Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Currently the big financing is front and center in my mind. The Queen of Warnings has been worth listening to historically. Beyond her money warnings and discouragement of b/o hopes, warnings of clinical trial enrollment issues have been part of the sad story for several years. P2 first, before P3. Small company, complicated treatment for cancer, unrealistic investors. In retrospect the time for this company is when p3 enrollment looks done, but a big offering at this point in company history … Fact is Simpson is industrious, maybe a Goddess in the making
The Queen of warnings has been very consistent on enrollment problems. Concern number one to me is if this offering will be a good performance, concern number two would be if still manages $300 million or more market cap for end of phase 3. Maybe $250 million would be more reasonable considering how problematic the company/delcath is on everything
I think they will get approval if financed until then, but even with the big change of plan, enrollment will be close to 1 year behind schedule. Maybe end of phase 3 in 2019, but no reason to be cocky on timing given clinical delays = slow-cath. Then could take one year between end of phase 3 and approval
Exactly the reason has never been a buy out candidate. This rights offering if successful puts company on track to likely make it to approval. If 6 treatment plan continues maybe results can alter medical community's lack of enthusiasm. Today though illustrates more strongly than ever how little interest in the technology
Maybe the trial will still have awesome stats, beat $100 million down the line for revenue, but will critique of management ever impress me. NO. Management was right, voters were wrong, still a problem company, tra la la la
That's the problem to help enrollment. My guess is this will never reach $100 million revenue and always slipping schedules make guess on when approval difficult. Any approval generates excitement, but if Europe continues to creep along, excitement level might not get me out of the chair
Mindboggling press release is out on phase 3 changes. The company is being forced to reduce the quality of the trial due to enrollment failure. Maybe a condition to get the giant offering done. If the company wins on offering, the beat goes on but I don't see this technology ever achieving heights
You figured it would be at 2 cents by now. Despite Bond's protests on micro financing regularity, whether one likes the company or not .. Count on spending. May the Goddess win, she will earn every penny if
Too much trouble to comprehend these micro deals. I am going to assume if the big deal grosses $27 million or more, micro deals are just useful gnats along the way. Or please somebody spoon feed me what I should worry about
Oops, I forget the 4th buyout, for this least likely now of 4 events but possible, probably price quite low, BUT variation would be partnership, always my favorite if so lucky but would come like an event where everybody has fled,given up so unlucky in love would fit
Interesting contradiction the sudden free use of the "B" word and the general absence of such word when lamenting the vote override last year.
So 3 choices coming up
a) bankruptcy b) business as usual with the mid 2018 variation or
c) Brilliant job by the Goddess
One of the greatest quotes "rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated", although Mark Twain has been gone awhile
I have made clear that I don't trust this rights offering will be a winner. Simpson is a failure on financing historically. I am not super harsh about it, but the vulnerability is apparent to everybody.
Don't put words into my mouth, that I did not say. Bond's memory though of my 2018 moves is too favorable. My best moment was selling out when reverse split was announced, and additionally I have telegraphed many times when empty of shares or buying or selling.
I did say it is good management if the rights offering works out, that part is true, grade A true. I also consider it fine any swing for the fences, ie big money raise attempts. I stand by though up to 10 percent chance of bankruptcy in 2018
Nobody has been more clear on opinion of definition of successful rights offering than I, just the facts
The sidelines is fine, 394 shares total ownership by me is sidelines.
I believe the ratio of $50 million to today's cash volume is an astounding 10,000 to 1, so this might or might not represent giant sleeping dogs. 500 to 1 ratio, desperation or savvy, ie good management, sidelines are comfortable, come on in
Management filing of July was the timely counter to that, but was not believed. The Goddess wins the warning competition
The message boards are nothing like last summer. Retail posters embraced and messaged targets such as $500 m market cap by August 2017 and retail posters touted buyout competing bids of the nature of $200 million to $1 billion. Lately all boards have come close to ghost town periods. Even if a justice crusade made sense, you are mostly a day late and a $1 short
Well, on point if that is how you see it, why risk money on rights offering? I am probably not putting a single penny but for my own reasons.
I trust management more than investors here by a significant margin, but I weigh risk vs. reward. I want to take a risk, just not any risk though
Multiple reverse splits at 4 should make one leery. 45,000 fold increase in share count in a little more than 12 months is worse.
