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Go'Bama! I, for one, vote the lesser of two evils.:
It’s the stock market, stupid? Why Obama is no longer the underdog
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/why-obama-underdog-october-favorite-once-more-190454967.html
By David Pennock
Computer Scientist, Yahoo! Research
Pretty much since the day he was elected president of the United States in November 2008, Barack Obama has been the favorite on prediction markets like Intrade and Betfair to win re-election for a second term, as most incumbents do. That changed in September and October, when the budget stalemate and grim economic news turned Obama, for the first time, into an underdog.
But after bottoming out on October 8, when the prediction markets gave him a 48 percent chance of winning re-election, Obama has slowly and steadily climbed back to his August levels. His current odds, computed as an average of Intrade and Betfair, give him a 51.4 percent chance to win.
Obama's poll results and approval ratings are ticking up now, too. While it's tempting to credit scandals (exhibit C and G) or infighting among Obama's potential Republican rivals, or Republican stubbornness in the ongoing deficit reduction debate, the simplest explanation harkens back to the signature phrase of Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign, "It's the economy, stupid."
Brighter economic news and the prospect of a decent holiday season have handicappers wagering that economic conditions, or at least momentum, will be sufficient next fall that many voters will consider themselves better off in 2012 than 2008, and pull the lever for Obama.
The stock market is itself a massive prediction market forecasting the future profits of American businesses. As such, the Standard and Poor's 500 index offers about as good a guide as any to the economic outlook ahead. In the last 90 days, the S&P 500 has tracked a remarkably similar course as Obama: declining in September, bottoming out on October 3, rising steadily through October until November before beginning a slight decline again on November 14.
Obama's chances of reelection and the S&P 500 index price
In the figure, I've graphed Obama's likelihood to win on the prediction markets and the S&P 500 index price on the same chart. Although there can be a danger of reading too much into suggestive graphs (I don't advocate chartism), it's hard to imagine the correspondence is purely coincidental.
David Pennock has a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Michigan and currently heads the algorithmic economics group at Yahoo! Research.
Sounds a little discriminatory. Maybe this particular inspector(s) operates by the book, while others take kickbacks or don't care enough to stir the waters, interculturally or domestically (not an unreasonable assumption, btw). I would be more concerned about MYL, the firm, and less focused on the region (although I'm sure you have some acecdotal evidence to back up your statement in regards to PR (Puerto Rico). It could be one bad apple, but that could still bring down/knock down a company. Be careful downplaying these situations too much, they could be endangering the lives of many, many people with their products:
http://www.fda.gov/ICECI/EnforcementActions/WarningLetters/ucm280069.htm
There is more to nature than numbers. No tree is completely immune to the elements. 'Life' doesn't automatically translate into 'quality,' either. I applaud Western medicine for providing life and relief (through medicine) to poor and sickened people worldwide, no matter what their motivations are/were: They (pharmaceuticals) certainly played a role in improving infant mortality and increasing life expectancy. However, I think they (mostly BP, or wannaBP) are doing more damage than good in the recent past and present, and it is probably only a matter of time before people see that more clearly. It's unfortunate, but their own tactics are muting much of the benefits they provide a society (via megamergers, lobbying efforts, lavish physician gifts, etc.). Furthermore, I don't think the industry is doing society a favor by quietly providing addictive medications to the masses.
The bigger they are the harder they fall. On the plus side, it allows more space and sunlight for the young trees to flourish and rebuild the forest.
I'm impressed by the knowledge and highly technical discussions here, but on this topic, I think you're more than a little short-sighted. With that said, you provide a great service and do justice to your readers and followers--that's why I won't clog up this board too much with unconventional and non-technical perspectives.
I presume it is just a profound concern for the general welfare of society, and an overwhelming distrust for those who are heavily motivated by personal financial gain and ego fulfillment. The proliferation of painkillers and psychiatric drugs provide a glaring example of corporate malfeasance and grave ethical compromise. Corporations are people. It is no longer an anecdotal story. It is legalized drug pushing as much as the stock market is legalized gambling. There are many people enriching themselves off of the weakness, ignorance, compassion and naïveté of others.
Why on this board? I guess because there are many intelligent, savvy, and active pharmaceutical investors on this forum, and this is a perspective that is rarely presented here. Some may say that is because it doesn't matter for their purpose of investing. I think, from an investor standpoint (long term or otherwise), that the dark side of the industry is looming, expanding, and an underrated risk. I think the BP Industry is a 600 lb gorilla, while the 800 lb gorilla is lurking in the shadows.
I also think there is a false sense of security that companies spreading Western Medicine will continue to, and consistently, grow globally (a backfire of the Demographic Tailwinds perhaps). The rest of the world (and rightfully so) should have serious reservations about embracing [this facet] of our way of life. Money goes far, but not all the way. The more aware people become, and they are doing so thanks to modern technology, the more it threatens these powerful enterprises and their tactics. Ironic, isn't it?
You might think I'm 'out there,' fair enough, but you asked :)
But really, shouldn't more of the profits go to the people who do the actual grunt work?
If these bozos running the show could ever get something worthwhile put together, the market would ignore my negativity and buy it. Blame the management for the poor performance, not me.
My father will be relieving himself of his shares by year's end, to offset his gains. However, his commission will cost more than the equity returned to him. I could say, 'that's just biotech,' but I would lying if I did: Most of the disappointment and failure here was a result of poor management. Smart drugs, dumb leadership.
The kool-aid factory shut down years ago, but the co continues to bleed money by overcompensating security guards, charged with guarding the sweet powder.
OxyContin: Purdue Pharma's painful medicine
November 9, 2011: 5:00 AM ET
What the strange saga of Purdue and its $3 billion drug tells us about our national dependence on painkillers. [It's a long article, so I'll just provide the link]:
http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/09/oxycontin-purdue-pharma/?source=yahoo_quote
I wouldn't call davey a regular (at least not on I-Hub), and I certainly wouldn't trust anything the guy says. As far as entertainment goes, I'd love to see what he has to say.
Why would they (BMR) assume that a dilutive financing would provide a 'bump,' inasmuch as the Servier purchase (a few weeks ago) did not ?
We have some interest. eom
I'm here soley because I feel your the master of this game. Im in IBIO for about 3.40/share 60k shares and feel if I can get someone like you to look into it and like the potential it will go like wild fire.
Huntsman's Warning on 'Too Big to Fail'
SIMON JOHNSON, On Thursday October 20, 2011, 5:00 am EDT
Simon Johnson, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is the co-author of "13 Bankers."
The idea that big banks damage the broader economy has considerable resonance on the intellectual right. Thomas Hoenig, the recently retired president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has been our clearest official voice on this topic. And Eugene Fama, father of the efficient markets view of finance, said on CNBC last year that having banks that are "too big to fail" is "perverting activities and incentives" in financial markets - giving big financial firms "a license to increase risk; where the taxpayers will bear the downside and firms will bear the upside."
