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What makes that even more alarming was that most people with an understanding of the filing only saw it as an extreme longshot to begin with. Reading this board you would have thought it was a shoe in. Little did I realize, it would have been unprecedented had they actually approved it given the limited dataset. The amount of money they spent and the situation we're now in hinged on (hate this term) a Hail Mary.
Agree on the two options at this point, however unfortunate it may be. I'm still hopeful HOT is worth what they think it is...
I agree with you completely.
Fine. U wanna shelve HOT until then? Drop the workforce accordingly? Sign me up.
Costs in both these programs are only increasing and AXAL costs are still TBD.
$30 million dollars is nowhere near enough to see NEO/HOT to fruition, nor worth the risk for any shareholder to take. Not to mention we'd be in deep penny land at that point. Either sell or make a cash deal. That's it!
I suppose the stock has only cratered slightly since his inauguration. He may be swinging for the fences and if misses, then dilution will be certain. No love lost. Tony made the massive mistake of waiting and then failing and ultimately diluting. Certainly worrisome nothing has come yet.
HAHA yeah. Fighting for these shares is getting to be cutthroat business. It's so bad Hedgies hired troops to try and steal shares from Ihub board members! Likewise, Renaissance had to sell half their long position to cover their short! This time it's for real.
“The average holding period for a security on the New York Stock Exchange has fallen from two months in 2008 to just under 20 seconds today” https://t.co/7acSmwZfH0
— Jon Lieber 🇺🇸 (@lieber2k) August 6, 2018
I agree with you. Not sure how his cost cutting measures will work out if he doesn't have a financial justification for continuing it by then somehow.. Pretty sure Ranya also stated they gave themselves a strict timeline in finding a partner.
Time is not slowing down.. He has to be willing to shelve it for now.
It should be assessed whenever the company does a financial filing. Management is supposed to self report as well.
IDK though... The topic of going concern became an issue after Noel mentioned it as one of the reasons for the 2$ dilution earlier this year. I can't believe there aren't multiple biotech's that operate with going concern issues and do so just fine. Specifically the 12 months of operating cash, plus we have no debt.
Regardless, cash will be the hot topic, forget about going concern. Also, of course a cash rich deal makes the issue nil, but where's the deal...?
Yeah... problem is our cash burn is still too high and things will get tougher as HOT ramps up. It's a short term fix and going concern will be a topic going into the next CC. Hoping we're closer than I think to ending this drought.
I'm beginning to think that maybe Kenny IS starting from close to nothing.
Lombo said he was in discussion with several parties regarding AXAL and it would expand to include US/EU rights as EMA decision approached... That changed.
Never heard him mention HOT deal, but could be wrong.
Dilution bomb is definitely ticking. Only recourse could be the potential milestone payment from AMGEN over dosage. Still doesn't change narrative though of absolutely ZILCH for deals going on 2 years + now...
Scary times.
They absolutely need news before the Sept CC. I can't imagine how Ken would even spin the cash situation at that point. You don't announce a deal on a CC either or try and time a deal to make sure warrants are expired (as some here have discussed).
It's crunch time and this has been YEARS in the making. Kenny better not let us down...
IDK. I think it would depend on if he actually did have the funding for a $420/share buyout or not. If he didn't, I would consider that manipulation and/or a false statement coming from the founder/CEO. TSLA is a high profile name with a monstrous short following and I can't believe that tweet didn't at least pique the interest of the SEC... The funding issue could be proven.
At the very least it was a very unorthodox announcement from a company like that to make over twitter, and now I'd like something like that from KEN!
Haha, I know! They have a pretty prominent group of short sellers too. This thing is going to be interesting on how it plays out. SEC anyone?
It's actually just him and a group of investors looking to take TSLA private @ $420/share (20% premium). The Saudi's are considered one of the players as they just took a large stake in the company with their sovereign wealth fund. Elon would maintain his stake in the company.
Agree with you on the announcement of an I-Bank if they can't secure any non-dilutive funding. It's been YEARS already! Dilution here is not an option.
Maybe Ken needs to announce they hired on I-Bank on twitter...
Haha - I'm not 100% sure. Apparently it's real though as the company still hasn't refuted it. At the bare minimum he must have the funding secured otherwise there's no question this would be highly dubious and market manipulation.
Nonetheless, I can't believe the SEC is not having a field day with this tweet. Elon has maybe finally lost it... Talk about a short squeeze.
Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2018
Amgen doesn't HAVE to buy them now. I dont know what their interest is with HOT either, maybe they think they already got the sweetheart deal. A lot rides on NEO results and being that none of us know anything about it, claiming that Amgen will never want ADXS is ludicrous.
You did nail the AXAL story so far though. Kudos for that. We'll see what he gets for it but I'm writing it off for now.
Actually, you'll get to keep your donuts.
If Ken can't get a strong deal for HOT then post the for sale sign. ADXS isn't going to win this war without wiping out shareholders (again)...
I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts Ken has something lined up with HOT for NSCLC. They were very specific in that construct and im counting on their DD to prevail. The question then comes down to how much money, if any, he'll get for it. I personally dont see how HOT is more valuable than NEO as it just doesn't make sense that personalized treatment can be less valuable than an off the shelf one, particularly over time as costs diminish. There is value to instantly treating and initial cheap administration for sure, but how much? He needs to announce something before the Sept call. Clock is ticking and the HOT trial needs to be funded considering they have 9 more to go...
Or just sell the whole Company/HOT and lets move on.
Very rational and reasonable. Nice for a change. Well said.
The deal should have hopefully already been drawn up contingent on the approval. I hope we see something else regarding this construct soon... ie money.
Or just sell the whole thing.
As with anything, it all depends on what the deal is for. I'd take a modest up front cash deal for a single construct or two. But if we end up giving away all of HOT then it better be for a couple hundred million. Also, I agree with Keithz, at that point the whole company should just be acquired.
I also don't think we piecemeal each construct separately, but I could be wrong. HOT and BP's thoughts of it are still a mystery to me...
Well that's good to know. Wasn't sure what to make of it. Thanks for the tidbit..
Ah, shoot! Wishful thinking I guess.
Thanks for the response, Dew.
Did anyone listen to their conference call (earnings)? I missed it. Was wondering if any mention of NEO on it...
I agree. It's very difficult to have a reasonable convo with the amount of emotion involved with this stock right now. Facts, precedent and balance are out the window and pushing a specific narrative is the only thing that matters. It's unfortunate.
Hey HTFS, was it you that recently came up with the ratio analysis regarding post #'s to value? lol. If so, I liked it.
Haha, sorry, not sure I get your reply.
Or do you mean my lack of mentioning the last year of dilution, missed milestones, Tony the interim, cash problems, AXAL being potentially shelved, no deals... Sorry if that wasn't inferred.
I think this company has huge potential but they need to get out of the shadows and recognized again by investors with a big cash deal. We're stuck in the doldrums due to the last year plus. If you disagree with this then fine.
Where have you been???? What have they done to warrant that choke hold to be removed? What does the energy expended towards complaining about market actions have to do with them delivering? Do you feel given their abhorrent management and cash position that their stock deserves a higher price so they can raise money? What amazing news are you talking about? AXAL MAA was just pulled...
I'm saying nothing precludes them from delivering and showing BP is interested. There's billions of capital out there and it will come when they can prove they're a real player once again. They fell off the horse and need to get back on.
It's irrelevant to ADXS delivering on a deal. I couldn't care less what the shorts or anyone else is doing. ADXS hasn't delivered or executed at all. They will continue to be penalized as long as they dont deliver. We are extremely cheap for sure, but balls in ADXS court. IMO.
A PR complaining about sh. price or shorts is never received well. It's usually out of desperation. We know exactly what they need to PR and the question is will they get it done. The congenial wmtgreeter w/GED is 100% accurate on this..
This market is scared spitless there's going to be another secondary here. Can't blame 'em.
Yes FBG, but they own their science outright and have 150 million in cash. We are just in a different position right now. We will have our day once Ken closes a deal.
Haha yeah - Waterloo part deux for Kenny B after the ROSG massacre.
Sorry gold, waiting is not in the cards. Postponing any deal to wait for the right "timing" is absurd. It's never the right time.
I'd like to get a nice bridge loan then to get us there. We are running on fumes.
These guys just can't execute for some reason. It's either the science is too immature/missing or we have poor negotiators that don't know how to sell it.
LOL - well then not sure whats happened to your talking points as of late.
The stock is discounted heavily due to ineptness and cash problems. It needs to show dilution is off and science is wanted with a new deal. There is no doubt ADXS has been severely punished for their track record and that's what the price reflects. ADXS themselves need to show they're a viable investment once again..
Sorry to see ya go, Sandman. GL