The Zone: Boomslang Bit.

There are various snake venoms and effects. Get bit by a viper and the pain is immediate with localized hemotoxic venom swelling causing the bite site skin to swell, turn black, and split open. Your much more likely to lose a hand or foot than your life.

Other snakes, the cobras and mambas use a fast acting neurotoxic resulting in a quick death by respiratory paralysis. After 45 minutes the victim is unconscious, becoming dizzy in a matter of moments--'kiss of death' is what's called ending up dead four hours later.

Be it viper or cobra/mamba once you are bitten you know your in serious trouble, but not so with the even more deadly boomslang.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/science-sushi/2015/11/02/what-it-feels-like-to-die-of-a-boomslang-bite/#.V5k4CMrdXX5

...watch the amazing vid of a scientist recording his symptoms as the boomslang venom slowly hemorrhaged his life away. At no time did he express fear his life was ending, or sought medical attention.

Seems that Hungary doesn't want to stick its hand in the cage and play with the innocent looking boomie like most of Europe.

http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2016/07/192489/migrants-poison-terror-risk-claims-hungarian-prime-minister/

UUP Lights Up the Global Markets.

...yep, as UUP falls the risk currencies of FXE/GLD/SLV shine bright along with the debt and equity markets. But does this day really matter? Nope, not at all indicators are still pointing south to penguin land.

Should'a Kept Sailing -- LOL.

So Why did the dollar get hammered after posting a strong gain minutes after the announcement.

#1 The announcement didn't say anything that wasn't expected.

#2 Esther George didn't pick up another dissenter.

#3 Market doesn't think Yellen will raise rates in Sept. and hurt Killary's chances.

...so it's back to business as usual with risk on.

Turns out the Island Isn't Uninhabited After All

After the crew finished unloading the hole (five minutes after the opening bell) a friendly native happened by and asked our destination.

When I told him, he looked over the cargo and started to laugh.

"What's so funny?" I asked.

"You're going to sell Bermuda shorts (EEM, EWS, CEW, EMLC, IWM, SPY, VT) to the Penguins, don't you know it's winter down there at minus 150 wind chill? Now a couple of things your carrying they need (TLT, LTPZ, and UUP) but most of this stuff their not going to need till its their summer."

"What would you suggest?" I asked.

"Give me a couple of days to put together a list, have fun in the sun, and surf along with the island girls. I'm sure the crew will enjoy the lay over."

"Sure." After I agreed, I'd never seen the crew happier!

Beautiful to Watch and...

with only two whip strikes. I really think that should be the limit with any horse with a jock disqualification for three or more.

Listening to the patter of hoofs should be the only thing one hears at track side, not the physical abuse of animals. If the horse wants to run he'll run, if he's hurt the last thing he needs is some human beating the shit out of him to go faster.

I Agree Completely...All GA Cargo Offloaded!

...yep, found a nice deserted island off the coast of Belize and I've unloaded all the GA's holes except of course UUP.

As it stands going into the decision the Ames is 50% cash / 50% UUP with not a trace of equities/debt/foreign currencies in her holes.

My thinking is the Fed surprised this year being loose, they may well surprise tight. Sort of balance the thing out. Anyway, if the Fed statement is beguine I'll start loading up the holes again before the close.

Crew isn't happy having to do all the work, but I tell them it beats swimming.

Another Indicator Has Growth Turning Toxic.

...as it reads growth is now toxic with inflation moving in the same direction.

At the close I'll sell off XIV and wait and see what happens tomorrow.

After Coming Back from VanChina, All I can say...

was it was rather ridiculous.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-25/chinese-national-center-massive-money-laundering-operation-tied-over-500mm-real-esta

Three languages greet you at the Vancouver Airport: English, French and Chinese. I think you could easily drop the French!

Hoards, and I mean hoards, of Chinese in groups of fifty or more roam the city with more than a few groups having an average age of twelve.

Running Roughly 20/80 On-Off Into Fed Meeting.

...sold of EEM/EWS and reduced CEW down to 1/4 share. Anything foreign and not dollar backed is suspect.

For the day down .2% with QGMIX +.1%

Sold off EEM and EWS at the Open.

...no crosses occurred, simply speculation. If the Fed announcement on Wed. is not dollar friendly I'll buy them both back.

UK to Get Dose of Tough Love.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/24/eu-britain-must-suffer-for-brexit

...teaching the UK a lesson will come at the cost of global growth.

Both GA and QGMIX 67% in USD.

https://ycharts.com/mutual_funds/M:QGMIX

...with QGMIX heavy in bonds and GA in stocks making up the balance.

If a meltdown were to happen tomorrow QGMIX would outperform GA.

