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Our fundraising is basically shutoff at this point until they go for additional shares. Ken basically sold 100% of the 30 million shares investors approved last March, he must have zero faith in any appreciable news coming soon. I just have to wonder now how low this thing is going to go if they diluted with everything they had... Could they have gotten an early glimpse of NEO data?
I kind of agree, but is it even worth it? This company is barely limping along and the swine running it will continue to operate it as they have for so many years. The time bomb until next dilution is already ticking. NEO delay and the wait for data destroyed this company. At least I could stomach a tanked stock on bad data, but this is too much...
They should shelve HOT until they can prove out NEO. NEO should have its costs mostly covered by Amgen. This whole thing is an utter disaster. I just don't know who or what to believe anymore. They bought very little time for a massive chunk of the company and they're acting like they're going to continue to press forward on HOT. It boggles the mind...
For some reason I find that bonus in his contract reprehensible. I mean, it's his job to raise money, he's making over 500k a year and has a million shares at 1.60. I agree with every man for himself when it comes to negotiating a contract, but the fact that he gets rewarded for doing this should not be beyond reproach, imo.
They absolutely DO NOT currently have funds to go late into next year. This keeps getting repeated - they don't run it until empty. They bought little time with that massive dilution and their current burn rate. I'm curious to hear what Ken has to say on the CC. If he sounds like he's got no clue then I'd say its time to sell and wait as well. Obviously cause I missed the last opportunity to sell out of this insanity that is ADXS. The elusive HOT will still be there...
Haha. Ain't that the truth.
I'll add my spin in that this is the best education I've ever gotten from a stock in my life. Disgusting and these people all work for their own benefit. Being a bag holder sucks..
Ken gets his 150k bonus for dumping 16+ million shares. These people. Let's hear the spin..
To some of the people here that said delaying NEO wasn't really bad news.... WOW. That killed us.
It's not about outright lying. It's about judgment.
The elusive HOT that's supposedly worth more than NEO. I don't know who to trust about this company anymore. There's no way they'd offer shares down here if they were close to a deal.
This doesn't stop anything though, that's the point. We don't get to raise a lot of money down here selling chunks of this company for peanuts. That's the part that makes this whole thing so sickening. We are burning through cash like crazy and are at all time lows. It's not being negative either, it's just reality.
I just wonder if Ken is going to get his $150k bonus for raising cash down here? Probably.
I guess this also answers the question of whether we got any money from Amgen for first dosage...
Yeah - I actually wondered the same thing. At least we know warrants are involved. Lovely
Truly is pathetic, imo. These guys don't seem to have a clue on what's going on. I've never owned a stock as sad as this. Many on this board know how to run a company better than these guys (not talking bullish brigade).
Warrants are toast.
Naw, I had a nagging feeling too. Too much silence from these people for far too long. You nailed it. It's just sad, and reading this board hasn't helped. I knew dilution was inevitable. Still amazing at these levels though.
Proposed Offering. Or you joking? lol
Bravo, Advaxis.
Something was definitely in the air. Pretty disgusting work by these guys. Can't wait to hear the spin...
If Ken is unable to sell HOT (or even AXAL), then put the whole thing on hold and cut costs until we can see NEO data. Re-evaluate starting it back up after that. Done.
HOT will only cost additional funds going forward if ADXS can't secure funding/partner soon. I think he already has something though given the wording in the IND and specificity of construct. Been burned far too many times to trust myself at this point however.
Or just sell the beech... these guys have misjudged just about everything with this company/market to date. Don't take us down this road again.
Great movie. They have hopefully just started the ABC mantra with deals galore. Only then will coffee be brought back into the office. Dilution needs to be removed ASAP and $25 million alone isn't going to do it...
How is 25$ million going to do it? 200+ million raised and here we are. There's no guarantee that NEO data is going to prove anything within that short a time frame. Not saying it won't work, but we have no clue what will be learned that quickly. HOT costs are only going to accelerate too as we continue to develop them. Then where are we?
I'm with Bourbon, we need a good runway given our cash burn to TRULY take dilution off the table. Otherwise, we'll continue to limp along as we have for awhile now. The market is at a prove it level with this company.
4 month burn is more than that. Even with best case of 50 mm/yr that takes it down to 42. The only wildcard is milestone but can't rely on that.