The mainstream political right, however, has been reluctant to take on the issue. This changed on Wednesday, with a very clear statement by Jon Huntsman in The Wall Street Journal on regulatory capture and its consequences. Before the 2008 financial crisis, he wrote, "the largest banks were pushing hard to take more risk at taxpayers' expense." And now, he added:
This message could work politically, for five reasons.
First, for anyone on the right of the political spectrum who thinks at all about the issues, this is a coherent and appealing position. Mr. Fama had it exactly right when he said, in the same interview that "too big to fail" "is not capitalism; capitalism says - you perform poorly, you fail."
"Too big to fail" is not a market-based concept; it's a government subsidy scheme - of the most inefficient and dangerous kind.
This is exactly Mr. Huntsman's theme: "Hedge funds and private equity funds go out of business all the time when they make big mistakes, to the notice of few, because they are not too big to fail. There is no reason why banks cannot live with the same reality."
Second, serious senior figures within the Republican Party have long been pointing in this direction. In 2009, for example, former Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady said, "First we should just come out and say it: the financial system that led us to the brink of disaster is broken." And former Secretary of State George P. Shultz has emphasized that we should "make failure tolerable," suggesting, for example, "an escalating schedule could be required of necessary capital ratios geared to size and matched with escalating limits on leverage."
Republicans like to discuss who is and is not a true Republican. How can any true Republican condone the subsidies that underpin our biggest financial companies today?
Third, mainstream financial thinking is in exactly the same place, in terms of asserting that capital requirements for big banks should be much higher. On this issue I refer you, as always, to the work of Anat Admati and her colleagues at Stanford University.
Mr. Huntsman's position is in alignment with the strongest possible technical thinking, but he has also found a direct and easy way to communicate the right political message. Higher capital requirements for big banks are a great idea; they should help prevent financial disaster. But when such disaster occurs, we need financial institutions that can actually fail - with losses to creditors - without bringing down the entire system. Anything "too big to fail" is simply too big.
Fourth, political Republicans who favor the status quo with regard to megabanks are going to have a hard time justifying that position - including in a confrontational debate format. (Mr. Huntsman declined to participate in this week's debate among the Republican candidates, but is likely to spread his "too big to fail" message as he campaigns at town hall meetings in New Hampshire.)
In particular, Mitt Romney is very vulnerable on this issue, as he has already lined up so much support from among the biggest banks. Presumably the prospect of Wall Street donations is enough to deter some Republicans (and many Democrats) from confronting the issue of "too big to fail." But if Mr. Romney is already far ahead is this fund-raising category, there is much less to lose. And his donations must make it harder for him to explain exactly how he would ensure that even one megabank could fail.
It's not enough just to wish that big banks could fail or to promise not to support them next time. This is not a credible commitment - and the "resolution authority" created under the Dodd-Frank regulatory legislation is a paper tiger with regard to winding down the biggest banks. If the choice is global economic calamity or unsavory bailout, which would you - let alone any Republican president - choose?
Mr. Huntsman has joined the dots. There are various ways to directly address and remove the implicit subsidies that the largest banks receive. Bloated size and excessive leverage can be effectively taxed. As he said:
Fifth, the euro zone is on the verge of calamity in large part because its members built very large banks with huge implicit subsidies, and this facilitated an irresponsible accumulation of public sector debt.
During the Dodd-Frank debate last year, we heard repeatedly from people - including senators on both sides of the aisle - who believed that reducing the size of our largest banks would somehow put the rest of our private sector at a disadvantage.
Who now would like to emulate in any way the disaster that the Europeans have brought upon themselves? Mr. Romney, please explain how you would prevent our largest banks from becoming ever larger and taking on more risk, and, as they did, continuing the reckless buildup of debt throughout the global economy.
The scenario for the last days, the rule of the beast, and the return of Jesus Christ will be played out on earth.
Sooner or later, the principal of the firm, Matt Garza, is probably going to end up being the target of a civil or criminal prosecution.
It was supposed to say, "an emerging crappy CPAP firm," not "emerging microcap firm."
Neurolixis can higher them
Oops! I mean 'hire' them.
Varney has the 'several decades' of experience that Neurolixis mentions on their website.
But their anger would be best aimed at our Political class....it is their spending and their corruption that is tat the heart of our national debt crisis....Demonizing the people who actually pay all the taxes and the evil corporations sounds good at the rallies but gets us nowhere
That is the reason I stopped posting years ago; but man, a person can only take so much bull.
Sleep Trims Synaptic Spines in Adolescents
http://www.alzforum.org/new/detail.asp?id=2932
14 October 2011. Here is one more reason teenagers need their zzz's—it appears sleep is prime time for synapse remodeling in adolescence. Researchers led by Giulio Tononi from the University of Wisconsin, Madison, have shown for the first time that in adolescent mice, sleep and waking states affect synaptic modeling. Mice showed a net loss of cortical spines after a full day's sleep, and a net spine gain after a full night of activity. Published online in the October 9 Nature Neuroscience, the result could have implications for the role of sleep in neurological disorders that have their roots in adolescence, such as schizophrenia. "The researchers show very nicely that spine growth and spine density are regulated by sleep in a global downscaling way...[and that] during the adolescent period, sleep contributes to homeostatic regulation," said Jan Born, University of Lübeck, Germany, who was not involved in the study.
Tononi's group has been developing the hypothesis that after a day of brain activity, sleep allows synapse strength to return to a sustainable baseline level where there is still the capacity for potentiation (see Tononi and Cirelli, 2006). In adult fruit flies, synapses become larger, gain AMPA receptors, and fire more strongly at the end of a waking period (see Bushey et al., 2011). "It doesn't take much for those synapses to get to a ceiling level of strength after which you can't potentiate any further," said coauthor Chiara Cirelli. "After this, the synapses are no longer conducive to learning, so there must be a mechanism for them to renormalize."
Knowing that adolescence is marked by a massive pruning of excitatory synapses, and that sleep/wake cycles influence this process in the adult brain, the researchers set out to determine whether sleep favors synaptic pruning in adolescence.
They used a two-photon microscope to observe individual neurons through a thinned portion of the skull in living mice. The researchers manually counted dendritic spines in 23- to 44-day-old mice expressing yellow fluorescent protein (YFP)-H. First author Stephanie Maret and colleagues took two images—one after the mice had been awake for more than eight hours during the night (mice are nocturnal), and then again after they had slept for six to eight hours the next day. In these animals, more spines were lost than gained during sleep, and the overall spine density fell. For a second group of mice, the researchers took images first after sleep, then after a full waking period, at which point there was a net boost in spine density. To make sure sleep—and not just passage of time—drove spine reductions, the researchers imaged a third group of sleep-deprived mice, which were kept awake for an additional six to seven hours after the normal wake period. This group had no net loss of spines, showing gains similar to mice at the end of a normal wake period. Overnight spine loss did not occur in mice that were allowed to sleep for only two to three hours, or in adult mice. The results suggest that a full sleep period is required for net spine loss and that it is unique to adolescents.
