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OK buddy thanks. I hadn't even learned of the .18 offer when I replied to your post so I didn't know what the .18 was referring to and thought you were indicating the expected pps after one year. Relieved to hear your explanation. Thought the winter blues or the smog were finally taking their toll or that I was losing my own mind-which might not be so bad if ignorance is bliss.
only 50k of the offered 500k convertible debentures were ever shown to be sold-that was Feb 2010-before the current U.S. financial backers mentioned by the PR came on board.
So that 50k has nothing to do with present events.
I've never seen a followup on a buyout in penny land either. But imo the offer is low given the expected progress/future of the company and thus am surprised by further evaluation language.
I also called freedom to verify. This must be the only buyout freedom has on the table because without mentioning CWRN,they said the PR was accurate,that they had had a bid for .15 and now have a bid for .18,but,as per Mr Jacobs, he wasn't allowed to say anything more.
Have no idea whether freedom is legit-only 1 page web as itmd said--haven't had time to dd that,but I would think CWRN would be getting better offers in the future. CWRN could be at that price in a few months on its own. See my earlier lengthy post today before learning of this new bid.
Your numbers forget the buyback and retirement of insider shares.
1.75 B current insider shares(I believe the investor is non-dilutive debt structure)plus float. Last known float 299 million. Unlikely shares were issued for anything other than incidentals- especially when they saw buyback coming and Bob always refers to pinksheets when people ask about O/S-implying pinksheets figures are at least in the ballpark.
And the permit where they are mining was free-grandfathered on old Cemex permit,as Bullitt reported-which I would expect to be the only substantial cost possibly not fronted by backer.
Nobody has estimated float over 1B and most guess 300-700m. Itmd pointed out that 3B shares had previously been retired and indicated max of 3B O/S. End of day trade price times O/S equals market cap. Pinksheets is using 2.308 B O/S to compute market cap-and again since Bob keeps referring to those figures they should be in the ballpark and Bob keeps indicating a non-dilutive structure.
I agree with your posts. Entreprenuers often spend a lifetime before success and most never achieve it. If it was easy many more would be doing it.
Bob and Sharon have finally found the right formula after 6-7 years in this line of work and their U.S. financial backers obviously have deep pockets-as the PR says they are ready to back much bigger ventures. Both of these reasons explain why the consortium is asking CWRN to be the operational partner.
I don't think its any accident that Bobs wife Sharon has full mining degree(s)- and she is still young. Bob and Sharon have been looking at or involved in mining ventures in other countries.
After a share buyback of 60% and commensurate retiring of insider shares in a structured plan(see Nov PR and my previous posts)there may be only ca 1 billion shares.
Even if the company makes only 135 million/year w a profit margin of 50% that would be 6.75 cents earning/share. And yes the investor would receive a portion of that-see below. At a conservative PE of 10(which should certainly be exceeded after 1 year)that would be 67.5 cents/share.
SOP would produce further buybacks after the 60% buyback(see my previous posts),resulting in higher earnings/share or compensating for the major backers return.
Buyout companies know this and make unsolicited (as this one was)offers hoping the company will accept a quick profit after doing the hard work.
In a year he could get buyout offers much more than ten times the recent offer and, even without any other events implied in previous PR's, in a couple years would be approaching standard 3 for one particular major exchange(AMEX)w min pps of 2 dollars(but not the $5 min for NASDAQ absent other events).
A comparable buyout offer in a year w a pps of .675 would be OVER $4/share(presumed .025 at time of offer times 6 equals the recent offer of .15/share; .675 times 6 equals $4.05). So I would think Bob would wait for a much higher offer before considering it.
Current pps is greatly undervalued because the first ship has not sailed and ce etc-both of which should be satisfied in the next few weeks. I hope people understand that to get the ce removed THIS month means they will post current financials THIS month and obtain "current info" pinksheet status,as noted in previous posts,probably after they record earnings for the first shipload.
An analogy to current CWRN shareholders,many of whom have already made as much as 135 times on their investment(ca current pps of ca .027 divided by .0002 price months ago).
Some will sell for a quick profit but not if they realize the pps appreciation that should occur in the next month-an appreciation that is not likely to be exceeded by any other stock.
As to his announcement of the offer,he would have absolutely no reason to make that up(even if you did not believe in his character)-especially in the process of removing the improperly applied ce. And it is good practice to keep stockholders informed especially when there has been so much speculation re the issue.
