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The big question now is what big cushy job will he end up with in May? Where will he do his dirty work from? At a big pay raise of course. What would be interesting (and telling) is if he actually changes sides in his new gig. Wishful thinking I know.
Cmdr, I like to think of it as this...
ARCA: The Killer Whale!....when atop the bid side
and
ARCA: The Whale Killer!....when atop the ask side
A&M VALUATION SERVICES, LLC LIQUIDATION ANALYSIS OF FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC PREPARED FOR GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS
A&M VALUATION SERVICES, LLC is a highly respected firm and in case you didn't know, GSO manages approximately $65 billion of assets and operates as the credit-focused subsidiary of The Blackstone Group. Everyone may want to keep a close eye on Blackstone as a potential player in FnF's future, be it through a stock play or taking a shot at purchasing parts of them, similar to Berkowitz's attempt.
This document was provided to the Bipartisan Policy Center Forum on the Implications of GSE Reform for the Federal Budget and National Debt that took place today.
Bipartisan Policy Center Forum on the Implications of GSE Reform
Judge Margaret M. Sweeney
Margaret M. Sweeney
Chambers Phone: (202) 357-6644
Federal Reserve News Conference
March 19, 2014
C-SPAN 2:30pm
Chairman Janet Yellen holds a quarterly news conference following the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to announce decisions regarding certain monetary policies to stimulate the economy.
Great article by Dan Freed. I know he is a supporter of FnF/us. Good to see the list of politicians he points out that are somewhat on our side. I just hope there are enough of them when/if it comes to a vote, but hopefully it never gets there!
more IMFnews...
Friday, Mar 14, 2014
What We're Hearing: Memo to Mel Watt: There?s Thing Called the CSP / The GSE Bill?s ?Bait and Switch?
By Paul Muolo
pmuolo@imfpubs.com
In case you missed the scoop on IMFnews Thursday, Pete Carroll is departing as assistant director for mortgage markets at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency that is causing heartburn for mortgage bankers everywhere. Why is this a big deal? When Ed DeMarco still headed the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Carroll was apparently a shoo-in to head the common securitization platform, the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac MBS joint venture. But from what we understand, Carroll grew tired of sitting around and waiting for new FHFA director Mel Watt to pull the lever. And now Carroll is off to Wells Fargo to help the nation?s largest lender/servicer shape housing finance policy. The CSP, by the way, has been talked about as being a ?surviving asset? of the GSEs, something that the private sector can use as well, which begs the question: Will it get the same attention under Watt? Watt, of course, has yet to make any public speeches, much less talk about the CSP. The industry is waiting?
Former banker Dave Fiderer put the new Johnson-Crapo GSE Senate bill nicely in perspective this week when he noted that the legislation (okay, it?s not quite out yet) is really a ?bait and switch,? something designed to ?demolish the most successful home loan entities so that the only alternative is to use the new government-mandated system that benefits the big banks?...
MB, trying to make sense of this situation is of great interest to me as well and I tend to agree with most all of your other posts. While Obit is right, in that we don't really know what Ackman did or didn't do during this drop, I tend to believe he may not have done much at all. If anything, I feel he could've increased his position at the bottom. Again, I don't know if doing so creates any undesirable situation for him by having a larger than 10% position...i.e., filings and what not. I will say, I find it interesting that he is just under 10% in his position.
Stating your guess that he could have sold 35m shares at around $6, actually, was not possible. I don't even think 35m total shares ever traded above $6 before the 1pm drop. I believe, roughly, 75-80m total shares traded during the 1-2:30pm drop where the price went from a little over $6 to around $3.25. More than 50% of the 75M+ shares traded during that period did so under $4.10 and over 75% of the 75M+ traded under $4.75. Again, I'm not saying it's not possible that Ackman wasn't in some way involved in the this, but looking at the numbers, I'm not sure it would have been to the scale that you might be thinking/guessing.
I have studied Ackman quite a bit, and I feel he may be sticking to his guns on his long position. I also believe there are several reasons he chose not to comment on the drop. First, I don't think it's as big of a deal to him as it is many here. He has said many times, he expects there to be many ST ups and downs in his LT bets and they usually don't phase him. Second, while he can be outspoken at times, I find him to be more reserved and less confrontational than most think he is. Last, Herbalife was about to or had received a huge bomb around the same time and I don't think he was ready to make himself available to any questioning about anything, especially that!