Whether sleep/wake cycles drive similar spine dynamics in humans is unclear. "In adults, we know there are serious cumulative consequences of sleep restriction for brain functioning," said Cirelli. "Based on our study, there may be anatomical or structural consequences as well." She said that it is difficult to relate the findings to spine loss and disturbed sleep/wake cycles seen in Alzheimer’s disease, or to aging, since the team neither looked at aging mice, nor saw the net sleep-associated spine change in adults. But Cirelli said that the effects of aging on spine remodeling are worth exploring.
In fact, sleep cycles have previously been shown to affect Aß production in models of Alzheimers disease. Aß levels rose during wakefulness and fell during sleep in a study of Tg2576 mice, and the longer those animals were kept awake, the higher the Aß levels (see ARF related news story on Kang et al., 2009). While in that study, amped-up neuron activity seemed to be associated with the rise in Aß production, previous research has also shown that when activity is especially high, Aß levels fall (see ARF related news story on Verges et al., 2011). Tononi intends to explore the spine remodeling process in other brain areas, in other animals, in aging mice, and test how it responds to chronic sleep deprivation.—Gwyneth Dickey Zakaib.
Your thoughts ring hollow with their 'feelings.' As usual, they are unwavering and...smooth? Such a sexy swagger this couple has...lol
Jesus, I've been possessed by crease...God help me (and save Corx from their own demons -- Stoll/Varney/BOD)!
Ps. It depends on the 'Ampakine cycle.' Like a clock, it will come around. We must first fix the clock though: how many years has it been broken now?
We are looking to buy a Chevy soon however
The indication this partnership targets should raise some eyebrows here (courtesy of DewDiligence on Biotech Values I-Hub board):
PFE, GlycoMimetics ink collaboration to develop GMI-1070 for vaso-occlusive crisis secondary to sickle cell disease:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GlycoMimetics-and-Pfizer-bw-3779555443.html?x=0&.v=1
GlycoMimetics and Pfizer Enter into Licensing Agreement for Drug Candidate Currently in Development to Treat Patients Experiencing Vaso-occlusive Crisis Associated with Sickle Cell Disease
Press Release Source: GlycoMimetics, Inc. On Tuesday October 11, 2011, 9:15 am EDT
GAITHERSBURG, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- GlycoMimetics, Inc. announced today that it has entered into an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement with Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE - News) for the GlycoMimetics investigational compound GMI-1070. GMI-1070 is a pan-selectin antagonist currently in Phase 2 development for the treatment of vaso-occlusive crisis associated with sickle cell disease. GMI-1070 has received Orphan Drug and Fast Track status from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Vaso-occlusive crisis, which can last five to six days on average, results in over 75,000 hospitalizations each year in the U.S. These crises cause pain and tissue damage leading to multiple organ damage, a requirement for life-long narcotic pain medications, and eventually to significantly shorter life spans. While the genetic and molecular cause of sickle cell disease has been known for more than 50 years, therapy for painful crises has not significantly advanced. GMI-1070 is thought to inhibit selectin interactions, a key early step in the inflammatory process leading to vaso-occlusive crisis. In preclinical studies, GMI-1070 restored blood flow to affected vessels of sickle cell animals experiencing vaso-occlusive crisis.
“We are very pleased to partner with Pfizer for the advancement of GlycoMimetics’ lead drug candidate, GMI-1070, which is initially being evaluated in patients with sickle cell disease experiencing vaso-occlusive crisis. This is a major unmet medical need,” said Rachel King, CEO of GlycoMimetics. “We value the resources and experience that Pfizer brings to the program, and recognize that the agreement is an important validation of GlycoMimetics’ unique chemistry expertise in discovery of proprietary drug candidates.”
Under the terms of the agreement, Pfizer will receive an exclusive worldwide license to GMI-1070 for vaso-occlusive crisis associated with sickle cell disease and for other diseases for which the drug candidate may be developed. GlycoMimetics will remain responsible for completion of the ongoing Phase 2 trial under Pfizer’s oversight, and Pfizer will then assume all further development and commercialization responsibilities. The potential value of the agreement for GlycoMimetics is approximately $340 million, including an upfront payment as well as development, regulatory and commercial milestones. GlycoMimetics is also eligible for royalties on any sales.
“Pfizer is committed to helping improve the lives of patients with rare diseases, and we see potential for GlycoMimetics’ GMI-1070 to be a significant advance in the treatment of vaso-occlusive crisis of sickle cell disease,” said Yvonne Greenstreet, senior vice president and head of the Medicines Development Group within Pfizer’s Specialty Care business unit. “This experimental compound and partnership are emblematic of our strategy in rare disease, targeting areas of high unmet need to deliver improved patient outcomes.”
“This partnership is an important milestone for GlycoMimetics as the company advances its clinical development program,” added Jim Barrett, Ph.D., Chairman of the Board of GlycoMimetics and General Partner, New Enterprise Associates. “It’s a testament to the progress made to date with GMI-1070, and will enhance continued development of this potential treatment for patients suffering from vaso-occlusive crisis.”
About GMI-1070
GMI-1070 is a rationally designed glycomimetic inhibitor of E-, P- and L-selectins that interferes in a key early step in the inflammatory process leading to leukocyte adhesion and recruitment to inflamed tissue. GMI-1070 has shown activity in several models of diseases in which leukocyte adhesion and activation play a key role.
GMI-1070 is initially being developed for the treatment of vaso-occlusive crisis associated with sickle cell disease. By inhibiting selectin interactions, GMI-1070 may be able to decrease the enhanced cell adhesion that results in vaso-occlusive crisis. In preclinical studies, GMI-1070 restored blood flow to affected vessels of sickle cell animals experiencing vaso-occlusive crisis. Two Phase 1 trials of GMI-1070 were successfully completed in the first quarter of 2009, with no serious adverse events reported. The program is currently in Phase 2 clinical testing. GMI-1070 is also being evaluated in preclinical studies for the treatment of other diseases, including hematologic malignancies, where selectin-mediated cell adhesion and migration is known to play a key role in the disease process.
Issued U.S. patents cover GMI-1070 with additional intellectual property issued and pending outside the U.S.
About Sickle Cell Disease and Vaso-Occlusive Crisis
Vaso-occlusive crisis is the main clinical feature of sickle cell disease, causing severe pain, often resulting in significant patient complications, and sometimes death. Currently, there are no mechanism-based therapies for treatment of vaso-occlusive crisis. Treatment consists primarily of supportive therapy in the form of hydration and pain control, typically requiring hospitalization for five to six days.
The potential value of the agreement for GlycoMimetics is approximately $340 million, including an upfront payment
At least we can't lose any more Jobs :)
Maybe China will be Corx's White night -- God help us!
