Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
GOLD is F'd until the August option period. As usual, whatever position I have a long spread on instantly goes out of the money with 2 weeks to go. GLD is no exception. In the money for a month on the 121/122 July call spread. Then, just as the thing starts trading with more intrinsic value, it plummets $4 overnight giving me no chance to take a profit.
I know it sounds paranoid. But same thing happened last month on SDS. Market rallied for the last two weeks and I couldn't collect on any of my laddered calls. Expired worthless and The open on the following Monday was the market high since. Naturally, without time to re-establish SDS calls in July, I missed the entire recent slide. Went from $31 to $39 today in a week and a half.
I swear, I don't know how I can be so radically screwed on my positions, but it happens every time. So, I would say it's a safe bet that GLD will stay well below $121, until Thursday and Friday of opex week, when it will slowly inch higher. Just enough to keep me from selling, but never high enough to get me in the money. The Monday after they expire, GLD will be up huge.
I wish I was imagining this. Sadly, it is my reality. Hopefully someone else can profit at least.
MF4
excellent summary
alert,
I've taken my last hit from that crack pipe. But I do hope you're right. Still holding about 18,000 shares that were once worth $50K.
I also could have sold some vacant land 5 years ago for $250K, but didn't. I could probably get $15K for all of it now what was once worth $300K. Regrets? nah. Smoked everything I could out of that pipe too. moving on.
MF4
I'm already up 10% on the TZA purchase made from liquidating CORX at a loss.
Financing + dilution + more months ticking by hoping for SA. Wish I never heard of CORX.
MF4
I saw an article in some mag about Bremelanotides and thought this is a goldmine. Of course I immediately checked the stock price and it was .42 and going higher. Naturally, I had to have a piece of it. Fast forward a year. Of couse I bought near the top.
I own another POS biotech with lots of promise. 15 years later, CORX has been a bitter disappointment. Selling near it's all-time lows, CORX management can only raise cash by dilution too.
When I saw that happening in PTN, I swallowed my pride and dumped 2/3 of it today at half price. Boy, do I feel like a genious. Congrats crooks, you got another sucker.
MF4
I already made $130 selling calls against my TZA. Holding CORX = $0
MF4
I've had enough of this POS. hanging its hopes on Sleep Apnea. i said it before and should have listened to myself. SA is a nebulous condition. NO way ampakines show solid effacasy.
I bought some shares on the last financing on the hopes that management would make some progress. What was i thinking?
I just sold all 9,000 shares for .17, turned around and bought 200 shares of TZA for $7.08
Let's see which one is worth more in 2 weeks.
MF4
GFP,
I agree with you brother. The problem is that those terrorists own the news sources. If they single you out, they can paint you as a David Koresh, and get the public on their side against you. This country is becoming everything they said Russia was when I was growing up. Hard to ignore it anymore. Just be careful man.
A lot of people still don't seem to get it yet.
MF4
Lieberman, Kerry and McCain: All were recent presidential candidates. All beholden to the unseen hand of Oz. All introducing Draconian legislation any Constitution loving American would take offense to.
Connect the dots people. Do you seriously think the two parties have a shred of independence or legitimacy? obviously, they are two sides of the same coin. Anybody who makes it to legitimate candidate owes favors.
The unseen hands are why obama keeps introducing multi-thousand page laws that will dismantle the Constitution. Don't bother writing your congressman or votong for "change". Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. I'm sure anybody who gets elected and tries to stand up for what's right is coerced and threatened to play ball.
I wonder what the founding fathers would do to the tyrannical punks in congress participating in the dismantling of our once-great country? I wish we had some men of substance in power that would stand up to the thugs behind the scenes.
MF4
Be careful GFP. Words like that might get you labelled a terrorist. Remember the Salem Witch Trials?
MF4
I also heard something about a one-time dividend for BVF shareholders of $1. Not bad since a week ago it was trading in the mid $14s. Today mid 18s.
MF4
Looks like BVF is on the move.
MF4
I have been readying to buy some more BVF in the $14's. I see it popped nicely today. What do you think of BVF?
