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normally the only 'news' you hear out from Organigram was paid for by Organigram, like when they paid out 200,000 stock options in a deal to promote the stock - Chris Perry works for momentum, Momentum was paid 200,000 stock options for their promotional services, and they try to make it look like 'news'
did you know that Organigram paid Momentum 200,000 stock options for their stock promotion services, Chris Perry got paid to write that article months ago, it helped sucker people into paying over the top prices on OGI, and it was well worth the money or the dilution, without Chris Perry there wouldn't be an organigram.
I just sold most of my remaining share at .62, but I decided to go 'long' and kept 57 free shares in my retirement account. I am glad to be in 100% profit mode, the rewards of starting on the right side of stupidity.
no they are not, some LP's show a much better value than others. A company trading a little over 2 times book value is much more attractive than one that is trading close to 5 times book value. Anyways, I am just telling you that ANY trading strategy you employ that convinces you to buy OGI stock above .70 cents is ultimately a failed strategy. Anyways, that is why I still have all my money and a good chunk of this garbage stock for free.
anyone relying on press releases to make returns is pure speculation.
I try to rely on actual numbers, like price/book comparisons - if OGI is a good buy than there are even better ones in the same sector. OGI's competitors have more capital and less outstanding shares, OGI looks like a dog in comparison to their largest competitor.
I think the value of the stock you are buying is always important. Price is what you pay, value is what you get
it was the value of the company that convinced me this stock was only good to buy in the 50's - to date that is about the only profitable strategy you could have taken to make money on this stock, so maybe that is why you are so optimistic, you use a different strategy - can you tell us what it is?
Name----Book------Price-------P/B
OGI-----6---------33----------4.8
BED-----14.5------52----------3.6
TWD-----44--------102---------2.3
Price to book value industry comparison, please let me know if you think there are any errors in my numbers
Would it be acceptable to compare Organigram's price/book ratio to it's publicly traded competitors? I think it looks overvalued at this point, hard to make that point without actually making a comparison. Just figure I would ask you before involving an admin
I really hope you are right, the perfect scenario for me, OGI opens up @ .68, initiating the sale of 650 shares and leaving only 7 shares to grow in value for years to come, there are other investments in the Canadian LP market that I think are more attractive, especially if that happens.
Valuations may not matter to some investors, but for me - stock become less attractive the higher the price and the book value, the balance sheet, is always the first thing I look at. The ratio between the book value and the market value is a good way to make a head to head comparison between two companies that maybe have different share structures, different types of assets, different overall sizes.
For me, Organigram is up over 20% from my starting point and on my next trade will certainly see actual returns to be reinvested elsewhere while leaving some free stock to appreciate in value over a very long term. I was able to achieve this desirable result by paying close attention to the book value and the market value. Recently the ratio has gone from desirable to undesirable in my opinion, while another company has gone through just a dramatic change in the opposite direction. You will know I am right by the end of the month, and from here you will start seeing some real day traders start to come into these markets with real volume. Let the games begin.
Name----Book------Price-------P/B
OGI-----6---------33----------4.8
BED-----14.5------52----------3.6
TWD-----44--------102---------2.3
This is about what TMX says, except I did a little revision on TWD, because they just raised 20 million in cash but haven't had time to release an update on their book value. I think these numbers are about right at the close of trading Thursday, but I would like a second opinion. I am new at this.
Tell me I am wrong please, but didn't Tweed just raise about the equivilent of both Organigram and Bedrocan's combined book values by selling about 10 million shares? Tweed has less outstanding shares than both competitors even after that bought deal, is that why Tweed isn't a penny stock while the other ones are?
Organigram is only worth about $6 million dollars, this is a pure speculation play, glad I was on the right side of the starting line. If you can't recognize that as the truth, than thank you for trading with me :)
Organigram is a really good buy under about .54 cents, that way you can sell some shares and make some positive returns, but anything above that and you risk losing capital - anyways, that is how I played it and it is working out for me. Only way you make money with stocks is buying them low enough, now it is time to sell.
OGI has a great future, should test $1 by the end of the year
well we will see, I don't think it will move much this year compared to Tweed or Organigram. Anyways, businesses are one thing and share trades are another. This is a game, we are playing it against one another, and we all have the same goal - in a perfect market we would all benefit in equal proportion, but we don't have perfect markets, so place your bets - but I am just trying to tell you how it is. I waited to move into the LP game, and while I had to wait I did a lot of reading and a lot of thinking about these LP's.
