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Rasica is a know pumper of penny stocks. Apparently he's now on the payroll of a dinar dealer. He was a mod on this board, but admin removed him because he kept on deleting post that he didn't like, even though they were facts.
I’m sure that most understood, but I will give a more detailed explanation just for you.
The Kuwait Central Bank issues currency. They had issued less than 400 million dinars when Saddam invaded. Sitting in the vault or vaults of the Kuwait CBI were billions of un-issued dinar. Saddam stole those billions, so with only millions on the street, then Saddam stealing and flooding the market with billions, that’s why people lost confidence in the currency.
Very few people made money on Kuwait. It's a pumpers fantasy.
Kuwait had less than 400 million dinars at the time. Yes, less than 400 million. Saddam stole billions of dinars from the central bank. That drove down the street price, the official rate never changed, bank accounts remained stable, it was only the cahs on the street...so some people panicked and traded their dinar for a lower rate. As soon as the war was over, Kuwait isssued a new currency and checked the serial number on every single dinar exchnaged. They honored none of the dinar stolen by Saddam. They started with less than 400 million, and finished with less than 400 million.
Iraq on the other hand... they had 20 billion at one time and now have 35 trillion.... MASSIVE difference.
How many times will you mislead this board by posting that CRAP out of context. Yes they are buying back dinar, but anyone can understand that they are buying back dinar to fund the budget. Last year Iraq’s budget was 90 trillion dinar!!! We just saw an article where 60 percent of expenditures were in dinar and the other 30 percent was in foreign currency. That means Iraq spent 60 trillion dinars last year for their budget.
Where do you think that dinar comes from? Santa????
60 trillion dinar spent on the budget means they need to buy back 5 trillion a month. That 1.5 trillion you keep refering to doesn't come close to keeping up with that... and that's why the M2 is growing and is now over 32.5 trillion
LOL... GREAT NEWS!!!! 1.88 Billion barrels a day.
That means $24.25 billion a year... I guess the reval is back on!!!!!
Oh wait, that's still a full 1/4 of what they wanted the budget to be for 09. And still at less than half the level where they claim they will have "severe financial problems"!
Oil prices fell about 10% today. Now down to $35.35.
Iraq also just reported their oil production had dropped from about 2 miilion barrels a day down now to 1.6 million barrels a day.
That makes for barely over $20 billion a year from oil. Iraq is IN A WORLD OF HURT!
Iraq wanted a $100 billion budget for 09.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=65418
Iraq then cut the budget to $67 billion... and that is still based on $62 a barrel oil.
http://www.javno.com/en/economy/clanak.php?id=198053
Bloomberg News
WASHINGTON — Iraq will have "severe financial problems" and probably will need to borrow money to close a budget shortfall if oil prices stay below $80 a barrel next year, the nation's ambassador to the U.S. said.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008528984_iraqoil17.html?syndication=rss
Oil is now less than half of when that article was written. IRAQ IS SCREWED!!! There is no way they revalue their currency. Devalue is more likely at this point.
The US dollar problems are a totally different issue. But I can't see any positive in hoping for the value of the $ to fall to the level of the dinar... then you will have 2 totally worthless currencies.
LOL… The United States, with a 13 Trillion dollar GDP, and the preferred reserve currency of the world, increases their M2 by about 30%….
And you compare that to dirt poor war torn Iraq with a 30 billion GDP, and no demand for their currency, along with increasing their M2 by 162,500%… and think they are anywhere near the same….
And you call me ignorant????? Thanks for the laugh..
Merry Christmas to all.
Get your lottery tickets, at least you have a chance.
Your screen name is perfect for this board… it should be seen as literal advice.
The answer to that post is LOP.
The FACTS are that back around 1980 Iraq had about 20 BILLION in M2.
The latest M2 numbers show that Iraq now has 32.5 TRILLION.
Yes... Iraq has 1625 times more currency to support now than they did back in 80.
That is the reason the dinar will never be worth much more than it is now. It's growth is limited by it's MASSIVE supply.
A 3 zero lop, like they have said about 20 times they will do, will reduce the M2 back to 32 billion and they can then have a 1:1 exchange rate.
Buy lottery tickets!!! At least there you have a 1 in 40 million chance. The dinar has NO chance.
Or they will announce a new currency and a lop and all this crap will be proven to be just that... crap.
the reverse split scenario is what you will probably see.
But at least with a reverse split, your broker takes care of the transaction. With dinar in a shoebox under the bed... might be a bit more complicated.
Rememeber... almost all penny stocks are total crap.
