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I believe you are right, Spec! It was an outright grant, that I am optimistic will be reinstated after the DOE realizes the potential of the Chinese involvement, and that it now hinges on the DOE's decision as to whether or not they are now willing to finish their part!
I believe there is now a more than even chance the DOE will change their minds, and fairly soon. IF not, the Chinese companies have a strong interest in seeing that final financing piece is obtained, one way or another.
I am sure the Chinese did a lot of DD studying the economics on the BFRE website and elsewhere, before making their huge decision to go all the way with Bluefire technology! It shows how Arnie Klann's patience, along with excellent business judgement and honesty, have finally started to pay off, as well as to help both the US and China in developing clean energy, that will help the environments as well.
My hat is off to those Chinese businessmen and political leaders, for their insight and vision, as well as to Bluefire! May both nations profit greatly by this joint venture.
Not unreasonable, compared with a price over $4 in 2006, when all they had planned was a small plant in CAL, and future plans to add plants at landfills.
I doubt if they will build plants with as much as 130 mgpy capacity, but it should be possible. They may need to spread them out depending on locations, types and amounts of raw materials. They will likely determine the largest size that would be practical, and use that whenever sufficient raw materials are available, and maybe scale down other plant sizes when materials are not so readily available. I don't think they will want to haul raw materials too far. Their huge landfills could be good locations for some plants. Even BFRE was(is) planning to partner with Waste Management to build plants on or near their waste locations.
This should stimulate the DOE towards reversing their earlier decision to stop funding BFRE! Once they announce a reversal in funding BFRE, watch the buy orders begin to flood in!!!
I am with you, welljc and bluesky.
Vortmax, I think BFRE is THE one, too! Do you know of any other cellulosic ethanol company that has actually proven its process with a pilot plant trial, and has then moved on to commercial plants?
I believe the cost of enzymes and their yields are inferior to using concentrated strong acids per the BFRE/Arkenol process, such that Bluefire has emerged as the winner for planning commercial production.
Again, once the Fulton plant is built and checked out for efficiency and economics, and confirms the good experience in Japan, the building of more US, and many Chinese plants, could skyrocket!
Yes, and it is much cheaper to make it out of trash, or left-overs of some crop, than to use corn or sugar-cane. Too bad they didn't realize the value of BFRE's process a few years earlier!
Vortmax, this deal with Novozymes was made around 2008-9, and as far as I can determine, no cellulosic ethanol plants have yet been put into production in China nor anywhere else, I think, using enzymes to extract the sugars from cellulose( sugar is then converted to ethanol by traditional processes). This company produces enzymes and other chemicals, and wants to utilize their enzymes in making cellulosic ethanol.
I have no evidence of a sound, economical process being available using enzymes, contrary to BFRE's concentrated acid hydrolysis technology, which was proven out technically and economically in Japan a few years ago. It appears to me the Chinese have given up on Novozymes Corp., and were drawn to Bluefire with a proven process. They are now years behind their original timeline, and should therefore move rapidly in helping put up the Fulton plant with BFRE, in order to verify all the earlier work done in Japan, and even earlier small process work in the US.
If I am right on this, I would expect the Chinese to be encouraging the DOE to change their minds on stopping further funding. In the last resort, if DOE remains steadfast, the Chinese may even provide this assistance themselves, in order to get their huge project running. Once Fulton is in operation, and proven to be a viable operation, which I fully expect to be the case, there should be no limit to how fast China expands their cellulosic ethanol plants using the Bluefire(Arkenol) process.
Good news from the DOE will be a real game-changer for BFRE!
[:^)
Maybe they will start out by selling patent rights to those who want to start making their own units, while they wait for orders to build their own? That could mean immediate income vs. paying to make their own units to lease, or ship new orders with?
I wonder if they plan to sell the new units outright, or own and lease them? I would think before they sell many though, they would want to build enough to own for shipping materials to their own new customers? Maybe they will simply respond to wherever the markets lead them???
I still feel the last piece of financing is now an almost sure thing: If the DOE doesn't come through, the Chinese should see to it themselves, in order to fulfill their own interests.
I think Pres. Klann began the appeal some months ago! They should have been discussing this for some time now, plus the China deals just add a positive factor in helping them in deciding to reverse the earlier decision.
If the DOE reverses their decision soon, I expect a HUGE rush to buy, and very little selling without a sharp run-up in price, since that news will mean everything would be in place for the Fulton plant construction to begin! [:?)
I have to believe Arnie Klann has visited China multiple times, and must have a very good opinion of that country, its people, and its business climate. I suspect he may have even visited some of their potential plant sites and raw material sources.
I am pretty sure he must feel the cooperative program he has entered into with Three Gorges and the EXIM Bank will become very rewarding for all involved.
I see the climate discussions with China as having the potential of getting the DOE to reconsider their grant to BFRE. In fact, I feel that is becoming increasingly likely, since the Chinese are otherwise completely set to begin step one of the big cooperative venture with BFRE, using their superior cellulosic technology ( strong acids react faster than enzymes, for one thing)!
In addition, the pressures to begin this venture is increasing as time goes on, and if the DOE delays their reversal very long, I feel sure that an alternative solution to complete financing will be found before much more time passes.
