Oil setting new lows. Down to $26.75, after opening $27.34

We will see how low it drops overnight

Yep, except one problem. I don't think in the Saudis wildest dreams they ever thought oil would get down near $25. US shale was supposed to be shut down under $40, but it's not. To compound this problem the 2 biggest economies in the world saw major slowdown. This has pinned Saudi Arabia in a tough position of not being able to drop production, but having prices seriously cut into their reserves.

Yes, last time it was about 2 weeks after the low, which is why I think they will be more aggressive this time around if it gets near $1

Yep back in late August. I think they will be much faster to split it this time, especially in a market which would crash it fast. They got a bit lucky last time it rallied back before the split.

There is almost no chance uwti makes it under $1.00, a reverse stock split would happen first.

Saudi Arabia's cost has been estimated in the $4-$7 range per barrel. Now the problem that is bigger is the kingdom will run out of cash reserves in a few years if prices stay this low because of the subsidies they give their citizens.

All the TA in the world isn't likely to help you identify a bottom I don't think, because this is political. Oil does not need to be at this price, but the Saudis have led/allowed it to come here for longer term gains. The bottom is likely to be set off news of an agreed upon production cut including the Saudis. The problem is, no one knows when or what price will force their hand.

Nope. A stock that can't rally is destined to go a lot lower. Lnkd was crashing yesterday before the rest of the market fell and today couldn't rally above $104. Look for a fall under $90, maybe down to $75

You forgot to say, let us know "before" it bottoms, not after..lol

I have no doubts it would bounce quickly off $25, but I think it would be a dead cat bounce mostly trying to clear the shorts. The problem now is simply a fundamental one for oil. Too much supply, running out of storage, demand falling and getting a lot worse as the US comes out of a pretty mild winter. Saudi Arabia is the only country that can sway oil prices significantly and they are scared shitless to lose market share so they play the game of chicken longer.

I have held the thought that oil was trading $25-$35, and that's why last week was a great time to sell when they rallied it, because literally buyers of oil are disappearing fast and all this production talk was just that, cheap tricks.

Now though, I'm not sure $25 is even safe on the bottom, maybe more like $20. You can never trust Russia, Iran and a few others to stick to any production cut and the US economy continues to slow down with China and Japan continuing to fall as well. More oil loan defaults will come, but shale producers can and will come back to the market quickly once prices start rising enough as in the $40 range. For now though, there is nothing to suggest buying uwti is a good bet until much lower.

Going lower, expect a test of $25, maybe tomorrow

It may in fact reverse split again before it hits $1 as it did last time.

Again don't get me wrong. I've owned this stock for some time, I'll own it again in the next few months, but unless it drops into the 20's, I don't see a lot of upside in that time span vs other trades, that's all I am saying. Not bashing it, really I had not paid attention much to it since selling 3 weeks ago. If I miss some monster move up, it would suck, but I can't see where it would come from in the next 3 months.

On what basis do you highly doubt approval would take that long? Best case scenario acceptance of the NDA is 3 weeks out, worst case it is 2 months. Even with expedited review, it's going to get approved in under 5 months? Why would that be?

Huh? Seriously, help me understand why acceptance is p

Don't need to be. The acceptance is Not days away, it is weeks. The approval is over 6 months away. The point about eltp being on the back burner for a while is accurate.

Thanks, had not seen that yet. NDA acceptance will be nice, guess we have to see where eltp is trading, but in this market I wouldn't expect a big pop on acceptance. Now approval obviously brings the goods, but that's 6-9 months away. For my money right now, better use of cash elsewhere in the short term.

Not trying to be funny, but how do you know the NDA was filed on January 14th? I know the wording used by nasrat, but still not sure it was filed that day or even within a few days.

Sure and don't get me wrong, I still like the company and will buy back into the stock, but right now it's not going to jump in the short term without acceptance of the NDA first, which is likely still a few months away.

The real problem for eltp is that it's in a holding pattern for the next several months, awaiting first acceptance of the NDA and then approval. With the overall market tanking, you are likely to see more and more rotation out in the short term to stocks that have more upside near term.

Well the most important number out tomorrow will be the non-farm payroll. That is released at 8:30 est.

For oil the rig count in North America will be released at 10:30 est. It will tell you the change in total rigs operating. The idea is that rigs will be going down as oil prices are dropping, making for less supply.

Bought uwti here. I've been more on the dwti side, but something tells me no matter what the number released tomorrow, that oil will rally.

Because it won't get there?

No this was a bit of a nuts day. Literally no new news is out that would help oil, but a big rally came anyway. It was definitely strange. I'll be watching overnight as if oil keeps rising I'll put a good amount into dwti again closer to $230

Yep this is why I prefer to trade it each day instead of straight pick a side.

Just bought at 304. Just like last night don't believe there will be follow through on the move.

Thinking the exact opposite, as oil looks top heavy this morning

Thanks. That's the thing about the lack of news, prices normally return to a range and this was going down too fast to not have some kind of rebound.

$45? Over a 35 billion valuation for a company with zero prospects to actually make money? Sorry keep dreaming

Yep I don't disagree with the direction, I just have a feeling a rebound to $30 may be coming overnight and decided a little more than $76 per share is good to take off the table for a few day trade. Now I don't have get up and check oil overnight ..lol.

Sold dwti tonight at $347. I've held for a couple days, but I'm just not sure how much more it falls straight down without a rebound.

The problem is Russia is very weak in this oil market. They desperately need the money, and everyone knows it as their economy has gone to shit. Iran just back on the market has zero chance to cut, so this leave the Saudis as the only ones with the swing and they are terrified to lose market share as the Whole reason they haven't cut back is exactly to gain market share.

As with any trading market, the longer oil sits here at $30 the more risk to continue the trend, which is down. If it's going to rebound, it has to get off this level soon

A deal to cut production? I personally would be shocked. The Saudis put the caveat that large non opec players would have to agree to cut too. A deal may eventually come but it's not coming now

The assault on $30 a barrel is not over today. The rally so far has been capped and traders will take aim at $30 again here shortly I think. If oil can hold and bounce that's a good sign for the longs, but another test is coming. I've been holding dwti all day waiting to see

For the most part, here is what I have found to be the deal. News tends to trump all. Now sometimes it's that, that news is known before it is made public, but if it's real news not previously known, and big enough, no market maker would step in front of it.

The chess match you refer to is very common and when news isn't out. That's where technical analysis, big players trading, gut feel and overall market manipulation all come into play. The better you are in your ability to decifer this aspect, the more money you can make.

I have still yet to see anything to push me off the $25-$35 range I was referring to last week, but that does mean I will just straight sell or buy, there is always swings to play.

The money for the most part will follow the news, hence when Russia talked up oil with talks of cuts it rose quickly. There are times that money can preceed the news, but most times it follows.

That's what makes a market. Some believe all the bad news is baked in and others don't. Interesting to see if $30 holds at least for now

I would be careful with this $30 level. You would rather be a little late than way too early