You have your facts a bit off. The dinar hasn’t been worth $3 since the early eighties. It was almost 30 years ago. The only thing that was $3 was the official rate mandated by Saddam. The whole world laughed at that rate. If Iraq restores a rate anywhere near that again with the current money supply… then the whole world will laugh at them again.
The true value of the dinar, as posted by the Central Bank of Iraq… the street rate, what it was really worth.
Year.........M2............Exchange Rate ID/US$
91.............24.6B.......10
92.............43.9B.......21
93.............86.4B.......74
94.............238.9B......458
95........….705.1B......1674 Iraq starts printing 250 dinar notes (1)
96........….960.5B......1170
97........….1.03T........1471
98.........…1.35T........1620
99.............1.48T........1972
00.............1.72T........1930
01.............2.15T........1929
02.............3.01T........1957 Iraq starts printing 10,000 dinar notes (2)
03.............3.78T........1459 (3)
As you can see, it was already 1600:1 in 1995… about 14 years ago.
lol... that's more than a 30,000 percent increase you are expecting. You say "things like this don't happen ovenight". Can you come up with one example of anything near that EVER happening to a currency.
You are exactly right Strong. Iraq just like all the other oil producing countries will never have their currencies on the FX. They may be entertaining the thought of once they all join the GCC, then that currency could truly float and be traded on the FX, but I seriously doubt that will happen. As you state, countries strive for STABILITY in currencies. Countries that rely almost solely on Oil for their revenues would have no chance of price stability… just look at oil prices over the last year. That’s what their currencies would have done and it would be a nightmare for them.
As I stated years ago. The dinar is fairly priced where it is. It may go up to 1000:1, but that’s about the best it will do. If they couldn’t substantially move it with $145 for a barrel… how can they possibly do it with $30 a barrel.
The money maker with the dinar will be to set up a way to get dinar back into Iraq for exchange when they introduce a new currency. Big money available there.
Step on a dealers toe!!
They are going to print a new currency and exchange... just a matter of when.
The dinar dealers are all slappin’ high fives tonight. With Chase out of the way, and I predicted a long time ago Chase wouldn’t buy back dinar once there was a lop, when the lop is officially announced the dealers will be the only hope left for getting rid of dinar. Thier premium will be sky high if it’s a short exchange window.
Imagine that… The CBI governor telling people to use the countries currency. Shocking!!!
What did you expect to him to say to that???? Yeah… we’re gonna mint some special coins because the dinar is headed down the crapper… lol
Scary… to you that is more important than Shabibi saying they are seriously considering a lop.
Chase bank is bailing out of the dinar... the CBI Gov is talking lop… yet you’re still dreaming... determined to go down with the ship.
Shabibi, CBI Governor dicsusses Lop.
http://www.zibb.com/article/4468689/Iraqi+central+bank+governor+interviewed+on+monetary+situation
Asked whether the removal of three digits from the Iraqi currency is a step aimed at curbing inflation, Al-Shibibi says this issue has nothing to do with inflation, but the concerned parties are taking this issue into great consideration and giving it precedence over other issues, such as the implementation of certain monetary policies and reserve investments. He adds: "We monitor the value of the Iraqi dinar vis-A -vis the US dollar, which is relatively stronger than the dinar," noting that the digits issue is currently under serious review. Asked whether there is a timeframe for making a decision on this issue, he denies that there is, explaining that this depends on the circumstances and the exchange rate policies.
Rahim notes that the Central Bank has fixed the exchange rate for the US dollar and that it is the only party that controls any increase or decrease in this rate, and he asks Al-Shibibi to confirm this. Al-Shibibi confirms that this is true, "because managing the exchange rate mainly helps in curbing inflation. The system by which we determine the exchange rate is called 'managed float system,' which means that the price of the dinar is kept floating but is closely monitored so that it can be managed whenever a tangible change occurs." He adds that this floating system is linked to the supply and demand for the US dollar, explaining that the Central Bank is obliged to guarantee 100 per cent of the demands by Iraqi banks for the US dollar; otherwise, they might buy it from other local sources at a cheaper price, resulting in the presence of more than one price, which is against the bank's current policy. Asked whether the Central Bank has sufficient amounts of foreign currency to meet the market's demand, Al-Shibibi says that the bank is obliged to meet the demand in full, adding: "We believe that our reserves are sufficient to meet such demand." He explains that any request for foreign currencies that takes place in the currency auction is reviewed carefully before it is approved, requiring the Central Bank to always make foreign currencies available. He notes that the Central Bank receives requests for foreign currency in amounts ranging from 150 to 200 millions daily, [currency not specified], which means that it should be able to meet this demand. He explains that exchange rate fluctuation is more dangerous than any drop in the exchange rate.
