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Ann:
You're welcome! You, too.
I apologize. I'm talking about DNA Direct, not ancestry.com. So, to restate correctly:
"DNAPrint's tests are now the most informative available at DNA Direct ... the top is a very good place to be!"
http://www.dnadirect.com/patients/tests/genealogy_testing/index.jsp
Maternal Lineage [old mtDNA test]
Price: $189
Paternal Lineage [old yDNA test]
Price: $149-$199
Combined Lineage [both old tests together; mtDNA and yDNA]
Price: $328-$378
And at the cutting edge, DNAPrint Genomics' tests...
AncestryByDNA 2.5
Price: $240
EurasianDNA 1.0
Price: $430
EuropeanDNA 2.0
Price: $650
Yep, DNAPrint's tests are now the most informative available at Ancestry.com ... the top is a very good place to be!
Good point.
"ya all would not be here bashing day in
and day out including weekends and holidays
if you thought this stock had no potential"
I'm certainly not giving up. I think DNAG's future is very bright, and I have no intention to sell anytime soon. I've picked up more stock, and with the prices as low as they are right now, I'm thinking of picking up even more. There is a lot of value in DNAG. That value isn't reflected in current price, because there is an excess of shares out there. (Which is why DNAG says they intend to begin buying back stock.) As others have said, funding is everything to DNAG, and they're being very active in trying to acquire it, not the sort of thing that would indicate *they've* given up - to the contrary.
P.S., Of course, someone exercising their stock options may *not* have sold their stock. I know I wouldn't sell, not with things developing as they are. This hypothetical person may have exercised the options after becoming convinced it was a good idea to do so (for instance, the Bioserve and DNA Direct arrangements may have had something to do with it.) Or the stock options may have been freshly created by the company, perhaps relating to their funding issues, which hopefully will be fully resolved soon. As for the run ending, a glut of shares will do that, as would someone selling millions of shares in a panic (as appears likely to have happened, but I won't mention any names here.) Keep in mind, the stock price is still up compared to a few weeks ago. I think the news, including the Bioserve and DNA Direct arrangements, has a lot to do with this trend upward.
I don't think there's anything unethical going on. The simplest explanation is often the best. Here is one speculative scenario, that I could imagine:
Someone in the company could have had stock options, and decided to exercise them when the stock price made it profitable to do so. It's no real secret that the current excess supply of DNAG stock tends depress stock prices, and cause price crashes after short-lived run-ups (which can even be caused as a fluke, as I described, simply by someone putting in a large order with no price limit, and this can cause others to do knee-jerk buy-ins at higher prices, that can turn out to be a mistake.) This hypothetical person may have chosen to sell the stock while the selling's good, i.e., before the stock price drops again.
In such a scenario, I think that selling new stock into such a fragile run (which might be expected to hasten an end to the run) probably wouldn't be especially frowned upon within the company, for at least two reasons I can think of:
1. The current excess of outstanding shares would tend to make such a run rather short-lived anyway. If the run ends 1 day early, no big deal for the company, right?
2. As the company has announced their intentions to buy back stock, having lower stock prices would actually be helpful in executing the buybacks, by keeping the costs lower. The cheaper they can buy back shares, the more money they end up with, both as a company, and as insider stockholders. (Those of us who keep our shares, rather than selling them back to the company, would similarly benefit.)
Once the buybacks have occurred, and the stock price can behave normally (as stocks are generally expected to behave,) then all this changes.
I don't think there's any reason to suspect anything unethical going on. As we know, the company has had to make use of stock options, and trading stock in lieu of payment, due to funding issues. When the funding issues are gone, and the excess stock is gone, this stock will be free to fly. In the meantime, I wouldn't even consider selling. Buying, yes. Not selling.
You're welcome, Michiko. Thank you, too, for creating and posting this list!
Sorry, not Dec. 17th. Oct. 17th (last week.)
"...the last change in the # of outstanding DNAG shares was Dec. 17th, when the # of outstanding shares actually increased by 2,200,704."
OK, I talked to the transfer agent. Despite what the online numbers I referenced seemed to imply, the transfer agent told me that DNAPrint has not begun buying back their stock - not yet. According to the transfer agent, the current number of outstanding shares is: 644,609,919
Also, they said the last change in the # of outstanding DNAG shares was Dec. 17th, when the # of outstanding shares actually increased by 2,200,704.