Bob seems to be enjoying this success as he should. If he was ready to take it easy and retire why would he be personally answering hundreds of emails and phone calls-unlike any other CEO. If he wanted to semi-retire he could turn all such hands on tasks over to others while still reaping benefits from the tremendous growth in the company.
True. And one of the reasons CWRN stopped pre-revenue caretaker reporting was because it was only increasing accounting and attorney fees.
Avoidance of additional rules/costs is also why many foreign blue chips plus well knowns like Adidas use the highest OTCBB tier-the OTCQX(172 companies last I looked). Those companies are either well known or have achieved stock price on overseas exchanges and are merely using OTCQX to tap an additional market.
But in CWRN's case ,they reportedly desire,as per PR, to move to higher exchange because they are not otherwise well known and don't have a bluechip foreign exchange listing. Thus they would need a larger investment pool to raise PE from perhaps 10(because pinky land punishes non-well known revenue producing domestic companies)to a reported industry average of 33.
And yes it does surprise many people to learn there are pinksheet companies trading over $100/share. Most brokers know almost nothing about pinky land and are not aware of tremendous strides towards transparency since 1999.
Look at itmd estimates in stickies and estimates by myself,masscommuter,killswitch etc. If you realize iron was only ca $28/ton 7 years ago,you might recognize profit margin to be 50% on over 200 million revenue at projected shipping/month.
After the initial 60% buyback and very possible proportionate retiring of insider shares (see Nov PR and my past posts),there may only be ca 1 billion shares O/S. And SOP would involve further buybacks of undervalued shares.
That was from the Nov 9 PR. The dredging was finished in January.
According to the # of trucks and 48.5 ton legal limit and roundtrip times reported by pesquero,by the time the ship comes in they may surprise us w a 75k Panamax (usually 39' draft),for they intended on using Panamax after the dredging was done-see PR's.
Only caution to that is first contract last reported was 105k which would be equivalent of 3 35k Handymax(average 33' draft).But w a repeating contract or a second contract...because Panamax would be more cost efficient as long as the port equipment does the loading.
There is no indication of a R/S in near future and such would only be done after other methods failed to raise price high enough for NASDAQ-and absent unusual events,that is years away. Buybacks and retirement of insider shares have already been reported by PR as near-term steps to increase price for eventual higher exchange and as I've mentioned the OTCBB OTCQX would be a relatively easy intermediate step.
The only reason any workers from China would be present would be to recheck the ore-which has already been checked many times at least since 2008 for sulphur(low in sulphur-a good thing)and iron content. Tested at 59-63% iron before magnetic separating.
Buyers have reportedly tested the ore-the Chinese are very thorough at those things even though their own ore is much lower quality.
Somebody-Maxshocker?-posted that the woman(closest to the camera) in the next to last picture of the pics itmd just added to the stickies is Sharon Vasquez-V.P of CWRN(and Pres of the Mex sub),who is Bob Cottons wife. She has a lot of mining experience and I understand a degree from the Univ of Madrid-which has a reputation as a good University.
They aren't going to use containers. That was an early idea for the bagged 1-3mm superfines,which they've said they will throw on top of the bulk 3-18mm ore. Then there was an option of storing the ore in containers at the port more recently-which could be used to load ore onto the ship-dump containers-but as you can see from the port ore staging area they rejected that idea.
They should be using a bulk carrier-I assume the ship will arrive next week-possibly Wed evening-2 days after "around the end of February." According to dd posted by others they should have enough ore at port at least for a 35k Handymax now and should be more.
The only people bailing today would be nervous nellies tricked again by special interest groups as "slick50' so elegantly described.
Read the summary dd posted just this morning if you are nervous. One week for ship to be loading would make no difference near term while 24 hour mine production and ca 16 hour/day trucking continue.
Just to make it clear: my original figures and the figures now assume 3 months full production/shipping-at least 105,000 tons/month-the original definition proposed ca December by CWRN for full production/shipping.
Since then they have added a 3rd shift and semi official spokesman(I'll let them speak for themselves in case their estimate has changed) have proposed 150k tons production/month.
So,if shipping is less than 105k tons/month,the predicted pps after 3 months would have to be reduced accordingly.
After learning customs at the port(for receiving the trucks)is closed 10pm to 7am ,that would reduce the amount trucked by 18 trucks("and climbing")at the legal limit to a rough estimate of 70k tons/month(two 35k Handymax),using pesqueros round trip times for night and day(but not knowing how many exact hours to assign to night vs day)and pesqueros estimate of net loads. More if there are more than 18 trucks now.
