You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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IMO, ERHC will have no future dealings with the Chinese. I believe Sinopec will never return to the JDZ or EEZ ever. The only reason they have not officially pulled out is because the JDA is not forcing the issue. IMO the JDA is trying desperately to find a replacement for Sinopec, but those are difficult shoes to fill based on the past failures. Will erhc's current partner, CEAPA, come in to fill the those shoes? Maybe, but only after a huge success in Kenya when they realize what a great partner ERHC makes. When will/can this happen? Well into the future, maybe 2017.
DeGen
I expect the longs to be very happy this next week as the share hits double digits and stays there. The shorts may get squeezed and cause the share price to increase even more. The share may reach new all time highs by the end of the month. I would hate to be a short next week.
DeGen
Hi Badog, I am glad you are still here, but I believe you are only a "watcher" and no looker invested in ERHC (or perhaps only a few shares). You say those that bought in the 4s and 5s may book a nice profit and sell and I agree that that will and continue to happen. IMO, this profit selling is keeping the present share price down or at the least slowing down the rise that is now occurring.
Keep in mind there are many long timers here that held on to there shares when the share was down in 4s and 5s, but many of those loaded up with more shares to cost average down and they long timers are not the ones selling now. The long timers could have given up when the share price was In the 4s and 5s, but MOST held on through the storm and their shares remain in strong hands (like myself and many, many here in iHUB). However, there was one very vocal poster (middy) who sold at or near the bottom. I do not think anyone misses him here and likely believe he deserved his fate for selling, instead on weathering the lows.
The share price outlook remains strong as ERHC has a strong cash rich partner who has been rejected in Kenya before and very likely will want to blow this chance. But the bottom line still is and will always be finding oil. ERHC's very words are encouraging and I like that and will not be selling whe the SP hits 10 cent or flies through the teens and I am sure many others will not be selling either.
Earlier last week I predicted the SP would be in double digits by the end of the week. It was close but not quite. I think if the overall market had not tanked, the SP for ERHC would have made it. If the market, recovers, which I think it will, the SP should be in double digits real soon. I agree with you ferab.
Hey Wiz, read post #288976, where claudealain tries to buy at 3.4 when the SP was in 4s, he realized his price and bought higher in 4s/5s. I dont think he saved any money by staying on 3.5 as he would have missed out on some nice gains. Maybe you should take heed The SP can shoot up any day and as we get closer to September.
July 14, 2014 from Jim Cramer lightning round:
Opko Health (OPK): "This is a spec for the long haul. You need to get used to the volatility."
That article is old news, dated December 13, 2013, almost 7 months ago.
The low volume days continue and the bid/ask spread is again over 10%. The incredibly wide bid/ask spread causes the low volume and low volume helps cause the SP to drift lower. At the moment the SP has fallen to just below 8 cents. However, IMO I will make a bold prediction that the SP will get back to double digits by the end of the week. There are just to many irons in the fire to sell at these low prices and IMO most here agree and are not selling.
DeGen
Ps: although I am spending this week at a beach resort (Club Royal in Playa del Carmen, near Cancun) I realize how much better I have it in Naples, FL. Naples is truly paradise and IMO the best place in the world to live. If it wasn't for the smog, the traffic, the high cost of housing and the taxes southern Calif would be better, IMO SoCal is a close second.
Krom, I also agree with your amusing musings. I especially agree with with your last post that those that participated in the offering were those that were very knowledgable about ERHC. Many of the regulars here committed to the offering, and I would say those here know more about ERHC then the general public. Most of all I like being labeled aa smart for participating in the offering although I has my doubts when the SP was in the 4s.
I also agreed about the many things that could occur with with ERHC, the many irons in the fire syndrome. Certainly any of the irons could become hot enough at any time to send the SP north at any time. But even if we have to wait to September for something to happen, IT WILL HAPPEN! When good news is announced the SP will rise quickly. Will it go to 20 cents? Very likely. Will it go higher? Very possible.
As you say the SP has now based and should only go north from. August begins this week and the August doldrums will be over soon. Not soon enough be me or most here as all of us here been waiting to be rewarded for our many years of being patient.
A very wise poster frequently said, "PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE."
In a down market where the Dow is down over 100, one would ask if OPKO cam hold $9? So far so good, in fact the SP is up a few cents. IMO, it looks very likely OPKO will continue to $9 and actually climb upwards to double digits. Those longs would bought should be be very happy. Those shorts can only believe in myths.