FOMC Meeting Likely USD Friendly.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-gain-confidence-they-can-raise-rates-this-year-1468922401

...unless the markets fall apart in the next couple of days.

If the FOMC does in fact turn out to be dollar friendly, I see the real possibility of the black hole sucking in more of the worlds assets...quickly!

Severe Drought Expanding in Dixie.

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2016/jul/23/regifarmers-struggle-drought-deepens/377423/

...nothing is more depressing to a farmer than to watch the slow death of his crops by drought. Ninety-five percent of them have a strong faith which keeps them from blowing their brains out (along with government crop insurance and a host of other subsidies).

'Nothing' Continues to Fall

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/TabularStatistics.aspx

D1 now showing up in southern Iowa/northern Missouri, some of the best farm land in the nation.

Heck of a Coincidence.

Just looked at a picture of the GA in full sail with 23 separate sails hooked up to her five masts.

Well my global market GA also has a 23 asset maximum at any one time. Ten however are now toxic and stored in the hole as UUP.

GA Still Backing the Long UST Bonds.

...with long interest rates starting to tick up you might ask wouldn't be better if the Ames switched from long duration TLT/LTPZ to shorter IEF/TIP?

Well no.

My interest indicator is pointing exactly in the opposite direction (rates headed down) telling me stay with the long bonds. This is another confirmation that economic winter is approaching.

Pain of Brexit Just Starting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-22/brexit-vote-wreaks-havoc-on-u-k-economy-flash-estimates-show

...ever stub your toe hard, and know your going to feel pain, but for a split second feel no pain. Welcome to Brexit.

Pain, she is a coming.

So Where In the Heck are we Sailing?

...mention has been made to London, Lisbon, Cape Town and Sydney, so where in the heck are we going.

None of the above.

We're headed to Antarctica, and global deflationary demand collapse debt liquidation depression...aka economic winter.

Right now I'm carrying Bermuda shorts for the penguins in the equity hole of the GA, but when the time is right I'll pitch these overboard for parkas (global index shorts and pos vol)...but not until the market tells me to do so.

Match Race.....Week #29

...moving to a match race inside a field.

GA down -.01% for the week and up 4.94% YTD.

QGMIX .00%% and -1.77% YTD, Alternative Global Macro Funds (AGMF) 4.40% YTD.

I think I found a kindred spirit in QGMIX. The performance of QGMIX has been matching mine almost pip for pip over the last couple of months...much more so that ASAIX which is more volatile.

Also the category QGMIX is doing much better and out performing the category ASAIX falls under.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/QGMIX

So I'm going to match racing QGMIX and the category Alternative Global Macro Funds, and forget about ASAIX.

FXA Likely Reduced to QS on Tuesday...

and FXY to QS on Wednesday.

...UUP taking down all the currencies.

There are Black Holes and THE Ultimate Black Hole.

The universe is comprised of countless thousands of galaxies. We of course reside in the Milky Way with a black hole at it's center.

The black hole at the center of the MW is but a pimple on a basketball to the ultimate black hole at the center of the universe which all the galaxies revolve around.

Matter is being sucked into to all the smaller BH and in turn sucked into the ultimate black hole which will one day contain all the matter in the universe and then explode again in another big bang.

This cycle no doubt has been repeated countless thousands of times with time itself stopping and then restarting at the point of singularity.

So what does this have to do with the black holes of UUP and cash. Well right now the world is collapsing into UUP (a black hole) but if things really get bad UUP could collapse into cash the ultimate black hole, which would mean the end of the global financial universe.

Remember the old motto: In a depression cash is king.

RJA Likely to Turn Toxic on Tuesday.

...picked up a quarter share knowing this was very likely to happen. Still if a line is positive (even though declining) it's still worth a bet (keep).

$BDI Close to MACD Roll Over

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BDI&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t19881950202&r=1469196356398

Interesting Development in IWM and SPY.

...both are a knick away from moving in opposite directions telling me the market is at a major inflection point!

IWM is a pip away from being lowered from a FS to HS, while SPY is a pip away from being raised from a HS to FS.

One of these is obviously wrong, stay tuned to fine out which one.

SCS Turned Toxic July 18th, 2016.

Back in 2007 it turned toxic November 20th and didn't flash the all clear until May 15th, 2009.

...nice indicator.

50% UUP / 17% MM / 33% Other.

The other mix is top heavy with equity indexes.

FS: EWS, EEM, IWM, HS: SPY, VT.

Very light on currencies.

HS: CEW, FXY, FXA.

Light on bonds/PM/commodities.

HS: TLT, LTPZ, EMLC, GCC. QS RJA

In the global collapse scenario being played out in the cargo holes of the GA, currencies collapse first, commodities/PM/bonds second, with equities then left with a Wiley Coyote moment.