Again, just speculation that I'm willing to put out there...could be 100% right/wrong or somewhere in between.
OT...Herbalife HLF shares have been halted....hmmmmm? Wonder how it will help/hurt our largest common holder in Bill Ackman?
more IMFnews......3/12/14
ONE LAST NOTE ON GSE REFORM: In a new research note, Compass Point Research & Trading asks this very pertinent question: Will GSE reform become law in 2014? The firm?s answer: ?No.? Its reasoning is simple: ?We continue to believe that Congressman [Jeb] Hensarling, R-TX, is unlikely to alter the House GSE reform proposal known as the PATH Act. House GOP leadership, much like their Senate counterparts, is likely to avoid the issues of housing reform??.
THERE YOU GO....Nader has 50K shares in each FnF! Long term shares, before 2008! At what price did he buy them? $50 times 100K = $5 million! That's a big loss. Just guessing of course.
Expecting big volume today. As well as Wed. & Thurs.
White House projects Fannie, Freddie could leave taxpayers with $179 billion profit by 2024
OMB Projects Bigger Returns on Fannie and Freddie
By Nick Timiraos
Fannie Mae headquarters is seen in Washington in this file photo from Nov. 7, 2013. (REUTERS/Gary Cameron/Files) —Reuters
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would return nearly twice the amount of money they received from the U.S. Treasury if the current bailout arrangement isn’t changed over the next decade, according to the White House budget office.
By the end of March, the two mortgage-finance companies that were seized by the U.S. in 2008 will have returned $202.9 billion in dividend payments, after receiving $187.5 billion in federal support between 2008 and 2011. The budget projections released Monday by the White House Office of Management and Budget show that the companies could return an additional $163.8 billion through the 2024 fiscal year if the bailout arrangement remains in place.
By that tally, Fannie and Freddie would return $179.2 billion more to taxpayers than they were required to borrow. Last year, the budget showed that taxpayers faced a net gain of $51 billion through 2023.
Even though both companies will have soon sent more in dividends to the Treasury than the amounts they borrow, those dividends don’t reduce the $187.5 billion in stock held by the Treasury. The terms of their government support don’t provide a clear mechanism for them to redeem those shares, and the companies are currently required to send all of their profits to the Treasury as dividend payments.
The Treasury faces lawsuits from nearly 20 investors challenging the dividend terms, which were modified in 2012. They say the government’s collection of the firms’ entire profits amounts to an unconstitutional appropriation of assets and that the Treasury and the firms’ federal regulator engaged in illegal self-dealing when it made those changes. The government has filed motions to dismiss the suits, which they say are without merit.
Many of the aggrieved investors bought Fannie and Freddie stock—particularly the preferred shares, which was a form of senior equity—after the government bailout. The initial terms required Fannie and Freddie to pay a 10% dividend on the shares that the government held, and many investors bet that the companies would ultimately become profitable enough to make money even after paying those dividends.
In 2012, however, the government changed the terms and upended those bets by requiring all profits to be paid out as dividends to the government and eliminating the prospect that the companies would have any residual earnings for those shareholders.
Still, shares of Fannie and Freddie are trading more than 1600% above their levels of a year ago and in the past week touched levels last seen before they were seized by the U.S. in 2008.
Senate lawmakers are working to introduce bipartisan legislation that would overhaul the firms, but many analysts assign low odds to the prospect that a bill would pass Congress this year.
Some lawmakers have said taxpayers are entitled to generous returns because the government agreed to accept nearly unlimited losses during the crisis, nursing the companies back to health. “I was a venture capitalist for a lot longer than I’ve been a politician. If I had put $180 billion into Fannie and Freddie back in 2009, I’d expect more than a 1 to 1 return on that,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) at a conference last fall. “So once I got a 30-to-1 return…talk to me about Fannie and Freddie making money.”
Absent a change in the Treasury’s support or a court ruling that forces the Treasury to revisit the current terms, the companies can’t keep most of their earnings, meaning that, unlike other bailed-out firms such as General Motors Co. or American International Group Inc., they won’t be returned to private control on their own.
Monday’s projections represent a simple snapshot based on a series of assumptions that are highly sensitive to changes in the economy and financial markets.
As spring approaches, it's looking more and more like a Bloomin' Onion to me! Time to grow and blossom for sure. March 20th.....hmmmm?