So, we still have a window of opportunity here, to buy DNAG shares at these extremely low prices, before the price goes up (due to recent news sinking in, increases in revenue, stock buyback beginning as DNAG has announced the intention to do, and any further good news.)
There's no way I'd sell any of my shares at this point. It's all "buy and hold" for the long term, as far as I'm concerned.
Even without further news about financing and the pharma spinoff, I think the stock will (or should) be pushed higher just on recent news alone, including the revenue-generating DNA Direct and BioServe deals. I'd think 6 cents would be a good short-term target on that alone. With further good news... well, the sky's the limit.
Thanks jkids. I just left them a voicemail, asking about any changes in the # of outstanding shares, in recent months. Hopefully they will get back to me soon. I'll post here with any info they provide.
Thanks.
Thanks for the suggestion. Do you happen to have the transfer agent's contact info?
The reported BioServe and DNA Direct partnerships look very much like DNAPrint will be on the receiving end of significant cash. That is, they will be paid to do the work, not paying to do it!
Michiko, May I ask, why not?
"dgplexus, I am not allowed to publish this list any more."
If those numbers are correct, that looks to be a recent decrease of around 11,739,215 shares. Some people who sold their shares in a panic (or in an attempt to "play" this severely undervalued stock, and buy it back cheaper later,) appear to have had their shares bought and retired by the company! That's great news for the rest of us, and DNAG's price per share forecasts!
Has DNAG already begun the stock buybacks?
Google Finance reports, currently, 630.67M outstanding.
Yahoo Finance currently reports the same figure.
> 642.409.215 as of 9/28/2007
You can add me to the list, at 1,535,900 shares. (About 0.24% of total, by my calculation.)
That's great news! Heightened interest and activity, including new investors! (Despite what depress-bots/bashers might say.)
That's recent (past) stock behavior. With increasing interest and confidence in DNAG, and new investors buying in (as they are,) things can and will change.
LOL. Do you think the new partnerships with DNA Direct and BioServe (generating direct business for DNAPrint Genomics,) and the other good news we've had lately, aren't positive developments at all? Stock price shouldn't budge? Hmmm. Meanwhile, I buy.
Actually, this is a Wells Fargo broker, a VP, and he bought DNAG stock, along with me. He was glad I brought it to his attention. DNAG isn't "just any" penny stock. It's the only penny stock I own.
One reason I'm advocating letting the support base for DNAG build in a controlled manner, minus the knee-jerking and panicking, is so less people get hurt by such up/down chops, before there is sufficient volume for a good take-off and sustained flight. Another reason is, a nice smooth upward trend attracts most investors a lot better than an up/down chop graph, in my opinion. (Though some investors aren't scared off by it, it can be disappointing to see false run after false run...) I'm saying these false runs are very avoidable. Actually we should consider the recent activity to be a good sign; obviously, there was some buying going on. Increased interest/confidence in DNAG. If the bad buying and the knee-jerking can be eliminated from this equation, we are on our way up already.
Perhaps you misunderstood, I am very bullish about DNAG. Long term. I think flighty/panicky short term sorts should stay out, at least for now. They just fuel the up/down swing with their knee-jerk reactions.
As for bad buying (not using limit orders, buying in a huge order which drives up the price, only to let the price fall again, unless it's picked up by others,) my broker (investment banker) tells me that is a major factor in such stock behaviors. I'd tend to believe him, as he has 22+ years experience and works with a very reputable company. If DNAG is going to fly, we should be examining our strategies, and helping to educate others, so we can all "hold like pros" and let the support base, volume and price, build up in a relatively smooth manner. If that happens, I anticipate astronomical gains in the next few years. Of course, I could be wrong, and that's why I don't throw all my money (or even a large portion) into one stock.
False alarm. My posts eventually showed up, presumably after Yahoo staff reviewed my posts and approved them. The bashers may have succeeded in having them put me on temporary moderation. Nice try, bashers, but no luck.
> My posts seem to be blocked over on the Yahoo DNAG board.
In my opinion, only long-term investors who like DNAG for a long-term gamble should be buying stock at this time. Everyone else is just making mistakes, and/or dickering/manipulating/exploiting, causing undue panic, etc.