They are reported to be producing more at the mine than they are trucking,so they could be producing close to 100k tons/month now at the mine.
Yes-that approximates the pps I arrived at after 3 months revenues-assuming PE of 10. O/S could be larger but shouldn't be much larger. 2.308- 1.75B insider shares would equal 558 m float.
If O/S is larger, then float is larger but should be in ballpark for reasons I noted in previous posts,plus Bob refers to pinksheets figures when people ask him about share count.
And even if float is substantially larger the company very well could do another buyback later-after the 60% buyback-that is SOP when shares are undervalued(market hasn't caught up to the revenues etc)and for other important reasons also:
E.g preventing hostiles from accumulating substantial undervalued shares and to facilitate earlier entry to higher exchange(though that would be a long way off absent particular events).
After all, BHP and other large iron companies are spending $5-10 billion this year alone to buy back their stock e.g at $65/share.
So, if everything goes smoothly,a ten bagger within 3 months of first shipping.
Possibly the largest unknown variable is the PE-because the strange world of penny land punishes companies with substantial revenues(that's why itmd and I used very conservative PE of 10 instead of a reported industry average of 33-the iron industry is a very bullish market).
It all depends on how big the investment pool gets-how fast it takes the big boys to learn this is a greater ROI than almost any blue chip.
When and how do the big boys learn?
One way, after getting audited financials and a minimum share price of ten cents- is to apply to the premier OTCBB tier-the OTCQX-(which presently only has 172 companies-e.g Adidas last I looked) where institutional investors are much more likely to discover CWRN. You can research the various tiers at otcmarkets.com
As of close of market yesterday, CWRN market cap was $58.4 million(the listed 2.308 billion O/S multiplied by last traded price of .0253 equals ca 58.4 million). otcmarkets.com,under company info.
The only hurdle left in the transition to substantial revenues is the loading of the ship.
CWRN is paid once ship is loaded(CFR shipping responsibility for the load passes to buyer once iron passes over the ships rails)-some say they have already been paid for first load in this sellers market.
Based on 18 plus trucks "and climbing"(Bob by way of itmd ca Feb 3-see itmd's post and pics ca that date) and the legal limit of 48.5 tons and the round trip times posted by pesquero(who works at the port)they have enough iron for a 35k Handymax now and probably more. Maybe they will surprise w a Panamax.
The contract may very logically be repeating(with adjustment for spot)and/or a second contract could have been signed by now.
They had stockpiled enough at the mine(165k tons)before beginning trucking to ensure they would have enough iron for continuous trucking-and with a 3rd shift added at the mine weeks ago they are reportedly producing iron faster than they are trucking it.
It looks like they are employing the same strategy they did with the mine stockpile before trucking. I.e,making sure they have more than enough for the ship.
Pesquero previously noted they would be shipping every 2 weeks once shipping began.
Various sources have estimated production at 100k to 150k ton/month soon.
At 100k ton/month and present spot of $190/ton that is 228 million revenue/year w expected 50% profit margin(iron was only ca $28/ton 7 years ago). Spot is expected to average at least $200/ton for the year due to many unusual supply disruptions in Australia,Brazil and India.
The current share price reflects a standard penny company with no revenue but they are transitioning to substantial actual revenue(probably 2 Handymax 35000 dmt ships or larger ships/month-possibly 2 75k Panamax ships/month once all the bugs are worked out).
This is extremely rare for a penny stock and is the first junior miner I am aware of to make this transition since I've been in penny stocks.
Read the estimates of valuations in the stickies and by myself and others and factor a very conservative PE of 10 into the revenues and see what price you get after 3 months. You will be surprised and your question will be answered.
Caveat-there are no guarantees in practically anything in life but this is the best I've found in penny stocks after researching 1000's of penny stocks.
They will soon be buying back 60% of the estimated 400 to 750 million plus float-a standard practice(once a company transitions to substantial revenues-even the biggest iron companies are buying back their stock-flush w cash now) that benefits shareholders and the company in many ways-and probably retiring an equal % of the insider shares-see PR's and my previous posts.
So this consolidation phase and its little ups and downs(which mean nothing long term)is just a staging area for much greater things.
Imo if one is nervous about this stock they shouldn't be in penny stocks.
CWRN's concessions are largely surrounded by the private mining company Navrial(spelling?). They are primarily iron also(but not producing yet)and also have some silver and perhaps other minerals.
