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Half Hourly Volume Report for Selected Indices For 5/1/2008
DOW Industrials S&P 100 S&P 500
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total
9:00 AM 343 1289 1632 1591 1332 2923 55586 43822 99408
9:30 AM 529 1775 2304 5211 2231 7442 65523 67637 133160
10:00 AM 590 2437 3027 7159 3686 10845 70100 101597 171697
10:30 AM 710 2568 3278 8438 4716 13154 81381 125795 207176
11:00 AM 741 2684 3425 8710 5053 13763 84837 131089 215926
11:30 AM 3257 4536 7793 9073 5690 14763 95744 153241 248985
12:00 PM 3860 4864 8724 9916 7043 16959 103623 165272 268895
12:30 PM 4302 5163 9465 11792 11928 23720 111994 184586 296580
1:00 PM 4409 5432 9841 12447 12628 25075 128413 206347 334760
1:30 PM 4565 5479 10044 13928 14004 27932 145032 215404 360436
2:00 PM 4702 5594 10296 16032 15090 31122 153649 229712 383361
2:30 PM 4928 6061 10989 17391 16222 33613 165324 239204 404528
3:00 PM 5018 6423 11441 19878 16658 36536 19178 272809 291987
This data tells a story, any one has a clue? In 3:00 Pm hour for every one call fourteen put were bought.
Index option buyers are???
Farooq
Beerworld,
My only explanation is that I am wrong so far on buying those puts but I like to wait three days, it was not based on my program, it is hunch and I will see.
It is OK to go with your thinking, it just enforce notion that I should follow my program.
There is some thing fishy here, what I can not put my finger on it.
Shorts help as cushion in case of a drop. If they are gone drops are more severe, may be 400 to 500 point drop is on the way, Wishful thinking on my part, LOL.
Happy trading.
Farooq
GLENO34,
That was my R2 number for prices.
We did violate that number.
Farooq
Beerworld,
Short term projection was 48.34, but some time we does not reach target, so I started position. I was wrong for not waiting.
I now will wait to add in position, I will add only if position becomes profitable. I rarely add in losing position except for long term investment.
Look at hourly chart and you will see the reasoning. I could be wrong but this is half the house money I am using. This is oil rally but I think in short term oil could retest 120 area again.
Rate cut was wrong we should have paused, Market is short squeezing short sellers. On rate cut logically we should go down.
My thinking is after little exuberance market will come back to reality.
My May projection was 48.70 we may top it.
Happy trading.
Roy,
I decided to increase my position to 2 X @ 82 Cents in may 48 puts, My calculation says we have very good odds to test 47.20 in next 3 days.
I have no stop on them now and they will be carried over night.
Farooq
NM,
48.34 is in play now and we may close on your target, but then we will test 47.20 in next 3 days.
Always some thing beautiful in your post. Making a wrong call is part of business correcting immediately with out ego is price less.
Buying here May 48 puts boss for 82 Cents to sell for 1.40 in next 3 days.
Happy trading.
Roy,
I took a small 1/2 X position in QQQQ May 48 puts @ 0.84 Cents, I will increase position if we go above 90 and I will be stopped out at 78 Cents. Seems like they will close it at high.
Program is saying care full on short now, it is close to become buy.
My initial NQ position is stopped for 2 Point loss, No short till we close below 48.07 on NQ.
I think a lot of money is coming from commodities to NQ, just my hypothesis.
Be care full.
Farooq
Here is my short view,
1- Fed is signaling the worst is behind us that translate into good things are coming.
2- Bank are selling equity at far better term, look at Citi offering, that is the reason we went up.
3- When markets have more confidence they move higher.
4- Balance sheets have more losses carry forward so less tax will be paid in future and some assets which are mark down may and will fetch more money then the value on the book.
5- Consumer confidence is at so low it will go up with any new administration.
6- Oil will come down and I think it has started it process.
That all said it does not mean we will not test 46 or 43 area, we will but is going to be buying opportunity.
I sold my May 47 calls for 1.60 and soon will take position in May 48 puts and will short NQ.
Edit: I am waiting if we touch 48.34 before buying puts and program sell signal; trend is too strong I sold my calls early.
Happy trading.
Roy,
Thank you for sharing your trades, I do think 46.80 and then lower gap could be in play. That said fundamentally we are in a new bull market so my puts will be on short term basis.
I am enjoying short term option trading.
Here is one thing I admit that because of cash account restriction I try to choose the best price and best strike.
When I was trading in margin account I use to take a lot of sub par trade. So your idea has helped me a lot and it defined risk better so my mind is free for equities trading.
As you have noticed I have stopped covered writing and spreads and all sort of hedging.I am following KISS, I am only doing directional trading and program is doing unbelievable.
If I would have started doing it 20 year ago I would be a billionaire by now, LOL.
So thank you my friend for all the good suggestions.
Thank you.
You are doing very good as we all on the board see it.
Happy trading.
Farooq
bob3,
Congratulations.
Good Job.
