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They also said a PR on a new deal would come before the fins...so tomorrow sounds good as ever for that!
It'll get there on fundamentals, it just might take some more time. I've heard others confirm my suspicions lately that $AXXA seems to be one of the most heavily shorted/manipulated tickers in the OTC, which I'm sure stems from the naked shorting debacle last year during the merger. We are much stronger now and there will be major corrections coming to the upside. Will likely take some cojones to weather the volatility and manipulation, however.
Bet we'll test the .0325 - .0375 resistance pretty quick and with enough volume maybes the .05s. Its going to take many millions in volume to get to .10+, in my opnion. But we'll churn our way there :)
It's a non-public post for a reason
Nice projection, very possible! I like to think a little more conservative so I'd say $800k-$1mm revs with $40mm assets and $19mm liabilities. Which would put book at a little more than double the value of the last quarterly. Based on my own opinion of course.
Very valid points. But they're not the ONLY ways to drive long term value, in my opinion. I think its more nuanced than the hard lines you're drawing. Don't miss the bigger narrative.
1. Reduce the OS / 2. Share buyback.
I've received email responses and I think there was a reply on Twitter as well - it's not part of the company's strategy AT THIS TIME. The current strategy is to heavily acquire undervalued assets providing multiple revenue streams that can grow over time. This current phase of acquisition can require cash, debt, and equity financing, as the company has told us. Small increases to the OS are worth it if the long term impact can produce many multiples in return. You're smart enough to know where I'm going with this. It's the balance of leveraging time & money for the greatest long term gain.
For example, a share buyback over, say, the next 6 months, would increase the share price without neccesarily changing the business fundamentals/bottom line. Obviously less shares inherently increases the pps, and it would add to shareholder confidence which will increase the price as well. No matter when a buyback occurs, it has diminishing returns (the higher the pps, the more cash it requires to sustain).
Now picture what the company seems to be doing: adding revenue generating assets for set prices that combine multiple funding methods to reduce the company's risk exposure, all while leveraging the potential for uncapped returns over the life of the assets.
3. Now think about how much greater of an impact audited financials will have when there are MILLIONS more in assets than there potentially would have been had cash been used for a share buyback earlier on. Plus audited fins allow for the uplist to QB (or higher) as we know, to become a fully reporting SEC company. Now the company has more options to leverage their cashlow, like share buybacks (via Form 4s), etc. Future scenarios are all my opinion, of course.
The current market cap seems to be WAY under book value (meaning what would be left if tangible assets were sold off and liabilities paid). I've put my money where my mouth is and bought shares at the ask 27 separate times and have a mountain of shares that I'm satisfied with.
Thoughts?
If you email the company, they'll tell you why (hint: cleaning up from prior management)
Yes. I called in Jan and again on April 4th. That's why I've been communicating with Heinl since Jan. Juljana said that the lawyers will be handling my requests now. As I mentioned before, she was not pleased that I uploaded the recording of her without asking permission to do so, and I apologized to her as I could have been more forthcoming and it was not my intention to get her in trouble. She said all was good, but the information flow from her (to me, at least) has stopped.
In April, I asked for an update since its been a year that the contract was signed, and she was friendly but short, and mentioned that certain things weren't supposed to happen until after the first year anyway. Was rather casual about it, so it is my opinion not to read too much into it. I have learned my limitations and know nothing more than has already been shared.
Looks pretty thin these days!
Good point, didn't think about that
OTC Markets still shows 286 mil OS as of yesterday. Since there's an equity component to the financing deal, I thought maybe they would have issued some of the remaining 13.7 mil if financing had already closed, however I'm guessing they'll likely dilute from their own holdings since there's not much left til a maxed out AS.
Well it wouldn't be for the annual report that's about to be dropped since that's for period ending Dec 31st. I took "next quarter" to mean the Q1 report for the period ending June 30th because they're still in Q1 currently. Either way, revenue growth exceeding expectations is what we like to hear!
I literally got the same response. Good to see consistency.
Thinking about the Q2 report for period ending Sept is what really gets me excited! By that time, the acquisitions from Dec-March will have 3ish quarters of generating revs and the $120 mm deals will have 1-2. Think about THAT.
Agreed. Referencing that forecast hinders credibility.
“Qualifications for the Pink Current Information Tier
Companies that make the information described below publicly available on a timely basis (90 days after fiscal year end for Annual Reports; 45 days after each fiscal quarter end for Quarterly Reports) may qualify for the Current Information Tier.”
https://www.otcmarkets.com/files/OTCPinkGuidelines.docx
“Exxe’s financials grew exponentially with strong assets and diversified revenue streams which we intend to report shortly, ahead of the schedule.”