Great game chessmaster and not trying to take the fun out of it, but you might want to change those numbers to include taxes. Most folks will be on average giving 30% to 50% of their profits right back in taxes depending if they are short or long term capital gains.
Ralph Nader Discusses Fannie and Freddie Shareholder Fight
BY Dan Freed | 03/06/14 - 02:47 PM EST
NEW YORK (TheStreet) --Storied consumer advocate and occasional third party presidential candidate Ralph Nader owns shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA_) and Freddie Mac (FMCC_), and has criticized the government for ignoring the rights of shareholders since putting the government sponsored enterprises into conservatorship in 2008. Along with deep-pocketed investors such as Perry Capital and Fairholme Funds, Nader has been arguing the government needs to recognize the rights of shareholders, instead of sending all the profits of the GSEs to the Treasury, aside from minimal capital buffers.
Nader spoke to TheStreet senior writer Dan Freed this week to elaborate on his position.
TheStreet: Shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have filed about 20 different lawsuits against the government. Have you?
Ralph Nader: No. We haven't. We've been on this GSE on different matters for over 25 years. The first interest was were they fulfilling their mission of advancing affordable housing for lower income people, which is one of the reasons why they were given a privileged position and their charter. And so we had maps of cities all over the country, redlining maps, and we concluded that they weren't doing what they were supposed to be doing or even what they were bragging about doing. That was the first.
The second entry subject was a little later when they messed around with the accounting to increase the stock options and compensation of their top executives, and their heavy-handed lobbying at Capital Hill.
And then the third was the whole 2008-2009 conservatorship.
TheStreet: So why haven't you joined all these other plaintiffs in this latest issue, you know, ignoring the shareholders in the wake of the conservatorship, or abusing them if you want to put it that way. I don't think that's too strong way to put it. Why aren't you suing them?
Nader: Well, first of all, others are and they found lawyers, or they could pay for lawyers. So we decided, you know, why duplicate it? There are plenty of lawsuits now, and [Gibson Dunne partner and former U.S. Solicitor General] Ted Olson's got a lot of credibility in the Supreme Court whereas we couldn't get any lawyers to take the case pro bono, you know, and we usually have to have pro bono lawyers.
TheStreet: I see. Olson has been much more out in front on this than [David] Boies [another high profile attorney representing GSE shareholders in a suit against the government] has. Any sense of why that is? They're both suing but it seems like Olson's been more vocal and you hosted a recent shareholder event http://www.thestreet.com/story/12311715/1/strange-bedfellows-say-let-fannie-and-freddie-live.html with Olson rather than Boies. Why is that?
Nader: I think part of it is Boies is in New York, Olson's in Washington. And Olson has the stronger case. Of all the cases filed, he has the stronger case. You know, that the Treasury revised its position in 2012 [by changing the terms of its investment in the GSEs so that instead of the GSEs owing a 10% dividend to the Treasury, the GSEs suddenly owed the Treasury all of their profits for an indefinite period, aside from minimal capital buffers.]
TheStreet: What do you think is going on here? Why do you think the Treasury did this amendment in 2012?
Nader: I think two reasons. One, they thought they could get away with it because they thought there's no history of law behind conservatorship like this. It's all behind bankruptcy. And so they thought they could write their own rules, just like they wrote their own conservatorship. And the second is, they sensed that this would help keep the deficit down -- that this huge Niagara of profits would --and they were right on that.
Oh by the way, there's a third reason. And they had already stripped the shareholders of any rights, you see, so they didn't have to worry about the shareholders. But they miscalculated that one, at least to the point where they're confronting lawsuits which they think they're going to win.
TheStreet: I feel like this is the kind of a thing where if ordinary Americans, more Americans were aware of what the government had done, that it could be a huge scandal for Obama. But I think people just aren't aware of it. I mean, it seems really brazen what his administration has done.
Nader: Well, it started with Bush, obviously, and it was the Bush administration that misled the Fannie and Freddie shareholders in 2008, starting with OFHEO's director [James Lockhart], and then followed by [Henry] Paulson, Secretary of Treasury, and then [Ben] Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. And they all said the same thing, "Don't worry folks, these companies are well capitalized. There's nothing to worry about." And less than two months later they went over the brink. So the deception, which raises real equity remedies for shareholders. I mean, if corporate executives did that, even the slumbering SEC would have woken up and gone after them.