I suggest you look up the term Ill-Fated… and while your at it read the actual presidential order and not the PRWEB. Look up PRWEB also. Anyone could have put that out, I’m sure it was a dinar dealer.
Order 13303
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/05/20030522-15.html
Executive Order Protecting the Development Fund for Iraq and Certain Other Property in Which Iraq Has An Interest
Nothing about buying dinar…. NOTHING
SOFA
http://www.iraqoilreport.com/SOFA.doc
2. The United States Forces may not export Iraqi currency from Iraq, and shall take measures to ensure that members of the United States Forces, of the civilian component, and United States contractors and United States contractor employees do not export Iraqi currency from Iraq.
Stumbling blocks to what? Can you show one single thing from an Iraqi official, or any economist, or just a journalist... saying that Iraq will greatly revalue their currency... just one link.
On the other hand, there are probably about 50 or 60 articles out now where Iraqi officials, economist, and journalist talk about the lop... that's what people need to keep an eye on.
Are you living in a time warp????
The article about raising the interest rates to 16% is two years old. Iraq increased the rates all the way up to 21%... interestingly, the rates are now back down to 16%.
http://www.cbi.iq/xl&wr/key%20financial.xls'
Look at line number 8.
LOL... and oil prices skyrocketing?????????
Are you serious????
"Economists have agreed that the long-term project of deleting zeros from the currency which the Central Bank is planning to implement needs ‘unavailable’ economic stability."
It is amazing to me how some people interpret articles.
This clearly says that the CBI is planning on implementing the lop. All this article states… is that a couple/few economist don’t think it’s a good idea right now. They don’t think the economy is stable enough yet. Now… maybe the Minister of Finance and the CBI will change their minds, and they will hold off on the lop… but this certainly doesn’t say that. It’s just a few economist disagreeing with the decision to lop.
On top of that… if the economy is too unstable to simply lop… do think they could do a large RV???
There is no RV... there is a lop article coming out on a daily basis. Two months ago I would have said the lop was about a 95% sure thing. With the world wide economic slow down coupled with plummeting oil prices... that may influence Iraq to hold off on the lop. I would say the lop is down to about a 75% chance now. But if they don't do it, it is just a delay and will be done one day. If they don't lop they will just continue on like they are. A pip here and a pip there. A big RV is simply a fantasy.
Yes... just like any policy, there will always be critics.
There have been about a dozen lop articles recently from CBI advisors, the MOF, and even from the CBI Gov (it got pulled after two days). These are the descision makers. The critics are just that, critics.
Whos side do you want to be on... the policy makers... or a few critics.
It doesn't get much clearer... lop.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://en.aswataliraq.info/%3Fp%3D101904
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) described the removal of three inflation-generated zeros from Iraqi banknotes as a long-term strategy to improve its currency policy.
“Dropping zeros from currency is a normal procedure by most central banks in countries that have gone through long periods of high inflation…,” according to a statement released by the national media center, quoting a CBI source as saying.
Wayne, look back at my post. I have posted them all before.
Thanks Wayne.
Again, over two year old article. Who knows who the author was.
I know the sources of recent calls for a lop. They are the Minister Finance for Iraq, Not one, but two senior Central Bank Advisors, and the Governor of the Central Bank. They are the ones in control of the situation. The author of the article as far as we know has no input on the situation… but even he wrote in 2006 that it could be done in the not so distant future.
“Finally, we have a long way to go on the way of the economic reform and reconstruction in order to improve the price of the Iraqi Dinar and its raise its value or as some would like to call it ( when the Iraqi Dinar gets its health back ). This is not impossible and tomorrow is not too far.(Source)AlSabah"
You are aware that the Paris Club debt reduction is over with in 2008 and the Stand By Arrangement with the IMF ends in March of 09?
I think the lop will coincide with expiration of the Stand By Arrangement.
It is amazing the emotional attachment so of you have with this investment.
LOL… So I post lop articles that are two weeks old, and I get bashed for bringing up old stuff. Now you’re pushing this from 2006?
Plus, there is nothing in here that means no lop. The MOF wants to lop, two senior advisors from the CBI say they will lop. There was an article on two legitimate Middle Eastern news sites that stated that the CBI Governor had decided to lop. These were all in the last 3 or 4 weeks. How does an opinion piece from someone with no influence on the situation, that was written in 2006… how is that relevant to today. Plus… there is nothing in the article that says they won’t lop. It simply states that they are not ready…. But the last line says… “This is not impossible and tomorrow is not too far. “ Well, over two years later could certainly be considered tomorrow is not far.
