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Thanks for the advice. So you would tend to look more at the $gold chart and trade GLD or the 2x gold etf?
BTW - any thoughts on IMF's sale of 400 tons?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/07/news/companies/IMF_gold.ap/index.htm?section=money_latest
Opps... Didn't realize DZZ was for 2x short Gold continous contracts and not for the actual miners. Do you know of any 2x etf miners for $HUI or $XAU?
CJ,
Thought I'd ask what your thoughts are on Gold. Gold's candle looks pretty bad, and looks to be having a hard time getting pass the 50MA. ST/Interim Term would you think it's a good idea to get into some DZZ (Gold 2X short)?
I still think long-term gold will do well, I'm just not sure that it's bottomed yet.
NM, can you update your S/R/Pivot Point table?
Last one shows up to R8. Thanks.
R8, 47.4, 10%
R7, 46.86, 8.75%, Final OE High Target
R6, 46.32, 7.5%, Expect to tag wk3?
R5, 45.78, 6.25%, Expect to tag wk3, Bingo – EARLY, tagged 02Apr?
R4, 45.24, 5%, Expect to tag wk2, Bingo, tagged 01Apr?
R3, 44.71, 3.75%, Expect to tag wk2? Whatda, da-Boyz tagged 24Mar, Serious Upward MoJo here People!
R2, 44.17, 2.5%, Expect to tag 25Mar? Wowza, already tagged 24Mar, WooHoo!
R1, 43.63, 1.25%, Expect to tag 24Mar? Boom – dare it is, tagged 24Mar!
Pivot, 43.09, 0.0%
S1, 42.55, -1.25%, Expected to be the Low of the OE Period?
S2, 42.01, -2.5%
S3, 41.47, -3.75%
S4, 40.94, -5%
S5, 40.4, -6.25%
S6, 39.86, -7.5%
S7, 39.32, -8.75%
S8, 38.78, -10%
OT: Thanks for including all the services that you get from higher taxes. I too am an American; although I sometimes wonder why I need or should need to work 60-70 hour/weeks on salary, and get 2 weeks of vacation/year and hardly get to use them.
It's funny I thought about moving to Norway or Ireland at one time for work but changed my mind.
A couple of my friends worked for France Telecom in the U.S. and they also got 5 weeks of vacation.
Gleno, I was thinking the same thing after I saw this article from CarribeanJim.
It almost makes me want to move from Seattle up to B.C. At least you get more services from the taxes that you pay. The chart appears to be just Fed/Income Tax and doesn't include state, local, and all the other taxes such as gas and sin taxes such as alcohol and cigarettes (good thing I don't drink much or smoke). WA has the highest sin taxes and people say it's unfair here cause it affects poor people more than affluent people which is very regressive in thinking. (I say if you can't afford food on the table or clothes for you kids should you really be killing yourself with booze and smokes and popping out 10 kids?)
Link to: "The best and worst states for taxes"
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/TheBestAndWorstStatesForTaxes.aspx?page=2
Link to CJ's Post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27836840
Tax Burden Worldwide
PAYING TAXES is, for most people, both unavoidable and irksome. But how much hard-earned pay is taken by governments varies considerably across the world. Among the rich countries of the OECD, Germans shell out the most, with a worker earning an average income giving 43% of their gross pay to the state, with nearly half of that going towards social security. Workers in Poland hand over nearly 25% of their wages to social security; whereas Australians pay nothing at all directly. Mexicans and South Koreans enjoy the lightest taxation by some way.
Foot, can you (edited - please, I know you're a busy guy) give an AB-CD update on the $SPX? Looking at the 60min chart it looks like possibly 1420?
BTW - on the 60min chart, $NDX filled the gap on 3/26. $NDX 1900 looks like tough Rez. There is also one gap left to fill from 1/3/08 at about 2040ish. That may be a tough gap to fill.
Foot, the 60min $SPX looks like a bull flag. May be I think positively too often, sort of the anti-thesis of Gleno.
The 60min $NDX looks like a bull pennant. I
Your yen chart has been going back up. I guess that means Gold, and Oil is gonna go back up with the Euro. Dollar is dropping again to retest the lows? This sure doesn't look good for the U.S. Stock market.
$XAU bouncing off the 200MA (Let's see what happens at the 50MA.)
Foot,
Money pump has been almost off the charts. So probably, up into the end of Month/ToM. Then down in April/May only for a turn up on 6/7 with the bradley Sideograph. When all the rebate checks hit in May people will be spending end of May early June.
Foot, I'm not sure I totally understand that chart. The inverted yield curve signals a recession coming. But the current close of .19 is even lower than in 2004. Does that mean we have bottomed or is this uncharted territory?
Foot, I thought most brokers are SPIC insured. I could be wrong. May be it's just only a select few. "SIPC protects securities customers of its members up to $500,000 (including $100,000 for claims for cash). Explanatory brochure available upon request or at www.sipc.org."
