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Best response to Crutcher's 3/11/2013 blog
"I understand you have some credentials in mathematics, but I do not see any science credentials. That is unfortunate because you need them to understand the technology discovered by Dr. Phillip Thorpe and Peregrine.
Your understanding of p values and statistical significance is also rudimentary at best. I am not going to try to teach you, as it is clear you and your and others like Adam F ( another so called biotech journalist with NO biotech/science credentials) have an agenda to misinform the investing community of the powerful science Peregrine has discovered.
I will a least educate you, in order for your followers not to laugh at future articles, such as this latest one on PPHM, that phase II trials are NOT designed for statistical significance.
PPHM's phase IIb double blinded placebo controlled trial in NSCLC, developed by Dr. Robert Garnick the father of Genentech with 17 drug approvals, was NOT a failure. In fact it did achieve statistical significance before the trial was sabotaged, and even Garnick stated "I have NEVER witnessed a phase II trail that achieved this".
Because it was sabotaged "clear evidence of dose switching" PPHM gave the control group a few patients with the study agent (1mg/kg bavi). This obviously changed the MOS in the control group to increase it from 5.6 months (historical MOS in all trials to date in 2nd line using ONLY doc is about 6 months) to 7.3 months.
This REDUCED the % increase from the bavi 3mg/kg MOS from over 100% to 60%, and with the final censored patients (yes censored patients...you should have done your homework before you write articles) reduced the MOS in the 3mg bavi arm to 11.7 months (the highest EVER reported!)
So you see bavi beat the SOC by 60% with one arm (pun intended) tied behind its back!"
Jim, PPHM can draw volume >60 MILLION in one day
Remember that. It's easy to forget when we're in the doldrums here with 1 million shares trading each day.
You get 60 million trades in one day on good news and you'll have your extra $4 per share.
Post of the month, Biopharm. Great stuff.
There ARE a lot of bashers lined up against Bavi, and I only ask one question. Why? We're a small, small cap biotech among hundreds. Why all the effort and spleen-spilling on PPHM?
I mean, ask yourself REALLY. Why is everyone going berserk over this one drug, Bavi?? I mean, it's one among thousands, and yet so many, many biotech gurus feel compelled to weigh (spit) in.
I remain with my one question: - **WHY** -
Patrick Crutcher's animus against PPHM...
Can anyone explain why this guy seems to have a personal animus against Bavi and PPHM - he cites NONE of the safety data of Bavi, castigates Phase II for not being statistically significant, rejects the second-line data recovery as impossible...etc, etc.
I mean, what gives with this guy?
EBS, correct. Enrollment ended in Sept 2011
i.e. 20 months ago
Biopharm, I've backed you before on this...
There are two cash cows in the medical field:
1 = outpatient surgery
2 = oncology
That's it. That's where hospitals, doctors, surgeons, et. al. make their bread and butter. Chronic disease care, while certainly important, and really the "elephant in the living room," doesn't come close in terms of ROI.
Lung cancer is not just a typical cancer. It is the NUMBER ONE internal organ cancer worldwide (we all know skin cancer is #1 overall.)
That's the valuation we're looking at. I, like you, am not sure everyone "gets" that. If Bavi first-line holds up, and delivers great MOS numbers, then we're sitting on a cash register, plain and simple.
Calling a valuation for what it is, does NOT constitute mad pumping. Cancer isn't going anywhere, and if Bavi is SOC in this space, it's light out. Pure. and. Simple.
Pork, I remember many, many biotech millionaires were made
by ARNA last summer. Many happy posters were sharing screen shots of brokerage balances in excess of $1,000.000.00 And believe me, there were many, many naysayers, complainers, name-callers, gutter snipes, you name it, all trying to convince everyone that ARNA was worthless and would never win its PDUFA date. Well, the shorts and negative-types just kinda slinked away back into their holes after all was said and done, didn't they?
IMHO, PPHM can match, and beat, ARNA's rise. In fact, it already has. The 14 bagger last summer could be repeated.
We need new SOC, P III, BP partner, and Cotara developement. If those pieces fall into place, you'll be pleased.
CP, I like that. Retracements are part of the deal
I guess I'm trying to get my thoughts together, and I appreciate your input. I often remember my father's advice.
Just sit tight.
He lost a ton of his portfolio in 2008, but he didn't sell. Well, as we all know, everything tripled right back up in the ensuing 3-4 years, and now my Dad's portfolio is higher than it was 2008. Much higher. Who took the financial bath in 2008? Yep, exactly. THOSE WHO SOLD AT THE BOTTOM.
Point? My father didn't panic. He kept his cool. And profited.
Excellent point, EBS; you're right. We must get BP on board
to validate, vindicate, and confirm what we're all convinced of here: Bavi definitely has the potential to the next SOC and a key player in oncological imaging.
SOC in a major cancer involves billions of dollars. Biopharm gets unfairly tagged as a pumper for simply stating this fact.
But it's true. Cancer is ridiculously rampant right now. If your drug performs well in this space, evidence-based medicine will DEMAND that it be used. PPHM's market cap will soar. It is not unreasonable to consider this.