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AXXA/news/Exxe-Group-Kicks-off-2019-with-Three-New-Projects-in-the-area-of-Environmental-Responsibility-Implementing-A-Series-of-N?id=225993
At the last share count we did in Dec 2017, I received word from 24 shareholders who collectively held 11.4 million shares. I'm sure there were many who either didn't see the board around that time to send me their numbers or didn't feel comfortable sharing. Plus any shares accumulated by longs in the last 16 months, which we know there have been many. Plus if any of the friends in your circle aren't included in the 2017 count already...
40 mil Seawind shares (Ecoserve & Yellowfeather) went back to Falak. Viewpoint I assume to be Hany's that either were all/partially sold into the market, or bought back by Falak for I would imagine pennies on the dollar, or perhaps Hany still has them if neither scenario occurred. Viewpoint was tied to Swiss companies including Falak Investments AG, which, despite the name, was controlled by Hany. Depending on why & when the Falak/Hany relationship went south could help explain who has the shares. But good luck finding out the dirty laundry of parties that wont even air their clean laundry haha.
Julius Baer was just holding those 60 for multiple entities - the 3 entities I referenced in that last post: Yellowfeather, Rudana original, and Viewpoint. So if Falak got 51 mil of those, you're in essence saying Hany's & Rudana's shares (Rudana original & Viewpoint) all belong to Falak in addition to the 20 mil Yellowfeather he DID buy off market. Very plausible, but I'm just saying I'd rather assume Hany got/tried to get paid for his services by selling shares on the market rather than back to Falak off market for a substantial discount.
I’m with you, not 60 mil in that time period. But based on those volume numbers 2011 to now (86.4 million traded), it looks feasible to me that 40 million could have been sold into the float over time. That is, 20.4 original Rudana plus 19.6 Viewpoint.
Eccoserve 20 mil was already broken out from Julius Baer, so not part of that 60 mil. And we know Yellowfeather 20 mil was bought by Falak also. Those two groups are the Seawind shares. The two other groups of that 60.1 mil are what I’m either not reading correctly from the filings, or I don’t have first hand accounts to support Falak buying them back. Which is why I was wondering, in the worst-case scenario, could that Viewpoint 19.6 and the original Rudana 20.4 have been sold into the float?
I mean, did I miss that Falak got Rudana’s shares out of bankruptcy (which def could have happened)? And it was Hany (not Falak) that set up the Seawind merger and was Viewpoint, right? Those are the assumptions I’m working within.
As for how it trades, I would agree with you. That’s why I was saying perhaps longs hold way more shares collectively than we think, so it trades as if the float was way lower (we all have our sells set high, MMs sell short, etc).
We know Hany had some sort of a falling out with Falak. I’m reading between the lines on first hand accounts, and believe that AT LEAST those 15 million for Capital Trust are still in limbo due to litigation (which could be finished by now, I suppose). But I’m guessing it’s still ongoing, which could be one of the reasons they haven’t filed the 10k and subsequent reports - without a resolution, they would have to disclose just how bad Hany screwed them and how much money he lost for them. Again, no way to prove this, but rather reading between the lines.
And what about Viewpoint? Hany controlled those just like he did the Rudana shares, correct? It’s tough to know if Hany controlled shares on behalf of Falak, on behalf of himself, or on behalf of another party. That’s partially why think the float is higher than your calculations - I think he was in control of more shares and sold a lot of them, possibly without permission. Of course I could be wrong. I’m just trying to fill in holes of the narrative with plausible scenarios.
Wow this is really good and easy to read!
Back to the question no one can answer: why ARE they doing this, then? Lol
It could be, I really dont know though. Was said almost as an afterthought, here during April.
A short squeeze will help us make up for the lost years haha. Interesting to see if we make it on the Reg Sho. Personally, I think the float is closer to 30-40 million from Rudana/Hany selling into the float and longs owning millions more collectively than we think.
A fortuitous piece of info came my way that said certain things weren't supposed to happen until after the 1 year mark of the contract signing...and with the way Sharif normally delays the 8ks 1-2 months, I'll stick with June.
If Heinl's been in China and Albania lately, means its getting signed "now" probably, so I'll wager half my shares we don't hear about it til June. Any takers? Haha
DD is dynamic, it changes as time moves. Annual isnt officially due before end of June. But PR said "ahead of schedule." And those of us in contact with the company have heard mention of potential for more things (read: fins) before end of next week. Not guaranteed, but those doing the DD can verify the communication. How's your DD been coming along?
You're a wizard if you can get the signed contract. Would probably tell us why they haven't filed that K or the Qs since.