TWD beats OGI beats BED in the upcoming months in my honest opinion, but if the share prices move so may my bets, that is the game
Smith Case:
i think the court challenge on extraction will help LP's - and I think it makes sense. Extraction starts by separating the buds from the stalks and fan leaves of the plant, further refined with the trimming of sweet leaf, leaving 'dried bud' - from there the active components can be further extracted at home or by pro's in a wide variety of ways. Extraction is already easily available to any patient with the desire to learn about it.
Allard Case:
I don't think the supreme court is going to interpret the Charter of Rights to mean that all patients with a slip from a doctor have a right to produce what they describe as medicine in their homes. That takes us down a scary road of free citizens being able to do what they want in their own homes, I just don't see that happening without a lot of blood on the street, but that is a whole other conversation.
for sure, I agree that Organigram as a business will progress, producing and distributing, etc - we are seeing more and more positive signs - but that is not the same thing as saying the share price will progress from here endlessly upwards
that is a good way to look at the story John, this is all just a game to me, to see the nasty returns you need to start on the right side of the starting line, right? I know I did, just when I had a little coin to buy I was interested in LP's and the price was low. Going to be a lot of volatility in this sector this year - and by this sector I mean HC inspected and authorized LP's - a decent trader with his head on his shoulders could make some decent coin, I just don't think it will come from buy and hold on a really large OGI position.
Prediction - OGI @ 0.63, TWD @ 2.06 - I predict that TWD outperforms OGI between now and May 1st -
Reasons - much higher P/B in favor of Tweed, their recent bought deal financing has made Tweed the best P/B out of all publicly traded LP's (that I know of, if wrong please do tell). I think Tweed's brand, their website, and especially their production are miles ahead of it's competitors, and, well, it has a huge pile of cash right now and Organigram doesn"t.
But I will try to stop being a jerk, you are cool, glad you kept your head on straight on this one, and were able to buy in a bunch when the price dropped, which must have taken some real guts after watching the stock drop for so long, I have been watching it for a much shorter time, and i was scared
thanks John for taking credit for my investment decisions, like I said before - the record on iHub doesn't lie, you started buying when I wouldn't have - like way, way, way too early. The only reason this company has any money at all is because Denis Arsenault paid momentum, AKA Chris Perry, a bunch to promote the stock. You ever listen to the Wolfofweedstreet? Those people get paid to make stock promotions. Then they sold that paper to suckers firsgàt for .85 cents, then .70 cents, then they give themselves stock options, then they start buying at $.41 - yet you are 'long' - I have major reservations - looking forward to unloading another 650 shares if the price increases a bit more, would you like to buy them at about $.68, because whoever buys at that price is buying from me first.
Between now and May 1st - Tweed outperforms OGI, that is my prediction, that is how I got my money positioned. It is easy to say bottom when the price drops dramatically one day - can you make a prediction?
there are two reasons I dont like Bedocran, their name is horrible and they are pharma to the max. Cannabis is an alternative to pharma, it loses its appeal the closer it looks like pharma, Bedocran won't be attracting much attention from potential recreational users like Tweed and OGI can. I remeber I seen Bedocran dip below .70 to .63 and I thought it was a good buy then, but I don't remember why, I got too wrapped up in OGI losing value.
Oops, that can't be right, I don't remember much when looking at the Bedocran stock. You know what. I am bored, I am going to eat some food, smoke some bud, and get into it with Bedocran, look at all their news and their numbers and see if I can make sense of it, I might actually buy some - there are a lot of actually sick people out there that might want Bedocran for the same reasons I don't like it, anyways they do seem to have the early lead in patient numbers last I remember. I kind of dismissed them early on because of their name and the fact they are Dutch - can't trust the dutch, their country will be underwater soon and they know it, so you need to be careful with people living on the edge.
and I felt the same way about OGI, in the end it all comes down to the buds, after I get a look at what they send my wife I will let you know whats up with OGI asap
I don't know if I am speculating or investing for real, I thought OGI was worth more than .53 or .52 when I bought it, but when the price dropped down to .48, then .42 - I bought more and lowered my expectations a bit, so I had no problem with selling some at .56, I never bought it that high so I figured it was a good sale, even better at .60. Am I hoping the price drops again so I may by more? Yes, but only if it drops again for no apparent reason, if they put out bad numbers I would lower my expectations even further (that I guess is speculation)
Am I hoping the price goes up? of course, I still own shares (that is investment). My expectations are simple, they can one day get 1500 customers and make $1.5 million a year in earnings, I think if they do that they will be actually worth the price they are trading at now, with some potential to get larger (so it would be a really good deal at this price, even with competition). I try to keep my expectations low in order not to be burned, they don't need to do that all this year for my expectations to be met, they just need to progress towards that goal without bad news.
