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Where is ImpactTrader??? haven't heard from him... you out there... give us a holler.
At one time he posted how much stock he held... anyone recall so I don't have to dig it up???
good post cysonic!!!
I have never heard of that terminology.... so have no idea what he means by "plug and play"
Check from PAR will be coming in 1st quarter of this year
You know... the small nature of IPCI allows for gross manipulation... however that same small nature will be why this company will eventually soar... and this conference may be where it will catch the right person's eye.
400 investors looking for disruptive technology - the very same thing I look for - and there are bound to be some there that will recognize that about IPCI.
I have accumulated 1/4 million shares... but that is only limited by the funds available to me.
If I could... I would continue to accumulate into the millions of shares... in particular at these absurd low prices.
It's only a matter of time until IPCI catches the eye of an investor of my nature... but with DEEPER POCKETS.
I still believe there will be days... and it won't be long now... where each and every fund or deep pocket investor will raise the share price by a dollar in a single day... and it will be common occurrence... a day when someone like sprot's pitiful 10K shares flip will be absorbed into a black hole never to be seen again.
20K shares today makes you a millionaire in 3 to 5 years... or sooner!!!
Safety is a Phase 1 issue - if the dye was a safety issue it would have been purged then.
Can we just ignore the ramblings rather than encourage them???
There seems to be an endless supply of stock at $2.50... luckily there also seems to be an endless appetite for it.
They just have to stick with their own advertised strategy
Our drug delivery technology licensing program is particularly well suited to the requirements of owners of new chemical entities (NCE's) whose short half lives make multiple dosing per day necessary. Our proprietary technologies offer the means to add new dimensions to these products by enabling once a day delivery
Any other ANDA that gets approved can go immediately to market since there won't be any 180 day exclusivity to contend with.
We may even have another drug earning cash before Seroquel XR does.
IPCI said:
Future focus is 505(b)2 candidates, but they may still file the odd ANDA if the market potential is good.
I expect down the road when IPCI is flush with money... they will have a subdivision totally dedicated to developing Xtended Release drugs of any drug going off patent... especially if it's a 2x or 3x daily LARGE MARKET drug.
They have 5 drug delivery platforms - I would like to see some out-of-the-box thinking in developing or improving some drugs or over the counter stuff - like 1X a day Aleve competitor or 1X a day Advil competitor.
I believe Coreg was filed over a year ago but there were some issues with the filing and it was kicked back.
http://www.intellipharmaceutics.com/pipeline.cfm
Ranexa added to the pipeline - ANDA filed December 2016 - it'll be a couple of years but everything helps now that these approvals are starting to come in.
looking at the bid / ask trying to understand "what's going on", is like looking over a lake and asking "where are the muskies".
Very very strange trading today - for hours 4 different MM all with 6,200 shares at 2.53 ask - now 4 MM all with 5,900 shares at ask... and I have no idea what is going on - but something strange is going on
He's not Tony Pro - although he may be Tony Pro's son - Has the flavor of Tony Pro but Impact is native Tony was foreign.
Tony once said he was using his son's computer... so he has a son... and both talk of big money.
What ever happened to Impact Trader ???
You there???
I keep saying the huge unknown is the % of cost plus
According to Symphony Health Solution, sales in the U.S. for 12 month ended August 2015 for brand Seroquel XR were approx.
US$1.2BN. We are assuming market size would decrease by 35% to US$780M per year after its genericization. We estimate IPCI’s generic Seroquel XR would take max. 9% of the market and after that the market share would drop by 20% on yearly basis. We are assuming a gross margin of 80% and that IPCI and Mallinckrodt would evenly split the gross profit. Our estimates of IPCI’s share from its generic Seroquel XR sales in the U.S. from 2017 to 2020 are US$13.5M, US$21.2M, US$17.0M, and US$13.6M, respectively.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128642843
Love your projections but 20% royalty on a generic drug ..... I don't think is reasonable to use.
Bottomline generic royalties are much lower. You said yourself you came up with 10% royalty on focalin during the exclusivity period and lower thereafter. So I'm not certain how you are starting at 20%. The high end royalties are only in play when there is licensing of groundbreaking IP involved. In the generic space of the ANDA candidates, there is no groundbreaking differentiator for IPCI IMO.
Amigo Mike
According to Symphony Health Solution, sales in the U.S. for 12 month ended August 2015 for brand Seroquel XR were approx.
