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This article says he has about $240B to help fund these initiatives, plus it looks like the states have to chip in 25% of the $400 in enhanced unemployment benefits. This should help millions of Americans to make their rent/mortgage payments until Congress (who really holds the purse strings) comes to an agreement(s) on future relief.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-to-sign-coronavirus-relief-executive-orders-saturday-to-help-unemployed-americans-renters.amp
He signed an Executive order on Eviction moratorium but haven't read it yet.
How much Capital would they need now that they've added about $350B net new mortgages over the last 3 quarters?
SM: "Hey Mark it's Steve, DJT wants to provide rent/mortgage relief to millions of low and moderate income Americans, but we want to make sure the twins are capitalized, how about we agree to end the NWS and UST gives a $30B tax credit for the overpayment?"
MC: Sure
I think you nailed the problem on the head, the Executive branch doesn't control the power of the purse, Congress does, but Congress can't agree on squat, so with an EO, SM and MC agreeing on the end of the NWS and a tax credit, DJT can "save" low and moderate income Americans from the pure anxiety brought on by this terrible contagious virus and the collatrral economic fallout AND get the twins freed, WITH political cover!
Still highly unlikely, but it seems like DJT's modus operandi, and if he did wouldn't surprise me a bit!
That's kinda what I was thinking, still unlikely, but why not kill 2 birds with 1 stone and keep the D's off your back by helping low to moderate income housing avoid eviction /foreclosure AND IT WOULD REQUIRE NO GOVERNMENT SPENDING! Which as I am sure you already know, the Legislature controls the nations purse strings.
Does that include a beverage? I am still trying to understand this overly complicated Re-proposed Capital Rule, any idea how much CET1 in Billions required now, since the book of the GSE's is now about $350B higher than it was in 9/19?
He was!!! I remember when David Maxwell shook my hand and looked me in the eye and said, "The biggest risk of owning this stock is POLITICAL RISK", he was right almost 30 years ago AND today! That's why they hired Bill Maloni and a host of others, it has always been a political company. I remember hearing Franklin Delano Raines (FDR-you think he was a Democrat?) testifying in a Senate Banking Committee meeting, and one commentator mentioned that we bought the portrait painting that hung on the wall behind the Chair of the Committee.
I use to work there baking in the late 1980's to early 90's and it was true EVEN BACK THEN! Those were the glory days, when Thomas Lawler and Tim Howard has just started putting together the mortgage portfolio. The NIM today is like 59 bps, BACK THEN IT WAS LIKE OVER 100BPS! I never sold, even my ESOP shares, (too busy running my businesses) and have accumulated over the last 27 years, I was a wee bit pissed when the NWS was announced on 08/17/12, but recognized instantly the golden opportunity to buy shares!
That would be Sweet!
I don't know, but I think SM could agree with MC about cancelling the NWS and perhaps giving a tax credit and this would immediately capitalize the GSE's. Since there is a National Emergency going on, I think the Presidental Power is at it's peak, and DJT doesn't seem like he would be afraid to use it. What do you think?
If the Government hadn't stolen all the GSE's capital for the last 8 years (Net Worth Swipe 8 yr anniversary is 08/17/20), they might have been able to help out by providing more residential financing opportunities for builders and buyers, but now they are trying to get every nickel they can, since they are leveraged like 350:1
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-fall-to-a-record-low-for-the-eighth-time-this-year-making-buying-a-home-more-affordable-for-many-americans-2020-08-06?cx_testId=34&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=0&mod=home-page-cx#cxrecs_s
Well, according to Kudlow,the President has teams of lawyers drafting Executive Orders for Eviction relief, student loans, and unemployment benefits, the Federal Reserve buys the GSE's MBS to attempt to stimulate lower MBS coupons which in turn should result in lower mortgage interest rates, so the Fed should welcome any move that strengthens the capital position of the GSE's
DJT can provide both eviction/foreclosure relief and return much needed stolen capital with 1 Executive Order that includes ending the governmental defacto nationalize of the GES's!
Okay, I am new at this thanks for the recommendation!
Here's a thought, an Executive Order to halt evictions/foreclosures coupled with an end to the NWS and a return from UST of their ill gotten gains!