Even though the volume has been very light today, the SP held close to ten cents. It appears the SP has a solid base in the 9s and should not fall under that figure. I guess we have have to wait for the volume to rise before we hit the teens, but it's only a matter of time. Most here are holding on to their shares very tightly, like myself and just enjoying the slow rise upwards. Of course, the SP will have setbacks as it goes up, but as the weeks/months go by this summer, we should get into the teens and even much higher if some encouraging news come down from management. Peter you can issue a update PR whenever you feel like it!
Who is selling? IMO, not any of those that have been here many years. Maybe some of those that bought in Apr, May, June when the SP was in the 5-6 cent range and they banked a nice 50% plus profit in a few months.
In any case after going thru the low SP for so many months, it's nice to see double digits, although the SP has been dipping below ten cents as of today. But there was real low volume today. As soon as the volume returns, I think we should shoot up to the teens. Hopefully, hold the teens through the summer, then spike into the 20s or higher when the survey results are announced. Dead money till sept, I don't think so!
DeGen
FACT: the share price of OPKO did hold $9 as evidenced by the actual closing price on Friday.
Anyone that said differently is just wrong.
This AM the share price is clearly OVER $9 ($9.07 as of this post)
DeGen
We all know Kenya is just south (and a little west) of Somalia directly on the Indian Ocean on the east coast of Africa. How close to Somalian pirates? Very close! Thank god we have Sylvan on our side with his cartaz!
EEZ and JDZ on west coast, Kenya on the east coast, Ghana on the southwest coast and Chad in the middle of Africa. ERHC has central Africa well covered. Do you remember when the board used to complain about the ERHC's management galavanting across Africa? I think those trips are now paying off.
It looks like ERHC may have another iron in the fire, Ghana. So let's all sit around the camp fire and go over the irons. Are any if these irons hot? Let's try to put WAG on how likely each iron is likely to become hot enough to be a branding iron.
1. Ghana - not much known, very little progress, so a real long shot - 200 to 1
2. JDZ - still in the mix as something is going on behind the scenes, September may finally reveal the drilling results in more details, new partners may replace the ones now dragging their feet. Still a long shot, maybe 50- 1.
3. EEZ - pcs signings looking good, but no surveys to provide enough information to give promise. Still a long shot 50-1
4. Chad - for the amount of time Chad has been in ERHC's pocket, not much has been disclosed. Need surveys to see if this will produce. Still a long shot, 25-1.
5. Kenya- real progress on determining if there is oil/gas. Positive PRs. But awaiting the survey results. This is ERHC's best shot at 3-1
Many of the irons are real long shots, but can't be overlooked as they possibilities. The real meat is Kenya and there is not denying that. But Kenya is still 3-1 and that is no guarantee.
Will I see you at the casino or the campfire?
DeGen
Ps: its nice to have many different para mutual tickets in the same horse race. It makes it easier to pick a winner.
Please let Richkan know about our little secret club over here. He may want to post in a safe environment.
Although the volume is somewhat fair, today there was 3 sells for every 1 buy. The price held at ~10 cents all day, except for some sells in the 9s late in the day. This is a good sign that the price held ten cents with all the selling. Nearly the same thing happened yesterday.
DeGen
Boy, richkan, that a blast from the past. Richkan has not posted for about 7 years! I still have him member marked! Seek, is he still following ERHC ? IMO, the the JDZ being like Jubilee was kicked around the the board way back when bUT before the dismall drilling results.
The bid / ask spread has ballooned to an incredible 20%! This is redicuous! Of course trading will come to a halt. Only those willing to pay the ask will trade, no one will sell at 20% below ask (the bid). Come on MMs tighten up the spread!
If the volume continues in the 1/2 mil plus range, the SP should hit 12 cents again by the end of the week. This time is should hold there and take an immediate drop like it did last week.
Where are those posters who were hollering dead money until September?
The SP hit 12 cents with 1.22 mil share traded. I thought once there was good volume, the SP would go up, but never in my wildest dreams did I think the SP would rise this fast. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I hope we hold ten cents by the end of the week.
The SP touched 8 cents and there is 350K share bid at 7.85 cents. It looks like some volume is finally coming in. Does someone know something? Someone who has access to the survey results? This could only be good.
DeGen
Ps: I don't feel sorry for those winers who complained and complained (MTO) and sold a couple of months ago in the 5s. They missed out on a 50% gain so far.
White candle? Please check today's buy/sell statistics. It was 6 to 1 in favor of sellers. The good news is that the SP held the 7s with fairly large sell volume. The volume is still no where near what we need to really make the SP move higher, but the sellers keep moving up their ask price. This is good, as most here will not let go of their shares in single digits. In fact, I don't think those here will sell in the teens or the low twenties! But, we have a long time to wait to find that out.
