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Osprey well stated. I think oil is toppy here based on the chart posted below. Good shot we test toward the lower TL and if that breaks that should confirm a major top...big if yeah i know.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
AJ agree....repositioned in a few longs here based on that chart. I like the fact that we've traded laterally while the short term indicators offset somewhat. I also entered a couple of plays this morning that were at major buy supports....e.g. AAPL gap support, QCOM near the bottom of its right shoulder, etc.
Personally wont short either until we get to/near the 2191 area and even then for a shorter term in and out play.
Lots of small cap semis in nice inverse h/s patterns setting up. Here are a few.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=onnn,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041113,20051113][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=amkr,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041113,20051113][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cmos,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041113,20051113][pb50!b200!f][vc...
AJ lets hope so....my guess is any pullback is shallow in general given all who missed this run. Trapped shorts will also support dips.
Not a bad scalp play at resistance here....looking to reenter a long in VSEA in the high 39's low 40 zone. Looking for 50ish in time. Got back in AAPL today on the test of its lower gap. Mid 40's likely in time.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=aapl,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
QCOM setting up in an inverse H/S Pattern...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qcom,uu[h,a]ehcayiay[d40][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
Jerry getting some mild negative divergences on the 60 minute charts. I expect we'll get a mild pullback and many of the semi's will form bullish handles in the process. A dip will only serve to setup things that much better.
VSEA/KLAC at major pivot points here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=klac,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040215,20051215][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vsea,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041015,20051215][pb50!b200!f][vc...
Nice base in place here on ONNN....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=onnn,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041113,20051113][pb50!b200!f][vc...
AAPL triangle breakout looks headed for 45ish...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=aapl,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
KLAC looks good as well...49 is a major long term downtrend resistance line. If that clears will be off to the races. If this breaks out it projects to the 65 area.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=klac,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040215,20051215][pb50!b200!f][vc...
Also interesting to note that some defensive groups look like they are rolling over....rotation out of these and into tech.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$djushp,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$djuscl,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,...
>>>Sweet stuff indeed, plexxus. As always, your charts and scans are in a class all their own.
I see us grinding higher into Friday or early Monday (8-day fibs off the low), then a 2-day fast dump to test yesterday's lows and various necklines, then a slow 4-5-day consolidation below the Monday highs followed by a move up into the traditionally strong end of month/beginning of month period.
August 9 is a key date, as we've got CSCO and the Fed that day. That would be a good time for a local high followed by a minor correction, then a final move up to an early Sept. high.
I'm looking for a high of 1660 NDX in early August and a low next week of 1534 NDX.
While things are overbought, the breakouts we're seeing would all have to fail for the bears to get their way. I don't really see a good chance of that happening.>>>
AJ agree with your take in general. Our 2191 high for the year on the Comp is likely going to cause some trepidation along the way but we'll deal with that when we get there. Good to see AAPL and AMD kick off tech earnings in a positive way....saw that AVID warned as well.
Good Trading!
>>>Do you find the SWH more reliable than the GSO?
DO you have the list of software stocks in the SWH? Is the weighting within SWH based on market capitalization>>>
Hi Alexander
I watch both but usually just chart the SWH. The GSO looks like its in a bullish inverse h/s pattern as well. Not exactly sure how SWH is weighted and I don't have a list of stocks there. I have favorites such as SYMC MCDTA that I use as proxy's. They are setup similar to the GSO of all things.
Good Trading...!
AJ lots of semi's in long bases here making moves.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cymi,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041115,20051215][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vsea,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041015,20051215][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=diod,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J52886686...
SWH/Software Index also broke out today out of an 11 month triangle/base. Here are a couple plays of interest...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=swh,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][j...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=symc,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041110,20051210][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=mcdta,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041107,20051207][pb50!b200!f][v...
>>>You are getting exuberant again. Seasonality would urge caution.>>>
Not sure I'd bank on the seasonality factor for a couple of reasons....one the seasonality factor didn't work from January through April and two the charts suggest otherwise this year.
VIX was at similar levels back in 1995 and we all know what happened to the VIX once the market broke out of its long term trading range.
Alexander stick with what you see....as you seem to have conviction. I am in agreement with your take based on the charts nothing else.
AJ Oil looks topped short if not longer term here....and historically semi's and oil have traded inverse of one another....expect this to continue. Also with oil likely headed lower the Transports have a good shot of heading higher with todays breakout move.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
Transports falling wedge breakout...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
Looks ripe...minimum upside projected target 2300.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12...
Internets looking bullish here...nice break and reversal re the 50 day to draw in shorts and shake out weak longs.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$dot,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041107,20050707][pb50!b200!f][vc...
Naz looks ready to test 2100 soon...also like the setup in the NDX here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041203,20051203][pb50!b200!b20...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!la...
Looks like potential for some type of H/S pattern here on the SP which targets the 1155-1160 area...problem is in this market intraday patterns lately have not been making their objectives. Lets see if this plays...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][j5020529...
AJ looks like your call may end up being spot on here for 1480 NDX give or take. I agree with your take that the SP 500 and Dow look like they are forming bearish flag patterns and favor another push to a lower low. We got the kick I was looking for in the semi's but that didn't translate into a thing per the broad market.
