the all Canadian, all natural gas swoon that hit the sector this afternoon. There's been a fair bit of insider trading on this one, and unlike Anooraq -- the people in-the-know are buying.
As for being a trader? Never used to be-- it's the volatility in todays market that makes me do it. Someday, someday soon-- we'll miss these large percentage moves.
Regards,
Michael
Personally, I think the shorts should be careful around the bull these days-- with oil falling to a 19-week low this can only mean a war with Iraq has been put off, maybe for good? The so-called "we-stick-together" cartel know as OPEC is flush full of cheaters. I'd say low oil prices might be a nice Christmas present for the U.S.
Overcapacity is a nice way to say I'm sorry...
NYMEX crude ends down on OPEC output, gasoline
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021106/markets_energy_nymex_6.html
Regards,
Michael
Meadowbank Gold Project: Vault Deposit Final Drill Results
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/021106/eca3ac0127b5d2adc4eb8a66c7f9b17c_1.html