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If the NASDAQ closes at 2434 or lower today, then there's about a 99% chance Thursday will be a 'rally' day.
IMO,
df
Yes, that's the way I see it. Financials are toast, imo.
Just like most tech hasn't recovered from the 2000 crash, neither will the financials.
The big damage is yet to come to financials. I believe what we've seen so far is just the 'tip of the iceberg'.
Regional banks, like Fifth Third, are starting to show their troubles.
I guess the only way to play financials on the upside, would be to buy Visa and/or Mastercard. People will always use 'plastic' to get what they need, even though they have no money. :~)
I have the SKF as going to 216.
Damn shame that gap at 84 didn't get filled.
That overhead gap at 134 is about to fill.
89 to 134: That didn't take long .
I'd love to see the XLF rally back to 30 or so. I'd jump all over the SKF, because the XLF is going to 13.61, at least.
Ultimately, I have the XLF going to 3.85
It may not quite get there, but I'd bet 5-6 is in the cards by sometime in 2012.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMR#chart2:symbol=amr;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=uso#chart2:symbol=uso;range=1y;compare=amr;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Kind of. I thought about that myself. But I got stuck in the AAPL trade. I was only going to hold it a few days.
I bought AAPL an hour or so before they announced the new i-phone, hoping for a few days worth of a 'pop'.
Instead, everyone started selling AAPL because they thought Jobs looked sickly and may be terminally ill.
That was ridiculous, so I decided to hold AAPL til the weak hands were out and the stock rebounded. Again, it took longer than I anticipated.
In the meantime, I got a buy signal on the QID, so that's why the overlap. :~(
Re: AMR
If anyone follows this stock, or has any current info concerning it, I'm all ears.
The all-time low for AMR, I have as 1.25 Currently trades around 5.70
Right now, on a monthly basis, I have the lowest figure recorded ever, for my main trading indicator.
AMR is either going under, or it's going to scream to the up-side big time when the oil bubble pops.
AMR may be one you want to keep an eye on, along with crude prices.
JMHO,
df
delete
I'm watching AMR as a short play on crude. If crude goes up to my 'blow-off top' target of 154, then AMR should be at a price that would be a great entry point for a trade, assuming they're still in business, lol!
I don't know if it'll happen that soon. That would be 'in a perfect world'.
My thinking is: Earnings will start being released around the 2nd week of July, which may provide a rally.
I'd like to see this play out before then.
I, too, bought the QID yesterday and today. Average price is 39.
Also, I'm still holding AAPL from 182.
Alright, in case anyone cares :>) I have the NASDAQ going back and re-testing the low @ 2155. I see the NASDAQ stopping at 2219. Possibly by the 4th of July. That's 12 trading days from today.
If 2219 gets hit by then, that would be equel to a 22 point decline each of the 12 days. Now, you know that's not going to happen, but down 40 one day and up 15 the next, well, that's very possible.
Anyhow, that's how I see it as of today. If today's high were to be taken out, then all bets are off.
I'll keep you posted.... ;~)
(PS: This is expiration week, so maybe I'm jumping the gun here, but I don't think so)
That's o.k., it's still an American company.
But longer term
I don't know what that means.... :~)
Well.... at least he drives a Chevy.... :~)
How about using AMR as a way to short oil...?
If crude crashes, the airlines should rally big time. AMR would probably be the one to buy....
just a thought....
AMR
Now, if only we can get a call like that for AAPL...lol....
275 anyone.... lol.....
I think everyone's looking for a crash... so it won't happen now, imo.
Using EW, I've been calling for a 5th wave up, peaking at around 154. Let's see what happens when it gets there.
he cheated...
Of course he did.... he's an Earnhardt... he can't help himself... lol!
Sold the QLD @ 85.80 eom.
I see Jr. finally won one.... running on fumes! Hey .... whatever works.... lol...
Will the market now eat it's own a$$ out?
I'm not sure what that means, but I think the NASADQ is just floundering around. It's best days are behind it. 3600, if we're lucky, before the 'big one' hits in 18-24 months. Then, it's heading for the 600 area. Not a typo, I do mean six hundred.
I just try to play the ETF's both long and short, looking for a trend.
Occassionaly, I buy an individual stock for a trade, like VLNC, SYBD, or AAPL, for instance.