That was all done under Bush. The switcheroo, changing the rules and getting all the profits, that was done under Obama. But the problem is that by 2012 most of the big institutional shareholders had bailed out, so there wasn't a vested interest until about a year ago when the hedge funds started moving in. Now there's a vested interest of some magnitude.
TheStreet: Right. Talking about your criticism of the GSEs before the 2008 crisis, you recently wrote, "I was clear that their drive for profits could tempt them into murky legal waters. My opposition to their management compensation packages and questionable accounting practices were made plain." Why then, I wonder, did you buy shares in the GSEs?
Nader: Well, I bought them way before the crash.
TheStreet: Right. No. I know that. You were raising questions about the compensation packages and accounting practices before the crash, too.
Nader: Sure. But that's what shareholders should do. Instead of quitting, they should push. And you know, some people don't remember that Fannie and Freddie were promoted as the second safest investment in America, you know, after Treasuries. So there are a lot of people...
TheStreet: Yeah. So that's why you were an investor.
Nader: Yeah. So a lot of people put it away for their kids' education, you know, they put it in a lock box. And then, you know, they were severely deceived in 2008 and then wow, just in a matter of days, you know, it fell down, you know, from 30, 20, 10, five, four, three. You know, most individual shareholders don't react that fast even if they watch it in the papers. They can't believe it. And those are the people who were mistreated. We're not talking about day traders today.
TheStreet: Do you have any misgivings about the strong position that you've taken on the GSEs for this reason. I mean, your position is the right one, but do you ever feel like that, you know, geeze, I'm simply acting as the kind of acceptable poster boy or the front man for a bunch of hedge funds that are just going to get totally rich off this trade?
Nader: Well, we want tougher, we wanted tougher regulation prohibiting them from the kind of lobbying they're doing, this is all before 2008, making them meet the demands for affordable housing, the needs of affordable housing which they were ignoring because they were going for the easiest profits. And so, you know, it's like saying that someone who's been around for years, "These newcomers, aren't they tainting you?" No. I mean, you know, we're really well grounded in this. And they're raising interesting issues on the decision to grab all the profits. And if they're doing it and they've got lawyers to do it, well, that sort of helps us because we also agree that, that was an unlawful interpretation, changing the rules of the game unilaterally like that.
Just like they delisted. I mean, Demarco delisted from the New York Stock Exchange Freddie and Fannie when there was no reason to do it, and billions of dollars evaporated in a week. You know, you push them onto the pink sheets and the thing dropped, and when I tried to write them and demand an explanation, all he really could come up with was, "Well, it saves on legal fees. So like we better do it now, we'll get rid of it, won't have to pay legal fees." But I said, "But you're statutorily required to preserve the assets. How do you preserve the assets when you delist them before the New York Stock Exchange even indicated any warning?" Well, that's what they said.
So, you know, they're operating just like autocrats, total autocrats. But they were using the shareholders because they needed them to have 20 percent so that the government didn't have to put five trillion dollars of liabilities on their own books. So they were using the shareholders and abusing them at the same time. You know about that, don't you? The 80/20?
TheStreet: Yes. I do. [Nader is referring to the fact that when the government put the GSEs into conservatorship, it took a 79.9% stake, which is the maximum it could take without adding the debt to the federal budget. In this way, Nader, argues, shareholders were being used, because their minority stake prevented the official tally from increasing on the federal deficit .]
Nader: So, you know, there are real equitable issues here that are raised.
TheStreet: Aside from restoring the rights of shareholders, what would you like to see happen to Fannie and Freddie?
Nader: Well, I like a public utility model. You know, just turn them into regulated public utilities, limited rates of return, strong regulation. They could still have shareholders and all that, but I think that the alternative is real speculative chaos when you throw it open to all these sharks that would enter the field. And I'm not saying the realtors are terrified of Fannie and Freddie being dumped. That's why I don't think the Warner-Corker bill has a chance.
TheStreet: Say more. Why are the realtors terrified?
Nader: Well, because they see that the two, Fannie and Freddie, are the stable bedrocks of the housing mortgage market, and what's not to like, you know, from their point of view? So they're not moving into Congress because they know that Warner-Corker is going nowhere. And if it is starting to go, then you're going to see one hell of a powerful lobby. The real estate lobby, every district, you know, campaign contributions. They'd move in quickly and put an end to it.
TheStreet: Yeah. What do you think it will take for the Obama administration to say uncle in this battle with Ted Olson and others?