Right now I buy under .56 and I would love to sell more at .68 or so.
What is your favorite strain, me and the wife trying to save money so we have only tried Leonidas, Bakerstreet, Buddy, and Argyle - we both think Argyle is crap, she likes Buddy, and my favorite - tasting some kief right now, is Leonidas, Super Silver Haze - Mmm, mmm, mmm so tasty! Almost as good as investing in a market full of chumps!
yeah, right now I got 657 shares of OGI that cost me $109 and change. Those will be mostly gone before the price tops .69 unless I hear some real numbers by then. Love to trade out 650 at .69 and keep the remaining 7, I can afford to be as long as donkey kong's dong with the remaining 7, right?
I have 1000 TWD shares I bought at an average price of $2.01. Would love to sell some of those on the way up to where you bought it at, sorry.
And I have a few hundred dollars with more on the way into my account nearly every Friday or so. My wife sells insurance, and we need to save money to pay taxes at the end of the year. Looking for better ideas on places to put this money, can't afford to be really risky with all of it.
Don't really understand options and shorts and stuff. I looked into it more and it is really complicated and really risky and there are a lot of stupid internet ads trying to get people doing it so it must be stupid. I just want to sell for more than I buy, so far I have been able to accomplish that twice, and by doing so I have somehow transferred some wealth from another investors pocket into mine.
This is being done on a much larger scale by people like Denis Arsenault and Jim Laffoley. Jim Laffoley used to live in New Brunswick, now he lives in Montego Bay - Why do you think the price of OGI went steadily down from December while the price of Jim's favorite rum went up in Montego Bay - basic supply and demand situation here. They can print shares, they can decide when to ask for money and when to dole out the good news - Denis Arsenault just made a great OGI stock promotion video days after it was released to the public that the board of directors at OGI like to sell shares at .70 cents and personally buy shares at .41
One day I would love to see Organigram buy back some of their shares at a good price (a low price is good for buyers, I want this stock low, but if it goes up cool, I can sell more!), but if it got to a good price it seems the directors of this corporation would rather just buy it up for themselves. Obviously the directors of this corporation are making better trades then me, but I just need to make better trades than the average pot stock investor to make money, and from the looks of things you just need common sense to do that.
I guess I am a little greedier, but still I thought of you when I sold, how you wanted .53 but for a day thought you might have missed out, but then you got it and you were up some money and happy.
I was thinking of that when I sold, and I took another look at TWD when you mentioned an 'entry point' - I said to myself, I am not going to just enter TWD, I am going balls deep into that sweet thang.
i think when looking at the MMPR LP stocks - I am talking about the legit HC approved producerédistibuters - the single best indicator at this point in time (the infancy) is price/book ratio.
Tweed is looking really good compared to the rest, they just raised 20 million dollars, they doubled their book value by selling 9 million shares at a premium to what it is selling for now. They sold at $2.15, now it is around $2.06, I put most of my remaining OGI funds in TWD yesterday, sold at .60 and bought TWD at $2.05
My investment now represents a much larger pool of capital in TWD than it would have in OGI
Ouch, was just reading up from the beginning of the posts on this board, it seems you were one of the early ones I am talking about, sorry
WallWeeD Wednesday, 08/27/14 03:25:07 PM
Re: None
Post #3 of 552
Crazy overvalue! Will wait until goes down to .50 cents
This guy knew what he was talking about. Number 3 post on the board, surrounded by suckers talking about how great a deal it is around $1.00
The only difference now, you don't have anybody saying they are going to wait for $.25 cents or something. The crazy thing is, I got in at about .50 out of blind luck, pure timing. Excess cash coming right when I am interested in investing, MMJ coming in line right when my wife gets sick, I didn't think this all out when I started buying. I must admit I got interested because of the difference in value between the price OGI was willing to sell shares and the market value - I would have never paid $.90 cents for this, all I know about investing is from Letters to Shareholders by Warren Buffet, read every damn one, and I learned you need to try to buy things when they are cheap, not when they trade at a premium
I am not even trying to be rude, just thinking investor stuff -
if a lot of people are dumb and think a company is worth three times or more what it is actually worth, then they print a bunch of stock and sell it. This actually increase the worth of the company, when you sell shares for more than they are worth - wealth has been created by stupid people.