But to my knowledge the current CWRN concession(Baja 14)being mined has no gold-none has yet been reported. It is almost literally a mountain of iron. Or not enough gold to be economically feasible and I've heard that recovery rate for gold declines dramatically if less than 1 gram/ton.
Thanks buddy. I suspected that-it looked like early morning and they save time by beating rush hour,even if they have to wait a few minutes before the custom gates open.
I would agree,except for the estimate of iron prices a few years from now. Agmetalminer reported on 12-13-10,that internal Chinese production costs set a floor on iron prices. They reported currently the internal Chinese cost of production was $150/ton.
This is largely due to the low grade of domestic Chinese iron ore-averaging only 30% iron,w some Chinese producers only 12%.
As the Chinese use up their best domestic supplies and reach for even lower % domestic iron,their cost of production is not likely to fall. And if they can get foreign supplies in a few years for less than internal cost,why would they even produce internally? And if they stopped internal production that would tend to push up prices again if they fell to that point.
True. But in the light of possibly 250 million rev/year once ships start sailing,any price that we might expect for a buyback in next month or so will be cheap-shares will still be undervalued.
And I would agree w your estimate of tons at port.
They had been trucking for weeks when Bob,by way of itmd,supplied trucking pictures ca Feb 2-4. At that time there were 15 trucks "and climbing daily". With the round trip times and net tons/truck supplied by pesquero,I would think they would have well over one 35k Handymax shipload at port.
I'm still wondering whether customs is open 24/7 to receive trucks on the graveyard shift-nobody I've asked has been able to answer that question. That might explain why the 6 trucks or so were lined up waiting for customs at the port in a recently supplied picture.
Your own link disproves your contention,as noted below from your link:
"Generally, OTC Markets will remove the Caveat Emptor designation once the security meets the qualifications for Current Information and we are satisfied that there is no longer a public interest concern, typically no sooner than 30 days".(emphasis added).
It has been just over 30 days since learning of the ce. Ce is not automatically removed no matter how clean the company. Even when current financials are posted there is typically the 30 day wait since the ce was applied.
Also ce is a pinksheet classification matter. It per se has nothing to do w the SEC. Pinksheets told me there was no evidence of fraud by the company-only a PERCEIVED promotion,as special interest groups falsely charged. Hence,the SEC would have no interest in this matter.
The other insinuations/scare tactics repeatedly recycled in your posts have been abundantly disproved also.
One shouldn't have to add to their CWRN holdings by falsely accusing the company. There have been many months to add to ones holdings without such tactics.
I agree. The CE was a desperate tactic by special interest groups-who had been artificially depressing stock for months and then lost control when people recognized this was a real company-by falsely accusing CWRN of a promotion. There was no promotion and nobody has even attempted to provide any evidence of a promotion.
For newbies who want to know the reason for the ce,see my posts from Jan 13-15. Including 19117(otctrading told me reason was a PERCEIVED promotion because stock doesn't usually rise/gap several days running without a promotion)and 19261 and 19537.
Even though there was no wrongdoing on CWRN's part,that is how this penny game is played at the dirtiest levels by special interest groups. Thus, pinksheet rules now require CWRN to meet "current info" status by posting current financials before ce is removed.
Since Bob met this issue head on and w full force in the last PR(which was carefully understated re company projections so it wouldn't look like a promotion),this has led to some speculation that CWRN may post financials for the last quarter instead of waiting for mid April posting of 1st quarter financials.
Or they could change the fiscal year(so they could post anytime between now and April) or post first shipment revenues to book,so there would be some revenue to report in any last quarter filings.
The reason they had not been posting since late 2009 was lack of revenue to report. Postings increase accounting and attorney expenses-so there didn't seem any good reason to post-there wasn't anything of any real value to the investor in such no revenue caretaker postings(prior to spring 2010).
Recent dredging increased depth in general to 14.5 meters but 15 meters at EIT terminal and 16 m in navigation area.
105000 ton contract seemed to imply 3 Handymax of 35000,especially as dredging was not apparently finished at early Jan supposed signing of the contract-finished very soon thereafter,which may have specified the ship size. Though they could surprise w one Handymax and one Panamax. But I doubt they would be using anything larger than 75000 dmt Panamax.
Even w dredging pesquero pointed out 105 k ca max size ship.
Also,in case of problems w using agricultural conveyors to load iron,the Handymax size ships are designed to load and unload independent of any port equipment,because the Handymax ships often visit smaller ports that don't have loading equipment.
