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Go to Cespa's website and look up the JDA with Kenya.
After reading the agreement, it appears to me that they were interested in the Geology of their block as much as the oil by stating the well was exploratory in nature or an explanation well if you will.
Sneak
King, Cespa stated that theregulates was a delay in getting the paperwork or permit papers finished in time to allow a second well during the current phase 2 exploration period.
Hence they are required to drill one well 3000 meters during Phase 3 of the exploration period which starts in September 2016. Cespa decided to move the second well in phase 2 to the first well in phase 3 if the paperwork is finished.
On Cespa's Web site outlining the JDA or Joint Development Agreement, Cespa claims or states that the first well drilled in block 11A is exploratory in nature.
Which would indicate that they intended to learn alot more about what makes up the Geology of their block rather than just the amount of oil they expect to find in this well
Sneak
Cespa claims that the first well drilled in block 11A is exploratory in nature!!
Please do not let the Facts kick you in the Axx.
Sneak
The first well has no bearing as the second well will be drilled during Phase 3 of the block's PCS.
One well does not make the deal. However Two Wells gathers a lot of interest.
September is just around the corner and the Conversion Notes are still open.
Just My Opinion, I could be wrong.
Sneak
Looking for Phase 3 to start On Time!!!
Just My Opinion and I could be wrong, but I do not think Soooooooooooooo!!
Sneak
No good news until the conversion is done!!
Just My Opinion, I could be wrong, but I don't think so!!
Sneak
Believe as you wish. I am not selling anything, just stating the facts.
Sneak
Sorry, but you will have to do your own research.
Carry on!
Sneak
One has to look at the end game. Stock trades in the .05 to .06 range until September drilling or drilling results from the first well.
That is Cespa's stated plan, "September drilling" that is.
Now time for a glass of Crown Reserve on ice to help pass the time.
Enjoy the wait, all of the above is my opinion and my opinion only, I could be wrong, we'll except for the Crown Reserve that is.
Sneak
If Commercial oil is found, the stock price will reflex the quantity for ERHE, Cespa may announce that they have taken a position in ERHE by buying on the open market.
No vote needed to purchase a position in the company.
Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Sneak
Sorry, but I do not believe that ERHE will be releasing any news until after all the CN have ended.
I look for September drilling news to be released before complete information comes from ERHE about the first well.
If Cespa is eyeing a takeover, they usually buy a sizeable percentage of the company they wish to control or buy.
I feel any sale of ERHE would take place or close in early 2017. That is if ERHE wants to sell.
Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Sneak
Or the first well drilled in block 1 of the JDZ. Nigerian oil official claiming a billion barrels find in block 1 by CVX.
Sneak
Well completion tomorrow. News in 30 days maybe.
I could be wrong.
Sneak
I do not think Cespa will release information about the well. Phase II will be a tell all if Cespa follows through and starts the second well in September 2016. Until then uncertainty rules the board and share pricing.
Interesting event took place late last year with SNP, when SNP bought Addax years earlier, SNP discovered they over paid the Nigerian government billion in fees related to Addax work in Nigeria. SNP brought the overcharge to light, the Nigerian government reached a settlement in the amount of $3.5 billion dollars with SNP. The Nigerian Justice Department approved the settlement, the Nigerian Congress approved the settlement and Johnathan Goodluck the Nigerian President signed the settlement into law just 3 days before leaving Office and non of this made the Nigerian news until after Johnathan Goodluck left Office.
Just food for thought!!
Sneak
Their plan was to become an alternative to any buyout offer that was considered to low.
List part or all of the assets for sale on the Toronto Exchange, thus getting the highest price possible.
Just My Opinion, I could be wrong.
Nothing nefarious about selling to the highest bidder(s).
Sneak
As the British say, "Hang in there mate". Tullow did not announce drilling results until one month after they completed the well.
Look for Cespa to do the same or wait longer.
Just my opinion, I could be wrong!
Sneak
That is the Million dollar question. The liner is set just above the Production Zone. So your guess is a good as mine. Maybe it was "Irrational Exuberance"!
Sneak
The 23rd of June will be 10 weeks. Setting the 7" liner and cementing should be right on schedule to complete the Well by the 23rd of June 2016.
I could be wrong.
Sneak
With Cespa, do not think for one minute that they would announce any details of the well, after all, Cespa is a private company and not held to the same standards that governs a public company. When phase 3 begins that in it self will be a tell all moment in my opinion.
Cespa has it's poker face on!
Just my opinion and I could be wrong.
Sneak
unless Cespa release the news, do not believe what is reported.
Just My Opinion, I could be Wrong!
Sneak
Sorry, but "Dry hole" not in the news report. "Disappointing results" were in the report. No mention of hydrocarbon contact.