Thanks. Strange I was revewing the charts that I put up and it doesn't show the BBs and price labels. But I see what you mean.
Dan,
You're a candle guru right? We have a spinning top on the NDX and SPX. RUT looks like a DOJI and MID and INDU may not qualify as a spinning top. Anyhow, I thought spinning tops and DOJIs were major indecision by bull/bear. However, if the spinning top or DOJI occurs during a downtrend or an uptrend and the candle is out of the Bollingers Band there is a chance that a trend reversal is at hand?
I'd be a little more positive of a trend reversal if the MACD-D or Stochastic was crossing up and not down. I guess we'll find out next week when BX and a few REITs reports next week, should definitely make next week interesting.
Foot, Money Pump is huge the past 3 days. Nasty (NDX) is still in that symmetrical triangle until it breaks 1825ish.
Foot,
I hope you're doing well. Been traveling for work and living out of my suitcase for the past 2 1/2 weeks. I'll be flying out again on President's day for a week.
Nasdaq new highs sure looks like a bottom. 4 new highs in January and now 7 new highs in Feb? From 2000 - 2007, we've bounced from the 5-8 level. In addition, the fed is aggressively cutting, and pumping lots of money as well. That money has to go somewhere right?
May be Sideways/neutral for a couple more weeks with the triangle pattern then we start turning up. The Brad turn date is in 3 weeks.
Yeah... I'm a little worried about Citibank earnings before the opening bell as well as Bankcorp.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080115.html
Citibank may write-down $24 Billion and cut 24K jobs! If it's more than it could be bad news. But may be this is all priced in?
http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingFinancial/idUSN1423331720080114
More on the AAII. This time the Bearish AAII:
Bears Exceed Bulls by Most in 17 Years, Investor Poll Says
"The number of individual investors who are bearish on U.S. equities exceeds those who are bullish by the most since November 1990, a signal to some investors that stocks may be poised to rebound."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25900637
"As a contrary indicator, when the ratios exceed the upper red lines, then that's an indication that individual investors are too bullish on the market, and we should be watching for a potential decline. Conversely, when the ratios drop below the lower green bands, then we know that folks are overly pessimistic and a market rally is more likely to ensue.
In other words, we should expect a reading under 41% or over 81% approximately 13 times per year. Since such a reading would be relatively unusual, it suggests that we may be seeing an unsustainable trend. These figures assume a normal distribution curve."
12:25 pm : Market spikes as Bernanke statements come across the wires indicating future rate cuts. Briefing.com will provide a full update at the bottom of the hour.DJ30 +120.95 NASDAQ +16.33 SP500 +10.16
Need a new brokerage account. So I currently use Etrade and have 50% of my assets in them. I also have Scottrade and 401Ks with other companies. But, I am sort of scared about all of this Bankruptcy talks and how etrade in 2 months lost $30 billion in accounts due to people leaving for other brokerages. The most fearful part is not being able to get my money back through SPIC or FDIC, or even having your account become frozen until a new company acquires Etrade or all of this bankruptcy matter is sorted out.
I am looking to switch to another brokerage account. My dad has Schwab and hates them. He prefers Scottrade over Schwab. Bank of America is where my checking acct is and Bank of America states that they have $0 commissions for less than 30 trades per month. It's $5 for commissions if you are an active trader trading more than 30 trades/month. All you need is a minimum of $25K in the account. Has anyone used Bank of America?
Any brokers they would like to recommend with cheap commissions? There's a couple for $3.95 like Glendale and Marsco but I don't know if I trust them per se.
http://www.bankofamerica.com/investing/index.cfm?cm_sp=BAI-SD-_-DDT-_-sd-general
Foot thanks for the PM. Have a good New Year!
Foot... since I'm not sure which side of the fence to be on, I decided to close most of my positions in all accounts. Only holding QLD and international stuff.
Sold all my small cap stocks. Still holding MVV and QLD. 60 min MACD is starting to cross up for all indexes. Will wait 10-15mins before the close to decide whether to hold or to sell.
Omandan... Actually, it looks like they are rallying the 3 worst sectors! (Banks/Financials, Retail, and Home Builders)
XLF, RLX, and XHB!
Looks like they are trying to rally the banks today.
Foot,
Looking at the COT report, Commercials is still Bullish NDX and DJIA but have been less bullish in the NDX in recent weeks. SPX is at 49%, a bullish a drop as well in past couple of weeks. On another note, small retailers have been bullish and picking up the slack. (Something we don't want to be is the same side as the small speculators). This doesn't really bode well for the new year. I'm going to try to get mostly into a cash position and out of my long positions in any U.S. stocks/equities end of day and figure out what to do next year. Keeping European/Asian funds for now.
SPX, NDX, DJIA all looks neutral at the moment with a symmetrical triangle. (Edited - on a Daily time frame).
NDX - a drop in the past 3 weeks from 57% bullish to 53%.
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/ND.png
SPX - a drop from 53% to 49%
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
DJ - an increase from 54% to 65%
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/DJ.png
Foot, that makes a lot of sense. Not looking good for the bullwinkle right now.
