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The #2 biggest NTRP investor is friends with Obama? Amazing.
This company now has a CEO and COO from Forest Labs that worked on Namenda, which is the last drug to be approved for Alzheimer's, a CSO with connections to the Rockefeller family, the co-founder of Pizza Hut, the NIH, and Stanford University, and now a 13G investor who's friends with Obama?
With connections like these there should be no problem pushing this drug through the system.
Maybe the SP is sad and doesn't feel like doing anything. You never know.
At least 5 million warrants can be exercised right now.
And yet they still haven't been exercised with results due in just one or two weeks.
Lots of big boys seem very optimistic about results considering the minimal amount of warrants and options that have been cashed in.
Pretty exciting combination of long-term holders and short shorts going on here. Should make for one heck of a trading day once the data is out.
Severe AD is just the proof of concept. The end goal is neurorestoration for all kinds of neurological diseases and traumas.
Pretty bold move to go after the biggest of them all first.
Yes, I think it has been mentioned in several interviews that patients (or at least their caregivers) have asked to stay on the drug.
Good point.
Having a CSO that comes from the NIH could also help push things through faster.
They've already given Alkon a breakthrough designation for his biomarker test after all.
Of course. It takes time for these things to work their way through the system, and I'm sure even good results would face some resistance from an industry still clinging to the amyloid hypothesis.
But how much would you say such a drug should be worth? If you owned such a platform, how much would it take for you to sell it?
Unless those warrants and options are exercised, there could be one heck of a liquidity crunch, not to mention short squeeze.
The float is barely 10 million shares big, half of which is owned by insiders, institutions or long-term 13G investors.
I think both sides can agree that Neurotrope is a potential one hit wonder.
Either the MOA is confirmed and this turns into a golden ticket to the chocolate factory, or it doesn't work and the company is left with nothing.
No need to guess who's right and who's wrong since we'll know for sure in a week or two.
If it does work out though, I don't see why this should be seen as a severe Alzheimer's drug when it's clear the only reason these patients are improving is because of their synapses being regrown.
So with that in mind, how much would you say the drug should be worth if it's shown to repair brain damage by activating endogenous repair mechanisms?
I'm seeing lots of valuations but all of them seem to have completely missed how this drug actually works and how many other diseases it could treat if it's confirmed.
Would you buy such a company for $5 billion? $10 billion? $20 billion?
I'm asking because I'm curious about what people would be willing to pay for something like that, no matter what company it comes from.
No, not Biogen. If Neurotrope went bankrupt tomorrow and someone else found a cure, how much would you say it's worth?
Assuming they go bankrupt tomorrow and someone else cures Alzheimer's instead, how much would you say that cure could be worth?
"When an individual acquires beneficial ownership of a 5% to 20% stake of a particular stock, that individual must file either Schedule 13D or 13G within 10 days of the acquisition."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/schedule13g.asp
Looks like he got in VERY recently (or at least bought 3.8% of the company in the last 10 days).
If he owns 8.8% of the company that means there's still only about 13 million outstanding shares, which means less than 50,000 warrants were exercised in August.
Considering there's millions of warrants ITM, I'd say warrant holders are pretty optimistic about results too.
1,150,000 shares in total.
980,000 owned by him.
170,000 owned jointly by him and his children.
365,000 of those 980,000 shares underlying 3650 calls.
100,000 of those 170,000 shares underlying 1000 calls.
meaning
615,000 shares and 3650 calls for himself
70,000 shares and 1000 calls for his children.
At least that's how I'm interpreting it.
Below 5% fully diluted. Don't forget the warrants.
He'll still get a huge profit though if this thing pops.
4650 calls actually. Each contract covers 100 shares.
Quite the optimistic position either way. This guy must've spent almost a million dollars on calls alone. At least $4.5 million if you count the regular shares.
Has a biology degree from Harvard and used to sit on the board of directors for Fannie Mae. Is also currently on the board for Denny's.
Impressive.
If Biogen can get a $20 billion valuation for an MCI drug meant to slow the decline then I think $5 billion for reversing brain damage would be quite the steal.
Charge 500k patients $10k for a year long treatment and you'll make that money back in a year and enjoy another 15 or so years of growing revenues until the patents expire.
Confirmed results would be a black swan.
Also worth noting:
The Friday PR was released 7.30 in the morning last time.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-bioscience-to-release-results-from-phase-2-clinical-trial-in-moderate-to-severe-alzheimers-disease-on-may-1-2017-300447822.html
Things may be different this time, but if they are not then the first PR should come out early morning on the 13th. The top-line results would then be released early morning on the 16th.
Last time they said April and released it on May 1st. This time they're saying early September, so the 16th would also fit into that pattern of being one day late, two months after trial completion.
Just my two cents.
IMO they'll likely do what they did last time and announce the date on a Friday, then do the press release and conference call the following Monday morning.
Nothing was announced today, so I think it's safe to say the data will not be coming out this week.
Yup. The information got bored and decided to run away so now they have to catch it before it's too late.
Probably has something to do with the data that decided it didn't want to get leaked today.
It did take 2 months last time, so I'm betting on the 16th.
Maybe even the 23rd if they feel like messing with the option holders.
Could be. Maybe it was great at first but then it went bad because they forgot to put it back in the fridge.
Don't forget statistically significant.
There's a reason they call this a "replication trial" and "confirmatory trial".
If the crowd disagrees with that they can short this all they want. I just hope they do it because they have done their research instead of just following what everyone else is doing.
Look up "Asch conformity experiments" if you want to see just how difficult it is for most people to disagree with the majority opinion.
Dang, looks like someone forgot to leak the data today.
I tried picking up some more cheap shares but the price keeps going the wrong way.
Correct, that is the current market sentiment.
New article: http://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/alzheimer-s-disease-research-finds-new-beginnings
"While we have every reason to believe that we can treat much milder cases and even prevention, we chose patients with advanced AD because we saw benefits in the compassionate use patients, which were very advanced. And it's because the industry basically has abandoned that niche and we wanted to see whether we could undertake that challenge."
Maybe, but there's plenty of warrants to make up for that.
Makes you wonder how many of those shorts are naked...
Open interest for September/October calls now covers 7.7% of outstanding shares.
24% of volume last Friday were shorts, and it's not even September yet.
The upcoming PR sure is going to cause one hell of a ruckus.
Dang, looks like I accidentally scared the data back into its cave again.
My apologies.
Because the data unleaks itself on those days lol
3-5x projected sales seems to be the norm for biotech acquisitions:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-26/amgen-to-buy-celgene-s-psoriasis-drug-otezla-for-13-4-billion
"Amgen Inc. will pay $13.4 billion for a blockbuster psoriasis drug from Celgene Corp."
"The psoriasis drug had sales last year of $1.61 billion, and is expected to bring in revenue of $2.71 billion in 2023, according analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg."
13.4 billion / 2.71 billion = 4.94
IMO it's kind of a cautious optimism, like a train leaving the station that's about to fly to the moon.
Low stock price says the crowd expects this train to explode like all the others have before, but high option prices says they're still willing to pay extra for train tickets, just in case it does manage to leave the station without exploding.
1. The market is expecting big moves
2. It's expecting those moves before September 20th
The market is basically saying "If this works, it's going to be huge".
+500% IV on September calls now