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Good post oiljob. And yeah, I was once offered an opportunity to get to the Alaska area. Our Army colonel decided a little field work would be good. I only had about 6 weeks left before getting out. At any rate, to keep the old man happy, I flew up with the guys and landed and headed immediately to our huts and hanger. Got some hot coffee, tried to get warm by the pot bellied stove, and promptly told everyone, thanks, have a good time, and headed back to the plane for a return trip stateside. Oh, I didn't mention the reason for my abrupt decision to return. It was -40. Thought my b---s would freeze off before I could climb back up into the plane.
So, oiljob, since you have been in the oil patch, how far out from shore can TECO drill a horizontal well? And by the way, from what I see on the maps, there appear to be several small islands that TECO could set up a rig, have sufficient land around them to construct a barrier burm, and with safety precautions, drill into those oil sturctures. Possible? or not? And still, it could be at least three or four years before they may want to take that challenge. I understand what you are saying, but it seems to me like you are indicating TECO has the challenge of climbing Mt. Everest, and in reality they are just starting out on a 2000' Texas hill. I applaud your foresight, as all business plans should go out as many as three years, but I'm not sure we're really ready for the offshore situation yet. Just seems a little premature in my opinion. After all, if they are as successful as BNE onshore, and can generate 5000bbls per day in production in a couple of years, how much do you think the stock will be worth at that time?
Oiljob, with about 200,000 acres of onshore land to drill on, and with eight permits already allowed by the Belize authorities, noting the first two have to have final EPA clearance for the remaining permits to be final, TECO has a sufficient number of drilling opportunities to last a year. If they are successful with say 70% as is one of their competitors BNE, then they should be ready in 2013 for more permits, on land. Wasn't there a PR that mentioned that they had determined that there may be as many as 85 potential well sites. If that number is even half accurate, and they have 42 possible sites, that is enough potential drilling to last three or even four years. Do you really think management or investors need to worry about that potential situation that you mention now? And the 200,000 doesn't consider any of the 1,000,000 acres that they just acquired which could even extend their onshore opportunity further.
Yeah fmi81, but I'm still PO'd that Bloomberg, in his infinite wisdom would not allow any men of faith, nor firemen, nor police to be in the lead of the rememberance party. Guess he doesn't remember what role they all played on 9/11. I wonder what axe he has to grind, or did the directions come from Washington? JMO
I'll say this DTL, if it drops to .02, I'll buy another 2,000,000 shares without even blinking, and maybe more. I'm really looking forward to a very Merry Green Christmas!
klipnocky, it's just those darn stock charts that are crooked. Sometimes even difficult to discern. Surely the stock market is not crooked as that's the only game we have to play. But not to worry on TECO. All stocks have their gyrations. Soon, we will be seeing pictures of a drilling rig in Belize working TECO's first well. Keep an eye posted on their website or facebook. And soon, we'll see even more production from Texas as they complete more workover wells and bring them up to speed. As was posted yesterday, just Texas alone could make this company pps worth .35. When the company hits oil in Belize, my hope is that then that TECO's media folks can get a blurb in a major newspaper, hey, maybe even a major mag, and then the rest of the country will know what fantastic job TECO management is doing of moving this company's business plan forward.
Great News. TECO Texas...a good business plan coming together. More production, more revenue. How could investors like this company more when their company is going to move from about $200,000 in revenue in October to over $2,000,000 in revenue within a year? And what if Belize just happens to produce an equal amount? You could be invested in a company that has gone from nothing to about $50,000,000 in revenue in about two years. I'd say for a nice bulletin board company, GOOD JOB! Unfortunately for those who routinely wish for a White Christmas, hey, would you settle for a Green Christmas instead?
You may want to go back a few weeks and reread the PR regarding the shipment of equipment to Belize. As I read over the list, I notice that one worthwhile and necessary piece that was not shipped was a blowout preventer. Now, my guess is that piece of equipment is needed in Belize, and probably a required piece by the country's EPA. Therefore, that needs to be shipped and we haven't heard about that happening yet. Also, a reread will refocus on the fact that the managment said that the roads would have to sit a bit and weather and settle. Sometimes that can take three or four weeks, sometimes longer if you don't get rain, or have a water truck and a heavy roller. So, for anyone thinking that the process is starting today, or tomorrow, you might kick back and look for a PR regarding more and necessary equipment being shipped, etc. Oiljob can probably concur, drilling wells doesn't just happen on a perfectly timed schedule. There are a lot of minor situations that can cause minor delays. There are usually two questions to ask the field supervisor. What's the schedule? When do you think it'll get done? Usually there are two different dates, sometimes weeks apart. The good thing is, it will get done. And with a little luck and a smile from above, TECO will hit oil, and maybe a lot of it, in Belize.
