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And just do you think paid for those benchmarks? I'll wait for someone slightly more unbiased like Anandtech thank you.
As they said in the 70's INTC lies like a rug. But the truth is that INTC probably wouldn't recognize the truth if it bit them in the ass.
It's looking more and more like something like the PathScale and Infiniband solution will dominate the super computer market in a couple of years. Given Opterons uniquely positioned HT this should be great news for AMD.
When is INTC going to realize FSB technology is dead, dead, dead? Again, "Big Iron" is as dead as the dodo being replaced by multiple processors both on and off the processor die connected with high speed PTP topology and scaleable using commodity high speed switches.
I fully expect the INTC buggy whip makers, as usual, to refute the above with their normal putrescent BS, but there are none so blind as those that will not see. It constantly amazes me how inculcated biases can blind some to that which is so obvious.
It's becomming more and more obvious that INTC is seriously outclassed in ideas, something that won't be solved for a very long time, if ever. The best INTC can do is try to copy everything AMD does and pray for a miracle.
Ok, so you see this as more of a supply thing than a demand thing. My feeling is that a decision was made to evenly ramp 90 nm over 05, something Jerry wasn't too happy with, probably in an attempt to better match supply and demand (not create any bubbles). However, I doubt the plan will work. What we may be now seeing is the first glimpses of an AMD inability to supply the market that may exist all next year.
It looks like AMD is trying shift more production to 64 bit chips, but there are limits as to how much of this AMD can do. Next quarter is usually slower than q4 and q2 slower than q1 so there should be some respite, but if MSFT comes out with its' 64b O/Ses in March the respite may prove ephemeral.
On another subject, considering the huge move yesterday, it's kind of surprising the way the stock is holding up today. Especially the relative strength with INTC. The price adjustment everyone has been calling/waiting for may also prove fleeting.
Not sure what you mean. Are you saying that AMD is ramping a64 too slowly, AMD is having problems with the conversion, the production plan limits growth, or demand just doesn't warent faster growth?
Software running on the PIC
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687810&tid=amd&sid=4687...
Posting from Anguilla. You east coasters is this in the Caribbean? After subscribing to National Geographic for probably 40+ years or so you would think I would know. There was a great article on Darwin recently.
Anyway we have a PIC user reporting on Yahoo.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687810&tid=amd&sid=4687...
good point. There will be seasonality, but unless the market for PCs goes completely down the toilet AMD should do well as the year of the 64 bit processor evolves.
Well, historically IIRC, April is about when techs start to go into the doldrums. Right now I don't know, silicon estimates seem to be changing faster than silicone estimates in a plastic surgeons office.
If the market looks like it's going to really slow down that would affect my thinking, but for now even in a slow market I expect AMD to be capacity bound during h205.
Yes, flash remains that big black hole. I wish the boards had the kind of information on flash they have on processors. Still, Spansion will have a lot of new initiatives in 05 that could pay off big time. AMD said awhile ago that they now have all the major wireless phone OEMs buying flash from them, except for one and it was expected to join the fray soon. 05 could be a big year for mirrored bit as it finally looks like all the problems have been resolved. I don't expect much from ORNAND in 05, but if that ever picks up it could be a sector killer. From a stock price point of view all ORNAND has to do is look like it could be successful.
While processor estimates are changing daily I haven't heard about any revisions to estimated flash demand so the pricing situation may have just hit a soft spot. In any case AMD's mirrored bit should be competitive with all other NOR offerings and the size of the market should increase in 05.
All in all though I expect 05 to be a processor year with AMD picking up some market share but mainly getting very profitable. And then there's 06, the year of fab36.
If AMD can continue to increase earnings there should be enough hype to keep the price going upward, but then I'm such a pessimist.
GPU vs CPU
From Yahoo
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1388495,00.html
I guess the obvious question is what's going to happen in 4 to 5 months that would change your mind about AMD? That would be the 2nd quarter which is usually the slowest of the year.
While that corresponds with when I expect to see the first signs of AMD shortages showing up that doesn't mean profitablility will stop growing. Do you expect PC or flash sales to drop off a cliff next year?
Keith, awhile ago you sounded like you were contemplating selling some of your AMD shares due to the currency devaluation problems. What ever happened?
The important thing is that changes happen in relative slow motion. What one needs to look at is the slope of the curve, e.g. how well is AMD doing maintaining/increasing its position relative to INTC. While INTC seems to have made some progress in solving its' heating/power usage problems the evidence is that AMD is doing a much better job. Further, this will likely be the case for quite awhile, at least until INTC can get a Dothan type processors to market to replace the P4's. If SSE3 and DDR2 aren't activated in the E0 stepping it's probably because of marketing reasons, or the processors don't need those functions to show clear superiority over Prescott processors.
Being cautious is one thing, but there are much better AMD problems to worry about, like AMD not having enough capacity to meet demand next year. However, I do like your extreme caution so keep posting those trepidations.
Well I don't know how much market research AMD did, but at least a few potential customers must have liked the idea. To me this is a slick,low-cost way to get into the black box market that could evolve into media center products.
