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RGDX is my biggest position by $. I loved the chart going into it, but the market and I suspect MMaker's took it down below the 50DMA ($1.32) on purpose to shake peeps out.
I'm expecting a nice move of $.30 out of it, and it going to $.70, but will take whatever it gives along the way.
It has plenty of room to roam with the RSI just passing 50, MACD is nearing the crossover and STO only 30. Looking really good.
That's a nice close. I had to sneak out a few mins early before the bell. I'll take a 14% or any green day out of her. See what Monday brings. Reverse split and conference.
IDN - $.50 - See how she ends. Near high of day, had very good volume, see if she fades a bit or not. A little over extended on the 15 min chart.
Ideally, a pull back into the close, or at the open Monday and I'll jump in. IMO, looks to be very close to making a pop.
link back for chart.
DARA - When you have time check out the whole PDF. I need to also, only skimmed the parts and the ODD.
Good news is, ODD still on the table and a possibility. That might keep it from falling too much further. Bad news is, it might not be very soon either. Ying/Yang situation.
Jason has admitted in a tweet that he's been wrong on the company so far, but still has faith.
I like the fact that sales were 0, then something, and now with 20 salespeople, should be growing and growing.
My thoughts, at the moment. Is to just tuck it away and forget about it, and see in 3-6 months if anything has happened. But plan is subject to change at any moment :)
I didn't completely realize that IGXT's CRL wasn't due to the drug but to the manufacturing process.
So I asked Smurf to explain a little more and then we'll go over the charts next week for a plan of action.
They currently seem to be in a holding pattern and have to figure out the manufacturing which they stated to be "weeks." Since weeks can mean "weeks" or "Months" this seems like a time where peeps may get out of it and into other stocks that are moving with the markets.
So, IGXT is ON WATCH. Gonna look to see if we can jump in sometime when nobody's looking.
MSTX - Was staring at the 15 min chart, thinking of doing the same when I saw your posting. They have a conference / presentation on Monday I believe. Was thinking of holding it until then and perhaps selling on Monday. They do have a few catalysts in Q1 though I believe. So looking at all of that too.
There is a wall thrown up at $.86, so been looking to see if that holds or not.
DARA - $.52 - ZACK's Buy Rating - Update 2/6/14
Highlights below from the PDF...
February 6, 2014
Jason Napodano, CFA
jnapodano@zacks.com
PDF Link: http://scr.zacks.com/files/doc_coverage/Biotech%20-%20Jason%20Napodano/DARA/February%206%202014_DARA_Napodano.pdf
ODD Status: …No Update On KRN5500 ODD…
DARA’s Form 10K filed on February 4, 2014 provided little update on the status of the pending Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) decision from the U.S. FDA on KRN5500. The language from the annual report (posted below) is similar to the last update from the company in November 2013:
------------------------------
We had a brief conversation with the company for the preparation of this report. Management told us they remain in “active dialogue” with the U.S. FDA on the ODD application. This is important because many investors have asked us if the application has been rejected or moved to the back burner at either the agency of the company. This does not seem to be the case. We are hoping for a decision in the next few months.
--------------------------------
We believe DARA’s stock remains attractively valued. Revenues in 2012 were non-existent. In 2013, revenues totaled only $0.42 million, again…pretty low.
However, based on the recent sales force expansion and the three new products DARA is now co-promoting from Mission Pharmacal, we think DARA can do over $2.0 million in revenues in 2014 and $10+ million in revenues in 2016. If our modeling holds, the stock should be trading at over $5.00 by year-end 2014 (post-split), and that is based solely on the six current marketed products and has no value for KRN5500. We think orphan drug designation on KRN5500 could triple the market value of the company. A licensing partner will probably be announced soon after the FDA’s decision. Our conclusion is that investors can buy DARA now and get both an emerging specialty pharmaceutical story at a reasonable price, and a Phase 2b drug in KRN5500 for free.
Current Recommendation Buy
Prior Recommendation Neutral
Date of Last Change 09/13/2012
Current Price (02/06/14) $0.52
Target Price $1.50
Awesome. Thanks. She's definitely on our watch list.
So far, IGXT is down a little today (only -2%). Tells me ..that perhaps peeps may be saying, "I'd rather be investing in something else at the moment."