MF4
Ombow,
Are you sure Ahmadinejad is a wacko? What do you really know about the middle east other than what the news tells you?
MF4
GFP,
I heard a very interesting take of the New World Order on Coast To Coast http://www.coasttocoastam.com/show/2010/04/12, from April 12th. According to Jay Weidner, The sun goes into a massive coronal mass ejection every 120K years or so and wipes out all life on the surface of the Earth. Supposedly, humans have been around for many millions of years.
Supposedly, in one of these cycles, a civilisation came to prominence and developed anti-gravity craft, and some left the planet. Supposedly Mars is much more hospitable then we have been led to believe and some of our ancestors survived a coronal mass ejection by living underground on Mars. They returned after the CME receded, and discovered some humans had survived on the earth. While living on Mars, over time, they lost much of their pigmentation and grew tall and thin. These are the supposedly the "nordic" aliens that are talked about. They are also known as the Vril.
Suposedly, they have been using the human race and this planet to build ships (arks) to leave Earth again before the next CME (due in 2012). They have amazing technology and underground bases and have been using the new world order to keep hidden and employ humans to build their crafts.
They have been the secret "rulers of the world" and are leaving their devices and bases to the NWO when the depart. Supposedly, there are writings lost in Persia that reveal this story. Ever wonder why both the Bushes (supposedly NWO) have been obsessed with Iraq? Invading it under false pretenses. Why did GB2 go back there? Because they didn't find what the were looking for the first time?
Anyway, I found the entire program very interesting. Not sure how much I believe, but it sort of explains some of the reasons why America has been doing some seemingly unexplainable actions in the world for the last 2 or 3 decades.
MF4
Hope is a great investment strategy! Good luck with that.
MF4
GFP,
When I studied Broadcasting back in the 80's, there were strict laws forbidding any one entity/conglomerate from owning more than 7 outlets of news (propaganda). An outlet could be a TV station, radio station, newspaper. This is because they wanted to keep the public airwaves public and unbiased.
At some point since then, somebody suceeded in removing that 7 outlet restriction. because now, most outlets are part of a conglomerate. Smaller conglomerates have been getting swallowed up by bigger conglomerates, over the years. Now, everybody uses CNN for video. There is little to no independent journalism or news sources anymore.
So, it's easy to see how the big money interests (globalists) have an almost perfect control grid in place. You and I could protest all we want in Podunk, but with no news there to cover it, who would ever hear about it? If they tell us the economy is getting better, who can agrue?
I think I took that class in 1984,
MF4
Don't they make ramen noodles too?
MF4
GFP,
The "end of summer" deadline was for LAST year.
OOOPs, my bad. It was extended a year. Are they enrolling .5 patients/month? A smashing sucess!
MF4
Bigworld,
VXX was so high for the last 3 weeks, I couldn't cover my SDS shorts. Now that the market is rallying, I can cover, but won't bother because my SDS longs have just slipped out of the money and I expect a rally until June expiration.
Do you have any expectation that the current euphoria will evaporate by Monday? I sure need a new low soon. 2 weeks from now is too late.
MF4
Bigworld,
I appreciate your patience in laying out your case. You make great points. I was Ombow years ago. I have since gone to the dark side. The selloffs are quick and powerful. I like being on that side in this market.
MF4
Everybody that I've heard of is targeting that range. You know what happens when everyone thinks the same way.
MF4
Food4,
My info is gleaned from years of losing money by buying options and having them expire. Now I use TA and when I anticipate a good entry, I get in with option spreads now. Now I make money.
With a spread, you basically buy one strike and sell another. There are many ways to do this. You can use puts, calls, credit or debit spreads. Keeping it simple, just use debit call spreads to get started. You would put this position on if you anticipate a nice bounce in the stock. Set your profit target before you get in and stick to it.
Front month options expire on the third friday of every month. Current series started today, are the June 2010 options that expire on June 18.