His motivations on that piece are dubious at best. It doesn't hurt to get differing perspectives:
The Perils of Leverage
by Alan Abelson
Monday, October 10, 2011
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113641/perils-of-leverage-barrons;_ylt=Ao04xpR.b2SoNVPUVQCeA3a7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2dWc1bWdwBHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDb2NjdXB5d2FsbHN0?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
The Occupy Wall Street protestors have struck a chord among some unlikely suspects.
It figures. First we have the Great Recession. Then the Not-So-Great Recovery. That, in turn, gives way to the Great Stagnation. Which, as night follows day, is followed by what seems to have the makings of the Great Backlash in the form of the budding street protests against Wall Street.
All of which is bound to inspire the notion of a Great Conspiracy, whose unspoken aim is to quell the unrest by pumping up what the perps perceive as its root cause—the morbidly anemic stock market. A tortuous sequence, which nonetheless supposedly explains the welcome resurrection of share prices after the bloody pounding they absorbed during the third quarter.
Even the most delusional conspiracy fancier this side of a psychiatric ward might hesitate to suggest that fat cats, cunningly disguised as run-of-the-office working stiffs (and wearing polyester suits to further the misperception), gathered in the rear of some rancid beer joint on the lower West Side to collude. Fat cats are shrewder than that. And they also aren't overly fond of beer (makes their tummies bulge). Besides, they'd never have attained fat-cat status unless they knew instinctively what to do and when to do it.
We apologize for being slow on the uptake as to what, according to this strained scenario, made the market finally bounce last week, mostly because we erred grievously in assessing Occupy Wall Street. It appeared on hurried glance to be composed of such a ragtag bag of adrenaline-driven wastrels, we couldn't fathom how anyone could take them seriously. How wrong we were!
For however diffuse and even dubious their credentials, and for all their quixotic confusion in attacking a metaphor as if it were a living, breathing embodiment of malfeasance, they obviously have struck a nerve in the public at large, especially among that not-insignificant portion of the population that is suffering all the ills a costive economy can inflict. And, like disgruntled throngs everywhere these days, they have proved adept at enlisting that amorphous but powerful thing called "social media" in enhancing their numbers and propagating their cause.
Their plaints are various and fairly fuzzy, but seemingly boil down to this: The protestors are in a financial pickle and have been forced pretty much to fend for themselves, while banks and the rest of the financial sector, when mired in similar woes (mostly of their own making), had been bailed out by Uncle Sam.
Traders, analysts, brokers, portfolio managers, investment bankers and other ne'er-do-wells that we've encountered are more puzzled than dismayed by the mounting ruckus around Broad and Wall. Some even expressed sympathy, of a sort. Paul Brodsky, a principal in the hedge fund QB Asset Management, for example, whose sharp comments have spiced up this space from time to time, opined "that the kids downtown are credible" and "the vocal fringe" to which they belong actually represents a "disenfranchised majority that is quickly growing disenchanted" with our financial system and its workings.
Moreover, he argues, the protesters' beefs are not without merit. Money-printing, which the Federal Reserve has indulged in with gusto ever since the Great Recession, is what Paul calls "a terribly regressive tax on the working and middle classes."
Folks with higher incomes and access to credit, he points out, are able to maintain their customary standard of living and continue to shoulder their debts without much discomfort. But lower-wage earners and those with less access to credit, along with the 14 million or 15 million unfortunates who have lost their jobs, are really hurting.
Paul, we might add, is hardly your prototypical wild-eyed radical. A former bond trader, he's a free-marketeer, something of a closet gold bug, and a sound-money adherent who constantly rails against debasement of the dollar, aided and abetted by the quantitative efforts of the Fed. By his reckoning, the entire U.S. monetary system is now leveraged at about 20 to 1. Or, put another way, he says, "there's about $53 trillion in debt and not quite $3 trillion with which to repay it."
Worth noting is that neither the rest of the world, including our major creditors, nor the bond market have been noticeably atremble at the creeping devaluation of the dollar. Quite the opposite: the financial turmoil in Europe and fears of hard economic landings in China and most emerging markets have fueled demand for the greenback. Which perhaps tells you more about the rest of the world than anything else.
Be that as it may, Paul contends, leverage is exacting a serious toll by marginalizing real growth. We've reached a parlous state, he feels, when further asset-price increases can be catalyzed only by more of the hair of the dog that bit us—tthat is, by further infusions of credit or money.
A disturbing prospect that, all things considered, doesn't imbue us with confidence that this market can sustain any significant rally.
Another, and perhaps more urgent reason to doubt the capability of this wishy-washy market to stage a strong and reasonably enduring bull move is that the Europeans still seem very much at sea as they decide how to stanch the bleeding in their ranks. The European Central Bank, which has been all thumbs in tackling the worsening woes of its weaker members (and some of the supposedly stronger ones don't look all that great, either), once again last week failed to cut its interest rate of 1.5%. If nothing else, a reduction might have given the markets a momentary lift.
Meanwhile, Greece continues to skate on extremely thin ice in its attempt to avoid default, and it won't take all that much to launch it into a bone-chilling plunge. The credit agencies have been slashing ratings in the euro zone (Spain and Italy felt the knife last week) with something bordering on abandon, while in their tight little isle the Brits have been expressing their concerns with a hefty 75 billion-pound addition to their asset-purchasing facility, swelling the accumulated hoard to £275 billion.
Moreover, for what it's worth, in an interview on the BBC, a senior IMF advisor (so reports Mark Grant of Southwest Securities) ventures that there could be "a meltdown in sovereign debt" that might well spread throughout the European banking system and thence throughout the global financial system, including the U.S. Should that happen, he postulates, it could prove "more serious than the crisis in 2008."
The curriculum vitae of this gloomy prophet includes a Ph.D. from Harvard, and he served as U.S. undersecretary of commerce. None of that, of course, assures his forecast is on the money, but his credentials endow it as meriting consideration, and certainly didn't lessen our skepticism about the rally one whit.
"Better, But ... that rather succintly sums up the September employment report released Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Let's take the pleasant news first. Payrolls increased by a surprising 103,000, quite a contrast with the zero rise the previous month, which, it turns out, wasn't anywhere near as bad as originally reported. In fact, upward revisions of the previous two months were 57,000 in August and 42,000 in July.
The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%. All of the gain in jobs and then some came via the private sector, which added 137,000, while local governments shed 34,000 or so slots. The workweek was up a notch, but aggregate hours worked climbed 0.4%, the best showing since February.
Even construction—tnonresidential, need we say—tposted a gain. But as Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research notes, the 26,000 additions to some meaningful extent reflect repairs for damages caused by the hurricanes that raged through parts of the country, and he doubts that anything approaching that total will be sustained.
If nothing else, the upticks in the jobs report likely mean that a double-dip is not lurking right around the corner. But we can't honestly speak for the corner after this one. Or, as Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood, who put out the dandy Liscio Report, slyly open their take on last month's modest job gains: "What a relief. Worries about the recession can be held at bay for a least another month."