Current reading is 3 FS/ 9 HS/ 10 Toxic = 6 + 9 - 20 = -5 with the QS not considered.

Once (if) the GA reaches -22, 100% of her cargo will be UUP/MM.

At some point UUP/MM could well be used to short equities and the long bond.

Interesting, Sahara Desert Most Recognizable Feature.

...due to lack of clouds. Scientists are theorizing that the equator cloud belt is being pushed more towards the poles as a result of global warming.

Kuroda Made HM Comment in Mid-June.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKCN10101T

...hopefully Ben converted him to the religion of Helicopterism last week.

Kuroda...What He Should Have said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-helicopter-boj-idUSL4N1A73BI

...this guy keeps shooting himself in the foot.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=HEWJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1469119697833

...HEWJ off 2% today and 20% for the year.

Rather than saying HM is not needed today and NOT POSSIBLE, what the fool should have said is: HM is not needed today, but maybe in the future...anything can 'maybe happen in the future'.

Nice I have a HS FXY to offset some of the damage.

Kuroda Sez No to Helicopter Money

...the day after I throw the PM's overboard with gold and silver following up the yen. Oh well can't look back, besides the PMs are still toxic.

Picked up a 1/4 share of RJA ag commodity index. I moved TBF down among the short equities which are all toxic as well.

In hole #2 the new possible manifest reads: LTPZ, TLT, SLV, GLD, EMLC, GCC, and JRA. A nice mix of three bonds, two PM, and two commodity funds.

Interesting in that EEM and EWS are FS...

with only IWA (R2000) the other FS equity.

Double Rations of Rum for the Crew Tonight.

Being a five masted schooner, the GA needs room to maneuver. What the deck hands did today was nothing short of spectacular, throwing off bar after bar of PM, sending them down to rest along side whale dung in Davy Jones Locker. The GA will never carry a toxic asset and the PMs turned into one today. Two full shares into the briny abyss, with never a second thought--toxic after all is toxic.

As long a FXB outperforms FXA the bars can stay submerged.

PS: The stuff is heavy.

Threw All the PM's Overboard...

as the pound strengthened and the yen slipped by a like amount.

As mentioned yesterday gold was setting up for a sell today and I pitched silver along for the ride, given that gold usually leads silver.

Interesting how the currency hole is bare except for HS of FXA and FXY...leaving 12 UUP for UUP.

Today I pitched 5 half shares in the PM/Bond hold disposing of FS silver, and gold along with a half share of LTPZ. This whittled hole #2 down to a FS in EMLC (which will be cut to a HS at the open), a HS in TLT, and HS in LTPZ, and HS in GCC.

Tomorrow after selling EMLC the Commodity/PM/Bond hole will have only 4 HS...leaving 10 HS for UUP.

The equity hold is a different story, with FS in IWA, EWS, and EEM, along with HS in SPY and VT...leaving 6 HS for UUP.

The equity hole could fill up even more if the market advances over the next couple of days.

After a hectic day of trading I can relax only being off .10%

How Bad (if at all) Will Brexit Hurt UK.

This is the $64,000 question. If the answer is bad, then TLT and the PM's will start moving up again.

If not much, then the equity rally continues.

It's all about rotation.

Yesterday the 'bad' held an edge over the 'no so bad', but it all turned around at 3:00 am with the UK employment report showing a strengthening economy.

Equity Loving FXB Beating Inflation Loving FXA

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FXB%3AFXA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=t90902053092&r=1469028636055

Remember the horrible beat down the PM's took in April of 2013...well look at the chart for the similarity today!

Nope, to the Contrary...

USD strength is deflationary, so long as my index declines (from 10 to 9) I'm moving money out of risk assets and into UUP. Good chance tomorrow I'll cut back EMLC from FS to HS.

My thinking is ATACX is late to the game, and will get whipped. Time will tell.

Cat +2.3% vs. GA +3.8% First Half Year.

https://www.crescat.net/products-performance/global-macro-hedge-fund/

...hedges so far this year are finding it slow going. Barclay long/short hedge measurement is down 1.6% for the first half.

http://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/ghs/Equity_Long_Short_Index.html

No One Swings Like ATACX

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/ATACX

...one day they're 100% in TLT, the next 100% in EEM!

Happy I'm Not Teaching Econ in Ankara!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/turkey-jails-generals-as-post-coup-purge-widens/2016/07/19/db076c84-4d1f-11e6-bf27-405106836f96_story.html

...so how in the world is the Zone going to rationalize having a strong-man Turkey seeking membership. If you don't like the Zone (and I don't) they you can't love the Euro, and by default must love the USD (Trump and all).