>>>that chart is showing indeed a sharp turn reversal breakout pattern.
Are they playing wild churning games or is this the real thing? ( there has been heavy trading range churning in SOX for 22 trading days--i need see it close above 440 to believe it. If real, this will make NDX run for a couple weeks.)
SOX is in fact now carrying Nasdaq on its back.>>>
Hi Welles...
Semis are acting best here...whether or not it takes out its downtrendline in the days ahead remains to be seen. The setup on the index gives it as good of a chance as it may get so we'll have to see what the next few days bring. I positioned yesterday in some of the better looking semi patterns so thus far today is working out ok...if 440 breaks we should do well. I understand your caution about 440....im cautious too until it clears.
Here's an update!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
I was taking the width of the triangle at its widest point and adding that to the pivot at 650ish. I often consider the widest part to be a max measurement and "inside" width to be a more conservative/shorter term target for the formation.
AJ don't bring up that 666 #....conjurs up images of a breakdown grrrrrrrrrrrrr!!! <g>
Semi's may give the Nasdaq its best chance of a breakout here. Note the backtest of the 50/200 SMA area and reversal...leaving the stochastic in extreme oversold condition. I think the semi's have a decent shot of finally clearing resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
Also note the breakout and backtest of its longer term downtrendline...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9!l...
11 month triangle breakout in the Russell 2000 group today...pattern measures to 785ish. Mid caps also printing levels not seen since 2001. As the small and mid caps go so has the market off the 2002 lows...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
>>>aj..no religion here but it could be a falling channel>>>
Hi N83....I'll jump in here if you don't mind. I favor it being a bullish falling wedge versus a falling channel based on bullish divergences building under current price lows on the 60 minute. Any pattern can fail and while I wouldnt be surprised to see some very short term further downside I expect upside resolution fairly soon. If there were no technical divergence between price and macd on the 60 minute I'd view it as more of a falling channel.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,2...
FA a number of us here have been tracking that potential Inverse H/S pattern for a while now if you study some recent posts. Here's my view of the current situation per the 6 month.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
Also needs to be taken in the context of the one year chart which is showing showing us a symmetrical triangle pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12...
Both patterns suggest the 2100 area as being a MAJOR pivot point.
It also helps to view the 60 minute charts. Currently the 60 minute NDX, Nasdaq, and QQQQ charts are in falling wedge patterns with bullish divergence forming under recent price lows per the NDX and QQQQ.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qqqq,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,2...
Also if we do get a push down to our SMA's around 2020-2030ish we've got potential for a buy signal to be triggered per our stochastic divergence on that move to a lower low.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ilp14,3,3]...
AJ thanks for all your good work.
Some impressive triangles are now set on the major indices with todays reversal. Looking for a likely move to test the 50/200 SMA area on most before we get a turn back higher.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wlsh,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
The action in the transports was unsettling to say the least.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,...
OGM thanks
You might want to take a look at Page 1 again I posted some nice looking big picture triangles that are setting up on most of the indices with todays reversal. I exited longs once we tailed off 2100 again for the umpteenth time and went short a couple of positions including SPY. I'm expecting a move to test our 50/200 day areas. A successful hold there or just above would get me back on the long side. Very bearish stick today in the transports as it took out a key uptrendline with another not far below current levels. Check out the yearly charts below.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
P/S I really dont consider myself a bull or bear but rather base my trades on what I see in the charts. These triangles whatever way they break will need to be respected.
Good Trades to you.
landm19...I like the setup and went long yesterday after hours but exited today to play it safe at 30.50 mid day once we tailed off 2100. I'll keep it on watch once this corrective phase passes.
Here's my setups page. Update the favorites list nightly. Stock setups are posted on pages 6-20. Just posted SINA today as it looks ready.
Good Trading!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
NSM looks like a cup/handle or ascending triangle setting up on the daily.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nsm,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J52887876,...
NTES has no overhead until the 68-70 area....very bullish inverse h/s breakout last week. Pattern projects to 70ish.
Hi Don
Keep watch on these two charts. First crude which if that $60 resistance line holds and we get a reversal I expect the $TRAN to break out of its symmetrical triangle. If $60 clears the transports and UPS may stay range bound. Specifically per UPS I like it here as its forming a nice base and is in a triangle and just above its uptrendline...also the past two price lows it put in some bullish divergence.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ups,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20041119,20050619][pb50!b200!f][vc6...
Lets keep watch on this....major resistance line at $60ish for crude.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
AJ two key groups to watch next week include the transports and semi's based on their large bases in place. Although many would argue the Transports are lagging I tend to favor that they are just now finishing off a large consolidative move from their recent strong upside advance. Here's a look at a nice triangle forming on the sector chart. Some nice setups forming in individual stocks.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
Lets see how this SOX pattern plays out in the days ahead. I've been somewhat surprised by the strength in the semi group in light of the move in oil.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
Gizmo that Dow 15 minute chart looks like a triangle formation. I've found that when a triangle forms divergences are usually secondary at best. I give pattern recognition precedence over divergences. All ascending triangles for example form negative divergence yet the majority in uptrends break to the upside.