> But also realize that you didn't see any positive news to cause the run up in the first place.
Why do people keep saying this? Not paying attention to the latest partnerships, etc? Including DNA Direct, and BioServe. This stock behaves in ways that confuse the average trader; when one person decides to buy in big (triggered by news or whatever,) and they don't put their order in with a limit (or buy carefully in chunks,) they alone drive the stock price up. Then all the knee-jerking occurs, which we've seen yet again. Just let people buy in, encourage them to do so smartly, and understand how this stock behaves... allow it to build up. Panic only helps those who try to cash in on it.
My posts seem to be blocked over on the Yahoo DNAG board. I guess bashers don't want me giving sane advice (don't try to buy a lot in one big order, or you drive the price up and cause an ignorance-driven panic like we just saw.) If you lift a rock up, then stop holding it, of course it will drop. One person, making a single big order (without buying carefully in chunks or with a limit order,) can drive this stock up, then it falls when their order is completed. Bashers don't want you to know that, neither would manipulators that take advantage of ignorance.
More info: "DNAPrint is a DNA Direct preferred provider for autosomal ethnicity testing. DNAPrint offers the AncestryByDNA 2.5, EurasianDNA 1.0, and EuroDNA 2.0 tests that use innovative, cutting-edge technology to examine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) ancestry informative markers along all 22 non-sex chromosomes. These ancestry tests can be used to determine the anthropological origins of an individual's ancestry."
http://dnadirect.com/patients/tests/genealogy_testing/selecting_our_preferred_providers.jsp
AncestryByDNA is available through dnadirect.com:
http://dnadirect.com/patients/tests/genealogy_testing/index.jsp#null
As the limitations of old mtDNA and yDNA tests are becoming public knowledge, AncestryByDNA is going mainstream, as the superior product. How widely will it be used? These are exciting times for DNAG.
Nice spin. You wouldn't be shorting DNAG, would you?
Nice try. You aren't really paying attention, are you? I'm smiling from ear to ear... haven't you been following developments?
Regarding why I think short-term investment in DNAG, at this point, is silly: You wouldn't try sky diving from a plane that hasn't made lift-off, yet. DNAG is currently like that plane. Why buy it just to jump off again, quickly? I think a real lift-off will be soon. Why not stay on until some impressive altitude is reached? Selling early just tends to keep the stock way down (undervalued.) Holding like a pro (patience and all,) gives the stock a chance to climb up, and up, as shares offered for sale are more scarce (simple supply and demand.) This wouldn't tend to work to over-inflate a stock, but could help a stock recover to its rightful place.
Just my opinions, of course.
Much better in the long-term, in my opinion.
Yep, that's confirmation that DNAPrint's ancestry testing is on the cutting-edge. The old mtDNA and yDNA tests don't cut it, any more, so AncestryByDNA is moving to the forefront!
Exactly. But some still have a vestigial stress response, LOL.
We've had news that seems to have triggered this recent upswing in activity, for instance the DNA Direct partnership. It was apparently only in the slides, not verbally mentioned in the presentation, which surprises me. Other partnership announcements and developments also factor in.
One thing is, we have to understand the behavior of this stock at this point in time. With usually low volume, it doesn't have anything to hold it up. When someone decides to buy in (say, a million shares or more,) that one person can drive the price up significantly (my broker explained the mechanics of that to me, such a large purchase should be done carefully to avoid driving up your own purchase prices.) Then after that one person has bought, the price tends to settle down (at least briefly) and some people get all disappointed. Self-fulfilling prophecy and "gold rush" speculation, as well as the MMs, all feed into this. In the longer term, with the good news sinking in, plus more good news and increasing revenues, we can say goodbye to this sort of pattern.
Stockpicker, I'm with you and the other optimistic longs.
A lot of times, stock behaviors are basically manifestations of self-fulfilling prophecies, odd strategies, and sometimes poor judgment (often emotionally based) on the part of investors. I'm holding DNAG stock long term, end of story. If they go bankrupt, then they do, but I think the chances of the stock flying are much greater, than that. I can afford to take that risk (properly diversified.) I wish everyone in the stock market behaved rationally, but wishing won't make pigs fly, either.