We got some wabbits last time. See if we can get some more next time. I'll go back over the charts for next week.
Thanks.
IGXT - Smurf, Please remind me to ask you more about this next week sometime. I didn't have time to really find out about the CRL. Are you saying it was a manufacturing issue only? And that the FDA said that the drug was okey dokey?
If, so then IGXT is something to definitely keep on watch.
Weeks can be weeks, or can be months, very true. I felt that people may get tired of waiting and move on.
Thanks
KIPS - Was thiiiiiiiis close (...holds my fingers together closely) to adding yesterday to bring my average down, but wanted to wait the market out.
Am in at $.72, down -$300. Feel good about it still, holding and hoping for a move of $.10-$.30.
Gap at $.82
IDN - Am waiting for the Full STO on the 15 Min chart to go back to undersold area. It looks like it may pop back up to the HOD $.51 or more before that, so I may miss out as it has good volume.
But I want to go back to what made me successful the last two months, and that's waiting, waiting, waiting... until its where I feel more confident about it (and get some wabbits).
So, waiting for $.46ish if possible. Or may wait until Monday or Tuesday as last time it did the pop, it came down to support after breaking through and then making 'the boom.'
so, waiting...if not...APPY here I come. Would like DRRX, but on limited funds, I can't sell that until Tuesday, only one day before PDUFA. Don't want to chance.
IDN - $.48 - ON Close Watch
IDN spiked above downward slope today and has decent volume. If it falls to $.46ish, am going to take a dip.
Non Bio.
It's green so far. I'll take that better than red.
RGDX $1.38 - Volume of 4,782 in first half hour. It's just waiting, waiting, waiting for any kind of news to make it go.
Thank you for those other two. Good to know.
Happy Friday
Below is taken from: http://www.vistapglobal.com/2014/01/a-vista-partners-commentary-fda-notice-sickle-cell-disease-public-meeting-02-07-14-on-patient-focused-drug-development-for-sickle-cell-disease/
---------------------------
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My portfolio didn't necessarily agree with you, but I do as well. Market made a valid attempt and RGDX is heating up. Yesterday's shake down on RGDX was again on very low volume. Seems more like a market maker taking it down below the 50DMA to get some stop orders, but who knows?
I didn't see what ETRM did in the last few seconds. Big POP. Nice!
Also something to note, the IBB and BTK (biotech ETF's) were both down today, whereas the big 3 markets were up.
Thanks Smurf. Watching XLF :
I'd like good numbers of course, but its always more interesting to see how the market reacts to numbers. The fed said its going to taper by 10B and then they do and then the market seems to say "huh?" as if its surprised. So sentiment is always what i watch for.
In any case...Tomorrow one of the things that I'll be watching (and then the following few days) is the XLF. The Financial Spider.
If a rally back is going to occur, the XLF needs to show it. Here's a chart based upon a stockcharts.com newsletter/market message that they send out.
It shows that the XLF was nearing the November low. Now a support area. It's very oversold, MACD hasn't crossed yet, but is curling, and RSI bounced off of 30 (oversold) twice recently. It also did that in last August, when it rallied back.
If it breaks 21.1 ish on good volume that's a really good sign of a turnaround.
Just one of the things that i watch to help me learn.
There is a theory out there, however I stress that this theory probably comes 100% from people like myself who are down 30% on DARA. So, I wouldn't hold much of it at all, but...
The theory at this stage is, Reverse Split on Monday. The conference/presentation on Monday also.
DARA BioSciences to Present at 16th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference on Monday, February 10, 2014, 2:00 pm EST
Then after reverse split, they may have an idea about Orphan status being returned, then if pop in price, then do an offering.
But again, I think those things are thought of by those looking at their red holdings :), looking for any reason for short term greatness. Long term, they look ok to me. I may have to hold.
------------------------------------
PR about monday's Presentation - link: http://www.darabio.com/media-center/press-releases?detail=294
RALEIGH, NC -- (Marketwired) -- 02/03/14 -- DARA BioSciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: DARA), an oncology supportive care specialty pharmaceutical company dedicated to providing healthcare professionals a synergistic portfolio of medicines to help cancer patients adhere to their therapy and manage side effects arising from their cancer treatments, announced today that the Company will present at the 16th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference hosted by the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) February 10-11, 2014 at the Waldorf Astoria in New York City.