All the talking heads are looking for the financial to make a comeback and lead the markets higher. Ain't gonna happen. They said the same about tech in 2001. I'd love to see the XLF rally to 30 or higher, cause it's going to 13.61, at least. The SKF is a great way to play the downside on financials: -2x the exposure.
GS reporting Monday, could be some fireworks in the financials Monday and/or Tuesday.
I hate to come across so negative, but I just trade the markets as I see'em.
I think the worst thing somebody can be is a perma bull or a perma bear. Don't get stuck only looking for the markets to go one way.
Now, if I can just get out of my AAPL trade.... ;~)
Diesel. Thx for the trade advice.
You're welcome.
I just posted those trades because I think it's only fair that if you post buying poin ts, you should come back and post when you sold and at what price.
Looks to me as the markets could tack on some more up side Monday morning, maybe another 1- 1 1/2%, before running into an overbought situation.
Expiry week.... anything can happen.... could have some big swings.... good for 'trading'.
I'd love to be able to sell the QLD n Monday or Tues, get into the QID, the back into the QLD on Friday.
That's the plan, though 'things' rarely work out as planned.
Gotta be ready.... and I will be....
Have a great weekend.
Anybody home....?
lol!
BTW, sold the VLNC today at 3.46... then it screamed up to 3.60.... oh well, it's due for a pullback next week... ;~)
I stand corrected: I see I actually bought the QLD @ 80.9299!
So, let's just call it 80.93
Couldn'r resist: Bought the QLD @ 80.98
Now, I hope we rally for more than a day on the NASDAQ, because, it's going to 2353, give or take 10 points.
Sold the other QID position @ 41.12 today.
REALLY thinking of going long here, but I'm afarid it may me a one day rally before more 'downside'.
SKF going for that upper gap at 134. Really thought that gap at 84 was going to get filled when the SKF hit that 89 area.
A lot of talking heads are calling for a rebound in financials.
I'd love to see one. I'd be a HUGE buyer of the SKF when that gap at 84 is filled.
It'll take a gigantic rally for the 84 gap to fill. I don't know if the financials can pull it off.
I still have the XLF low as around 13.60 or so.
Still holding the QID (one position). Would like to sell it today. I see a big rally coming starting tomorrow. (possibly later today).
df
Bought AAPL yesterday before the i-phone announcement @ 182.
I'm a little dissapointed that there hasn't been any "up-grades". :>(
A great link. Thank you.
Word is starting to get out.
Anyone buying AAPL today....? Jobs is speaking today at 1 p.m. and many are expecting him to announce the new i-Phone with 3G technology...
Hey, I just ran some nubers on that Bakken oil field reserve.
500 billion barrels of KNOWN RECOVERABLE oil, equel about 60 years of what the U>S> uses. We use about 23-24 million barrels/day.
That field out in Utah_Colorado, would give us another 200-250 year supply of oil.
It's crimminal how congress stands in the way. Talk about crimes against humanity...
Running out of oil... peak oil... what a joke. :~(
I still think crude hits 154.
Also, sold one of my QID positions for about a 5% loss. VLNC just looked too good at 3.18. :>)
more DUG here would make sence, especially if bought near today's low.
Tony, as in NECKCAR.... lol!
I don't know Fletch.... if this is a 'Sell in May, walk away', then I think we'll make a new low. I hope not, but then, it doesn't the mean the new low would be extrordinarily lower.....
Either way, I'll try and play it.
NASDAQ: 2402, give or take 10 points, before a
'bouncy, bouncy'!
Still holding and looking to sell the QID. ; ~ )
Up .10 (2.57%) in afterhours. :>)
Just saw where the crude long term contract for 2016 is $116/bl.
I think some are really going to lose their ass....
It may even go to 15. When bubbles burst and then hit bottom, they have lost 90% of their value.
(That's why I think the NASDAQ's going to around 600 when it finally crashes and bottoms in 5 or so years. I believe that the NASDAQ is in now is a corrective wave 4. Wave 5 down is yet to start. And, that XLF is going to 13, at least. All jmho.)
Hi WAHZ, I was just thinking about the USO and decided to run some numbers.
It looks to me like crude oil is currently in a W5. If that's correct, then I have $138 and some change as the peak for the USO before a MAJOR correction. I think that is equal to crude being about $151/bl.
Here's a profile for the USO in case anyone here is interested.
From Yahoo:
The investment seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil. The fund is nondiversified.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=USO