Their enthusiasm is limited by, among other things, the fact that U-6, which embraces both underemployment and unemployment, was up 0.3 points to 16.5%, the highest since December 2010, owing to a sizable jump in involuntary part-timers who were unable to find full-time work. Not exactly evidence of a hiring binge.
As Doug and Philippa point out, at recent rates of employment and population growth, it would take until 2045 to get back to the 2007 employment/population ratio of 63%.
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff's chief economist, shares their reservations. He admits that the jobs report caught him a bit by surprise, but on closer scrutiny he wonders how accurate it truly is. And, on that score, he's quick to mention that 45,000 Verizon workers, who had been on strike in August, were back on the job in September, and that obviously helped swell the employment total. Even so, he calculates, payrolls came in at roughly half the norm for this stage of the cycle.
He also fingers the decline in manufacturing employment, the first back-to-back contraction since this time last year, and the softness in durable-goods hires, the first two-month retreat since November/December 2009.
Dave also picked up on the fact that the bulk of the 398,000 gain in the Household Survey was contributed by part-timers, and the number of those working part-time for economic reasons shot up by an eye-popping 444,000, to 9.3 million—tthe most in a year.
In short, hold the hurrahs.
E-mail: editors@barrons.com
Sure. It was just a small piece, I'm sure you can find more on the story with a quick web search (or "google it" as they say).
I do think and feel that our 'dynasty' is in the midst of an identity complex -- we have lost our way and are strong-arming our dwindling leverage to remain relevant. The Govt has gone wild on the backs of bad business. I'm not sure why Too Big Too Fail has become the Govt's brainchild, but I believe they want to keep American/Western business relevant, ie., big and powerful, in spite of the looming Eastern threat. I'm not sure why we can't just stop buying 'shit' (and much of it is, btw) from China.
No more Shina* Mr. South Carolina :)
* denotes Shit from China
Your post perked my interest, especially considering I wrote these thoughts earlier the same day:
These are the times
that can make us men...
when it rains it floods
and then pours again...
the bloated are sick
and continue to gorge,
it's not just money they want,
but the power they hoard.
Hang up your phones
and listen to your soul,
just settle for a piece,
instead of wanting it all.
-It is the exploitation of the masses that have contributed significantly to the imbalance of wealth. Call it Capitalism gone bad, enabled by the Government...
I am not a management cheerleader and have repeatedly voice my anger over the years, but to blast management for achieving a 2 million dollar milestone, somewhat validating the safety profile of the high impact group is ludicrous.
Dalai Lama: China is built on lies, run by hypocrites
October 8, 2011
CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - China is built on lies and its officials are hypocrites, the Dalai Lama said on Saturday, speaking via videophone after visa problems prevented him from joining Archbishop Desmond Tutu's birthday celebrations in South Africa.
"Some Chinese officials describe me as a demon," the Tibetan spiritual leader said to loud applause as he put his index fingers either side of his head to mimic devil's horns.
"In reality, for the communist totalitarian system ... hypocrisy (and) telling lies has unfortunately become part of their lives."
He said the Chinese government was "uncomfortable" with people who tell the truth, adding that honest people live longer and he would like to attend Tutu's 90th birthday.
"At that time, don't forget to send me an invitation ... then we can test your government," he said to Tutu in an apparent reference to his visa debacle with South African authorities.
The government's failure to allow the Dalai Lama into the country has been seen as bowing to pressure from China, South Africa's largest trading partner that pledged to invest $2.5 billion in Africa's largest economy last week.
The 80-year old Tutu retired about a year ago from most public duties but has remained a prominent figure and is still seen as a voice of integrity.
(Reporting by Shafiek Tassiem; Editing by Phumza Macanda; and Louise Ireland)
Keys Found to KIBRA Memory Mystery
7 October 2011. KIBRA has been linked to human memory, but it hasn't been clear how this protein works in the brain. Two recent studies take steps to clarify its function in memory processes. One confirms that KIBRA supports episodic memory in humans, and hints that a genetic variant heightens hippocampal activation in aging. The other suggests that KIBRA protects memory in mice, perhaps by regulating AMPA receptor trafficking and synaptic plasticity. Together, the papers strengthen the notion that KIBRA plays a role in memory and provides a possible mechanism for its function.
Researchers first discovered KIBRA in connection with human memory in a 2006 genomewide screen (see ARF related news story on Papassotiropoulos et al., 2006). The name KIBRA stems from the protein's expression both in the kidney and in the brain. Led by Andreas Papassotiropoulos at the University of Basel, Switzerland, that study pinpointed a single nucleotide polymorphism—a thymine (T) in place of a cytosine (C)—that correlated with better episodic memory. In the same study, researchers noted that young T carriers have less hippocampal activation than performance-matched non-T carriers. The researchers interpreted that to mean that T carriers had to work less hard to achieve the same level of performance as non-T carriers.
Now, in the October 5 Journal of Neuroscience, Lars Nyberg, Umea University, Sweden, and colleagues confirm that T allele carriers outperformed non-carriers on an episodic memory task. However, they activated their hippocampi more. The research team, including first author Karolina Kauppi, tested 2,230 cognitively normal people aged 35-85 on word recall. KIBRA T carriers performed better than their age- and sex-matched non-carrier counterparts. In a separate functional magnetic resonance imaging study of 83 people aged 55-60, T carriers had increased hippocampal activation during the episodic memory task, relative to their non-T carrier counterparts, which is in direct contrast to Papassotiropoulos’ findings. The reason for the discrepancy is unclear, Kauppi and colleagues write. It could have to do with the age of the test populations (the previous study tested 22- to 23-year-olds). Kauppi and colleagues also used a slightly more demanding memory task, and a larger sample size, which has more statistical power.
More hippocampal activation would fit better with the better memory performance, said Kauppi. "For most studies, it's quite well accepted that increased activation in the hippocampus is related to improved memory in many different ways—you have longer duration of your memory, and its stronger and more vivid than if you have decreased activation," she noted.
Papassotiropoulos is not sure why there's a difference in hippocampal activation between the two studies, but agreed that age and task differences between the two studies could be factors. Regardless of the difference, he said the important finding is that KIBRA strongly associates with episodic memory, and that genetic variations somehow alter hippocampal functioning. "We still don't have any idea what the consequence of the KIBRA polymorphism is at the molecular level," he added. "So in these circumstances, we need to be very cautious about mechanistic interpretations of imaging in genetics studies."
Clues about KIBRA’s molecular function come from the September 22 Neuron. Researchers led by Richard Huganir of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, Maryland, propose that KIBRA regulates the movement of AMPA neurotransmitter receptors, which are essential for synaptic plasticity and learning. Huganir and colleagues isolated KIBRA about 10 years ago, before it had a name, when they found it bound to protein interacting with C-kinase 1 (PICK1). PICK1 maintains optimal numbers of AMPA receptors on the surface of neurons by inhibiting their reinsertion into the cell membrane—or recycling. When Huganir learned that KIBRA was implicated in human memory performance, he began to study what it did on the cellular level.