David J. Drutz, M.D., DARA BioSciences' Chief Executive Officer and Chief Medical Officer, will provide an overview of the Company's business during the live presentation on Monday, February 10, 2014 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
A live audio webcast of the presentation will be available in the Investor Relations section of the DARA BioSciences website at www.darabio.com. The webcast presentation will be archived on the Company's website for 90 days following the event.
I missed this post earlier. Sounds like a solid move. When any doubt, get out (and with profits too!!!) Great job. Keep them coming like that.
Why chance something that you're unsure of? Too many other plays out there.
Waiting... Watching a few. COMPQ back near 4045, staying above it (4050) at the moment.
DRRX: $2.03 - Seeing if it falls still. Will wait for wabbits.
APPY: $2.36 - Two Seeking Alpha articles in the past two days, but they didn't make it pop even on a mostly green day today. IMO, It's making lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart (including the candle wicks). Seems like it just isn't sure, or wants go to lower. Am looking for a confirmation somewhere.
IDN: $.452 Still has my interest.
ACHN: $3.08 Watching it again, its down after selling it at $3.3's (i forget). IMO, it's looks like it might be starting to form a bottom/base on daily. They are still expecting the hold to be released of their drug by June(ish) of this year. IMO, people, including me, like to eye that gap for when that does happen.
GEVO: $1.28 I like the chart, but am not sure when earnings are being released. Is an interesting company. Type of biofuel that Richard Branson and Coca-Cola have both invested. Branson for the fuel and Coke for plant based bottles. Coke has initiative to have their bottles made from ALL plant-based by 2020. From what I read, they have some bottles with 30% plant based at the moment. IMO, looks good for a POP soon. Need to research more still. Has a gap up at $1.65ish.
Am deciding to do nothing until after tomorrow's job report comes out and everyone gets in a hissy about it one way or the other.
DRRX - $2.11 Figures that the day I can't be near a computer, is the day it falls. Always another bus around the corner. No reason to chase. With that said...
DRRX still has room to move. RSI only at 56 and Full STO at oversold at 24. MACD above 0 still and just started curling up.
Am going to wait though and watch it still. See if it comes back down $1.90-$1.95ish, or lower.
PDUFA Feb 12.
You're welcome. It doesn't mean I'm right, just upon checking the few definitions that I found to refresh myself on it, it doesn't seem to fit them properly.
BOL ...seems to be indecision mode at the moment.
IGXT - To the naked eye it does look somewhat like cup and handle, however according to a couple of definitions, it's a "no" IMO.
Cup and handle's should be 7 weeks to 65 weeks. This one is 2.5 years. Rounded bottom isn't very rounded. Handle is very spikey and went down too far compared to a "normal" 8-20% handle correction.
On a WEEKLY chart...maybe the handle will start showing more like a handle, but right now its more of a big red candle of indecision. Hope this helps...
NASDAQ - 4041 Near Resistance - 15 Min Chart
1/29 - A week ago COMPQ bounced off 4045(ish).
2/3 Then a few days later, it broke through it.
2/4 It challenged 4045, lost...went down.
2/6 Today its nearing 4041...let's see what happens.
Jobs report tomorrow. Would like to enter another trade, but am watching this at the moment.
IMO, the Reverse split had been known about for months, so this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, so that should have been baked into the price already.
DARA mentioned yesterday or day before that they only had enough cash for the rest of this quarter I think it was, so to me an offering was coming too. (it might have been next quarter - but i think it was this- either way). I think most knew it was coming but the question would be when? In a perfect world, after ODD approval (if its approved and coming).
So that leaves us with the Orphan Designation. DARA stated that they answered the FDA's questions and resubmitted it on Nov 19, 2013.
So, to me the ball is back in the FDA's court, and we're waiting on that. I typically read that it takes 90 days on average for a decision. Not sure if that applies with a re-submission, or for an ODD that seems to have been delayed, or been working on for a while now. So February 19th is 90 days.
I am holding right now. I may sell 1/4, but right now I'm holding. They have a conference / presentation on Monday. Might get a small bump from that...or all the above might send it down. Dunno.