PS, that sure seems to be the case. We should now expect a breakthrough in orders fairly soon, followed by a surge in the stock price! [:?)
Let's just expect that when DDCC starts getting orders for their new transport units, they can find the right company with capacity to manufacture them as fast as they can utilize them.
I am sorry I didn't ask to be a moderator here, as I would have "diluted" about 20% of the recent posts by now. [:^(
All sounds good, ProfitScout! Soon the problem may be waiting for more Translock units to become available! [:?)
Vortmax, that report is very interesting, especially to a chemical engineer who worked in the petrochemical industry. I did notice China's report of several years ago was based on a cellulosic process using enzymes to separate the sugars from the cellulosic raw materials.
It seems very likely the Chinese have done a lot of DD on the various processes, and they now seem to have picked Bluefire's concentrated acid hydrolysis technology as the one to run with, for their huge future ethanol production forecasts. In other words, they must believe the BFRE technology is superior to all others, which I certainly do too, after studying Bluefire's pilot plant history in Japan history, and their economic analysis.
All of this tells me that the Chinese will ultimately see that their plans for using the BFRE process will be realized, whether the DOE reverses their decision or not. I just feel there is now too much decided/committed to the BFRE technology, and that it will now go forward very soon, one way or another!
Any final decision on this, whether by our DOE, or a Chinese company/bank, should send the price of BFRE soaring!
Gladiator, you can thank "global warming" for the drop in temps! :^(
After BFRE gets its remaining funds lined up ( preferably from the DOE, which will not need to be paid back), and the Fulton plant is running and deemed a huge success, both operationally and profitably, there should then come a rapid buildup of plants( and their funding) in both America and China. This should result in huge stock gains, and very possibly attempts to get control. However, since it will be mainly between Bluefire, Three Gorges and the EXIM Bank of China, it may become very difficult for anyone else to get control, or be able to buy them out!
CEO Klann has stuck it out for years now, between Arkenol and Bluefire, and I think he has the strength of character to go all the way with Bluefire!
Terry, I believe even more products could be made from the first output of the cellulosic process, which is sucrose(sugar). The choice involves markets, price/profits of the final product, and cost/ease of revising the process after sugar extraction to make the chosen final product.
Ethanol conversion from cellulosic sucrose is well-known, has a huge potential market, and its profitability seems to be good, especially for companies that do not have to purchase corn as their raw material. The choice of final product could actually vary from one country to another, depending on market considerations. It is even possible for one plant to produce multiple products, using several plant units with different designs.
Have you heard that Denton, TX just voted to ban fracking in their city, where a number of wells already exist? It is already being challenged, so let's watch this battle, as it could affect energy production around populated areas.
I think you may be right! Only hope they are already making some preliminary talks with construction contractor(s) so they can do their own preliminary planning, etc.?
I wonder how fast DDCC can produce the new containers once they get some orders for them?
Salamon, Kim is the reason I bought in the summer of 2013 also. He mentioned a, "double leaf", which described the original trademark symbol of DoubleCrown.
Since buying, DDCC has also impressed me with how much and how fast they continue to develop their business plan and technology. The amazing thing to me is how long it is taking for orders to start coming in? Now that the new improved transport system is introduced, it shouldn't be much longer now!
I continue to believe the DOE has sufficient incentives now to reverse their last decision to drop financing. This would greatly benefit BFRE too, since a grant does not have to be repaid.
I think the DOE is going to see the light on this one, and regain a lot of the favor they lost on companies like Solyndra.
AMEN, and AMEN!!! (in case two are allowed)! [:^)
Hanging on!!!! [:?)
IMO, the interest by China is now so high, that they may not wait a very long time for the DOE to reconsider, before a Chinese company or its Government kicks in with the piece the DOE is supposed to provide.
If that is accurate, then the ultimate success of Bluefire in America, as well as the Chinese big plant buildup, is essentially a certainty, depending only on success with Fulton's process and economics. From earlier work in Japan, Fulton success is very likely, IMHO.
From what I gather, it IS a pretty impressive design, and I think it should become the leader in all kinds of shipping of all kinds of materials!
Surprised this hasn't yet caused more buying of DDCC???
Great news, ProfitScout! It is time now for investors to take action on this!
Garyst, if the CEO buys another 5 mm shares in the future, would that mean the DOE has reversed their decision( or another finance source has been found)???
By the way, I am assuming the wood chips plant recently projected in Fulton, for sales to Europe, may not now be needed. If I am correct, the original ethanol volume and plant pricing should remain as it was.
Even if the cellulosic technology may not be much better, the price of corn vs. waste materials adds mucho dollars to the bottom line of Bluefire's future sales. Any subsidies for cellulosic processes will also increase the BFRE bottom line.
However, the large loan paybacks could offset some of that advantage in figuring net profits. So, the economics of the Fulton plant may get a lot of analysis before proceeding with the remaining US plant construction?
Thanks, ProfitScout, for the clarification! Sounds like a real winner this time!!!
Never mind my second question: I just read in Business Wire the new system is, "patent pending". My, they really kept THIS work quiet for some time! :)