Many casual observers of the financial crisis still "blame" the GSE's for bringing the World economy down, but TH brings up an interesting point in his 07/12/20 comment letter on the reproposed capital rule: "Moreover, it is a misreading of history to equate a large volume of credit guarantees by
Fannie and Freddie with greater systemic risk. The huge jump in mortgage credit loss rates
for banks, Fannie and Freddie during and after the 2008 crisis was caused by less credit
guaranty business being done by Fannie and Freddie, not more. From the early 1990s
through the mid-2000s, Fannie and Freddie’s dominance as secondary market credit
guarantors enabled them to exert strong influence over national underwriting standards.
But in the early 2000s, concerns by Treasury and the Federal Reserve over rapid growth in
the companies’ portfolios led them to support the creation of an alternative, unregulated
financing mechanism using senior-subordinated private-label securities (PLS) to compete
with Fannie and Freddie. By 2005, issuance of PLS exceeded the issuance of MBS by Fannie,
Freddie, and Ginnie Mae combined. At that point, Fannie and Freddie no longer could
enforce their underwriting disciplines; originators could sell loans through PLS, whose
issuers were not exposed to the losses on them and thus had no incentive to limit their risk.
Undisciplined underwriting became the norm, leading to the boom and bust that followed.
A proper reading of the financial crisis is that having companies that specialize in credit
risk management, with their own capital at stake, playing the lead role in setting national
mortgage underwriting standards is a clear benefit, and leads to lower, not higher, credit
losses for the system as a whole. FHFA has this exactly backwards with its “stability buffer”.
Hang in there! Justice WILL PREVAIL! There is no way I can see for the Net Worth Swipe to be viewed as anything but OUTSIDE a conservator's duties. Plus MC knows it's wrong, the Executive branch is advocating for their release, and release CANNOT happen without eliminating the NWS.
Well, naturally I believe that as CFO of Fannie Mae at the time of the catalyst for the Great Recession of 08/09, he wants to point the finger of blame to other parties, but if we as a nation are to understand WTF happened to cause the world economy to come to its knees at that time with all the economic dislocation and unemployment and bankrupticies and loss of wealth, and if you look at all the studies of WTF happened, then yes I think his points are still spot on. You could counter that well, why didn't the GSE's just stop buying loans, but they were chartered by Congress to provide liquidity and the TBTF banks ended up buying back billions and billions of these horrible mortgage assets that they dumped on the GSE's.
What do you think?
From Tim Howard's comment letter of 7/12/20 on how limits on the GSE's mortgage portfolio, coupled with the Federal Reserve and UST's encouragement of PLS (Greenspan was a Libertarian, like MC) led to increased competition in the Secondary Mortgage Market, with the inevitable "race to the bottom" problem of lower underwriting standards (e.g., liar loans, pick a pay negative amortization, no docd, if you have a pulse you get a mortgage, etc) that Georgetown Professor Adam J. Levitin told us about:
"But in the early 2000s, concerns by Treasury and the Federal Reserve over rapid growth in
the companies’ portfolios led them to support the creation of an alternative, unregulated
financing mechanism using senior-subordinated private-label securities (PLS) to compete
with Fannie and Freddie. By 2005, issuance of PLS exceeded the issuance of MBS by Fannie,
Freddie, and Ginnie Mae combined. At that point, Fannie and Freddie no longer could
enforce their underwriting disciplines; originators could sell loans through PLS, whose
issuers were not exposed to the losses on them and thus had no incentive to limit their risk.
Undisciplined underwriting became the norm, leading to the boom and bust that followed."
Wow, thanks! At 400+ pages, it ain't easy wrapping your head around the reproposal in its entirety! Another query, if I haven't exhausted your patience already: (1) I can easily see the Executives who will run these financial behemoths, keeping a healthy cushion ABOVE the minimum 100% payout level (maybe 10% to 20% above), so what would the Capital Ratio need to be ensure that they get their bonus, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3% and isn't that more than the 2018 proposal of approximately 2.9%?
Hmmmm, seems like some good points, thanks for being patient and taking the time to share your analysis! But, I'm scratching my head a little bit over: (1) Isn't it true that WITHOUT the $234B in capital, they CANNOT pay 100% of their Executive Bonuses and FULL COUPON to any "new" JPS? (2) Generally, in Banking all things being EQUAL, holding LESS required capital allows greater returns, than more capital, because of leverage?