US$1.2BN. We are assuming market size would decrease by 35% to US$780M per year after its genericization. We estimate IPCI’s
generic Seroquel XR would take max. 9% of the market and after that the market share would drop by 20% on yearly basis. We are
assuming a gross margin of 80% and that IPCI and Mallinckrodt would evenly split the gross profit. Our estimates of IPCI’s share
from its generic Seroquel XR sales in the U.S. from 2017 to 2020 are US$13.5M, US$21.2M, US$17.0M, and US$13.6M, respectively.
My Note: Evenly splitting the gross profit where the gross margin is 80% is equal to 40% Pure Profit Royalties.
Hopefully numbers can dig that up... or preferably... dig nothing up!!!
It also just dawned on me that the contract... I believe... is written up so that IPCI gets the higher % royalty (presumed 10%) as long as PAR/IPCI have the only generic on the market, and NOT just for the 180 days exclusivity... It's dependent on whether or not they have the market to themselves... I think.
This could be meaningful.
We expect sales of the 25 and 35 mg strength to significantly improve our revenues in 2017.
Teva launched its own 5, 10, 20 and 40 mg strengths of generic Focalin XR® capsules on November 11, 2014, February 2, 2015, June 22, 2015 and November 19, 2013 respectively
IT'S INEVITABLE ! ! !
The following assertions do not include Focalin XR because it does not fit the pattern of the other drugs, nor does it include Coreg because it has not yet been submitted, nor Ranexa that we do not know enough about... yet.
The aggregate market for the other 7 XR generics in the IPCI pipeline is $5.657 BILLION. (I scaled down Seroquel XR from $1.2 billion to $760 million market which is the course Focalin took when it went generic)
Some of those generics have MANY distributors... for instance Glucophage has 18, but most others have only around 6.
What I'm using is a mere 5% penetration, which should feel low enough for everyone to accept, and a 20% royalty payment, which I think is well below what they will probably get because the FDA approval was totally self-funded, with the exception of Focalin which was funded by PAR... and this is what I come up with.
$5.657 Billion market X 5% penetration = $280 million market share for IPCI and partner x 20% IPCI royalties = $56 million to IPCI divided by 30 million shares = $1.86 X 12pe = $22.32 per share on generics alone!!!!
Now I've used the $1.86 as earnings rather than revenue because the cost of goods and operations will be covered by the PLUS in the cost PLUS... and of course there will be money spent on research and such but that of course goes to add additional value to the company's speculative value.
The above figures should be acceptable to even the most skeptic here... as for me... I believe penetration could be as high as 10%, and royalty payments are at least 30% or possibly 40%, and p/e ratio are usually as high as 20% for a growth company... which could equate to as high as:
$5.657 Billion market X 10% penetration = $566 million market share for IPCI and partner x 40% IPCI royalties = $226 million to IPCI divided by 30 million shares = $7.54 X 20pe = $150.80 per share on generics alone!!!!
No... I don't believe the second set of numbers because nothing that good could possibly ever happen to me... LOL... but I do believe it will be higher than the first set of figures.
They will build it... you should come!!!
20K shares today makes you millionaire in 3 to 5 years ! ! ! or less ! ! !
Royalties are paid quarterly 30 days after end of quarter, therefore:
Assuming MNK begins marketing Seroquel XR on May 1st, and assuming MNK's has a traditional Dec 31 Fiscal year... then the May and June sales will be paid 30 days after June 30th which is July 30th... and will appear on IPCI's 3rd quarter earnings ending August 31.
Also assuming PAR begins marketing the complete line of doses for Focalin by April 1st... then a full quarter of Focalin royalties will also appear on IPCI's 3rd quarter ending August 31.
I would not be surprised to see IPCI cash positive on 3rd quarter earnings ending August 31th... on generics alone.
Let's try and get an idea as to what we can expect from Focalin royalties on 25mg and 35mg for the 6 months exclusivity period.
We know that those 2 doses account for $80 million yearly... and we know that the Focalin market as a whole dropped to $760 million from $1.2 Billion or 63.33%... so we can assume the $80 million will drop to ~ $51 million once generics hit the market.
we also know that PAR captured 43% of the market for previous exclusivity on the 15mg and 30 mg... so we can safely assume the same will happen again, so 43% of $51 million = ~ $22 million which we can expect PAR to rake in for the year or $5.5 million per quarter... possibly even more for the first 2 quarters.