Farooq
I sold all May 48 puts for 1.42, I was long 350 Puts mostly bought at 98 Cents to 1 $ range.
I was long May 47 puts from 62 and 63 Cents, few hundred but they were sold @ 80 Cents. Funny thing is most of these sold in my absence.
I was out side and came back late. I left those order for some violent move but it was more then my expectation.
All trades in option account.
I am surprise to see board so active. You all have fun, Congratulation to every one on fine trading.
Happy trading.
Faroo
Beerworld,
Gut feeling some time right some time they are wrong.
On short term basis trend is stay long from 1:00 pm since yesterday, as a trader fear and uncertainty push us on the wrong side.
I bought some QQQQ puts in anticipation of drop, indicators were not there, I was trying to front run it and I paid to the piper (well I still owe him position is down) then I made money when I followed my system.
I posted my chart so folks can see where I made a mistake, which I do and I will in future too. As a group no body mentioned my mistake except for Roy. I am surprise on it.
Market will drop, when I do not know, it is just easy to stay long as it is marching up. Put your stop 10 Cents below 34 EMA, what ever time frame you are trading; and you will be happy.
Happy trading.
W@G2 QQQQ 04/30/08 for a 05/02/08 close
47.50 bob3
47.00 rayrohn
46.83 Farooq
46.50 frenchee
This chart I was watching today.
Farooq
Roy,
Holding now 2 X QQQQ May 48 puts, I sold 6 X @ 1.16 as I noted in my post that if I end up green I will sell.
I try to be in cash because account does not allow much other day.
I have feeling we will see 1.45 on them tomorrow, but as you know I try not to trade on feeling any more.
It is way less stress full when one is trading with a map.
I will read on Ninja.
Happy trading.
Farooq
Roy,
I have increased my May 48 QQQQ puts position to 7 X so total of 8 X now I bought @ 1.03 there is 20 Cents stop loss on it and I will carry it over night if it is not profitable by end of the day.
I am working on some thing soon I will share with you.
You just need to remember now big whales are there for Ford.
Happy trading.
Roy,
I bought May 47 calls @ 1.06 and sold them @ 1.17 Now long May 48 puts again @ 1.25 and 1.26.
I did not posted because I thought no one is here and reading it.
I did short NQ future also and covered them with profit.
I am tweaking my program a little bit and I hope it will work better. Do you use any MA in your charts?
Hope you make money against me on Ford puts, LOL. Do not worry I am in it for long time.
I missed OIH May 210 puts Yesterday for 20 Cents they ware asking 8.55 and I was at 8.35; look at them today, after a long time I wanted to buy at bid and I missed big time.
Happy trading.
Farooq
Hi Roy,
Long set up did not pan out I bought 48 QQQQ puts @ 1.27 also but I am out @ 1.41. Now I am long calls May 47 @ 1.06. Just looking 10 % if it comes.
I was early on IWM but set up was threating to move up high and they did lower 5 Cents I did not bought them again.
Good luck and Happy trading.
Hi Roy, Good morning,
I sold May 48 QQQQ Puts for 1.35 and IWM May 72 Puts for 1.44 Now looking for buying calls but they have moved up.
Farooq
Smartone,
Which broker do you use?
I am long May 48 QQQQ Puts @ 1.13.
Short NQ future @ 1940.25. since it is profitable so BE.
Happy trading.
Farooq
Smartone,
LSMA - Least Squares Moving Average
Also called "moving linear regression" or "regression oscillator".
This indicator displays the statistical trend of a security's price over a specified time period. This is done by linear regression analysis. The indicator is constructed by plotting the last point a linear regression trendline for each period point.
Now you do the leg work.
There is an easy way and then there is a hard way.
Moving average model
The notation MA(q) refers to the moving average model of order q:
X_t = \varepsilon_t + \sum_{i=1}^q \theta_i \varepsilon_{t-i}\,
where the θ1, ..., θq are the parameters of the model and the εt, εt-1,... are again, the error terms. The moving average model is essentially a finite impulse response filter with some additional interpretation placed on it.
Autoregressive moving average model
The notation ARMA(p, q) refers to the model with p autoregressive terms and q moving average terms. This model contains the AR(p) and MA(q) models,
X_t = \varepsilon_t + \sum_{i=1}^p \varphi_i X_{t-i} + \sum_{i=1}^q \theta_i \varepsilon_{t-i}.\,
What did you choose?
QT link in IBOX.
Happy trading.
Farooq
Hi Roy,
I did 2 R/T on May 47 QQQQ Puts,
1 bought @ 83 and sold @ 89
2 bought @ 76 and sold @ 81.
I think QQQQ want to tag Thursday's high or above, so making good money is on long side, at the same time odds also favors for down before Fed meeting.
Do you use any MA in your analysis?
Smartone,
LSMA is available in QT. Or do you want to know how it is calculated?
Happy trading.
Farooq
W@G1 QQQQ 04/28/08 for a 04/30/08 close
48.10 rayrohn
46.86 frenchee
46.24 Farooq although 48.13 have same odds. May be insider have better edge.
bob3,
Good Job.