Yes, when you actually read the bid it’s pretty clear, was a big game changer for me. I’ve tried many ways to get my hands on the signed contract to see numbers, but of course no one from the Ministry will give it out, even after I sent a screen of my shareholdings to prove I was an investor...Falak has them sealed tight.
You know that can have a complicated answer with multiple factors. Stocks go up and down for many reasons. One factor I look at is the "risk premium," or how much of a discount is applied to something's stated/intrinsic value. Rhetorically, how much evidence do you need to have before you make the decision that something is under or overvalued?
Right now, there seems to be not enough buyers aware of this opportunity at the current level of "risk" to move the price out a specific range. Will an annual report showing 4 quarters of revenue growth and major asset aquisitions lower the "risk?" All else equal, when undeniable hard evidence shows up, look out - major corrections to the upside will come!
This is all in my opinion, of course.
It'll take some churning but those focused on the big picture will win. I would imagine somewhere in their algorithms, the MMs have the thrashing they took factored in from last year when they had to make the market with almost no one able to sell. I envision they will take full advantage of every opportunity here, and flippers will not help that. That's my perception, but may not be how it really works. Either way, holding long so all these assets start generating revs is the way to go here!
$.15 for the $120mm projects on BOOK VALUE alone, but likely much more. $.15 is very conservative using a 2:1 asset to liability ratio from the last report. Until we know details of the transactions and see balance sheet, won't know for sure. I like a conservative valuation like book value so if assets were sold off and liabilities paid, what would be left?
120mm - 60mm (est.) = 60mm. Divide that by 399 OS = $.15
Add that to what's already been acquired and I think this could legitimately test the .37 high from last year. $AXXA
It's just using an algorithm likely based on y-o-y increases, using last year's run to .37 and the last few months, etc, to say it would go to X if the increases continued growing at a certain rate or whatever. Great algorithms for stable growth stocks on a regulated exchange, but it really means nothing for us. That's my opinion, of course.
Balluku is really showing she’s on the public opinion side...glad our concession is clean.
https://www.infrastruktura.gov.al/balluku-dhe-klosi-bashkebisedim-me-banoret-anulohet-ndertimi-i-hec-it-ne-kolonje-te-gjirokastres/
“The planned HPP to be built in the Rehovo stream, the Kardhiq River branch in the village of Kolonjë of the Picar administrative unit in Gjirokastra, will not be built. The Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy has decided to suspend the process after the concerns raised by residents about the impact that caused the construction of this work in the area concerned.
Minister Belinda Balluku, Minister of Tourism and Environment, Blendi Klosi, together with MP Flamur Golemi, held a conversation with the inhabitants of Kolonja, following the complaint of the latter in the platform of albania albaniaqëduam.al.
"If you are judged by the way the HPP has been proposed, based on the letters, there are village people who have signed, who have been in the meeting, so 20 have been together and have agreed to do so It becomes. So I'm telling you that this conversation has been done with the people, people have signed, perhaps without knowing what to discuss, perhaps not properly dictated, but I am telling you that this is the case today, and so we are the two ministers here, and MP to do this not only for you here. That this decision is now taken by the Ministry of Energy, but to do it for all of Albania. And people do not have to sign unconsciously, and they have to understand that nowadays are very important things, they are about the life of the village, with the life of the province, "said Minister Klosi.
Minister Balluku on her part assured the residents that the HPP in the Kolonja area will not be built because it conflicts with the requirements of the community, bringing to the attention also the fact that the area in question is an area with great tourist potential.
"This HEC will not be built. The procedure has been suspended so it will not open again. It's canceled. This procedure does not stand anymore because it has been in conflict with community requirements. Of course, water is very important for your village and your village is part of an area that, apart from some of the protected area elements, is part of 100 villages, "Balluku said.
The Minister briefed the residents on the initiative taken by the ministry she leads in terms of the scanning of contracts for all HPPs in the country and where some of them have been canceled. "All HPPs wherever they are, due to multiple complaints and because of the issues I had encountered from the first day on that task, have gone through a full scan. Some of them have been canceled and the HEC we are talking about has passed the scanning and meets the conditions to be canceled, "Balluku said.
Referring to the fact that residents of this area addressed their concerns about the construction of the HPP in the platform of co-governance, the Minister of Infrastructure and Energy said that "it is important that the voice of citizens in this mandate is much stronger and the word Co-governance is not a political propaganda, but it is true. We govern with you. "
The same attitude was also held by Minister Klosi, who promised that along with the Minister of Infrastructure, public hearings with citizens and citizens will continue throughout Albania to punish any environmental crime, which consequently endangers the lives of citizens.”
Of course we don’t know the contract terms that were signed since we haven’t seen it, but we can download the concession and see what timeframe is, assuming they didn’t negotiate a different one.
"It should significantly increase our revenues in 2019.”