I don't believe there is such a thing as "modest dilution" at these levels. We were trading at 2.50 when we diluted 10 million shares at 2$. We quickly dropped to 1.80 after that and have melted down since.
I'm curious, what proposed price do you think they'd get with an offering today?
This is spot on. Well said. Same here.
Eeeeek. It's eerie how similar this looks. Swap Advaxis in for Rosetta Genomics and you could basically reuse that entire statement as is.
I have to think ADXS has much better assets to work with than ROSG and with HOT discussion hopefully bearing some fruit, we should be ok. Time is approaching though and I don't think the silence makes it any better. IMO something should have already been announced. I'm nervous.
He sounds good.
But man, sweet talk and reality are two different things.
Close a deal, Ken.
Reverse split at this point does worry me. I've already been through one (was for it), not into doing another here. Filing the s3 before any deal does not seem bullish on any level to me. There's gonna be some damage. Glad Ken and the new crew has a new 1.60 base to work from and healthy paychecks. They'll be fine. LTSH...
At these levels I'm reluctant to think it's anything but negative. The 2017 registration was a much different time for ADXS...
Any thoughts on them adding all the additional securities to the shelf including debt, preferred, warrants, units, etc.? I really hope they're not looking to offer preferred shares.. I guess time will tell.
Thanks.
I believe I may understand why Ken needed to file a new shelf registration. The new registration now includes all securities i.e. warrants, preferred, etc. I could be mistaken, but that seems like the most logical reason to me.
Dew, why was this replacement needed in the first place? I thought a shelf registration was good for a couple years or more. Can we glean anything from it? Thanks.
It's just a new narrative being pushed to spin the announcement, sprinkled with a bit of denial. A lot of people here thought AXAL was going for HUGE bucks.
I think Ken made the statement when he did for a couple reasons, none of which are related to strong arming BP:
1. He needed to show that the cost savings are real and tied to something tangible. Saying he's just cutting 24% of the wf without any details would lead to speculation.
2. He's saying to WS that we are now mainly a NEO/HOT play and that our prior candidate (filing included) is now behind us.
I believe it's a fire sale. We shall see though. Selling it with HOT does seem like the best possible outcome.
I never said no one would ever do it.
Again, where's the rational for why the overlord that controls our share price would choose to short warrants as opposed to sell options, or just plain short the stock? All that has the same reward, if not more, with less risk.
I get your evidence for this notion is our share price, which I'd argue is hardly evidence at all for proving the short of 3 million warrants. This warrant theory is a farcical narrative. Short interest is way down too.
Perhaps the same people behind the long short attack were quite confident that they could control the share price in their favor....
Plenty of sharks will take this risk.
Insane. Why would you short a warrant that can be extended without your control (which you've alluded to) and add that risk to the bet?? Especially with a biotech stock like this. Its completely different than options, those have a definitive time frame.
In fact, no one has stated if warrants for this stock can even be shorted. Plausible...? If they're allowed to be shorted, sure, anything in the world is possible, but the likelihood is next to nothing. It's just ridiculous, IMO.
The warrant theory is preposterous. No sane/rational investor would take that risk with the uncertainty of warrants. Makes absolutely zero sense, especially if they can control the price. Just write options or run it up again.
Completely agree, so why not the announcement that its in the pipeline for filing IND?
To me this points more to them shelving AXAL for the time being, just like Ken alluded to on the call. Or fire sale it and bring in HOT cervical at a later date when they're capable (see value) of doing so.
Yes. But its not a secret HOT exists. Who in their right mind wouldn't ask about HOT before they signed off on AXAL?? The only way it makes sense is if they say to a partner, go ahead and buy AXAL and we promise to shelve Cervical HOT for a few years, hence no announcement (still doesn't make sense). Something isn't panning out. IMO.
BINGO!
one scenario could be selling 20Mish shares at somewhere between $1 and $1.50 and netting somewhere between $20M - $30M cash
If AXAL/Cervical is wound-down, Ken should be able to get annual burn-rate down closer to $35M
ADXS would still only have 70M shares outstanding in above scenario
All that said, PSA HOT deal with Merck could come first later this year or early 2019, before any capital raising.
plan may be to raise a modest amount of cash now using a portion of the 30M shares, after some good news is released (Head & Neck IST start.)