How does this work? Take INTC trading at 20.67 You can buy 100 shares for $2,067. Or you can buy a june 20 strike call for $130. The price quoted is 1.30 (1 contract = 100 shares). Or put on a debit call spread.
A verticle debit call spread means you buy the lower strike (20) and simultaneously sell the next higher strike (21). The reason I like this is because the money you get from selling the 21 helps pay for the 20 you are long. The net cost on this is $61. That is the most it can cost you. The max you can make is $100. Your max profit would be $39.
If you like the scenario, do 5, 10 or 20 contracts. If the stock goes up 50 cents, you can sell the spread for more than you bought it for, say 75 cents.
There is more to it, of course, but thats the basic concept of using spreads. INTC is a low beta stock, so the reward on spreads isn't that big. But, use something like SDS, a double short of the SPY. You can buy june 35 calls and sell june 45 calls for less than $2. and potentially make $8 profit, or 400%. You know it only costs you $200 per contract. If you wanted to buy 100 shares outright, it costs $3,500. So you can see how much leverage using spreads gives you. The risk is, if your anticipated move doesn't happen by expiration, you lose all that you put up.
You can sell them at any time, although the bid/ask is usually a few cents wider than stocks.
If you get CNBC, set your DVR to record "Options Action" on Fridays after fast money. It will teach you about options strategy.
MF4
Food4 and Bigworld,
I know I wasn't asked, but IMHO, SPY rallies over the course if this week (and maybe next) to 114-115 with a brief move towards 117, where it fails to hold.
Maybe a flattish day at 114-115, then a selloff to 109-110, followed by a breach of 105 and maybe a one-two day test of 950. This within the June option period that starts Monday.
My track record for this has be atrocious before I started doing TA a month ago. But, I nailed the day of the top April 19th.
MF4
Food 4,
Expect some support around SPY 105. Maybe up to 110 before selling off more. JMHO. I'm not a great technician yet.
Also buy some put spreads around the upper levels. Ex: June or July SPY puts 106/105 when SPY hits 110. You can make 400-500% if you're right. If you're wrong, you can lose 100%. But no more than that.
MF4
Ombow,
There is but one solution: Libertarian government about 10% of it's current size.
When was the last time somebody said "I can see that my job isn't needed. Since I make the rules, I will cut my job because thats what is in the best interest of my country"? Probably never. Therefore, how can we expect that government will voluntarily shrink itself. the best it will do is kick the can further down the road. piling up more debt. Again, that's probably the plan because whoever is funding that debt (the IMF - A global version of the independent FED), will eventually need to be paid.
Since we will have no way to payoff the trillions your saviors Obummah and Bush have foisted upon us, we will have to give up valuable things like land/resources, our independence before they call it square. Pledged military support for whatever imperialistic takeover they can concoct.
Ask yourself "how did we get into this mess"? Now tell me you still believe everything is rosy and Obama cares about you.
only when enough of us have lost everything and we demand that government be shrunk will anything happen. But, I believe the puppet masters will defend their castles by any means necessary. it sucks, but people with their heads in the sand are why we're here.
MF4
"I think the fear, panic, and bad news has been largely factored in to stock prices.
Ombow,
Now is your chance to put your money where your mouth is. You have a 10+% correction as of Thursday's close. Stocks are on sale. If you really believe what you have been writing, you've got a great entry point. But, don't do it just to spite me. If you do, it's YOUR call.
Bigworld,
Kudos. Your sage commentary has kept me from buying into the rally hype and saved my bacon. thank you.
MF4
Ombow,
When the IMF can throw one million, million dollars at a problem, when our deficit is now 13 trillion dollars, how can we really come through this? Only way is to devalue the dollar and create some IMF currency. 300 Million people in the USA. That's $43.3K per person. What's another $3K? I guess you're right. I thought it was worse. nevermind.
MF4
Ombow,
You may be right? One thing I'm sure of is that ACH (anything can happen). That's why I'm trying to shed all of my diverse positions and just swing trade short-term trends/ developments.
Hedging the whole way.
