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Likely not good unless we get PSPA resolved by Inauguration Day.
Unless you think Parrott and Zandi running the Housing committees are good for us.
Big Day for FNMA in a few hours.
$5 by Friday or sub-$1?
100% Agree. Jr. Preferreds are due their Dividends!
Hard to get excited about $2, even $2.50. FNMA is in the dumps since March and until it regains $3, there's nothing to be excited about.
Don't be fooled by the Traders that are flipping every $0.05-$0.10. They post here frequently and try to entice buyers so they can take their profits.
FNMA continues to be a Gamble and nothing more.
It would have to resolve the NWS and the SPSA to moot Collins.
Christian Herzeca says this is nothing more than standard procedure:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/fnma-and-fmcc-preferreds-in-search-of-the-elusive-10-bagger/msg436450/?PHPSESSID=aa5a01e6e18f55083f463fecedda699d#msg436450
Nope, it's totally unrelated. It only deals with the Rop plaintfiffs and not the Collins plaintiffs.
Sell The Pop! That Gap will get Filled.
Capital Research also increased FNMAS position by 78%.
I don't think we can trust this information unfortunately.
$1.90 Resistance is going to be tough for FNMA to crack.
Shorting FNMA at these prices is the strategy.
I disagree
I'm hearing after Christmas, possibly not until 2021.
We'll see $20 to $30 common so under utility model and $200 to $300 under private model.
Seems to me that SCOTUS is going to examine the entire history of FNMA as part of its deliberations.
Not sure if we want to see the decision either way. There's not much that can stop the avalanche of FNMA sellers.
A SCOTUS loss is Game Over for Commons. Probably best this gets settled, otherwise we're in store for months of Selling.
The selling of FNMA continues tomorrow. We don't need to wait 3 days.
We're paying $100M Legal Fees? We should sue the FHFA!
Agreed. You posted about him for several weeks when he endorsed Commons.
Guess he's wrong now that he's been suggesting Preferreds are the better buy.
There's a very good chance this happens.
That's bad news for Commons then. They need JPS to be worth Par for them to have any value.
Soon the FNMA Facts will be posted for everyone to verify
Ouch! Hope it wasn't a big position. You must've been buying at $3+ and now down 33%.
No bueno amigo
Compare the 5-year chart of Commons to JPS and let me know your thoughts on which one is going up first
It's good for Commons to follow Jr. Preferreds closely. Since if JPS aren't worth Par, then Commons are worthless
FNMA Facts to ponder this weekend.
Jr. Preferreds also have Lamberth. That case has been remanded back to the Judge with clear instructions on what needs to be done.
Of course if you assume Biden wins and we lose at SCOTUS, buying JPS after those events would be the best decision.
Lamberth's case can only help JPS, it offers nothing to Commons.
We'll have more clarity soon. No reason for Jr. Preferreds to panic yet. Election results will be a major indicator.
Commons should've panicked months ago, maybe even years ago, but the Lemmings are always slow.
Exceptional FNMA Facts. The Buffers being built to a level to cover Jr. Preferreds at Par should be telling. Mnuchin is protecting his friend in the event of a Biden win.
As long as Mnuchin writes down the Sr. Preferreds before he leaves office, then Jr. Preferreds are money good since the GSEs have the necessary capital buffers to cover the JPS claims.
Unfortunately, Commons will be sweating for a long time to find out their fate.
How low will FNMA go? Limbo Contest invites were apparently not distributed to all of us Average Joes.
It's also the most overpriced JPS and the most followed. It's not the one to look at when evaluating Jr. Preferreds.
As I said in my previous post, there are multiple Jr. Preferreds that are Green today.
It looks like we're seeing another Rotation from FNMA Commons to Jr. Preferreds
Look beyond and you shall see.
Several of the Jr. Preferreds are Green today. So this seems to mostly be a FNMA Commons problem.
All of the uncertainty regarding the outstanding shares seems to have finally caught up with FNMA.
It's no surprise to anyone that understood the FNMA Facts. But it's a big shock to the FNMA Fantasy crowd
Even at these prices, the risks outweigh the potential return.
Commons continue to be nothing more than a Gamble.
Sell The Pop Confirmed. Every bounce FNMA makes will now be sold unless it definitively closes above $1.90 today.
Hopefully everyone listened to those pesky FNMA Facts over the last few weeks.
Seeing the heavy volume, FNMA is probably heading to the lower end of your range.
FULL BLOWN FNMA TIMBER ALERT. $1.90 just broke.
Cheaper prices incoming!
This seems to be the predicament FNMA is in.
I think $8-10B in earnings is more realistic. I wouldn't assume $12B.
I also wouldn't expect any recovery from the Courts. Any remedy that yields money back is going to result in a Sr. Preferred cramdown, which would be devastating to Commons.
While I don't think MC is going to destroy the GSE's business model, I do recognize this amount of capital hinders Commons' future price potential significantly.
I'm curious to see how much higher than 4% the capital rule ends up at. I've been hearing 5% from the DC Insiders.
I think this is the price the GSEs have to pay for their reckless behavior in the past.
I only posted the relevant part, word for word. We know the capital plan already. FSOC said it's too low and any lower they will declare them SiFi's, resulting in even more capital being required.
So I would assume the capital plan is 4%, or higher.
They want the most ownership in the GSEs. Odds are they'll get what they want since they'll be putting up close to $100B.
When you bring that kind of money to the table, you get what you're asking for or you walk away.
Looks like it was the CFO, not CEO. Quote is the same though.