First authors Lauren Makuch and Lenora Volk immunoprecipitated KIBRA from mouse neurons and showed that, in addition to binding PICK1, it formed a complex with several other AMPAR regulators, hinting that KIBRA plays a role in AMPAR trafficking. The researchers then knocked down KIBRA by small hairpin RNAs and saw activity-dependent AMPAR recycling go up. This suggested that KIBRA, like PICK1, has to do with the activity-dependent recycling of AMPA receptors and synaptic plasticity. "The level of AMPA receptors has to be precisely controlled," said Volk. "Aberrant trafficking, one way or the other, impairs the ability to have normal plasticity."
That abnormal plasticity was evident in the KIBRA knockout mice the team created. While young knockout mice seemed normal, adult animals, though otherwise viable, exhibited deficits in hippocampal long-term potentiation and long-term depression. The older KIBRA knockouts more slowly learned to associate a foot shock with a tone, and more quickly forgot those associations. Taken together, the results link KIBRA to AMPAR trafficking and synaptic plasticity required for normal hippocampus-dependent learning in adult mice, the authors wrote.
"This suggests that in humans, that's what KIBRA is doing, too—regulating memory recall through regulating receptor trafficking and synaptic plasticity," said Huganir.
Since previous research found that non-T carriers have an increased risk of late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (see Corneveaux et al., 2010), altered AMPAR trafficking could be one reason for the cognitive deficits in AD patients, the authors wrote. The work suggests "that this gene is protecting against memory loss in late-onset AD by regulating receptor trafficking and synaptic plasticity," said Huganir.
Neither paper points to a potential treatment for Alzheimer‘s. For scientists who study KIBRA, "our ultimate goal is to identify druggable partners of KIBRA, which we can manipulate pharmacologically to see if we can enhance memory," Papassotiropoulos told ARF.—Gwyneth Zakaib.
References:
Kauppi K, Nilsson L, Adolfsson R, Eriksson E, Nyberg L. KIBRA Polymorphism Is Related to Enhanced Memory and Elevated Hippocampal Processing. J. Neurosci. 2011 Oct 5; 31(40):14218-14222. Abstract
Makuch L, Volk L, Anggono V, Johnson RC, Yu Y, Duning K, Kremerskothen J, Xia J, Takamiya K, Huganir RL. Regulation of AMPA Receptor Function by the Human Memory-Associated Gene KIBRA. Neuron. 2011 Sep 22; 71: 1022-1029. Abstract
Oops! I mean 'asterisk.'
Any semblance of positive news for Cortex will be littered with a boldface asterick (*) -- it is the milker's curse :)
It's Cortex, it's Ampakines, no.....it's BIMU-8!:
A Sigh of Relief for Painkillers
by Jennifer Couzin-Frankel on 10 July 2003, 12:00 AM
Opiates are powerful painkillers, but they come with some baggage: a troubling tendency to depress breathing. By giving an experimental drug along with a narcotic, a team of researchers has eliminated the opiate's potentially lethal side effect while preserving its ability to blunt pain. The result could have far-reaching clinical implications for anesthesia and the treatment of acute and chronic pain.
Like morphine and other narcotics, a painkiller called fentanyl disrupts nerve cells deep in the brain that register pain as well as other cells that govern breathing rhythm. Well-controlled doses of the drug can work wonders, but overexposure can be disastrous: In October 2002, 129 people died in a Moscow theater when authorities subdued hostage-takers there by pumping what many believe was fentanyl into the building.
Even before the hostage crisis, physiologist Diethelm Richter and his colleagues at the University of Göttingen, Germany, were wondering whether fentanyl's effects on breathing and pain could be separated. The group examined a small chunk of rodent brainstem called the pre-Bötzinger complex (PBC), which regulates breathing. Many cells in the PBC contain a receptor called 5-HT4(a). All these receptor-bearing cells in the PBC, the scientists found, also sport the -opioid receptors that react to the drugs. That makes sense, given that opiates can depress breathing. The finding also raised the prospect of controlling pain without disturbing breathing.
To see if their hunch was on target, the scientists dosed rats with so much fentanyl that they needed to be put on ventilators. Then Richter's group added an experimental drug that activates 5-HT4(a). The animals' breathing returned to roughly 80% of normal. And fentanyl remained so effective that the rats didn't flick their tails away from a hot lamp, they report in the 11 June issue of Science. They suggest that even though fentanyl may no longer bind to opioid receptors in the PBC, narcotic-sensitive brain cells outside the PBC are enough to deaden pain.
"It was idealism, if you like, wondering whether or not these processes could be untangled," says Julian Paton, a physiologist at the University of Bristol, U.K., who was not involved in the research. The success, he says, is "spectacular." But the 5-HT4(a) activators are far from ready for use in humans. For one, scientists don't know what the receptors control aside from breathing, so the side effects of enhancing them are uncertain, says Patrice Guyenet, a neuropharmacologist at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.
More Accidental Drug Poisonings of Children
By TARA PARKER-POPE
http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/16/more-accidental-drug-poisonings-of-children/
September 16, 2011, 12:38 PM
Tony Cenicola/The New York Times
The number of accidental drug poisonings among young children has grown over the last seven years. The growing use of prescription drugs by adults, from pain relievers to sleep aids and heart medications, has led to an increase in accidental drug poisonings of children, new research shows.
Despite childproof caps and safety warnings, the number of accidental drug poisonings among young children surged 22 percent from 2001 to 2008, according to a new study in The Journal of Pediatrics. The reason, say researchers, is that prescription drug use by both adults and children is on the rise, and there are simply more bottles of pills in the home that can potentially be accessed by curious children.
Researchers from Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center and the University of Cincinnati analyzed national poison control center data on 544,133 children ages 5 and younger who had visited an emergency department between 2001 and 2008 after an accidental medication poisoning.
In 95 percent of the cases, the poisoning occurred because the child ingested the drug, as opposed to a labeling or dosage error by a parent or health care worker. Prescription drugs were a bigger problem than over-the-counter drugs. Prescription drugs accounted for 55 percent of the drug-poisoning visits to the emergency room, but represented nearly three quarters of serious injuries. In fact, 43 percent of the children admitted to the hospital after accidentally ingesting a prescription drug ended up in intensive care.
The biggest culprits were opioid drugs for pain relief, like oxycodone and codeine; sedatives, like muscle relaxers and sleep aids; and prescription heart drugs.
The sheer ubiquity of prescription drugs in the home is most likely contributing to the increase in accidental poisonings, said the study authors.
“It is also possible that some types of medications previously less available in the environment of young children have become more available,” the authors wrote. “As obesity and the metabolic syndrome have increased in prevalence and affected younger adults, more homes of small children may have antihypertensive and antidiabetic medicines prescribed for parents or siblings.”