DeGen
Is holding ERHC dead money until the fall (likely when the survey results come)?
First of all, those naysayers were saying that in April and May when the SP hovered in the five cent range. So, already they have been proven wrong as in June the SP has hovered in the six cent range. It appears that shareholders are holding on to their shares tightly and forcing the ask price higher and higher as most sellers will not settle for the low bid offers, especially with a 10-15% bid/ask spread.
It is my opinion that with the sellers continuing to push up the ask price over the next few months, this stock is definitely not dead money. I predict a very slow rise in the SP over the summer possibly hitting the 8s by the end of summer. Not dead money at all. The days of picking up real cheap shares in the 4a & 5s are gone.
DeGen
The Dr. Has already contacted OPKO to set up a meeting re 4Kscore. I also emailed the Dr. the minutes of the 4Kscore presentation oduring the recent AUA conferference in Orlando this May. I still can not believe why ANY urologist in the US does not know about 4Kscore. OPKO needs better marketing IMO as this presentation should be must reading for every urologist.
Yes, VIP I have been around about 8 years. If you recall I was very active in getting the DOJ to officially end their investigation. However, to clarify the points of my post. It was two fold.
First and most important was to point out how the highs of the day have been really strong since June 1st and even stronger the last 3 trading days (over 7).
Second and more philosophical, was the volume discussion. Years past, the dollar amount of the daily trades was more like in the $75-100K range quite regularly. This compares to recent the dollar amount of the daily trades is more like in the 5K range, only 1/15th to 1/20th what is was in the past. Dollar volume represents the public's interest in the stock. All I am saying is that when the public's interest in this stock increases, so will the dollar volume of the trades. When this happens the share price will rise. IMO, the SP rise will be rapid because the shares are so tightly held. The large bid/ask spread indicates few sellers will let go of their shares at the pathetic bid price. This large spread also will cause higher highs and higher lows as we all wait for survey results.
This is mostly all just my opinion and welcome any others to put in their two cents.
DeGen
Ps: this board has been so much better since MTO has sold his shares.
The chart below is for June. Is should be noted that the high for every day in June was at least 6.4 cents with the most recent three days 7, 7.4 and 7.4 cents. The biggest problem is the anemic volume, with is only averaging about 100k shares traded. This translates into an average dollar volume of only ~$7,000 a day. In order for this stock to become a recognized actively traded company, the trading volume MUST be in the several millions daily, with frequent days in the tens of millions.
Will that ever occur? Well the trades may increase when the initial findings are announced, but not in the range of millions of trades. Maybe when oil drilling is announced trading will get to the millions, but we really need an oil discovery to trade in the millions on a daily basic. Maybe in 2015, but not this year.
Historical Prices
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj
Close
2014/06/20 0.073 0.074 0.063 0.067 96,500 0.067
2014/06/19 0.063 0.074 0.063 0.064 145,429 0.064
2014/06/18 0.069 0.070 0.059 0.069 93,535 0.069
2014/06/17 0.065 0.066 0.060 0.066 224,220 0.066
2014/06/16 0.060 0.065 0.059 0.064 202,035 0.064
2014/06/13 0.065 0.065 0.057 0.065 39,256 0.065
2014/06/12 0.064 0.064 0.052 0.064 91,870 0.064
2014/06/11 0.066 0.066 0.062 0.064 167,755 0.064
2014/06/10 0.065 0.066 0.055 0.066 139,350 0.066
2014/06/09 0.059 0.065 0.058 0.065 218,333 0.065
2014/06/06 0.060 0.066 0.052 0.066 274,938 0.066
2014/06/05 0.055 0.064 0.055 0.064 189,246 0.064
2014/06/04 0.062 0.064 0.060 0.060 16,320 0.060
2014/06/03 0.059 0.064 0.055 0.064 141,372 0.064
2014/06/02 0.062 0.066 0.059 0.064 100,542 0.064
I do like the 7s, but th volume is so thin, the SP could be back in the 5s with any wave of selling. The current trading represents only about $10k in dollars, which is so small that any big trades could push the SP lower or possibly much higher if they are from buyers. We need volume to sustain the 7s.
DeGen
Ten minutes after market opening and the bid is 57 cents and ask 74 cents. Looks like there will not be too many trades with that kind of spread.
Krom, there are many many IHUB members who check this board at least once a day, but ashamed to admit it. This is because this stock has been such a loser over the last several years, one does not like exposing oneself to STILL be associated with this lemon.
