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Maybe. It's all supply and demand.
Contract news, creates demand.
Dilution creates supply.
Will they dilute with more supply than demand created through contract news and QS investor relations?
D
With the big whacks selling, called the TA. No count today, systems updating. Must be adding shares faster than they can record it.
Hello Irish,
Per their financials they have one contract with Westboy, pg 23.
Per their financials they have plans to install IPTV systems in three major metropolitan hotels, pg. 24. As of December 15, 2010, the first major hotel installation is in progress (Host Philly). The second is presumably Westboy (DT Omaha), though they don't specify this. The third is undisclosed.
Host Philly and the undisclosed planned installs have not yet confirmed a contract. Most believe the Host contract is inevitable.
This is what I am aware of.
GLTU.
D
I asked and explored that option with SH too. Requested a terms proposal of which I never received. He did express that they are open to financing options with any accredited investor.
D
The first observation referenced what the need for cash is now, not necessarily where the wave or ripple of contracts will come from.
After announcement of numerous completion targets since beginning the Host install in December 2010, they have not announced completion of the last 25% of rooms (300). Why not? Because they need cash to complete, IMHO.
Hopefully, per the company's statements, DT Omaha contract is being financed through debt equity not the dilutive forms utilized to date.
It's true that it may not be Host.
Future contracts leading to revenue is the hope of many here, including myself. Hopefully, mitigating some of the damage done to date by heavy dilution.
Nothing wrong with exploring the possibilities nor maintaining a positive outlook. Glad you're back, your posts and use of words keep a smile on my face.
GLTU
D
From all reports the company is not directly selling shares into the market, they would have to register those shares for sale.
Dilution occurs through the cash for convertible notes and 504 financing. Outside party transaction of shares from the company for cash, bypassing restricted status on the 504 shares.
These folks can set their sells high, hold their shares, or sell into the bid if they want.
The MO has been show small orders on the ASK build bidding interest and ask slapping only to find out that the ASK order was really for many more shares than L2 shows. Once they get enough interest and shares bid for they dump large volumes into the bid.
This has been going on for some time now. Keep an eye on it.
IMHO
D
Nic, just wondering why you call it "temporary dilution"?
Right now they need the money to finish Philly Host before they will get a wave or a ripple of contracts. IMHO.
Of course, they could be using the funds to travel to the far off resorts that they want to pursue. A little mixing of business and pleasure? LOL.
D
Could be, but your predictions lack substantiation and therefore are perceived as nothing more than mindless pumping. IMHO.
I would like to think so too but history tells me different.
D
504's @ 5% is 20 mil shares with 400 mil OS. Tivus simply trades shares for cash, 504's sell into market, get cash, provide finance for shares again, rinse and repeat. Therefore divesting to avoid the 5% ownership reporting requirements. Considering there were ~26 noteholders, with 19 of the notes in default, it should not surprise anyone that there are numerous 504 financiers.
Nice volume today but mostly at lows of the day. Volume of buys were not going to push this into 3's, mostly sells into the bid. Typical of 504 sellers, since they get shares for ~.0006 right now they can sell at .001 for a ~67% profit for doing the Tivus laundry.
IMHO
D
There is no way to gauge the success or failure of QS to lure new investors. It could be that without them we would already be in trip 0 land.
I do agree that the amount of compensation does not seem to match results. However, the 12 mil shares they got in lieu of the $5k/mo cash payments ($45k for 9 months) is sinking in value with the rest of us. I'd rather they have the restricted shares than the cash.
IMHO
D
I was in on the CC and know what was stated.
Sure it takes money to make money and they needed(need) money to complete the Philly Host property. Despite the CC announcement, that Host had called Tivus in to move forward with a 12-18 month plan prior to completion of the MOU term of 12 months, the fact is they still need to complete the Philly install.
Consider the 15 mil added to OS at 3 day avg bid price of ~.0012 and discounted 50% = $9,000. This is peanuts! During Q2 the stated need to complete the Philly Host install was ~$400,000. The cash needs are still large and at these prices the dilution heavy.