We used to think trucking would be the bottleneck but with 18 trucks many days ago and climbing(Bob by way of itmd)and pesquero's estimate of load size and round trip time- w 18 trucks they were transporting 5000 tons/day.
Pinksheets does require current info status-financials w current info attorney letter- to remove CE, as noted by another poster above,according to otcmarkets.com. Which seems like overkill but other companies had to comply w current info status to remove ce,even though without ce they could've chosen "no info" or "limited info" status.
I understand this. My post is not a negative post. Some have been speculating in their posts that the co received the IP report but it was so bad they are hiding it etc.
I offer an alternative to that negative speculation. You miss the entire point of my post-which is that maybe the geo expert is waiting for the pond IP so he can issue one comprehensive report-instead of issuing an incomplete report(which is what it would be without the pond IP-Ithink we all agree). And maybe there is mis-communication re this between the co and the IP expert.
The other possibility I mention so the company could solve such a problem--is mis-communication between WOLV and the IP expert on another issue.
E.G. One particular time I contracted and paid for an appraisal and after providing initial info needed by the appraiser left him to do his work -so as not to pressure him,expecting him to inform me when the appraisal was finished.
Then,without my knowledge,somebody whom the appraiser had never even met told the appraiser to stop the appraisal-they had no right to tell the appraiser this-and to top it off the appraiser never even told me -so I waited for an appraisal that never came.
Things happen. To be HELPFUL I am pointing out a couple of things that could happen-and by pointing these things out the responsible people could communicate w each other to make sure these roadblocks don't exist in this case.
Just because one is not a member of this boards inner circle does not mean they are an enemy to the point that even a positive post is misunderstood as an attack.
Exactly. If it were not for the technicalities of Mexican law,there would be no Mexican corp-only the parent-CWRN.
Wholly owned means 100%. Anything beyond that gets into technicalities that are irrelevant for our purposes. Apart from NAFTA'S technicalities and the U.S nexus text(which is of no concern to stockholders), all income passes thru to the parent-CWRN-and thus CWRN's stockholders.
See my replies to yawns posts months back. Mex sub is wholly owned by CWRN. See my Dec post re buyback and retirement. They don't buyback insider shares-they already own them-they simply retire them at no cost to stockholders-thats why PR re these things says STRUCTURED PLAN COMBINATION w insider shares being "RETIRED".
CWRN name change to Pan Am LLC doesn't change any relationships.
I don't know where the reverse merger idea comes from.
CWRN will simply be changing its corp name to better reflect operations(w cusip change).
Mex law required the creation of the Mexican sub. And CWRN,before and after its name change to Pan Am LLC is still registered in the U.S.(Nevada) w relationship w sub denoted by docs referred to in the last PR.
As long as Mex law requires the existence of a Mex (sub)corp and as long as CWRN,no matter what corp name it uses,is registered in U.S., I don't know why or if a merger could/would occur.
Mex sub is private and does not have or issue shares.
The Mex sub is wholly owned-other than the technicalities of Mex law and the trustee agreement-why would there be a merger w a wholly owned sub?
I'm not necessarily addressing your post(so don't feel offended because some of these things may not apply to your post) but I'm addressing a number of posts confused about the relationship between the Parent and the sub-all these questions have been answered before-there is no cause for alarm.
Yes. I and possibly masscommuter and killswitch and itmd and others have done pps estimates at various points. I and possibly masscommuter for 32 million quarter.
Ensenada is semi-desert-11 inches rainfall/year and due to low relative humidity ore should dry easily enough if it gets wet. They have mining "washing machines" for ore so getting wet is not a terminal condition.
Don't know the taxes ,licenses ,fees. They are only taxed once-its irrelevant to us by which taxing authority. The nexus/Jurisdiction test for taxing etc would normally give Mexico J for taxing but somebody said NAFTA rules would divide income evenly between the U.S. and Mexico. Not even their accountant knows what their taxes will be.
Many U.S. Corp's pay little or no tax due to deductions etc. CWRN will have millions in carryover losses to deduct from prior non-producing years.
CWRN owns 100% of its mining concessions and does not share those concessions w other companies. Mining/env/semarnet permits paid for.
License fees usually minimal. Total employees at full production unknown.
Contract prices generally quarterly based on some average of the spot for last month(India has recently added iron futures to its market and presumably other markets have same so prices could become more forward looking). Where do you get the 85% of spot? I would presume they get 100% of spot(even if spot they use is average for last 30 days).