However, those many that still remain are waiting for this to turn into lemonade, as someday it will. No one knows when that day will occur, but one keeps checking here to find out.
Remember, Patience, Patience, Patience!!!
DeGen
After oscillating in the 9s for a couple of weeks, I believe it's time to move forward and break into double digits by the end I'd the week or early next week. Any buys in the 9s will be rewarded.
DeGen
Amen, to I told you so!
My statement to those all those who remain after suffering for many, many years.
PATIENCE, PATIENC, PATIENCE!
I missed Cramer tonight. Can anyone provide a summary of what was said.
Also, note that TheStreet (Cramer's site) rates OPKO a SELL. I wonder if that will change in the near future.
Troy/Krom, I have been in the boat along with you guys for just about the same number of years. Chasing WGMGY through the Internet govt hoops did not work well for me because of the asshole Frist, but Internet poker/gambling will eventually become a reality. Things I have been saying all along have finally come to pass. First and foremost after 100s of year courts ruling poker was a game of chance (thus gambling), courts have finally ruled that poker is a game of skill. This, exempting poker from most state's gambling regulations and permitting Internet poker. Second,I have explained that the wire act ONLY applied to sports betting and not other online gaming, like slots. Finally, the courts agreed. Again I was too far ahead of the game along with my investment in WGMGY and lost a ton of money.
The same may happen with ERHC since what appeared like a sure thing in finding oil in the JDZ with 5 shots to get lucky, only to come up empty. But ERHC had a backup plan and gained drilling rights in Chad and Kenya for a song ( or maybe a goat). The oil has not been found as of yet, but I truly believe it is only a matter of time until oil is found and the share price takes off. For a nickel a share it appears this is a great bet. However, this will not happen over night and one must be patient. As I has said many times before PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE.
DeGen
Ps. I have sure enjoyed the posts of Troy and Krom over the last 15 years and hope someday we all meet in Vegas to share our war stories and fly home in our private jets!
Pss: let's not forget the rest of the guys, JuliusIrving, dbernet, tapco, opusx, YankeMike and his dad. All have contributed much to both boards over the years.
Troy/Krom, I have been in the boat along with you guys for just about the same number of years. Chasing WGMGY through the Internet govt hoops did not work well for me because of the asshole Frist, but Internet poker/gambling will eventually become a reality. Things I have been saying all along have finally come to pass. First and foremost after 100s of year courts ruling poker was a game of chance (thus gambling), courts have finally ruled that poker is a game of skill. This, exempting poker from most state's gambling regulations and permitting Internet poker. Second,I have explained that the wire act ONLY applied to sports betting and not other online gaming, like slots. Finally, the courts agreed. Again I was too far ahead of the game along with my investment in WGMGY and lost a ton of money.
The same may happen with ERHC since what appeared like a sure thing in finding oil in the JDZ with 5 shots to get lucky, only to come up empty. But ERHC had a backup plan and gained drilling rights in Chad and Kenya for a song ( or maybe a goat). The oil has not been found as of yet, but I truly believe it is only a matter of time until oil is found and the share price takes off. For a nickel a share it appears this is a great bet. However, this will not happen over night and one must be patient. As I has said many times before PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE.
DeGen
Ps. I have sure enjoyed the posts of Troy and Krom over the last 15 years and hope someday we all meet in Vegas to share our war stories and fly home in our private jets!
Pss: let's not forget the rest of the guys, JuliusIrving, dbernet, tapco, opusx, YankeMike and his dad. All have contributed much to both boards over the years.
Best comment ( joke) of the year.
Farrell, EXCELLENT post! I am always surprised how much knowledge so many here have about ERHC. It appears there are so many here that follow IHUB regularly but post infrequently. I bet most here have spent more time following this board then they did studying when they were in school. We should all have a Ph D in ERHC by now. Keep in mind how much more money those with a Ph D make so all this studying should eventually payoff. Please do not cut class so you can keep up with the ERHC saga.
If this investor somewhere on the internet covered his short position of let's say 500,000 shares of ERHC over the last few weeks the share price price should have gone up. When shorts cover, they buy shares and this normally forces the share price up. However the SP has hovered in the 5s over the several week. This just adds to th confusion of whether or not this investor was shorting ERHC and how many shares were involved.
I am off on a one week cruise and expect the SP to be over 7.5 cents when I return. The SP should start to slowly move up as investors realize ERHC's partnership deal will actually lead to drilling and likely finding oil.
DeGen