If their cash needs are $60k then expect another ~100 mil shares added to the OS. If that many shares hit the market at once we will not hold .001. If the cash needs are higher, well, you can figure it out.
IMHO
D
I agree that there was a commitment.
However, SP stated at the CC that the contract was not signed and that they were not complete with the Host MOU install. Am I not to believe SP on the CC?
Sometimes things change and sometimes things take longer than expected and sometimes parties back out on verbal commitments.
Something is going on and the company is not disclosing behind the scenes happenings.
Good or bad, not sure but my instincts are telling me???
D
If Tivus goals are attained, it will happen. Why? Because they aspire to the big boards. No way to get s/p above $1 and hold, not with this many shares and this performance.
I don't know, too many variables but at 2 bil I would think higher.
BTW, who's domino?
D
I agree, just prior to the QS hire, SH indicated to me that he would be happy with an OS of 100-150 mil. Clearly, the thought was that QS would mop up shares but the impact of the dilution was underestimated.
D
Wants to but right now carrying the weight of too many shares in too short a time, with more to come.
IMHO
D
Really? Redux.
You say the silliest things.
D
Have you not been paying attention? When news hits we go down. That's standard MO for Tivus. LOL.
D
Please take another 50 mil at the ask and I will help out too.
D
Fairway, I hear you. It appears the jokes on us.
D
There's no race to 5000 rooms, they are struggling to complete Host Philly and 1,200 rooms with 504 financing which is killing the share structure.
Besides installs are being done by subcontractors/partners. There is no reason the executive team can't be out there selling the Tivus system at the same time installs are ocurring. Unless demand is waiting on the sidelines for Host to finally commit.
IMHO
D
Unfortunately, Tivus still needs the cash to finish Host Philly.
DT Omaha is supposed to be debt financed.
At the CC all we were supposed to be waiting for is the attorneys to fine tune the legaleze of the Host Philly contract. I know attorneys can take time but my gosh, they must come from the same group doing the audit.
IMHO.
D
Averaging about 100 mil a month on 8-5-11 OS was 197,462,349
More than doubled the OS in two months.
We need more friends here to absorb those shares.
D
brian, no doubt many others share the same feelings.
gltu
D
Contracts will trump dilution only if they exceed the current expectations by a substantial amount. But then again it depends how much dilution occurs.
Philly Host won't do anything, everyone already expects that. Same with DT Omaha and the third to be announced.
Conversion of Host MOU and 12-18 month rollout plan on 10-20 units to start might be substantial enough.
MGM contract for all its' Vegas properties might do it.
Wynn or LVSands with their Macaw projects might do it.
Right now we're heading towards an OS of 800 mil+ fully diluted so for the contracts to have a lasting impact they'll need to come in big numbers and in waves.
All IMHO.
D
Diltion trumps charts. IMHO
OS = 403,321,424
+ 15 mil, looks like many more to come.
Hello Irish, the business side of Tivus is still alive and thus gives way to hope.
The stock s/p is in a downward spiral due to toxic financing and could kill the company but has not at this point.
Yes, there are stocks which have come back from the dead.
D
PM75, lost the response and posted incomplete.
Savior could be new chain, international chain, Vegas conglomerate, Host acceptance of the 12-18 month Tivus buildout proposal. Anything that stimulates the story beyond what they have previously announce but with substance to be sustaining. A $100 mil contract with Host could do that.
Positive news and biz dev stimulates interest and interest translates to buying demand. The buying demand has to exceed supply of shares at any given time to move s/p upwards.
The impact to convertibles and 504's is that a higher s/p translates to reduced dilution since the conversion rate and financing through 504s is tied directly to the average retail bid price. It does not necessarily reduce the cash needs nor current obligations. In fact, added business will require increased operational and support funding.
Refinancing or investment through a long term investor who will help see Tivus through the development stage of business into revenue would have the potential to take out all convertibles, and 504 needs and thus eliminate or reduce the undetermined amount of dilution we are facing. Stability would be the goal through reducing or deferring the dilution/supply of shares currently killing the s/p. Perhaps this person or entity does not exist but if one believes the business side, the names (Host and Marriotts), MOU, contracts, etc then it is hard to see why someone wouldn't step in or step up.