Nader: I think they'll just run out the clock to 2016, just like they're not really doing anything about restructuring. Well, because, you know, everything is going smoothly, you know, as far as the industry of housing, and they know they'll create a hornet's nest and have to expend capital, and why should they do that? You know, you know how politicians operate.
TheStreet: Yeah. But that internal memo that came out recently. You know, the memo to Tim Geithner where it says, you know, refers to their plan to be sure that shareholders get none of the profits, or whatever it said. I mean, if stuff like that keeps coming out, don't you think that can get pretty damaging?
Nader: No, because they'll come back and say, "Look, we wiped out GM (GM_) and Chrysler," and we say, "Well, you didn't wipe out Citigroup (C_) and AIG (AIG_)," and they said, "That's true but we haven't wiped out the shareholders yet and they're lucky to even be shareholders as we saved Fannie and Freddie." I mean, that's the short term political answer to all of that, that it could have been worse, you know? We could have done nothing. Well, nobody believes that because if they did nothing then it would have really been bad for everybody.
TheStreet: So you think the Obama administration will run out the clock, and then how does this ultimately get resolved? Through the courts eventually over time?
Nader: Yeah. I don't see it hitting the Supreme Court before two years, if that. I mean, you know, nobody can predict with great certainty anything, but you know, you ask, what's in it for them to make any changes? If they were real equitable, they would say "Okay, for the day traders we're not giving dividends but we're going to declare a special dividend since the tax payers have been paid back before the end of the year. We're going to declare a special dividend for shareholders who held shares before the collapse and still hold them." So for the old shareholders, they get a dividend, and the new ones, you know, they knew what they were getting into. They weren't deceived. It had already collapsed.
--Written by Dan Freed in New York
Follow @dan_freed
Apparently he didn't get the memo, that what you said yesterday and today can be used against you tomorrow. Arrogance abounds...
IMFnews....3/6/14
Short Takes: Treasury?s Stegman: ?Tweaking? the GSEs Won?t Work / HomeStreet Selling Jumbo Whole Loans / Surprise: VA Loan Limits Rise in Honolulu / A Correction on the FHA MMIF
By Paul Muolo, Brandon Ivey
pmuolo@imfpubs.com, bivey@imfpubs.com
Senior Treasury official Michael Stegman said Thursday that ?tweaking? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for eventual survival will not work. In other words, the Obama administration still wants them killed. Speaking in Washington before a JPMorgan conference on securitized products, Stegman also shot down the idea of current Federal Housing Finance Agency director Mel Watt cleaning them up through continued government stewardship. Of course, even if the Senate passes a GSE bill this year it?s dead in the House. Next?
The fledgling "common securitization platform" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is housed at 7501 Wisconsin Avenue in Bethesda, MD. If memory serves us, the building was once home to RFC...
and down goes Frazier!
He certainly could one day if FnF are released from conservatorship and allowed to be the companies the were pre-2008. I have seen an interview where Bill Ackman was asked if he had any political aspirations. He said not really, but he does enjoy politics and has many friends in DC. He jokingly stated that if the POTUS is like the CEO of America, he would rather be the CFO. Actually running the business of the USA.
If Ackman does get a seat on the BOD one day, rest assured he will want at least 2-4 of his cohorts on there with him.
Imo, Stegman's comments will have nothing to do with todays movement. I believe this is one or more large investors taking a position in FnF. If you look back at the 5-6 week period of 10/7-11/21/13 when Ackman & Berkowitz took their 10% & 2.25% common stakes positions respectively, you will see a similar pattern. The last 3 weeks (as of close tomorrow) is the current period when this new position (could also be Ack or Berko doubling down) has occurred. Depending on volume and the desired final % position this could continue over the next week or more. No one knows but the people involved.
Again, all in my opinion.
bmp512, Michael Stegman is the keynote speaker at the J.P. Morgan 2014 Securitized Products Research Conference today, located at the Grand Hyatt New York — Ballroom Level. Lots of heavy hitters in attendance. Nick Timiraos from WSJ is covering it.
That was the end date to purchase warrants I believe. They already puchases 4.6B shares at the low-low price of .00001 per...or something like $4,600. They have until 9/7/2028 (I believe) to exercise those warrants.