That's why I maintain a strong position in PPHH.
Hey, you pick your horse and let her run.
Wook, I like that thought and that's why
I noted that when PPHM moves, it can move VERY quickly. True, if we get good first-line, PIII, and a partner sequentially, then quick decisions will have to be made, indeed.
Examples (hypothetical - I do not own 50,000 shares):
1. Do I sell my 50,000 shares at $7 for a tidy $350,000?
2. Do I hold everything, knowing that, with Bavi vindicated and confirmed, I'm probably looking at 50,000 at $10 for $500,000? (the $150,000 difference is NOT pocket change, at least for me)
3. Do I sell some (never an error to book profits) and hold the rest, looking to hedge a retracement, or profit from higher pps?
I don't think these are just mental exercises. We are in a period of calm right now. That could change very quickly in a rush of excitement.
Everyone has a entrance plan, but far too few think about an exit plan.
GLTAL
Jim, biotech stories need AT LEAST 8-12 months
to play themselves out.
ARNA was 1.30 in March, 2012 and 12.50 in end of July, 2012
ACAD was 1.39 in summer, 2012 and 13.90 two weeks ago
CLSN was 2.10 in summer, 2012 and 9.10 in January, 2013 (before crashing utterly and completely on 1/31/2013)
What's the point? 8-12 months AT LEAST, usually, before anything cool plays out.
Be patient. PPHM's time will come. Be on the boat. Don't miss it.
CP, a few hypotheticals to consider...
I think the general consensus on this Board (I could be mistaken) is that we all expect the NEXT BIG MOVE to be a return to $5 pps via good first-line NSCLC data and approval of P III Bavi.
The question then is, do you sell after this jump, expecting a typical retracement?
Or do you just hold tight and don't look back, knowing that with good data and P3 coming, the pps will sooner or later hit $10?
As other posters have mentioned, the road to $10 will most likely be rough and jagged with lots of pits, valleys, and peaks. Many will not have the stomach for it. They may sell at a nice profit, only to see hundreds of thousands escape their grasp for selling too soon.
Yes, I know you don't count your chickens before they hatch, but as we all know, when PPHM moves, it can move VERY quickly. In the rush of excitement, strategy and judgment may become clouded.
Thoughts?
PPHMownsME, a watched pot never boils
Too many here are driving themselves insane counting pennies up and pennies down. Let the story play itself out. (yeah, yeah, I know it's been a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng story for many)
OK, Wook, not ALL of us speak wookie....
Only Obavi Wan Kenobi and Luke understand your cryto-woof-speak
Lay it on the line.
What's up?
Abe, I see disclaimers on NSCLC second-line (twice) and HER-2 negative breast cancer Phase I.
Sorry, but that's not "everything" and "every inflection point" coming up.
ALL Safe Harbor Statements are bone-chilling.
Every last one. Incredible grasp of the obvious in play here.
Wook, the normal adrenaline dose is 1 (one) mg IV every 3-5 minutes in a CODE BLUE.
You would kill PPHM outright with that dosage of 10 CC.
Therefore, Stand clear! Charge! 300 joules! BA-THUMPF! Epinephrine, 1 mg IV! BA-THUMPF! (Normal Sinus Rhythm)
Doctor, we now have a stock price of $17.87; what do we do now??
DON'T TOUCH THAT DIAL NURSE!!
LOL, haha...
Wook, an unmistakeable surge in the Force
Seems like we sat at $1.25-1.31 FOREVER....
No more.
TDAmeritrade shows NO TRADES after 10:07 a.m.
Hmmmm.....buyout? Hahah...
Same for me; TDAmeritrade shows $1.42 with Volume: N/A
What's up?
ACAD went from $1.39 to $13.90 in 10 months
Why is everyone so impatient around here?
Our day will come!! BTW, you could have bought ACAD for $0.99 pps in May of 2012. A nice 14-bagger....
Now where have I seen a stock like that before?? Hmmmm....
Wook, Wilder conceived of ParSar in 1978 BEFORE computer trading
...un-friggin-believable. He just laid out the math and did it by hand.
(PAR)abolic (S)top (A)nd (R)everse has always been a favorite techno tidbit for me.
May PPHM go parabolic under the stock price!!
EBS, the truck will be backed up soon enough...
That's WTF is going on.
I don't doubt a dip to $1.20 or even $1.00 is coming.
I'm just trying to muster the dry powder to have it ready when it DOES come. And I'm not the only one.
BIG orders are sitting low right now and BIGGER ones will come with a nice dip.
Hope you can muster more dry powdre to take advantage.
Regards,
Joe
CP AND FTM GONE = WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH
A supernova of negativity has infested the Board. Where's CP and FTM when you need them?
Oh yeah. They're on vacation, being patient, INSTEAD OF FREAKING OUT.
I WOULD NOT BE HERE SAVE THE SECOND LINE NSCLC RESULTS
That's it. When Bavi 3mg went against Bavi 1 mg plus placebo and STILL showed 60% improvement in OS, that's when I decided to stay.