Then the price goes all the way down to what it is actually worth, a person buys some shares around where it is worth, then it becomes dramatically undervalued (about .41 according to our resident PIMP Denis Arsenault), so a person buys even more, people buy shares up until the point it starts becoming a little overvalued again.
Then that person sells some shares, he still has a position that cost him almost nothing, he has his original investment back. He retains his cash hoping the price becomes more reasonable. I am actually new at this but this is what I think is happening. Trying to break it down to see what is really going on here.
You seem to know more about this then me. What do you think
that is a bummer, there is no trading today, my wife was probably just smiling nervously while thinking I am insane then
when Arsenault is smirking at about 27 mins, talking about the insider buys, don't you people realize that he is creating wealth from investors. If you sell shares at .85, then .7, then give yourself a few stock options at .5, then buy a chunk at .41 - well somewhere some investors, people that invested in HIM, got burned, they bought those shares at .85, and those same shares were sold back to him for .41 -
he is smirking because he is making a video for the people he is getting rich off of, meanwhile this guy has 25 competitors - maybe this guy thinks in the long run it is easier to print stock than to grow cannabis? Or maybe I would love to buy more shares at a good price, instead of listening to overly excited people that still need to see rises in the price to get out of this without losing cash.
Anyways, I woke up this morning and said to my wife. I hope OGI either goes up or down today, because either way I win, she smiled because she knows I am a pimp
yeah, you got me all figured out. I am an experienced day trader, i followed you from another board, and I chose to buy OGI because you were interested in it. Or maybe I really am new, and I really think that I am making money off stupid investors, not a great company.
I don't get how people on these boards value these companies. When this company was little more than a plan and a lease on a building, with a license from HC - it was trading for upwards of 100 million dollars. Go back to the very beginning of this board and you will see people talking about how it is a great deal just under a $1.00. For example, JohnCM was one of the early ones on the board.
If a company, brand new without any proven business plan, wants to sell me some shares at $,85, why would I want to buy it at that? If the person who is selling the shares cares about his company and the value of his company, he would want to sell shares for more than they are worth, right? So why would I want to buy something for more than it is worth?
I have already made a profit on Organigram, and Tweed, because I bought shares at a fraction of the cost that 'accredited investors' paid for the same damn thing just months ago. I am not making money because of news, or because of reading your posts buddy, I am making money because people like JohnCM werenèt smart enough to realize that this company just isn't worth 40 million dollars now.
Now, people are saying because Arsenault buys at .41 that means I should buy at .6 - If that is the case people, let me tell you, I got this insider deal on this nice little house in Quebec. I paid only $38,000 for it, but it is actually worth $60,000 - so anyone interested? I watched that video, it takes a hustler to spot a hustler, let me tell you all, Arsenault is a world class PIMP, he takes money, he don't make money!
remember I told you wait for .60?
I predict that the trades will head south of .6o by close, but I only stand to profit a little more by being wrong
thanks man, got that page on my favorites bar now, had no idea, I was just looking at sedar and I there was nothing new. Thought that was the only place I needed to go to do my DD. Still happy with my sales, I won't get rich off this like Denis Arsenault will, he nailed it at .41, right, lowest I bought at was .42, so I feel I am in good company, when Denis starts buying at $.60 I will be right behind him.
where can I find this stuff on insider buying - I am checking sedar but I don't see any new filings - is there a source for any of this information that is available for everyone to look at or is it just some bullshit?
what do you mean by test? the .79 test? are you waiting for someone to actually think this stock is worth $.79, because not too many people going to think that when the shares are trading low. I guess than you would think it is a really good time to buy right now, ok buddy
i am so high right now on this thing, when I saw the price dropped to .57 after my trade executed it was like I just drained a three pointer to win the game! I am loving this, so much, my remaining shares cost me nearly nothing and I got my initial investment back in the account ready to buy when this dips again!
buying time? lol, that was last week, just sold 1000 at $.60 - investing is better than weed!!!!!
oh I am not leaving, I was able to build up quite the position, selling a few thousand here and there as the stock goes up is just me making sure I see some returns, but my wife has already sent out her authorization, she will be a client soon, and I have no need to sell all my shares
i know, listening to it now, all good news, very positive - he his talking earning right now, @ around 26 mins, I might get to unload some more today!