Plugging work being done. This oil play went from a 50% chance of success to less than 20%.
Well if the report is true, the ankle biters will be roaring.
JMO
Sneak
Hear ye, Hear ye, I Second that motion!!
Sneak
Cespa stated it would take 10 weeks to drill and complete the Well. ERHE said 8 weeks. Who would you believe.
I choose Cespa.
Sneak
How about "WOR"
Waiting
On
Results.
Sneak
Speaking of Tullow's, they have 952 million shares outstanding and 345 mbls of oil with the stock priced at 229 pence or $3.30 U.S. dollars and lots of debt to payoff.
ERHE on the other hand, has 30.9 million shares outstanding as of 12-31-2015.
If oil is found in the first well as expected (22 mbls) for ERHE, ERHE could be valued at $7.00 to $10.00 a share as ERHE has no debt to pay back.
JMO
Sneak
Some think ERHE management is the Boogeyman, but when the oil starts to flow from 11A they will look at the management team in the following light!!! KC - Kenya Country!!
No one is defending management as that is your Bogeyman!
CESPA controls every aspect of this drilling campaign including the Information, after all, they are the operator of the block.
Sit tight and enjoy the ride.
Sneak
Tullow's stock price has tanken a real hit when oil prices tanked.
They needed to get out good news as soon as possible as they are a public company.
However, CESPA is a private company and if a ERHE partnership or takeover is in the works, I doubt they will announce the FULL results early like Tullow's.
JMO
I could be wrong, but I think not.
Sneak
If the Shoe fits, Wear It!
Sneak
More like $5.00 a share for 50% of the first well.
JMO
Sneak
I would like to believe CESPA has made a hydrocarbon contact and they may have.
I would like to hear the quality of the hydrocarbons, flow rate and the amount of total hydrocarbon contact zone in meters.
I believe this information is 5 to 6 weeks out as they precession the information by a third party.
I could be wrong.
Sneak
ERHE never gives a clear vision of the path going forward.
I'm sorry for the confusion. I should have more precise.
I was putting forth a statement that I think a lawyer like Peter may say. The FOG of Peter (obscurity) continues hang over ERHE.
Sorry for the confusion.
Sneak.
Peter can not issue any updates without first getting CESPA approval.
No hurry at this point. We still will not here anything for about another 4 to 5 weeks.
The only news may be, they have finished drilling, the rig has moved off to the next location and we are elevating the hydrocarbon contacts that were made during this process.
JMO
Sneak
It All Hinges on the well rsults being drilled.
Just like Tullow's well went from 150 mbls recoverable to 750 mbls recoverable.
The findings will raise or lower the amount of estimated recoverable hydrocarbons in the 12 remains targets in block 11A.
There are no guarantees as the oil drilling business is a very risky venture.
JMO
Sneak
He needs to sell and be done with it!!
Peter and Sylvan have 70,000 and 85,000 respectfully. They are parts of NGAR and they need as much cash as possible to acquire hydrocarbon assets.
Anyone can do the math. $10.00 or $100 Plush share. We all know which price they would like to get and it has everything to do with drilling results, it is that plain and simple.
Drywell, stockholders may be Toast, Commercial hydrocarbon success, we are Golden.
It make little difference how we got the money to get this far thru the CN, without that Avenue, ERHE would be toast and finding or not finding oil has nothing to do with the CEO or the CFM.
JMO
Sneak
Jsc, I believe the proper wording from ERHE was "60 days to complete the Well". As Knowski pointed out 60 days to drill the well is a lot different than 60 days to complete the Wellcare.
Check out his post.
It is less than 30 days now to complete the Well!!
Good times may be just around the corner.
Sneak
Oldoil, your calculation leave out Kenya's cut of net oil revenues of 50%. So $50 dollar oil would be about $45.00 gross oil revenue less 50% Kenya's cut leaving $22.50 of production oil revenue left to split 55% Cespa, 35% ERHE and 10% Kenya and without the rate of flow, it is hard to calculate the revenue stream.
However, the oil reserves of say 200 million barrels for ERHE @ $10 a barrel = $2 billion dollars and a buyout could be twice that number.
JMO
Sneak
One never knows, however, $10.00 a barrel is about the standard valuation per barrel of a Commercial Find. Having said that, 22 million barrels first well would value each share at $5 - $7.
If the whole field is proven at 225 million barrels for ERHE, you can do the math. A buyout would most likely double the price of the reserves at $20 a barrel. That number could be slightly lower or higher do to time to reach world markets.
I believe CESPA is are partner or suitor which will all hinges on the quality and size of any hydrocarbons found in this block.
JMO
Sneak
Historically, the larger the find, larger the price per barrel do to longevity!!
Sneak
Kenya pipeline will be fully operational in 2021.
Sneak