Changes in drug technology may also be contributing to the increase. For instance, the increase in sustained-release medications may be contributing to more severe poisonings. Shifts in prescribing practices may also be leading to more toxic drugs in the home. For instance, heart patients who in the past took diuretics for blood pressure are now prescribed beta blockers and calcium channel antagonists, which can lead to more toxic overdoses.
Parents may also be becoming less vigilant about poisonproofing homes by storing drugs in locked cabinets.
“All medication users find it inconvenient to store medication in locked cabinets, particularly medications that are used once or several times daily,” the authors wrote. “They may not understand the life-threatening impact of some medications in just one dose, discount the potential toxicity of O.T.C. medications, or underestimate the likelihood that it will happen in their home with their children.”
The authors said the best solution would be to design new packages for both adult and pediatric drugs that would not only be difficult to open but also make it more difficult for a young child to ingest large quantities. For instance, liquid medication bottles can be designed to restrict flow. Pill bottles can be made to dispense only one tablet at a time.
Dear Stoll/Varney,
WAKE UP!...and smell the coffee
GET OFF!...your high horsey...
I slightly less appalling mgmt performance duo (or considerably less appalling, depending on the 'investment' time frame) has decided to pass the reigns off for a shot at a future (55% gain today):
Neurologix Appoints Adrian Adams as Company Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
- Andrew I. Koven Also Joins Neurologix as Company President and Chief Administrative Officer -
Press Release Source: Neurologix, Inc. On Tuesday September 20, 2011, 8:42 am EDT
FORT LEE, N.J., Sept. 20, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Neurologix, Inc. (OTCBB:NRGX.ob - News), a biotechnology company engaged in the development of innovative gene therapies for disorders of the brain and central nervous system, announced today that Adrian Adams has been appointed Company Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) effective immediately. In addition, Andrew I. Koven joins the Neurologix executive team as the Company's President and Chief Administrative Officer. Both Messrs. Adams and Koven will also immediately join the Company's Board of Directors, with Mr. Adams assuming the role of its Chairman.
Mr. Adams brings over 30 years of experience in pharmaceutical executive leadership with a record of successfully building organizations, delivering successful results against short, medium and long-term goals and creating shareholder value. In his role as Chairman and CEO, Mr. Adams will work toward strengthening the Company's research and development, operations and commercial infrastructures in support of Neurologix's lead compound, NLX-P101, which has demonstrated positive results to date in the treatment of Parkinson's disease.
"I am excited to join Neurologix, a company with innovative and pioneering science at its core. Along with new President Andrew Koven and the current quality executive team, I look forward to assembling over time a strong and peak-performing organization that will build upon the Company's legacy of groundbreaking research and development of gene therapy treatments for Parkinson's disease and other specialty neurological conditions, with the goal of bringing important new treatments to physicians and their patients," said Mr. Adams.
Most recently, Mr. Adams served as President and CEO of Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc., where he oversaw the commercialization of prescription pharmaceutical products and led the company through a strategic acquisition by global pharmaceutical leader Merck & Co. Inc. for approximately $430 million. Prior to Inspire, Mr. Adams served as President and CEO of Sepracor Inc. until its acquisition by Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co. for approximately $2.6 billion. Under his leadership, Sepracor conducted multiple strategic business development activities, including the in-licensing and out-licensing of several products. Prior to joining Sepracor, Mr. Adams was President and Chief Executive Officer of Kos Pharmaceuticals, Inc. from 2002 until the acquisition of the company by Abbott Laboratories in December 2006 for approximately $3.7 billion. During his tenure he increased revenues tenfold and led the transformation of Kos into a fully integrated and profitable pharmaceutical company with annual revenues approaching $1 billion. During his 30 years of experience, Mr. Adams also held senior marketing positions at ICI (now part of AstraZeneca), SmithKline Beecham and Novartis. He has extensive expertise launching major global brands, and has driven successful corporate development activities including financing, product acquisitions, investments, in-licensing and company M&A activities.
The addition of Mr. Koven as Company President and Chief Administrative Officer will also support the continued growth of Neurologix. As Company President, Mr. Koven will be responsible for legal, intellectual property, corporate development and licensing, human resources and general daily operations and will report directly to Mr. Adams. Mr. Koven has more than 26 years of experience practicing law, with over 18 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry. Most recently he held the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative and Legal Officer at Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc., where he was responsible for the legal, intellectual property, CD&L and compliance departments. At Inspire, his extensive expertise in corporate development and licensing, securities law, litigation, intellectual property management, compliance and corporate governance were essential to building the company's long-term shareholder value and sustainable success. Previously, Mr. Koven served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Sepracor Inc., and as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Kos Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Clark A. Johnson, who has been a director of Neurologix since February 2004, stepped down as Vice Chairman, President and CEO upon Mr. Adams's and Mr. Koven's arrivals. Martin J. Kaplitt, M.D., who was a founder and has been a member of the Board since November 1999, relinquished his position as Board Chairman upon Mr. Adams's assumption of such role. Both Mr. Johnson and Dr. Kaplitt will remain on the Board of Directors.
"We thank Clark for his leadership of Neurologix and his successful stewardship of NLX-P101 as the Company completed the first successful Phase 2 study of a gene therapy product for Parkinson's disease," said Dr. Kaplitt. "We are excited and hopeful that the experienced leadership provided by Mr. Adams and Mr. Koven will help Neurologix secure the additional financing needed to carry out the Company's planned operations and business activities as we continue to pursue new and, potentially, exciting milestones in the development of gene therapy treatments for patients in urgent need."
About Neurologix
Neurologix, Inc. (OTCBB:NRGX.ob - News) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to the discovery, development and commercialization of life-altering gene transfer therapies for serious disorders of the brain and central nervous system. Neurologix's therapeutic approach is built upon the groundbreaking research of its scientific founders and advisors, whose accomplishments have formed the foundation of gene therapy for neurological illnesses. The Company's current programs address such conditions as Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, depression and Huntington's disease, all of which are large markets not adequately served by current therapeutic options. For more information, please visit the Neurologix website at http://www.neurologix.net.
Drug deaths now outnumber traffic fatalities in U.S., data show
Fueling the surge are prescription pain and anxiety drugs that are potent, highly addictive and especially dangerous when combined with one another or with other drugs or alcohol.
By Lisa Girion, Scott Glover and Doug Smith, Los Angeles Times
5:55 p.m. EDT, September 17, 2011
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/health/la-me-drugs-epidemic-20110918,0,4247201.story
Propelled by an increase in prescription narcotic overdoses, drug deaths now outnumber traffic fatalities in the United States, a Times analysis of government data has found.
Drugs exceeded motor vehicle accidents as a cause of death in 2009, killing at least 37,485 people nationwide, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
While most major causes of preventable death are declining, drugs are an exception. The death toll has doubled in the last decade, now claiming a life every 14 minutes. By contrast, traffic accidents have been dropping for decades because of huge investments in auto safety.