Again, just my opinions and thoughts. GLTU.
D
PM75,
Major could be announcing
Ichi, your point/counterpoint is very true.
There are two sides to the story.
The business side and the stock side.
Business side = hope and opportunity.
Stock side = stinky pinky s/p action.
IMHO.
D
There is no floor in convertible note financing. The scenario Tivus presents is just an example of the variables contributing to derivative liabilities.
D
Could be but not likely till after the insiders get out of their convertible positions. Management can always bonus themselves new shares common or preferred to make up their position after an RS. IMHO.
R3, you know that I as well as many others here have shared the same optimism as you regarding Tivus. I believe in the technology and have held my core shares for that reason alone.
However, I have to disagree that despite the bad economic times and rotten financing options, Tivus missed the mark in anticipating and planning their financial needs. This has contributed substantially to the current dillemma they face and will continue to face.
Simply put, with over $600k in convertible notes outstanding at a current s/p of .0012 and a 50% discount/.0006 as terms of those notes, this financing alone stands to add 1 billion new shares to the O/S at today's s/p. If they convert at a lower s/p then the added share count will be over 1 bil. This means major dumpage will occur between .0006 and .0012.
In addition, the warrants attached to these notes will allow exercise at .0009 or 150% of the conversion price of .0006. This will add another ~667 million shares if those warrants ever find themselves in the money. Meaning there will be very strong resistance somewhere in the .0012-.002 range as they dump those shares.
This will be a continuing trend into trip 0's as I see it. The only savior is major contract or refinancing announcements.
Announcing plans for an uplist at this point as well as the audit is almost silly and fruitless.
Tivus is in a tailspin and the farther they let this fall, the harder it will be to restore faith and get back on track.
Another share restructure beyond the recent 1 bil revised AS looks highly probable according to my math.
Shareholders here should be dissappointed, should speak up and should demand answers. Those who suggest that the dissapointed sell and liquidate may get their wish and another downturn in s/p. I agree dumping here is crazy and this is all a gamble. A gamble which I took upon myself and blame no one for. The upside is diminishing with the s/p and Tivus needs to pull an Orca out of their hat cuz a rabbit just won't do it at this time.
For those playing the charts, the dilutive supply of shares override prevailing chart plays. There is just to much supply and too little demand for Tivus shares right now.
As always, do your own DD and don't listen to me. Its all just my opinions. GLTA
D
Another week, another 11 mil.
OS = 388,321,424
At current pace of drop, we might be looking at another Share Restructuring before the EOY.
GLTA
D
379,321,424 OS. Just keeps climbing, won't stop till well over 500 mil. Just disgusting better hope for some news soon. IMHO
D
To be fair there are no conclusive metrics either way to gauge success or not of the investor awareness program.
I don't like the QS arrangement any more than most and agree they are getting paid more than the results seem to show. However, Tivus is the one who controls who, when and how much to pay for an investor awareness program.
IMHO, it is a defensive move that Tivus felt compelled to engage as the convertibles and 504 financing dilution started to weigh heavily on s/p in fall 2010.
For those who were here last fall, you might recall other stock promotion sites engaged to pump Tivus in August/September and again at the November CC. There is no question in my mind that management is fully aware that the supply of financing shares needs to be absorbed and with intention, tries to bring in new money at each major news announcement, to soften the downward trend caused by dilution.
Unfortunately, management did not anticipate the spiral effect of their financing. Now, they are compounding the problem with additional shares issued for, at best, nominally effective programs and services to offset this problem. This is a company/management problem, not the promo company's.
All IMHO. GLTA
D
The flip side perspective might be what if QS was not hired?
- Would we be in trip 0's?
- Did they actually help bring in new investors to absorb the dilutive shares? It's possible.
- If they did help bring in new investors did they help keep the s/p propped up in double 0's? If that can be called being propped up?
The bottom line is that the trend is caused by the company not by QS. It is the dilutive financing causing more SUPPLY OF TIVUS SHARES than demand can support, including demand from any investor awareness program (QS or others).
IMHO.
D