From a third world consumer point of view what he/she wants is to be able to surf the web and send/receive EMail right now without the PC hassles.
Another slightly more advanced market might also want to be able to perform Tivo type functions through the same device as well as be able to store/play music. I see no reason why PIC couldn't evolve into such a device. The device could even come with a HD screen, something like a laptop, but with a larger screen. I could see a large market for such machines in both the developing and developed world, but it would have to be very consumer friendly, no hint of a PC inside.
The point is that even if it is a failure there are other ancillary advantages and it costs AMD practically nothing. Low risk possible high reward. Heck the goodwill from 50X15 probably makes the effort worthwhile.
This is in stark contrast to the way INTC chooses to invest your money. How much do you think the LCOS fling cost INTC? It's not that there haven't been lots of things that INTC could have successfully diversified into over the last 10 years. The trouble has been that INTC has consistently opted for the wrong things to invest in, or wasn’t able to bring the idea to profitability. This shows a lack of vision by INTC management and is probably the biggest indictment against B&O.
Yes, it's that Chinese thingy. While it's probably possible to buy a PIC that's not the way these things will be marketed. Think cell phone, you buy the service and get the PIC for free. This sort of financing should have a lot of appeal in 3rd world areas.
The good thing about this product, from an AMD point of view, is that it costs AMD practically nothing and gets the AMD name exposed to customers that will eventually be in the market for a full sized PC. Also, AMD gets to sell a Geode processor and flash memory that it wouldn’t have sold otherwise and probably gets a license fee of some sort also. Because AMD worked with other suppliers and the PIC uses off-the-shelf parts it was possible to create a product for the market in a very short period of time with virtually no development costs.
This sort of product is probably something INTC would resist, unless it takes off of course. It probably would never meet the margin requirements or fit into INTC’s master plan. It’s a nice niche product for an agile AMD that could very well serve as a platform for expansion into a lot of other areas.
It's quite a change. Those of us that have owned AMD for awhile have seen it all, the good, the bad and the ugly. It's nice to see the market assuming that when INTC goes up it must be due to a good market rather than INTC taking sales from AMD.
Probably the biggest change is the newfound respect AMD is getting. No longer INTC's whipping boy, AMD has gone from follower to leader in a remarkably short period of time. You gotta love it. Not that everything is roses, but AMD sure smells a whole lot better than it ever has.
Thanks, the point obviously went over the ites heads. Anyway, I went back and listened to the whole Bob this time. Actually, he is getting better in his presentations as are Hector and Dirk. As usual the quality of the playback was terrible.
There was nothing in Bob's presentation that you could point to and say that's the reason AMD is doing so well, but for anyone that has been listening to these things through the good and the bad the difference is apparent. For one thing the confidence level is as high as I've ever heard. For another, while treating INTC with respect, they clearly don't fear INTC any more. It really is something seeing a small company grow up and exert itself. After all it wasn't that long ago that AMD was basically a one trick pony (desktop). Now to hear Bob talking about competing with INTC in every sector is just amazing.
Yeah, I think we're pretty much in tune with each other. In any case I now have a lot more confidence that AMD's processor business will be very good if not exceptional this q. I was hoping Andy would say more about flash, but he deferred the subject until later. Flash still remains the big hole in AMD's earnings picture. Right now I would be happy with BE, but I hope AMD manages to do at least as well as q3.
You really don't want me to drag out those Yahoo 5-year charts again do you?
Anyway, while the market certainly likes the re-estimated revenues, since as Andy said over and over they're just seasonal, it really just means that INTC screwed up their initial estimates. Actually, I think the revised estimate is a little better that recent seasonality which is no mean feat given INTC's size and market share.
In a good year it's very easy for rats to steal food from other animals. The same may go for AMD, as INTC probably wouldn't miss the ort that could feed AMD for a month. You INTC ites really haven't figured out what kind of animal AMD is yet. Oh well one man's morsel is another's feast.
Not much said in the CC except that INTC underestimated demand, which sort of means that INTC thinks AMD was more accurate in their q4 estimates. However Andy did say towards the end that he didn't think AMD had done better than INTC. Maybe another estimate problem?
Did anyone else hear the same thing? I always have a hard time understanding Andy. Maybe that's a requirement of being a CFO?
I don't know about you trading, but comissions are insignificant to mine.
Yeah, life is one big education. The problem is that by the time you figure out how to play the game you're old. Maybe that's the way the game was designed?
If you used the proceeds to buy AMD you should be up tomorrow, probably not as much as INTC, but up. I've forgotten the exact amount INTC estimated for q4, but I do remember it was considerably less than AMD's estimate on a percentage basis (5%?). AMD could have a very good quarter if they were using the same data as INTC to estimate. Or maybe INTC was just being overly cautious in its' initial estimates?
Judging from the after hour INTC pricing the market liked the INTC news. AMD seems to be getting dragged along.
Looks like crossover will have to wait awhile.