I remember watching a hearing last fall (can't remember which one it was) where Carol Galante, head of the FHA was getting blasted by congressman after congressman for the $1.3B negative balance that the FHA showed on its reports as of 9/30/2013. Even as Galante keep explaining that she knew that this would become positive very soon based on the information in front of her and available to all of the congressmen. It didn't matter, they kept grilling her. Again, it just goes to show you that congress usually has no clue what they are talking about. They just have their agendas complete with soapboxes, and ignorance of course.
bmp152, it could be why, lately, we haven't heard much from congress with respect to FnF.
MB, I agree. Other than the $1B leaving FnF, per say, I can only think this will help the cause/case of FnF's shareholders.
Obit, you beat me to it. I was going to add those 9 100K+ share trades totaled 1,604,553 shares or an average of 178,283.67. Big $.
If you've watched L2 this week it's apparent RAFF (Bove) has been more active than usual.
IMFnews....2/27/2014
Court of Claims Allows for Fairholme?s GSE ?Takings? Suit to Move Forward
By Charles Wisniowski
cwisniowski@imfpubs.com
The U.S. Court of Claims late Wednesday granted discovery to private equity firm Fairholme Capital Management as it seeks to challenge the government's August 2012 "net worth sweep" that effectively allows the Treasury Department to confiscate almost all profits generated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Fairholme, founded by Wall Street veteran Bruce Berkowitz, controls roughly $2.4 billion (face value) of Fannie and Freddie "junior" preferred. Thanks to the September 2008 government takeover of the two, the U.S. Treasury controls the senior preferred and is effectively the owner of the two GSEs.
As one GSE observer put it: "Game on."
In her ruling, Judge Margaret Sweeny, in rebuffing the government's motion, writes that Fairholme contends that "discovery would reveal information relevant to resolving the factual dispute between plaintiffs and defendant regarding each party's assessment of future profitability. The court agrees."
She adds: "Discovery will enable plaintiffs to confirm that such evidence exists with regard to profitability and additionally answer the question as to when, and how, the conservatorship will end. This information is solely in the possession of defendant and, therefore, discovery is appropriate in order to permit plaintiffs to respond to the jurisdictional questions raised by defendant."
Last summer, Fairholme filed suit demanding that the Treasury Department's amendment to the preferred stock purchase agreement be voided. For more on the story, see the upcoming edition of Inside The GSEs.
Freddie Mac Earned $8.6 Billion in 4Q; Dividend ?Surplus? Approaching $10.5 Billion
By Paul Muolo
pmuolo@imfpubs.com
Freddie Mac -- whose senior preferred stock is owned by the U.S. Treasury -- earned $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter and will soon cut Uncle Sam a $10.4 billion dividend check.
Once the payment is made to the Treasury Department in March, Freddie will have paid the government $81.8 billion versus past draws of $71.3 billion, giving the GSE an account "surplus" of $10.5 billion.
In its earnings statement, Freddie notes that of the $8.6 billion in net earnings for 4Q, $4.8 billion came from legal settlements tied to faulty private label MBS it bought from Wall Street prior to the housing bust, plus an additional $800 million from representation and warranty settlements with seller/servicers.
During an earnings call with reporters Thursday morning, Freddie executives said the rep and warranty recoveries have come to an end, but it anticipates more in the way of legal recoveries from PLS settlements. "More are in the works," Freddie CEO Don Layton said in response to a question from IMFnews. "But we have no feel for specific numbers."
For the full year, Freddie posted net earnings of $48.7 billion, $23.3 billion of which is tied to the release of its "deferred tax asset valuation allowance," an accounting event that will not reoccur. For additional analysis, see the new edition of Inside Mortgage Finance, available online Thursday afternoon.
Thanks Obi, I had been tracking the 100k and over shares trade this week. Monday 39, Tues. 23, Wed. forget (all off the top of my head) and today it looks like we already have about 30. the big boys are definitely in the playground. Care to speculate who? Bove...Richards..?
Just a FYI, $ volume for the first 2 hours today is about 80% of the same time period yesterday.
feral, great point. Too bad TV and print don't really allow for the "detailed" real truth to be explained. They just want their sound bites and 5 minute reads for their ratings.
I say how about a full "CBS 60 minutes" show when all of the facts start to come out. That would be the way to do it and hit the masses.
JEDIDIAH, what you (and I believe most) don't realize is the govt has already been paid 10% interest on the money they gave FnF. It's not your fault because it's never reported the right way really. Bruce Richards of Marathon Asset Management in this video from yesterday at the 13:33 mark explains it pretty well.