Understandably the pps of TECO has drifted lower just like the market. However, has everyone remembered that in the last PR, TECO management mentioned that the Texas wells are in a rework program, which I would take to mean more production can be expected, and thus more revenue. I recognize that other posters may have other issues regarding TECO to discuss via posting, but surely more production and subsequently more revenues merits some more attention, doesn't it. And keep in mind the date today. It should be only two or three more weeks before the first well in Belize gets started. So as another poster has put it, have you acquired enough shares of TECO at these cheap prices yet? It just could double by the end of Sept, or maybe triple. Do you have any other investment that might do that in that time frame?
Perhaps president Obama has given folks an idea of what TECO may be worth simply through their 50% ownership of the lease rights to 2,000,000 acres of potential oil producing properties. Just recently Obama and his administration stated that new Gulf of Mexico lease blocks would be put up for bid at about $100 per acre. So, simple math means that the 2,000,000 acre concession that TECO has rights to could be worth $200,000,000, and their 50% portion would only be worth $100,000,000. So it appears that their market cap is currently undervalued. Please do the math yourself to make sure I haven't made a mistake. Being blind sometimes has it's limits. And gee, even if you discount the value by 50%, the TECO portion still has a value of $50,000,000. With this in mind, TECO stock should be about .08, right now. And that's without any production, of which they have that as well in Texas. And this represents only the opportunity to look, of which TECO has now paid for that, had their look, and now are ready to proceed with drilling. They currently have 8 permits, of which they can drill the first two, get continued approval from the Belize government, and move on to drilling the remaining initial approved number of wells. In effect, they are way ahead of a company just reviewing the lease docs, putting a bid, and praying they get it ahead of others. TECO has accomplished all of that. So, from this deduction, you can conclude that the .08 run up a few weeks ago was in fact right on target for the real value of TECO, today. Now when they come in with a well this month, and get Texas production up, the stock could be in the .15 to .20 range. What a fantastic opportunity to buy today for .04 and potentially be getting a stock for half of its value.
Why is it that you have to use 'street language' to tell your story?
Agreed Strong. In the meantime, I could have given you a stock that has gone from .15-.17 to a close yesterday at $1.10. A reasonably nice gain--considering it took only ten to twelve trading days. If that's what you're expecting here for ARSC, you may be disappointed. They would have to go to .18-.19 to achieve the same. Which one would you be smiling about?
Gee Strong, now that you have your emotions out, can you post your objective reasoning comments. Or are they the same as you posted yesterday and the day before, and the day before that. You are certainly the best promoter for owning ARSC stock. But we have heard the same song and dance for almost a year, and guess what. The stock simply has not performed. Perhaps its time to perform some majic and make this thing go up, as the company seems to have no solutions. Their last two press releases did pratically nothing for their pps. They continue to dilute any value they may produce in the future by issuing large amounts of shares each quarter. Consdier the percentages, and not the number of shares. They are issuing over 10% of the outstanding stock each quarter. So the company value is diluted by at least 50% each year the last two years. That's a mountain to climb when action starts. And action is what I and others want, and objectively, I'm sure you do also.
Strongus, if you are indicating that the last time was yesterday, and the resulting move was 0, then it won't take much to move up. In fact, it looks like from the trading history that there were more trades at less than .035 than at that number. The company just has to get certification very soon, and make some more sales, even if they are conditional if this stock is going to move higher.
Katrina, you may be right. And guess what. The same thing is happening today. Stock down this morning after late afternoon press release announcing LOI for another wind turbine company. Maybe they need to acquire all of them. Then they'd really have control of the market. Now, that would be 'something to announce.' They desperately need certification news, and damn quick before the stock falls below .03.
The following is an email message from Bob Farr, ARSC President as it is posted on the Yahoo ARSC message board. Interesting reading. Any questions anyone?
From Bob Farr bfarr@amsrcorp.com
05/31/2007
Michael
We will be performing numerous test on the fuel cell at a third party location, using third party owned equipment which has be calibrated by a third party. We were told this is standard procedure. There will be test at several outside locations and we are scheduling them now. I is our understanding that we will receive certification which is recognized in the US, Canada, and Europe. We are not anticipating certification in other countries at this time although that may be subject to change. We will put out a press release once we have this information firmed up and
test scheduled.
Best
Bob
From the last statement from Farr, as of May 31, they still had not scheduled the final testing. Hmmm. Let's hope they get it done soon otherwise more skepticism will prevail.