Bavi will go to phase III. The stock may go to $2.50 or even $3.00. BTD will get us back to pre-9/24 levels.
Strong partnership or buyout gets us all off the hook.
Everything else is just barnyard hen-clucking.
(And Lord knows there's a lot of it.)
I don't see Faruqi/Faruqi affecting the pps much
Hey, the more eyes on this situation, the better.
Long-term players are familiar with all this, and the pps won't move until first-line comes out.
Everybody take a Valium.
BP's massive liquidity and patent cliff = PPHM $$$
I've held all along that this year's "perfect storm" of factors in Biopharm augurs well for PPHM's future.
Don't kid yourself. If PPHM gets the right price from BP, this company will be SOLD in a heartbeat. Divide whatever number you want by 140 million shares (more with warrants, obviously), and you'll get interesting results.
1 B for the platform/ 140 M = $7.10 pps
2 B for the platform/ 140 M = $14.28 pps
3 B for the platform/ 140 M = $21.43 pps
Take your pick. All IMO and GLTAL, (especially pre-9/24/2012)
PENNY WISE, POUND FOOLISH
When great first-line results come out, the hens in the barnyard will stop squawking about daily pennies, and start talking to VIP bank advisors.
IMO.
CP, I doubt the colleague wrote the obituary, so you are right,
the family wrote it, and most likely he died on Saturday, 3/30/2013 and not Friday, 3/29/2013. I'm sure we'll be hearing from PPHM very soon on all this (as in tomorrow.)
I feel for his family. 61 years old is very young. The world has lost a very bright Brit.
CP, there is often a lag between the death and when an obituary is placed. And errors with dates are common. I am simply relating the date told to me by his colleague. I'm not sure it matters. It was a holiday weekend. Communication channels were not clearly in place.
I enjoy your excellent posting, but I would really not read too much into this. Bavi and PPHM will go on, but obviously, this is a big hit.
Falcon, it appears he died Friday, 3/29/2013,
right at the beginning of the holiday Easter weekend. That could explain a lot about any communication problems. Think about it. EVERYBODY was out of town, traveling, visiting family, etc.
Very sorry about the loss to his family, colleagues, PPHM, and most of all, cancer patients
Correct, Stoneroad, I doubt he was even scheduled
to speak. My, what a loss. His work will go on for him.
Bavi will do him proud.
DID NOT VENTURE TO ASK FOR CAUSE OF DEATH
Look, you can go to the UT-SW Pharm. Dept and look up the phone numbers of his colleagues. I called one, identified myself, stated that I followed his research closely, and asked if indeed he had died.
The professor answered yes, he had died, and thanked me for calling. That was it. I am a responsible poster who is telling you the truth.
Just spoke with one of his colleagues - HE HAS DIED
Just called up a colleague of his at UT-SW and it is CONFIRMED.
Condolences to the family
INSTANT GRATIFICATION TAKES TOO LONG
...around here. Too much over-analysis and micro-analysis.
Take a deep breath. The pps will be there. The drug works. I'm expecting great first-line. But I'm prepared to wait.
GARNICK SPEAKS 3/12/2013 CC
"...as I point out to many people, there are very few and far between Phase II trials that ever show statistical significance and efficacy. That's an absolutely unbelievable hurdle for a Phase II product.
And what you're really looking for is a ability to describe that you do have clinical efficacy. And as Joe had said, showing 11.7 months for the 3-milligram arm and a difference in the pooled dataset for the product of 7.3 months when you combine the control and the placebo, definitely gives you the indication that in overall survival, we have a potentially highly efficacious product."
Too much hand-wringing - the drug WORKS
First-line will blow out all this hand-wringing and we're back to $5.40 and then up from there....
Garnick has confidence in Bavi, so I do, too. "Tremendous potential."
Longs will be rewarded, soon enough. Tek's contest just shows that the stock market moves much slower than everyone hopes. Then, bang! one day, your stock rockets...usually when you're least expecting it.
I had stock in OMPI, but gave up on waiting for a buyout. What happened last week? Buyout and BOOM.
Patience, lads.
IF BAVI BEATS AVASTIN, IT'S LIGHTS OUT
The stock will soar. Partnership done. Buyout end-of-year done. All our patience paid off in spades. Done.
Volgoat, I like the way you think, man.
I agree. I was just low-balling it. I just think many, many people don't realize that Avastin is a monoclonal antibody just like Bavi, and that it does BILLIONS in sales. Bavi showed outstanding results in second-line NSCLC, and if we hadn't had the labeling fiasco, we'd be sitting at $10 right now.
Oh well, patience, brother.
Best,
Joe
Irrational exuberance? Do the Avastin math.
Avastin did $2.5 billion dollars in sales last year. If Bavi beats Avastin, the math is there.
$2500 millions divided by 134 million shares = $18.65 pps. Add speculation, anticipation, multiplier (very conservative), etc. and $50 pps is clearly approachable.
Avastin is a Mab. Bavi is a Mab.
Let's party.
Good luck, Paul.
Joe