Doubloon previously reported the IP was finished ca 12-22-10,though we learned later they had not done the more or less critical pond area due to above normal December temps(pond needed to be frozen so the team wouldn't be zapped w 600 volts-though I showed the 50 consecutive days of temps in Oct and Nov should've been cold enough to freeze the shallow pond).
Its also been reported that an IP by apparently the same outside expert was done for another Labrador mining Co in Dec and the other company has had their results since mid-Jan.
Doubloons late Jan dinner w the President indicated the company had not yet received the results.
Thus,I was wondering whether the outside expert was waiting for the pond IP so one comprehensive IP report could be compiled-though wouldn't the company be aware of that by the time Doubloon had dinner w the CEO-or would that be considered inside info?
Or could there be mis-communication-w both WOLV and the outside expert waiting for the other to contact re the pond IP?
I would think it has been cold enough since Dec 22 to have completed the pond IP since then. The average temps now are a high of 9 degrees F and low of minus 4,which presumably represents a warming towards spring from the coldest average temps of the year in Jan.
Just using some logic- nobody has offered this possibility-have been holding many many months and down 50% like most. So,since this board is famous for attacking those not in the inner sanctum,let me have it for trying to shed possible light on the subject.
As I understand it the Colorado filing you refer to was an unauthorized and probably illegal filing by Dean. That's one of the new wrinkles occupying Jeffs attention and reason for delay of more thorough update as Jeff indicates.
"Last time" because of impending legal action against Dean to stop his unlawful interference. You can't believe anything in those unlawful filings- including the erroneous statement of Joshua as Pres.
Yes ,as Rodney Dangerfield sang in the movie "Back to School",rage against the dying of the light. Precious few are and everything went downhill after he died(humor). spot ca 183.36.
Nobody knows exact shares but otcmarkets list 2.308 B O/S--3B were retired earlier(itmd cite).
Since Bob et al have 1.75 B shares that leaves a difference of 588 million as possibly the float,especially as Bob refers people to pinksheets(otcmarkets.com)for share count-implying it has not changed-though estimates of float range from 350-700 M plus.
Last known float 299M-I assume CWRN paid for permits and incidentals via issuance ca summer 2010 while backer paid for equipment. Permit costs were unexpectedly(to me) low for current mining site permit because grandfathered on old CEMEX permit-as reported by Bullitt.
If 2.308 is accurate my previous posts estimate ,after the structured plan COMBINATION of 60% BUYBACK and similar 60% RETIREMENT of insider shares-to keep the same ratio of 60% company control,they would have only 923 M O/S.
Which is normal unless you want to invite a hostile takeover-something I personally fought after I turned a company over to somebody else(who got into bed w others for unlawful personal gain) to move onto bigger things.
After 50% 1.15 B,after 60% only 923 M shares. They need to do this to raise prices sufficiently to escape the incessant games of penny land and to prevent hostiles from accumulating undervalued shares etc.
According to standard models,they could very well have additional buybacks after the 60% to accomplish the noted objectives. The most successful companies in 1-2 dollar/share range have reduced float to 20-50M.
They've tested the ore BEFORE separation at 59-63%. 62% is the benchmark for which quotes are given and price varies some % per % of variation from benchmark. They have high quality 62%(and more)ore as does Brazil(recent floods)Australia(record floods and recent cyclone 5).
China domestic production averages only 30% Fe(agmetalminer.com/2010/12/13)and as low as 12% which is partly why China needs to import so much. China's domestic cost of ca $150/ton(ibid)sets a floor for iron prices,which some expect to reach as high as $250(previous Reuters/Bloomberg articles).
Don't know rate of production,especially as just added a third shift. Near end of Dec they had 118k stockpiled and in mid jan? 165k-which is what they wanted before trucking ,which was delayed ca 2 weeks beyond that point during price/shipping negotiations.
CWRN has said in PR's they intend 105k shipping/month and itmd has recently said 150k/month.
Current spot of 183.4 is static due to Feb 2-8 Chinese holiday but after the holiday the price rise is expected to continue to a very credible avg of 200 plus for the year,as per news articles.
Your numbers are erroneous and these questions have been asked and answered many times. As per pinksheets there are 2.308 B O/S minus Bob et als 1.75B privately held equals 588 million float. Float could be higher but probably not by much as investor paid for equipment and permits were surprisingly in inexpensive and only 299 million float before permits.