TO me, the fact that they now have 20 sales reps, is a positive. They will have the delisting taken care of soon. They will have the offering out of the way. So, the unknowns are the ODD.
Am going to hold right now. See what happens.
IDN $.43 - Wacky Chart of the Week
With the markets swinging wildly intra-hour, intra-day, and intra-week, let's take a look at something else wacky...
Ned's Wacky Chart of the Week... IDN $.43.
IMO, it appears to me, that IDN looks amazingly similar right now, to what it looked like at beginning of November when it "busted a move"
I did my best John Madden telestrator markup. Enjoy, ignore, watch in horror, or be amazed if it does make the move.
link back: for info on IDN: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96493159&txt2find=idn
no debt, recent offering closed, etc. On watch (if anything ...just to see what it does...may take a dip in it)
Portfolio - Down 5% today (-$1,400).
Still feel good about KIPS, MSTX, RGDX though. IMO, am thinking each have time to make their next moves soon with 1Q updates for MSTX, RGDX still to come.
KIPS was closed offering that is still within range to make its move.
DARA making me think twice, but am holding it for a bit still. May sell off 1/4 - 1/2 of it to use elsewhere. There was supposed to be a reverse split shareholder meeting today. I can't find any info about it though. DARA also is coming up on the 90 days from their re-submission of info to the FDA for ODD. It's been delayed for year or two, but ehhh, assuming (may be a bad idea at this point), but its still within the 90 days of resubmission, will wait a little more. DARA has a conference / presentation on Monday I think it is. Maybe some type of updates then. Supposedly 20 salespeople added recently.
Only holding those 4 positions right now.
APPY, DRRX, IDN, GSS, GEVO all on watch. Have been wanting APPY but felt chart was still wanting it to go down, so been holding off.
Bad exit actually, but part of that has been my availability this week. I had plenty of chances before too.
I had the news on Monday which I should have sold it upon, but I was too late to move on it. However, it had broken the trendline, so was going to wait it out. Changed my mind.
I can see it making a very strong move if the market allows it to do so.
DRRX - $1.92 - Fell to 50 DMA ($1.81) and popped up. Still watching to see if it falls to $1.70-$1.75. May jump in then, depends upon markets of course.
All the rumblings are about Friday's job report, so may not do anything until after that.
PDUFA date Feb 12th.
IPCI - $3.90 - Sold the remaining 1,000 shares i had for a loss of -$12.53. Market is goofy, wanted to put some cash in the account. IPCI may do very well going forward. I only had 1,000 shares. Felt better to keep it as cash or use it for another play.
INTELLIPHARMACEUTICS INTL INC IPCI
Cash Shares: -1,000.000 Price: $3.892 Amount: $3,883.98
We all are swimming in red. I think someone peed in the pool too.
FYI: I have real life distractions at the moment, so can't watch it closely. Hopefully it bottoms here and gives a signal to jump in a little later this morning for me if its still down here.
$1.86 for a nibble $1.70-$1.75 and I'm in.
BOL
RGDX $1.36 - Very low volume last five days.
Feb 4, 2014 163,986
Feb 3, 2014 171,355
Jan 31, 2014 158,421
Jan 30, 2014 204,932
Jan 29, 2014 248,358
AVG Volume 400K
Drifting until some type of news...
100 DMA - $1.32. Hit $1.34 yesterday.
The end of the month is an arbitrary date we set up in our minds. Day to day, week to week, month to month, full moon to full moon, year to year, whatever.
Sell 'em when it fits your plan not when it fits the calendar.
As long as your long term average is positive, it's all good.
January is done, good or bad (your case very good), let's fight for that February, and learn and earn.
True, that others may see an entry point here. All valid points.
Just reminding you to step back from the trade, take a breather, and take a new view of it all, as you seem to have. Ask yourself, "if I wasn't invested here, would I see this as a good entry?"
If not, take your gains at the level you wish. The trade may still be there at a later date at a better price. If so, then wait it out.
Just making sure that you have an exit point to "lock in gains." I don't have an opinion of it either way at the moment.
Smurf, 65.84% for Jan!!! Fantastic.
IGXT - Do you have your plan in place, higher target and exit target? Just reminding you... as I'm sure you know the last few days have been emotional ones for IGXT people. After a day or so, some may figure to lighten up and move on to other plays. Just a thought for you.