So, they can pay Executive Bonuses and distributions to shareholders by holding less than $234B? I think that matters don't you? What about Tim's point here:"For this reason, significant increases in guaranty fees do not appear to be either a sure or a
sufficient means of remedying the damage to Fannie and Freddie’s business caused by the
imposition of a 4.0 percent minimum capital requirement. To permit Fannie and Freddie to
be competitive in the market, FHFA must lower that minimum to one better aligned with
the companies’ historical credit losses, as discussed above, and also re-do the May 2020
risk-based standard to eliminate its excessive conservatism, whose purpose was to push
required risk-based capital up to a level approximating the arbitrary Basel bank minimum."
So, are you saying that the former Fannie Mae CFO, who has years upon years of running this financial juggernaut doesn't know what he us talking about? Do you have a background similar to his?
One of the problems with buying "RKT", is that the Gilbert family still calls all the shots (much like a "conservator" does) as the shares are non voting.
Great video, thanks! Like the Nats, the GSE's need to keep fighting! The GSE model has worked for over 50 years now, PROVIDING MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of our fellow Americans with the lowest cost housing finance system in the world! I am afraid MC's ideology will increase the cost of US Housing, decrease the competitiveness of the GSE's, and unnecessarily lower your and my residential real estate values!
WHY MC wants to increase the GSE's 2018 capital requirements by 77% may be more aligned with his impractical idea of this Multiple MBS issuers theme he was talking about early on when he 1st became Director. He is after all a staunch free market advocate economist from George Mason University, whose Economics Program was founded by Nobel Laurete James Buchanan in the mid 1980's, who was not surprisingly a Libertarian. Dr. Buchanan passed away relatively recently, but his legacy lives on, of course generous donations from the Koch Foundation over the years has helped!
I hear you, but with borrowing rates at HISTORICAL lows, it certainly is tempting! You know I think about $14T around the world is receiving NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES on their capital (e.g., 10yr German Bund, Japan 10yr., etc)!
Thanks you too! Justice will eventually prevail and the GSE's will too!
I went to Minneapolis a couple of Summers ago and it's a very clean friendly city-rode bikes down to Target Field after having lunch at Hell's Kitchen restaurant, but I could tell it gets VERY cold in the winter and I liked the protected walkways between buildings, so you can walk from one building to another without exposure to inclement weather.
3 issues Tim Howard brings up in his comments on Re-proposal of the Capital Rule: "First, that basing the companies’ capital on historical credit loss data will lead
to percentage requirements that are far lower than those being proposed by FHFA. Second,
that FHFA’s arbitrarily high capital requirements will force Fannie and Freddie to charge
guaranty fees that are notably out of line with explicit or implicit credit pricing elsewhere
in the market. And third, that competition from the Federal Housing Administration and
commercial banks will make it extremely difficult for Fannie and Freddie to raise guaranty
fees to levels that will provide an attractive return to potential new investors in the
companies on the amount of capital FHFA seems intent on requiring them to hold."
Once in a lifetime, maybe like an investment in the twins!
Look at what happens when you try to prepay/refinance your mortgage in Canada!
https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/break-mortgage-contract.html
I went to game 5 too! Had to fly my 19 yr old son up from Austin, TX, whole thing cost like $3-$5G's! I also took him to the St. Louis game, Strauss was pitching, what a Cinderella season, from getting into the playoffs via a muffed play by their opponent in the Wild Card game, to absolutely stunning St. Louis and LA (after all those years of disappointment in the playoffs!) and then Game 7! Hellavu Season, I don't think we will ever see that again! I bought a Soto jersey for like $525 @ game 5, I think he's playing right now, my son is back from college due to covid so maybe I'll see if he wants to watch shortly. We sent him to 2 games of the World Series in Houston, (he's a pitcher in college in Texas) & he absolutely loved it, wearing his Nats jersey (& good seats behind the dugout!) . Last season, when the Nats were like 15-32, I got GREAT SEATS for like $90 behind the Nats dugout, Davey could hear me I'm sure! I mean the stadium was like less than 1/2 full, so I saw a couple of games last Summer, it's fun! One of the Adjunct Professors I teach with (season ticket holder) said he was able to sell some of his tickets and it paid for the entire season post season as well!
Well said! Remember too PREPAYABLE AT ANYTIME WITHOUT A PREPAYMENT PENALTY-try doing THAT on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage in Canada (or probably anywhere else in the world). "You Ameridicans don't know how good you got it!"
Did you get a chance to see them in one of the 7 World Series games?