Probably flat/slightly up 12/31?? Then a sell off Interim Term to start the new year?
R3 NDX - 4.7
CBOE
Nasdaq 100 Index - (NDX)
Volume Call Put
1,890 8,891
TJ, are you referring to CMF for money flow or some other money flow indicator? Cause they all look positive on SPY, IWM, QQQQ, and DIA since 12/18.
$RUT has recently broken past recent highs. Let's see if $NDX can get past 2150 in the next day or two. That would definitely confirm the next up leg to this rally. $SPX is still weak with the banking/housing issues. I find it interesting that they are rallying the small caps before the end of the year. (edited - these are all from the 60min time frame.)
Gleno,
Is the January effect that well known that now it's in wikipedia?
Wikipedia's brief definition of the January Effect is below:
The January Effect (sometimes called "year-end effect") is a calendar effect wherein stocks, especially small-cap stocks, have historically tended to rise markedly in price during the period starting on the last day of December and ending on the fifth trading day of January. This effect is owed to year-end selling to create tax losses, recognize capital gains, effect portfolio window dressing, or raise holiday cash. Because such selling depresses the stocks but has nothing to do with their fundamental worth, bargain hunters quickly buy in, causing the January rally. The Incredible January Effect by Robert Haugen in an authoritative text describing the January effect.
Foot, $SPX, AB=CD Measured Move?
A= 11/26 Low - 1406
B= 12/11 High - 1523.57
C= 12/18 Recent Low - 1435.65
D= ??/?? Next High - 1553.12
B-A = 117.57
C+117.57 = 1553.12
BTW - Merry Xmas and thanks for the help and all the charts you post.
Foot, those are good points. Thanks for the reply.
I guess I'll keep an eye on XLF around the 26-29 range and see how it plays out. You're right, it could be dead money for months to come.
Foot, What do you think about the BKX?
BKX looks like it's starting to bottom out. Even all the bad press and write downs from JPM and Bear Sterns didn't cause a big drop in the index. Do you think the people who are short BKX is starting to get frustrated/nervous?
Kingcambo's Interim-term thoughts... Don't know if you remember Kingcambo. He use to be on the clearstation spy board a lot
http://www.kingcambo.com/traders/897939
Also... 401K deposits coming up on 12/14 or 12/17 depending on pay cycle.
Nah... Scam didn't make that call. It's another person's article he put up. I don't know if it's his way of being sarcastic.
Some of his posts show that we've hit resistance on the SPX. Others show the Santa Claus Rally. So if I had to guess... Possibly short-term down and then rally?
Foot, was looking at this $USD chart this morning. Doesn't look good being rejected at the 50 MA.
Home for just today. Then back out the door tomorrow morning for another week on the road. It makes it hard for me to do some x-mas shopping traveling two weeks back to back. LOL... I'm not helping towards retail sales/consumer spending.
AAII Sentiment:
Maybe the high is in when this reverses?
BTW- here's a link to Bearish% description.
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/surveys_aaii_description.htm
Foot, from your inverse H+S, the target looks like it could go to 1560. 1540 is a lot of rez so, I understand why you marked that number. But, 1560ish is the old triple top. The market popped during the rate cut around 10/30 or was that 10/31 and then the markets got whacked from behind with a baseball bat.
Been traveling too much and nervous about the day after Fed stuff. I may take some longs off the table (50%) tomorrow or Monday and let the rest ride. But will have to use limit orders and do it the old school way since I'll be headed to TX all next week w/ no internet access. In CA right now til Friday night.
Gleno,
My wife and I laughed at the news report. Back in Montgomery County, MD, they usually have a crew of 200 trucks out by now sanding. Over here they said they will get a crew of 15 trucks out for the county. At that point, why bother? I live downtown and there were barely any cars out late afternoon. So I believe you when you say the word "paralyzed". I just hope when that happens I'm out at the ski slopes.
Foot, sucking air may be. But, the bias for xmas/new years is up and then probably a big whack job after 1/2008.
I just told Denmo that in Seattle it's snowing too. People who live here tell me it never snows in Seattle. The lows in the winter is normally 40. Currently 32 and snowing a lot.
I think that it's a crock that Al Gore got the Nobel Peace prize. What type of peace work did he do? He's the biggest liar with his inconvenient lie and his humongous mansion spewing all sorts of greenhouse gas in order to heat it. I can't believe he nearly pays as much in Electricity/Nat Gas as the average person gets paid in the U.S.
"Gore's extravagant energy use does not stop at his electric bill. Natural gas bills for Gore's mansion and guest house averaged $1,080 per month last year.
"As the spokesman of choice for the global warming movement, Al Gore has to be willing to walk the walk, not just talk the talk, when it comes to home energy use," said Tennessee Center for Policy Research President Drew Johnson.
In total, Gore paid nearly $30,000 in combined electricity and natural gas bills for his Nashville estate in 2006."