Congratulation.
Farooq
Bob257,
Thank you for kind words.
Fasttrade,
Banking profit is always a good idea.
I went long May 47 calls at 98 Cents and sold them for 1.10.
I was busy so did not posted.
Happy trading.
Beerworld,
My indicators are in IBOX and they are on charts also. I use QT for my charts.
Most of my trading is on 5 min chart, I do use 15, 30, and 60 min charts.
I study my daily weekly charts after the close and take notes.
I do run scans for investment ideas, investments have no stops only cash and usually held for 5-10 year. I am usually 2-3 year early and 2-3 early in selling.
So now I buy slowly if it is moving in my direction.
CCI Nacona and gloe has given me better confidence in my trading.
I am thankful to them and people on that board.
NM is a good trader, losing does not make you a bad trader, lack of discipline does.
Money management is more important then any TA.
I sold my puts at 8 Cents profit. I did not took stop loss I increase position to 3 X more and that was pretty good profit because of my position size. I try to close position in options at end of the day but I do some time carry over night, Follow my friend Roy's way of option trading.
Good luck and Happy trading.
Beerworld,
My stop is usually 5-10% on options but this is a position which I may take for few days. I could be out on impulse; markets are very fluid if we go along it is fun other wise it is pain in the neck.
I may point out if you do not mind, you are still justifying your reasoning and action, you have not thought solutions.
Ask what you will add or subtract from program you are following.
Good luck and happy trading, I will be happy if I can be any help.
I just respond late when I am busy trading.
Farooq
Beerworld,
Let's talk about,
You have both calls and puts you saw market went down and 10:30 it made double bottom, I would be seller of puts there, you wrote your note around 11:48 at that time it is above EMA 34 and LSMA 34 it never threatened it, till when prices move above all indicators and hit R2 at 12:15. So why you sold early?
You are a good trader but need to untie knots in you.
I do it many times but I am improving.
Enemy is in us, you over come on that and you will be great trader.
I am long May 46 puts @ 54 Cents 6 X position.
Happy trading.
Beerworld,
Take your profits when you can, Market is here every day, If you are investor then do not watch prices before your times come.
One can not do both jobs.
Happy trading
I am long more shares then options. All in cash account no Margin. Shares will be sold after 10 years of holding or 50$ which ever comes first.
Ford has a good surprise today. I was expecting it. They should beat estimates next 28 Quarters. LOL.
Farooq
rayrohn;
Great Job.
Insiders wins again, LOL.
I need to follow you from now on.
Congratulations.
Farooq
BlissBull,
I am going to buy OCT 2008 options on DUG. I will be looking options on future also.
I want to take a defined risk, because I could be wrong any time.
Thank you very much.
Farooq
NM,
Thanks for response, I think close will be between 46.80 and 46.90 but I was wrong many times.
BlissBull,
I agree with your views on oil. I am trying to figure out what could be pure OIL play with most leverage with out future.
If you like any Vehicle please let me know.
TIA.
Farooq
NM,
If I remember correct 4cast was in 46.50 area?
So which view you are going with?
Farooq
GLENO34,
That make sense because Hillary is status quo for oil complex.
That is big money who are controlling many areas, I hope you do not think other wise.
Obama is also part of them but they are sure how in the end he will deal or how much change he will insist.
Clinton's are always pro business.
Oh yeah we will drop oil to 40 - 45 $ in coming 12 months. Every body will be happy with 2 $ oil.
That drop has nothing to do with Democrat or Republicans, it is future Iran war premium which will disappear with Cheyenne Bush going away.
Happy days are coming back. LOL.
Farooq
I was stopped out of remaining calls so bought some 46 May QQQQ puts @ 72 Cents. I am just looking for net 10 %.
Stopped out of UWM also.
Happy trading.
Today added May 46 QQQQ calls at 1.45 in yesterdays position.
Hoping to sell them at 1.80 - 1.85. Stop is now 1.60.
Went long on UWM @49.40 hoping for 51 stop is 50.10 now.
Delayed posting.
Edit: Moved stop to 1.70 half sold at 1.80.
W@G2 QQQQ 04/23/08 for a 04/25/08 close
47.77 rayrohn {lol way to bullish me thinks}
47.80 Farooq
46.84 frenchee
Roy,
Thank you very much for such a detail post. I have saved it for thinking on it in more detail.
Roy I do all those things, my dilemma is I do look 15 min chart but some time decision need to be made on split second.
You know as trader we are always looking for excellence, other wise my returns even surprise me.
I started one account from which withdrawal made biweekly so far withdrawal are 530 % I was thinking if withdrawal would be let compounded what would be the result? It support a cause. May be God has his magical power in it.
I do feel some time it is just better to enjoy the trade then trying to be prefect, I know it is not achievable but I just speak loudly.
Thank you again for all the kindness you always extend me.
Farooq
Edit: About QT, I just purposing you keep it as back up. It is your liking in the end, Stay happy that is most important thing in life.