From previous napkin figuring and assumptions, I once deducted that IPCI appears to get either 2.5% or 5% royalties on a continuous basis... BUT gets 10% royalties during the 180 days exclusivity period... therefore IPCI should be getting $550,000 per quarter for the next 2 quarters on the 25mg and 35mg + add to that the $560,000 it now gets for the 15mg and 30mg and IPCI's royalties should be over $1.1 million for each of the 2nd and 3rd quarter.
IPCI has a 20 day window from the time of the FDA acceptance of the Rexista filing in which it needs to inform Perdue of their Paragraph 4 challenge on OxyContin ... so from ~ February 2nd when IPCI received acceptance it takes us to ~ February 22nd.
From there, Perdue has 45 days to respond... which takes us to ~ April 8th as the LATEST we should know if there is a law suit.
Of course... IPCI might have sent out the notice to Perdue on February 2nd which would put us at March 20th for Perdue to respond... and additionally, Perdue does not necessarily need to wait 45 days, and... IPCI might have become aware of the acceptance even before Feb 2nd.
What we know as fact however... is that we will know for sure by April 8th if there is a law suit.
Whether or not Perdue sues would be a consideration in the partnership, and I believe that may be a holdback in the contract... however I still get the feeling that they plan on closing the Odidi's debenture which becomes due April 1st, which means they would expect a sum of money before that... which perhaps means they expect to partner before April 1st... which makes the time period of March 20th to April 1st very interesting.
All the above is strictly a gut feeling, and not based on any facts.
Sep 15, 2011 - Intellipharmaceutics' partnership with Par Pharmaceuticalgoes back several years. ..... with Paragraph IV certification for aranolazine generic version of Ranexa (ranolazine) extended-release
Effective December 1, 2016, the maturity date for the Debenture in respect of the $1,500,000 loan to the Company by Drs. Isa and Amina Odidi was extended to April 1, 2017 and a principal repayment of $150,000 was made at the time of the extension. The Company currently expects to repay the current net amount of $1,350,000 on or about April 1, 2017, if the Company then has cash available
AngeloFoca, Glucophage_XR not partnered with Mallinckrodt
No expense to IPCI eh ? Pure profit ? Given IPCI is expected to be the manufacturer ...... there is a COST to manufacture. People, equipment, rent, etc ....... 'tis not pure profit to the bottomline. And of course there will be taxes on any profits depending on loss carryforwards.
Added 14,500 the last 2 days.
In 25 years of investing in emerging biotechs... I have never seen a better risk/reward ratio.
Huge potential, with a remarkable safety net... the kind of corporation that we will someday say "remember when you could have bought it for under $3.00".
blame it on the prior president and his administrations
but it's not a sure bet yet, and I'm currently only holding a small position long
I mention Glucophage because it is HUGE... the $1.2 BILLION market reflects sales of all the generics... and IF/WHEN we get approval it can immediately hit the market with Mallinckrodt.
Focalin XR and Seroquel XR received approval on time - that is - within the timeframe of patent expiration that would allow generics to go to market.
Pristiq generics are on the market and have 6 generic manufacturers supplying them - which is not many and FDA may see some benefit to competition by approving further manufacturers.
However... the FDA's primary objective is to lower drug prices by providing competition, and all others have SEVERAL manufacturers already supplying generics, and I do not believe FDA is in a hurry regarding other mfg's approvals since it would be inconsequential to the drug's price... for instance Glucophage XR has, I believe, 18 generics on the market... so there will be no benefit in lowering prices by approving any more.
I mention Glucophage because it is HUGE... the $1.2 BILLION market reflects sales of all the generics... and IF/WHEN we get approval it can immediately hit the market with Mallinckrodt.
A 5% slice of $1.2 billion = $60 million of which I believe IPCI will get approximately 50% or $30 million all going to the bottom line.
Oh happy days will be here then... da da, da da, da da da da!!!
There are only 7,400 shares affected by February options, so that is a total non-event.
There was however, pretty decent activity in the July $5.00 IPCI options today - I couldn't help myself and jumped in for 61 of them... hopefully get the other 39 tomorrow.
I assume those figures update every 3 months??? - so we know that OS has increased by 160K shares but that is within a 90 day period???
It's not something we can get updates every 2 weeks like shares short???
Since 16/12/2016 outstanding shares have risen by 160,000
and apparently there's an exclusivity label
Really would love to be part of the 10$ Vegas party. I'll try my best
Fabius, are you planning/hoping on making the IPCI $10.00 Las Vegas party???
Where are you from??? Europe??? Italy???
he does have a way to find stuff