So at 600 m float and 60% buyback that is 360 million bought at your proposed .02/share would be $7,200,000.
Their possible income of 200 to 350 million/year once fully running dwarfs buyback costs.
There are also other important reasons why a company would want to buyback its undervalued shares.
So it is normal for companies to buyback once they have sufficient revenues. See my previous posts.
Right. Nobody has ever forwarded any evidence re a promotion by the company. They haven't even attempted to. Some newsletters mentioned CWRN-along w other stocks-but those newsletters were not doing a promotion and were certainly not paid by CWRN. Since I have held CWRN (August 2009) I don't remember any promotion and CWRN has confirmed they have not run any promotions.
Since some cry wolf special interest group are trying to link this w the SEC-I repeat again this is NOT an SEC matter.
It is merely a pinksheet classification matter that will be cleared up.
Otc trading desk emphasized there was no evidence or indication of fraud-just a PERCEIVED promotion.
I have answered this question at length in replies to another poster-who was a doubter at that time but is now a believer. See my past posts.
The Mexican sub is wholly owned by CWRN. The primary reason why the Mexican affiliate was created was to comply w Mexican law that the mine be run by a Mexican company headed by a Mexican national(Bobs wife),w Bob as V.P.and legal contracts between the sub and parent.
CWRN's changing of parent name to Pan Am .U.S.(still chartered in Nevada) to more closely reflect the nature of the mining operations,has no effect on this relationship.
For Bob to somehow run w the money would make him a lifelong fugitive and destroy everything he has worked so hard to build.
If you knew anything about Bob and his life,you would know he is not going to pull some stunt.
Exactly. CWRN did not run any promotions. And otc trading desk told me there was no indication of fraud -so this has nothing to do w the SEC.
CWRN was wrongfully accused by special interest groups who were being killed by the rapid price rise. So they flooded pinksheets w complaints.
Pinksheets looked at the multi-day rapidly rising/gapping charts and ,ASSUMED,based on the FALSE ACCUSATIONS by SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS,that there was a promotion.
Because stock doesn't usually rise like that without a massive promotion. But there was no promotion.
Pinksheets didn't realize CWRN was one rare penny breaking through to substantial revenues and one of the reasons the price exploded is because it had been artificially depressed for many months by the same special interest groups crying wolf.
Check my past posts reporting my conversation w the otc trading desk(pinksheets).
When you were in the ready to flip sell your shares you had many posts like this,saying that nothing could go wrong.
You even had a post saying "check my history .I am never wrong." Despite your earlier post saying you were wrong and there was no dilution.
Just to let others know the flipping game some are playing here. A post days ago even had a graph showing that special interest groups knocking the stock were doing so so they could buy low and sell high on a regular basis.
iphone4 Member Level Share Tuesday, November 09, 2010 10:17:27 AM
Re: i.t.m.d. post# 9527 Post # of 26012
Great post i.t.m.d.I am 100% convinced. 36 cents per share in worst case scenario will bring great profit, but it will be a dollar or evev more. CWRN is the company with greatest potential I have ever seen. Its time to buy guys. It will be to late soon, veeeeeeeeeery soon
CWRN is the first mining co to start using the port so CWRN had to buy the mining specific conveyors for the port. They are rated at 2000 dmt/hour. Pesquero could confirm port hours. I didn't think port had a night shift but others indicate CWRN is trucking 24 hours/day.
Assuming 1500dmt/hr for 75000 tons is 50 hours -so IF port is able to load 24 hrs/ day I would guess yes-w two shifts they would be close-depending on how much positioning etc time before loading.
PR's so far -best info publicly available- is an initial contract for 105,000 tons. That would be three 35000 Handymax ships. They were going to begin w Handymax,not 75000 ton Panamax,partly because of recent dredging-which is now finished.
I would assume there is also a comfort factor in beginning w the smaller ships to make sure all bugs are worked out. Partially same reason they waited until they had 165000 tons or more stockpiled before they began trucking-so trucks could run continuosly without a break in the flow.
Like you,I appreciate we have a man (pesquero)at ground zero to report on the port etc.
Nice pictures-better pics than I found in my research.
But note that your super monster truck and the trucks CWRN is using both have 5 load bearing axles. (6 is the max load bearing axles of any bulk truck I've seen in my research).