Also… his main point is the lop will not do much. Well, big surprise. As I have said for years, a lop is not meant to do anything but remove the zeros from the currency. Makes transactions easier. None of the lop articles claim any massive benefits.
There has been way to many articles that state Iraq will do the same as Turkey, Russia, Afghanistan and others that lopped.
They have stated that 1000 dinars will be converted to 1.
They have said that 20 trillion dinars will be turned into 15 billion dinars.
Those don’t fit your scenario.
They won’t replace it all at once. They will announce a lop, and they will issue a new currency, probably a 1, 5, 10, 25 and maybe a few different fils. The new currency and the old will both be valid during the exchange period. The old will have the same exchange rate as now .0008, the new will have a rate of .8.
Buy the end of the exchange period they will expect everyone to have converted to the new currency and the old will no longer be legal tender after the exchange is over.
Same to you. Luck for me would be they pass the bailout bill in the AM. I went in big in the SSO and QLD at the close today. Hoping for a big rally on the passage of that bill.
That is the same exact thing they have been saying for two or three years now. They will strengthen the rate to absorb inflation. It has been their policy for years and that policy has yielded one pip moves for that amount of time.
There are dozens of articles over the last couple years saying this. It's in the IMF standy arrangment letters... they are called Letters of Imtent. Look them up. They will all say exactly what this statement does.
I will find some later if you'd like, but I'm trading right now.
Crap... did I miss an attack??? LOL...
Yes, we have a lop, and we have small 1 pip movements that could be called an RV. Is that what you mean by RV?
If you mean anything bigger than that, can you tell me how "we have that"?
My whole premise is that a RV of any large size is out of the question. They can and probably will continue to move the rate 1 dinar at time right up to when/if they lop. After they lop, they can continue to increase the rate, but then it will be at .001 at a time.
The dinar has been out now for 5 years. In all that time there has not been one single economist, or anyone other than dinar dealers and pumpers, that has talked about any kind of large RV. No articles, not one where someone discusses a big RV. It doesn’t exist and people don’t even discuss it because it is a fantasy.
What is the question then, as you see it?
Central Banks Governor, That would be Shabs
MENAFN - (Qatar News Agency) Central Banks Governor announced today it has accepted a decision to raise zeros from the Iraq dinar and increase the value of the Iraqi dinar. claiming "We must bring prosperity to the citizens of Iraq as she has suffered a great loss faced the rest of the economic world". we now have control of a strong task of reigning in high inflation while increasing the value of the past 18 months as much as 20%.
We are at the early stages for the world to see us as a strong soverign nation able to stand with our neighbors. to show the world tyranny dictatorship is behind her, Iraq will begin a currency exchange program as suggested by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund which was studied for great time and has accepted her decision. Iraq has put the days of inflation to end and will make her nation stand atop of the arab world we show our people that past policy regimes no longer exist in Iraq and to build a powerful nation .
http://www.baghdadtimes.net/Arabic/index.php?sid=34095
I did answer the question. The increases in purchasing power he is refering to are the 1 pip moves the CBI has been doing for years. He is just saying they will continue that policy. As I said before, that has nothing to do with a lop. They now move 1 dinar at a time, after a lop they will just move .001 dinar at a time.
Check this out Strong, might make you feel better about your descision.
"Modhir said that Iraq will convert from 20 trillion to 15 billion dinars and this would have positive effects on the daily economy and banking"
See that... from 20 trillion to 15 billion. That's strange. A straight 3 zero lop would reduce it from 20T to 20B. What will happen to that other 5 trillion dinar. I see one of two things. Either it wont be a true 1000:1 swap, maybe they will do it as 1200 or 1300 to 1 swap. Or if they do 1000:1, they seem to be expecting to lose 5 trillion somewhere. Where do you think the 5 trillion that might not get exchanged is?
You seem to be a bit emotional about this investment. That breaks the #1 golden rule of investing.
Where has Shabs been the last 2 months. Two of his top advisors have been out doing interviews saying that a lop will happen. One of the advisors has done follow up interviews confirming their commitment to lop. These articles are all over the middle east news. If it's not true, why has Shabs not come out and denied it. Last year when the rumor went out that they were going to quickly go to 1000:1 and then lop, Shabs was all over it denying it. Where is he now?
One of the articls recently... there's so many... but one of them the CBI advisor stated that just by lopping, they could reduce inflation by 3%
LOLOL... that's a good one Strong