Uh guys, yep we're getting the dead cat alright. Maybe it's the drop before what all of us would hope to be a bounce. If there is a close below .03, then the chart looks like it could decline further to about .022-.024. If it drops to that, and everyone think about this, then it will take a 400% jump to get back to .10. No matter how much proponents make positive comments about ARSC, over the last year, you could have put the same funds into most any other stock and showed a gain of some kind, instead of the big drop by ARSC.
Katrina, it looks like they are diluting by about 15,000,000 to 18,000,000 more shares each quarter. My guestimation is that the second quarter q, which will be due out August 15, will probably show about 145,000,000 to 148,000,000 shares outstanding. That could possibly hit 150,000,000. That's why I've posted that they will probably be at 200,000,000 shares out by the end of this year. Just my opinion. There is the lack of certification, or the fact that it has taken so long, and now it's even been two months since an announcement of a sale. Seems like there is only the one company that has shown any real interest before certification. Oh well, guess we can all still hope.
Monday, Monday. Monday will be eight weeks since the preliminary certification. So all of you who have a connection to the company management, do you have a month when the final certification will become a reality? The lower the pps goes, the more difficulty for it to get back to .10 again. As some have posted, they have to put out a lot more shares just to get a few dollars. Since most capital folks take shares at a discount, you might say .03 is realistic. It takes 100,000 shares from the company just to bring in $3,000. If they are burning $150,000 per month, then they will need to issue 5,000,000 shares per month plus more for other expenses. So, that's over 15,000,000 shares per quarter plus other expenses.
This stock can go from 'green' to 'red' quicker than my screen adjusts from one website to another. WOW. From .39 to .35 in a heartbeat. It may take more than certification for this company to see .10 again. It may take a miracle.
TW, as a matter of fact. After all, it's 5 o'clock somewhere. Oh well, what's the matter with a misplaced 0. Hell ARSC has lost 12 months from when certification was supposed to happen. And we're still not there. Have another round on me.
At the rate this is going, will we ever see .10 on ARSC again? Let's see, at only .10 pps that would make a market cap value of about $130,000,000. And with their earnings, that would give it a multiple of 130,384,927 TIMES EARNINGS. Whew! Is that high?
Uh, oh yea. And what's that you're drinking? We all need some.
Great Idea! A stock dividend. Give another share for every ten shares someone owns. A tidy 10% stock dividend. Who knows? Pretty soon, we could have so many shares out that the stock will be trading at .00375. And we could say we own a part of a billion share company.
Yes Sir! That's seven, come eleven. Yep, this is the seventh week since the announcement on May 21st that the initial phase of certification was passed. The most difficult one according to ARSC. Wonder how much longer before the final certification comes in. And to think, it was all supposed to happen about one year ago. Could it be that they finally make it next week? Tune in and we'll see. And to further the comments made regarding OS. I'm betting they have at least 148,000,000 outstanding on their second quarter Q, which will be out by Aug 15th. Also, perhaps we should start a little game of seeing who can guess the date of or closest to the actual date of certification. My guess is July 30. (not putting a year)
Man DSP, if they would have listed them in alpha order, ARSC's Hydra would have been up a line.
Isn't this info pretty old now? Seems like it's half a year old already. Next week starts the third quarter of 2007. It would surely be great if ARSC finally gets certification sometime in this quarter. Another sale doesn't really make much difference until certification is effective as the sales are pending that. And to think back, all of this was supposed to happen last year during the third and fourth quarters. Perhaps one day we'll get some good news.
It's not so much that timelines aren't met, it's that it's a year or more later before they are met. Secondly, it's interesting that Frank says they have cleared all points and the acquisition of Maria Group is ready to close, and the subssequent action was not the acquisition, but merely the licensing of the residential unit. That's a far cry from an acquisition. And when anyone evaluates that, please consider that with the acquisition, it was going to cost the company 17,000,000 shares (?), and with the licensing, it cost them nothing. So it would seem you get the value from just that exchange of consideration.
Gotcha. Looking at the chart, it seems more that ARSC's pps has stayed so low for so long, all the averages have come down to it. So it seems that any run at all would break through the averages, that is if the run is north and not south. And we all know which way we want it to run.
Chris, please explain your second statement.
Only five weeks.
That's right. It's only been five weeks since the PR on 'phase one certification completion.' Soooo, how many more weeks til it's finished and an announcement can be made? Only then, and hopefully with more sales orders (hey, one'es are OK) will the stock have a chance to go up. Let's all hope it happens soon, and hope the pps gets a lot higher. IMO LOL
Now Track, you bet I would. I'm serving Blue Bell, and I'd sell those two cones, and naturally, I'd eat the rest. Don't ya know the Blue Bell man?