That would seem to indicate they are in the same ballpark weightwise and since your monster truck is rated at 107,000 pounds and if we are dealing w 2204.62 pound metric tons(1000 kg) in Mexico that would be 48.54 tons,close to the Mexican legal limit of 48.5 tons-a limit that can be raised by permit etc.(e.g in U.S can permit up to 52.5 tons in some states).
And iron is the heaviest? regular class mineral by volume so CWRN's trucks need not have the same volume as something used to haul lighter minerals and much lighter agricultural bulk.
Best info we have from recent PR's is 35000 metric tons/ship--Handymax ship class-- 3 shiploads for first contract of 105,000 dmt.
When they feel comfortable they have worked out any bugs in the process, and now that the dredging has been finished and the port can handle post-Panamax ships(as per pesquero),CWRN previously has said they would transition to 75,000 dmt Panamax ships.
Port is a minimum 14.5 meter depth now w 16 meter navigation area,as per new official port video posted days ago by somebody else. Handymax average 33 feet draft and Panamax 39 feet draft.
By post-Panamax I assume pesquero is referring to the width and depth of the Panama canal after it is widened/deepened-which last I heard was expected in 2014.
In other words the port in its recent dredging was preparing to handle post-Panamax ships-the best ports are doing this so as not to lose any business once the canal is widened/deepened-for shipbuilders are already planning if not building new post-Panamax ships.
Presently the Panamax class ships are constructed so close to the canals max dimensions it slows their transit through the canal and is a headache to the canal workers.
CWRN's ships do not go thru the canal(just to avoid confusion) and I and others have guessed a 12 day transit to China.
Yes remember the facts people instead of being blown about by every wind of manipulation so common to pennies. Look at the unprecedented dd in the stickies and my, pesquero, killswitch, temeku, surrogateson, Bullitt,tlc2 etc posts.
These games are one reason why the company is going to buyback and retire ca 60% of the float[they may decide to retire and buyback more later,especially at these undervalued prices-that would be typical of profitable firms] and the insider shares as part of raising price enough to escape the OTCBB.
CWRN is a rare real penny company w full 24 hour production- trucking ore to the port w an initial signed contract for ca $20 million. Once everything is flowing smoothly they expect 105000 to 150000 tons/month. At present spot of ca $184 that is $230 to $330 million/year,which would support the 850 million market cap required for quick NASDAQ listing.
People are complaining about 3 weeks before shipping-unreal!!
Most mining stocks have delays of years and are years from production.
According to estimates by itmd ,myself and others this stock should be a ten bagger in the next few months alone. You are unlikely to find that elsewhere-I haven't been able to. This is the first(out of thousands of pennies I've researched)to break through to substantial real revenues.
The CE label was improperly applied. Shorters/etrade had been artificially depressing price in an essentially unprecedented fashion imo and others experience for many months. When people finally realized substantial revenues were on the way,special interest groups were no longer able to completely artificially depress the price. So they bombarded pinksheets w false complaints of promotion by the company.
There was no promotion by the company but due to the shorters false complaints pinksheets looked at the charts and FALSELY PRESUMED there was a promotion because 99% of the time price doesn't rise dramatically many days running without massive promotion by many newsletters.
So it was a case of guilty until proven innocentwhich is the opposite of the court system.
(Promotions are almost synonymous w the penny market-the problem is the company usually does not have the fundamentals to back a promo and most newsletters will sell their grandmother for a penny. CWRN has NOT had a promo but is building solid fundamentals.)
So special interest groups committed the fraud and now are again manipulating the ignorant because of the mistakenly applied CE.
What frustrates me most about pennies is many peoples inability or unwillingness not only to do dd themselves but too lazy to read the unprecedented dd done by many on this board.
If people had read and understood the dd on this board the price would have risen earlier and not jumped when the ignorant saw the 32 million projected in the headline of the 12-30 PR.
So the special interest groups and ignorant and promo players all had their role in the sudden multi-day price rise that LOOKED LIKE a promo when there was NO promo by the company-so don't blame the company.
A more dishonest firm would have buried the CE issue in the PR instead of making it the headline-which only played into the false accusers hands. But then most everybody who has personally spoken w Bob,including myself,finds him honest and sincere-so he doesn't play games and tackled the issue head on.
CWRN is in the process of fulfilling all requirements to remove the ce- which does not affect the companies fundamentals.
imo
Thursday, December 30, 2010 1:52:46 PM
Re: microcaps1 post# 15352 Post # of 24979
rrss44,re Scottrade, see masscommuters post 13792 on 12-10-10