Public health experts have used the comparison to draw attention to the nation's growing prescription drug problem, which they characterize as an epidemic. This is the first time that drugs have accounted for more fatalities than traffic accidents since the government started tracking drug-induced deaths in 1979.
Fueling the surge in deaths are prescription pain and anxiety drugs that are potent, highly addictive and especially dangerous when combined with one another or with other drugs or alcohol. Among the most commonly abused are OxyContin, Vicodin, Xanax and Soma. One relative newcomer to the scene is Fentanyl, a painkiller that comes in the form of patches and lollipops and is 100 times more powerful than morphine.
Such drugs now cause more deaths than heroin and cocaine combined.
"The problem is right here under our noses in our medicine cabinets," said Laz Salinas, a sheriff's commander in Santa Barbara, which has seen a dramatic rise in prescription drug deaths in recent years.
Overdose victims range in age and circumstance from teenagers who pop pills to get a heroin-like high to middle-aged working men and women who take medications prescribed for strained backs and bum knees and become addicted.
A review of hundreds of autopsy reports in Southern California reveals one tragic demise after another: A 19-year-old Army recruit, who had just passed his military physical, took a handful of Xanax and painkillers while partying with friends. A groom, anxious over his upcoming wedding, overdosed on a cocktail of prescription drugs. A teenage honors student overdosed on painkillers her father left in his medicine cabinet from a surgery years earlier. A toddler was orphaned after both parents overdosed on prescription drugs months apart. A grandmother suffering from chronic back pain apparently forgot she'd already taken her daily regimen of pills and ended up double dosing.
Many died after failed attempts at rehab — or after using one too many times while contemplating quitting. That's apparently what happened to a San Diego woman found dead with a Fentanyl patch on her body, one of five she'd applied in the 24 hours before her death. Next to her on the couch was a notebook with information about rehab.
The seeds of the problem were planted more than a decade ago by well-meaning efforts by doctors to mitigate suffering, as well as aggressive sales campaigns by pharmaceutical manufacturers. In hindsight, the liberalized prescription of pain drugs "may in fact be the cause of the epidemic we're now facing," said Linda Rosenstock, dean of the UCLA School of Public Health.
In some ways, prescription drugs are more dangerous than illicit ones because users don't have their guard up, said Los Angeles County Sheriff's Sgt. Steve Opferman, head of a county task force on prescription drug-related crimes. "People feel they are safer with prescription drugs because you get them from a pharmacy and they are prescribed by a doctor," Opferman said. "Younger people believe they are safer because they see their parents taking them. It doesn't have the same stigma as using street narcotics."
Lori Smith said she believes that's what her son might have been thinking the night he died six months shy of his 16th birthday. Nolan Smith, of Aliso Viejo, loved to surf, sail and fish with his brother and father. He suffered from migraines and anxiety but showed no signs of drug abuse, his mother said.
The night before he died in January 2009, Nolan called his mother at work, asking for a ride to the girls basketball game at Aliso Niguel High School. Lori told him she couldn't get away.
When Nolan didn't come home that evening, his parents called police and his friends. His body was found the next morning on a stranger's front porch.
A toxicology test turned up Zoloft, which had been prescribed for anxiety, and a host of other drugs that had not been prescribed, including two additional anti-anxiety drugs, as well as morphine and marijuana.
All investigators could give the family were theories.
"They said they will have parties where the kids will throw a bunch of pills in a bowl and the kids take them without knowing what they are," Lori said. "We called all of his friends, but no one would say they were with him. But he must have been with someone. You just don't do that by yourself."
The triumph of public health policies that have improved traffic safety over the years through the use of seat belts, air bags and other measures stands in stark contrast to the nation's record on prescription drugs. Even though more people are driving more miles, traffic fatalities have dropped by more than a third since the early 1970s to 36,284 in 2009. Drug-induced deaths had equaled or surpassed traffic fatalities in California, 22 other states and the District of Columbia even before the 2009 figures revealed the shift at the national level, according to the Times analysis.
The Centers for Disease Control collects data on all causes of death each year and analyzes them to identify health problems. Drug-induced deaths are mostly accidental overdoses but also include suicides and fatal diseases caused by drugs.
The CDC's 2009 statistics are the agency's most current. They are considered preliminary because they reflect 96% of death certificates filed. The remaining are deaths for which the causes were not immediately clear.
Drug fatalities more than doubled among teens and young adults between 2000 and 2008, years for which more detailed data are available. Deaths more than tripled among people aged 50 to 69, the Times analysis found. In terms of sheer numbers, the death toll is highest among people in their 40s.
Overdose deaths involving prescription painkillers, including OxyContin and Vicodin, and anti-anxiety drugs such as Valium and Xanax more than tripled between 2000 and 2008.
The rise in deaths corresponds with doctors prescribing more painkillers and anti-anxiety medications. The number of prescriptions for the strongest pain pills filled at California pharmacies, for instance, increased more than 43% since 2007 — and the doses grew by even more, nearly 50%, according to a review of prescribing data collected by the state.
Those prescriptions provide relief to pain sufferers but also fuel a thriving black market. Prescription drugs are traded on Internet chat rooms that buzz with offers of "vikes," "percs" and "oxys" for $10 to $80 a pill. They are sold on street corners along with heroin, marijuana and crack. An addiction to prescription drugs can be costly; a heavy OxyContin habit can run twice as much as a heroin addiction, authorities say.
On a recent weekday morning, Los Angeles County undercover sheriff's deputies posing as drug buyers easily purchased enough pills to fill a medicine cabinet on a sidewalk a few blocks south of Los Angeles City Hall.
The most commonly abused prescription drug, hydrocodone, also is the most widely prescribed drug in America, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency. Better known as Vicodin, the pain reliever is prescribed more often than the top cholesterol drug and the top antibiotic.
"We have an insatiable appetite for this drug — insatiable," Joseph T. Rannazzisi, a top DEA administrator, told a group of pharmacists at a regulatory meeting in Sacramento.
In April, the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy announced initiatives aimed at stanching prescription drug abuse. The plans include a series of drug take-back days, modeled after similar programs involving weapons, in which consumers are encouraged to turn leftover prescription drugs in to authorities. Another initiative would develop voluntary courses to train physicians on how to safely prescribe pain drugs, a curriculum that is not widely taught in medical schools.
Initial attempts to reverse the trend in drug deaths — such as state-run prescription drug-monitoring programs aimed at thwarting "doctor-shopping" addicts — don't appear to be having much effect, experts say.
"What's really scary is we don't know a lot about how to reduce prescription deaths," said Amy S.B. Bohnert, a researcher at the University of Michigan Medical School who is studying ways to lower the risk of prescription drugs.
"It's a wonderful medical advancement that we can treat pain," Bohnert said. "But we haven't figured out the safety belt yet."
lisa.girion@latimes.com