For the moment my sentiment is hard sell for those with significant positions. I respect the capacity for a game changer.
I dispute scam. As for recognition there were many reasons to avoid particularly after July filing. This would have been based just on history between Sep 2013 and July 2017.
My biggest warning would be avoid advice from people that ignore what filings say or belittle the content when informational in nature.
As for ongoing speculations, that is fine. Reverse split, no reason for any time soon, more reason to fear bankruptcy.
If I had to bet today, whether a terrible place to be or not, I would bet there will never be another reverse split for this company.
Don't accept. I believe it was already known many of the benefits of chemosat gen 2. You would make a better case that at some point an announced salary reduction, would have had more teeth, but not to be expected or a guarantee of changing the course of history.
I strongly suspect as well the author had no timely advice on best course for investors. I said sell so many times ….
It was a long blog, bet it does not mention that the company gave 20 days notification to the reverse split. That makes the massive beating after the reverse split, an undeniable choice. That leaves part 2: the claim the company could have press released to avoid such a terrible beating, my rebuttal and say what??
They delayed I believe before, so not a joke. I have yet to see any argument to persuade me that anything is serious compared to financing. I will take the high spending and slow enrollment, if $27 million gross or more
Money says everything, so the rights offering is ??? First test of worry, holding $1.75 until rights is complete
If Delcath gets FDA approval for OM, it would still be doubtful to reach $100M revenue ever
My guess is you are high, my guess is $7 million in the hole. That means $27 million gross, would be equivalent of clean balance sheet at start of September with $18 million in the bank after expenses of offering being $2 million to that point. Then the stopgap would be I hope like warrants being regularly exercised at $1.75.
The plus side is 3 more months since end of May in which hopefully some limping progress on enrollment. The secondary plus side which should be seen is if clinically nearing the final stretch, this tips the balance to Delcath can be on the winning side of financing comparatively. Think about convertible increased shares 45,000 fold while this financing increased 30 fold or so, next time around ratio will be tiny
All for nothing and maybe even bankruptcy though, if offering is a midget
As I have stated for those interested in rights, take your time about committing. I guess in the mean time somebody could make short term profits but I am likely sidelining until end of August when spectrum from doom to rainbow. If rainbow, enrollment talk is out of place until time reveals. If enrollment is perceived too deep a problem, big boys likely will not commit
If big money is really lurking for rights offering, would they support a price above $1.75 if need be? One of the risks to this long drawn affair until the mythical completion
You got to be kidding as far and away through this August is the big story.
Being an excessively dead board now, more than ever there must be big boys that like the story for offering. Buy with both hands if offering is successful, my opinion
As I recall to avoid a big surge in shares, delcath needs to pay significantly in cash. If the rights offering generates plenty of cash, I don't think there is a significant issue financially. $27 million gross from rights offering by end of August bullish. Is there any reason though for any cash to be thrown into the rights pot until past mid August to reduce risk a little?
Nothing is a problem unless premature commitment, on with my grand 394 shares
Imo, may some deity help us if little retail is needed for support. Simpson had better have some solid accredited types that like the story
For all the ugly smell, one fact is delcath has never in a long history had bankruptcy, but got as far as FDA hearing for approval once.
Hard to say but I put chance of bankruptcy in 2018 at no more than 10 percent, as my current only guess
Simpson is not interested in false hope unless it generates real money imo. I saw as rather harsh and truthful when said $20 million needed for 2018. I am not a lover of $1.75 idea, but if works then it smells good.
Could be the company sucks in a paltry medium figure of $8 million which in a way would be pretty good, if the average contribution is $20,000 bucks.
It makes no sense to push at this time "I don't trust" and commit money to the area where there is the least reason for trust, ability to make good financing deals.
My logic is clear if the company raises $25 million or more by end of August at the low price of $1.75, considering everything my grade on performance on the event will be (A minus). I don't trust that being, but I like the company is swinging for the fences, so either Simpson is going to look more like a jokester or a deity
Nobody would like to see you proven wrong more than I. Delcath team, help us out
So, what are you going to do? If you are exercising some rights, convince me to do so. I am open minded, I give credit to the plan but the last time I approved of delcath on financing was when there was an ATM process at a higher market cap years ago, but it was little used, a likely mistake.