Basically, originally FnF had to pay 10% interest on their "loan". In the first year or two they where losing money so the Treasury made them take out more money just to pay the 10% which just added to make up the total of $188B borrowed. They really only borrowed $130B, but had to borrow another $58B so the govt could get it's 10%. So, in reality, the Govt has already made an annual 10% ROI over the last 4-5 years. That doesn't even include the extra 5B from the payment about to be made...plus whatever Freddie reports tomorrow!
They will probably be up $10-15B PLUS THE 10% ANNUL ROI in the next month or so when this next payment is made.
But, you know, it's not the 30-1 ROI that Senator Mark "VC" Warner is demanding! lol
Obi, funny you should post this. I watched this for about 30 minutes just a few nights ago. Good stuff.
The tick data from the last 3 days reminds me of last fall when Ackman and Berkowitz were loading. If you care to share a brief summary of how you build/use your monthly info/charting I would love to try to learn as much as I can, as I'm a long-term investor here also, not a trader.
Thanks again for all of your input and as you said, the rest of the week should be interesting.
intrinsicvalue, thank you as well.
Obi, you are the man! Thanks for this wonderful news.
It only states that it has withdrawn both FnF's E+ Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR). It has not given FnF a new rating as of yet, but all other ratings of FnF remain unchanged.
Thatsnotyourmoney, here's an explanation of Moody's Bank Financial Strength Ratings...
Moody’s Bank Financial Strength Ratings (BFSRs) represent Moody’s opinion of a bank’s intrinsic
safety and soundness and, as such, exclude certain external credit risks and credit support
elements that are addressed by Moody’s Bank Deposit Ratings. In addition to commercial banks,
Moody’s BFSRs may also be assigned to other types of financial institutions such as multilateral
development banks, government-sponsored financial institutions and national development
financial institutions.
Unlike Moody’s Bank Deposit Ratings, Bank Financial Strength Ratings do not address the
probability of timely payment. Instead, Bank Financial Strength Ratings are a measure of the
likelihood that a bank will require assistance from third parties such as its owners, its industry
group, or official institutions.
Bank Financial Strength Ratings do not take into account the probability that the bank will
receive such external support, nor do they address risks arising from sovereign actions that may
interfere with a bank’s ability to honor its domestic or foreign currency obligations.
Factors considered in the assignment of Bank Financial Strength Ratings include bank specific
elements such as financial fundamentals, franchise value, and business and asset
diversification. Although Bank Financial Strength Ratings exclude the external factors specified
above, they do take into account other risk factors in the bank’s operating environment, including
the strength and prospective performance of the economy, as well as the structure and relative
fragility of the financial system, and the quality of banking regulation and supervision.
Bank Financial Strength Rating Definitions
A Banks rated A possess superior intrinsic financial strength. Typically, they will be institutions
with highly valuable and defensible business franchises, strong financial fundamentals,
and a very predictable and stable operating environment.
B Banks rated B possess strong intrinsic financial strength. Typically, they will be institutions
with valuable and defensible business franchises, good financial fundamentals, and a predictable
and stable operating environment.
C Banks rated C possess adequate intrinsic financial strength. Typically, they will be institutions
with more limited but still valuable business franchises. These banks will display either
acceptable financial fundamentals within a predictable and stable operating environment,
or good financial fundamentals within a less predictable and stable operating environment.
D Banks rated D display modest intrinsic financial strength, potentially requiring some outside
support at times. Such institutions may be limited by one or more of the following factors: a
weak business franchise; financial fundamentals that are deficient in one or more respects; or
an unpredictable and unstable operating environment.
E Banks rated E display very modest intrinsic financial strength, with a higher likelihood of periodic
outside support or an eventual need for outside assistance. Such institutions may be limited
by one or more of the following factors: a weak and limited business franchise; financial
fundamentals that are materially deficient in one or more respects; or a highly unpredictable
or unstable operating environment.
Note: Where appropriate, a "+" modifier will be appended to ratings below the "A" category and a "-" modifier
will be appended to ratings above the "E" category to distinguish those banks that fall in the higher and lower ends,
respectively, of the generic rating category.
Yes, is was. Except for the fact Charlie Gasparino was the interviewer. I think the guy has taken too many punches to the head...he usually has no clue what he's talking about. Bove was great.