Strongus, in my opinion, the company would have to have about $5,000,000 in revenue just to break even, if they have a profit margin of about 40%. They burn about $2,000,000 in cash annually now, but that might increase with manufacturing expense. However, with $5,000,000 in revenue X5 (not profits), that gives a company value of about $25,000,000, which might give the pps a value of .12 given all that I have previously posted today. It seems that they will need to get to about $10,000,000 in revenue to have a nice year. And if they can then net profit about $1,000,000 out of that, and at a generous multiple of say 50, the pps could get to .25. Certainly, eager investors could run the price overboard. But with so many outstanding shares, it's going to be more difficult to do in my opinion.
Probably should have added one more thing. At .04, how many shares does it take to obtain $1,000,000 for the manufacturing of the fuelcells? Figure a discount of some kind. Let's say they find capital at 90% of the average pps over a period of time. Let's say that average is .04, so the discount is at .036. Now that's 27,777,777 more shares, and that's only for $1M. Conservatively, they are burning roughly 15,000,000 shares a quarter. So, by the end of the third quarter, with about 127,000,000 shares outstanding now, and assuming they get their $1,000,000 for only a 10% discount, and add in two more quarters of burn for 30,000,000 shares. At that rate they will have outstanding about 185,000,000 shares by the end of September, 2007. And if only the burn is added for the fourth quarter, by the end of 2007, they will hit 200,000,000 shares outstanding. Now the question is, what will the value of the company be, because that will determine your pps.
Frustrating!!! It really may take more than certification news and another sale or two to get this pps to .10. Just too much overhead. You have to remember there must be about 75,000,000 shares or more in the float. So, only 1% represents 750,000 shares. When the volume trades at 2,000,000, and the pps can't break a 25% gain, then you know the overhead is just too strong. Factor in that some of the 'traders' who have bought in at .035 to .045 see a 50% gain, to only about .07, then they have their 50% locked in and they begin to sell. So they add to the capital program stock overhead. Now you begin to see the problem for the pps to break .10. Until everyone is more prone to sit tight and let it run, moving a lot higher is going to be real tough. And then if a lot of investors start an exit strategy, that load won't allow the pps to hold. It may be the best thing for the company to make a few sales, then look to be acquired, or have their technology licensed by a larger company. With that action, perhaps the pps can move higher than .10. Just my opinion.
Strong, you may be right. That's unfortunate for the rest of us that they don't take advantage of the opportunity to let it move higher. It gets real tough shorting a .04 stock. There's just not much room going down from there. The trap could close at .03 and sure you would make a few points, but at .04 it sure seems like there is more upside potential than downside. You can only go down so far, but it could go up to .20 or more. Boy would that be a sight for sore eyes. LOL
Katrina, I really do hope these guys are not trying to deceive anyone. For sure they do things a little slow. Well, maybe slow isn't the right word. Perhaps hibernation is more like it. Or maybe they're like a groundhog. Come out and oops, more winter is coming, let's get back inside. No news usually spells problems for a pps. And certainly without news, ARSC has seen its pps drop significantly. Hopefully, soon, we will see certification. When that is announced, if the pps doesn't move dramatically then, we will know there is an underlying problem. In the meantime, it's Friday, time to hit the store, get some ribs and goodies and get ready for the weekend. Oh yeah, get the brewskies. Ya'll have a good one.
When an open window of opportunity like today for ARSC does nothing for the pps, the history of other bb stocks indicates an extremely powerful program of promotion is needed to move the pps significantly higher. Or they simply wind up going nowhere. We've seen two activities announced that I would bet a brewski to anyone that every poster on this board would have thought the pps would have at least gone up 30% or more. IE, the announcement of completion of the in-house certification, the primary phase; and second, the announcement of a sale. And not just any sale of a small unit. A good sized unit, although the company didn't divulge the value. Most any other company that each of you posters have in your portfolio would have gone up and stayed up, I would bet. But ARSC languishes. What could have been a really breakout day turns into another dissappointing adventure. Go figure.
Don't know about you guys, but I'm drinking whatever Ca is. A 20 bagger. OK by me. Anyone oppose that motion. All in favor say Aye. Now, let's move it on up. Want to go drink with the Jeffersons next.
Be careful Strong. If we can get a cross over of .05, seems like a march to .07. If not, if they don't post certification news quickly, then we could head back to .04 again. The pps has got to get over the .05 hump to get a chance for continued upward pressure from the buyers. Just my opinion, but I've followed this thing pretty closely for awhile. LOL