Will the market rally this summer? Maybe if you buy the agrument that fundamentals are improving, PEs may seem cheap?
But, I tend to be an exteme thinker, and the extremist in me sees a worldwide system that is destined for major upheaval. I mean if the dollar is the flight to currency safety trade, you know the boat is sinking. With every G7 nation purposely being steered towards default and bankruptcy, something has to give.
One has to ask, why is all of this happening? Who is engineering it? Why? My guess is the IMF is being positioned to control the world. Who controls the IMF? Who runs the IMF? Where is Oz?
Maybe you think the world will be fine being taxed at 80-90%, but I don't.
MF4
Bigworld,
I agree with almost everything you said. Only difference: We can only choose who to elect from the clowns the globalists put up for us to choose from. Since both sides are part of the same crooked coin, choice is an illusion.
I'm sure if somebody was pure and managed to get in, their family, lives, or reputations would be threatened if they don't play ball. So, in the end, we get what we have.
Until somebody is willing to shed light on the crooks, and We, the people, are willing to hang the treasonous offenders (which we're not), I don't see any improvement.
perhaps when the house of cards comes crashing down and there's no system left to support the crooks, we will get a glimpse behind the curtain?
MF4
Ombow,
We both don't "know" what will happen. I understand that you are sharing your opinion, as am I.
But the reason I am so skeptical, is that I truly do believe the only explanation for the way that Congress and the Prez work and the illogical, stupid things they do, can only be explained by conspiracy theory, and political motivation.
MF4
Ombow,
The multinationals have picked up well from the standstill created during the "credit crisis", but local, small US based businesses have shown no such improvement.
At some point, the reality of no new jobs, massive tax and regulatory burdons, and a president with a socialist agenda, and idiots in congress, will be a load that crushes the american consumer.
The government will then provide housing and mandatory jobs and basically become what we were taught was the soviet union in the 70s.
MF4
Bigworld,
GLD is a long here. It's the safe play when all governments are using the printing press. $1T will do that.
MF4
Bigworld,
Wow. Have you seen the futures? Up 400 Monday morning? PPT in hyper-drive. Looking like the "Greek crisis" was just another PPT-engineered bear trap.
Result: Justification for new laws to prevent "this financial meltdown" (soon to come). And now the IMF are the saviors. We need them. Give them the keys to the world.
Such BS. How do you trade this intelligently? Bet on the logical downside? Or hold your nose, and know that the puppet masters will move it higher regardless of cost?
MF4
Ombow,
You should consider that if tax rates keep going up, people will reach a point where they will stop spending and give up. And since the government will never cut jobs and expenses and contiunue to waste money trying to buy votes, how will that affect your rosy scenarios?
MF4
Food for,
I don't know if you do options much, but put-spreads are the way to go. Buy one strike, sell the next lower strike to help finance it. It limits your upside, but also your time decay.
If you're right on the move, 100-200% profit is doable.
MF4
Bigworld,
Last night while reflecting on the day, a thought occurred to me: As a result of the Greek crisis, the Euro has dropped from 1.50 to 1.25
The U.S. Dollar is close to parity with AUS and CAD. It has improved from .72 to .84 on the "index"
All of these movements have "naturally" (as if they weren't engineered) brought major currencies to a level where it wouldn't take much to say a number of G7 currencies are all equal.
Connecting the dots, I believe the time for a global currency, overseen by the international version of the Fed (IMF), is being quickly engineered. New good crisis should go to waste, or so they say.
Therefore, any drop in gold should be seen as a buying opportunity. Assuming the new SDRs will have some sort of tie to gold. or maybe it will be oil?
MF4
GFP,
Governments solution to any crisis: Create another government agency to oversee something.
Globalists hidden agenda: Subvert new agency to their purposes.
Fed audit, if it is allowed to stand, will not have any teeth, OR if it does have teeth, it will be because the FED will quickly be replaced by the IMF, which will have total authority over our financial soveriegnty.
I continue to believe that all of these crises are engineered to bring about change that Constitutionalists would never stand for in any other context.
MF4