Looks like INTC is adopting AMD tactics, "promise less deliver more". Nice increase, but from rather low initial estimates compared to AMD's.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20041202/bs_nm/tech_intel_...
Them...
Revenue is now expected to come into a range of $9.3 billion to $9.5 billion, compared to an earlier target of $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion. The gross profit margin for the quarter is now seen around 55 percent to 57 percent, from an earlier target of about 56 percent.
yeah, I saw a few crossovers, but it's the final one that counts. AMD was all over the place today which usually indicates a confused market. Hopefully INTC will shed some favorable light on the shape of things. After yesterday and given the market confusion today AMD did very well today.
What was interesting was the lack of confidence in INTC. This could be a win/win for AMD. INTC say things are good and AMD goes up. INTC sas thing are bad and AMD goes up. We'll see.
The last hour seems to be kicking in. This stock really has a head on it. It's almost scary. Every sale seems to be an invitation to buy to someone else.
I guess we'll have to see what INTC says. We're within a few cents of crossing over INTC's price. Looks like it could happen today?
That's better. I missed the start because I was reading Tom's excellent article on DVI. I got worried when AMD started tanking about the time Bob was cut off. Looks like a normal reaction to yesterday’s exuberance.
How much did you hear? They switched to music shortly after I logged in and I got basically nothing. Music continued until the next presentation at which time they switched back to that presenter. This was planned for some reason, not an accident.
Anyone listening to the CC? Seems that CSFB cut us off. I wonder what it is they don't want us to hear. Only elevator music playing.
Good point, I just take all this market share reporting stuff with a few grains of salt. Bottom line all I care about is AMD's bottom line. Still, it gives us something to talk about.
Until fab36 comes online AMD's market share just isn't going to change that much unless overall processor demand goes into the toilet. If demand just grows the expected 5% in 05 AMD isn't going to pick up much market share even at 90nm.
Still, everything above BE is almost pure gravy in a high fixed cost business.
I don't want to nit pick, but .2%. Really, just how confident can they be in those numbers?
Now if they had said that AMD has been working to capture high-end markets at the expense of total units that would make sense. With Hector AMD went from the "volume is the vaccine" mantra to an approach that emphasizes ASPs and higher $ products. This was probably the result of recognition of AMD's capacity limitations as well as an opportunity that presented itself when INTC started having high-end production problems.
Given that capacity limitations and the change in direction it's not surprising that AMD hasn't gained market share. Personally I prefer the way things are going. Higher margins are something I can endorse.
Nope it's my 1st and only language. However, it's been a very long time since 7th grade English. But the possesive pronoun, as I used it seems valid, since I was refering to Tecate, but as I said I could see how it could be taken either way.
Yeah, soybeans have done well due to the blight, and the others due to the energy issue, but these things are primarily timing issues. Energy could have gone up at any time in the last 4 or 5 years and soybeans being infected with that fungus was something only a person bird dogging soybeans would have known. Still, very nice returns. Do you expect these to continue the same pattern next year? What about the prospects for AMD to continue its' growth pattern next year?
Very good post. There certainly is a huge sub-market out there of people that are being under-served as we move irrevocably into the "constantly tuned" age. That's one of the reasons that I think "smarts" in computer/connectivity will only increase in importance.
I see this problem being attacked on a number of levels. PIC is an obvious one, the "universal communicator" is another, and the Media Center is another.
The trend has been to constantly ask our devices to do more and to do it in "human friendly" terms. This dual mandate will assure that the smarts (processors) are only going to get more and more sophisticated.
From my point of view there is so much to do that the processors will have to take on some of the functions that have been done by software in the past. My main reason for saying this is that software development currently takes much longer than hardware, and getting product to market will force the transition.
Anyway, a lot smarter devices will be needed if we are to make them simpler for the consumer.
yeah, the dinosaurs turned to oil in a shorter period of time. 10 years ago INTC was a very different company, I know I owned a lot of INTC stock back then.
In those “yours” I was referring to Tecate(as in she's right); though I can understand how you could have been confused. It could have been read as you are.
A few interesting graphs
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SOXX&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=amd,intc
Me...
Go through the various periods up to 5 years. AMD wins all the way out to and including 5 years. It's noteworthy that while AMD beats the SOXX handily; the SOXX in most cases handily beats INTC.
I included the SOXX because it shows that INTC has been something less than a sterling investment for quite a while now.
Clearly the problems that beset INTC now are not Johnny comes lately issues. However, the market seems to be reacting more to the perceived shortcomings, as reflected in the price, lately.
Good point, but 2k was too painful to forget this soon. Bird dogging this stock still seems the best way to avoid such a fate.
Boards like this one can be excellent sources of information as long as the reader is able to separate truth from fiction.
And this is from someone that works for INTC that has how much experience with SOI. Is it just possible that AMD/IBM may have come up with something INTC doesn't know about SOI. You guys talk about this stuff like it was black and white. Give me a break.
Good point. Like I said the other day, It seems like every time I do an OS upgrade something doesn't work and almost always it's a driver problem.