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It is it is, not that this is doing anything, but just back in Florida, brought a few more friends to the party today.
Everyone likes an easy long with a great return.
Make more $$ for the grand kids to piss away LOL.
Thats the ticket!
Agreed this and FRAN were the ones in this decades retail onslaught last one in 2009 was PIR that was only one and the most successful recovery I ever had and it didn't RS from .14 to $24 has to be a record I sold my last 23 and change.
Now its back in the dumps but this time I don't hold much hope for it, different time eras styles the island tropical thing just doesn't jive anymore and also recession hit then people were looking for cheap starter furniture.
So much goes into evaluating these, at least for me, all kinds of stuff, and that time recession was a biggie new married couples and kids on their own not spending a lot on furniture and they had a total boss for CEO that came in similar to what FRAN had, thats when the light bulb went on for me in FRAN I was like dejavous I knew I had been to that dance before with a similar date.
Peace out.
$ASNA One other thing people aren't getting Dress barn sales were up 12% this past Q and the cash to the balance sheet rose a lot of this has to do with the stores they closed. Not only did they lose the losses of all those stores going forward which is important as losses will drop, but they gained in revenues but more importantly cash to the balance sheet.
This Q coming cash will rise and losses will fall going forward again as all these stores were closed this Q that is ending. And when the 500 close Dec 31st during the holiday sales period where they will be getting more $$ for the goods during the sell out they will also not be paying for as much advertisement as the pople are already going to be their in droves, ever seen a malls parking lot during the holidays, the only time one understands why they made the SOB's so big. Forest is there if you quit staring at the individual trees.
In this PR click Company Website in this paragraph and count those stores, thay aren't losing money today, costs sut today since last Q report for August 3 and they added to the revenues Dress Barn sales will be up and all that liquidated inventory will boost the cash as it did last Q its all simple if one just thinks rationally for a moment.
""Today, Dressbarn has commenced store closing or inventory clearance event sales at 53 stores that are slated for closure by the end of August. A list of all planned store closures, including those previously announced, can be found on the Company’s website."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dressbarn-wind-down-plan-target-200500271.html
It doesn't take a rocket scientist, just the ability to shut out all the nose of the players, pimps and hustlers.
Peace out.
AVMXY/RECEL too, I practically offered my first born to any who would just buy a piece for a dollar a share.
I am not the baddest stock guru in the world not a stock guru at all actually, just see things others miss, many cannot see the forest for the trees. If i am hard on a stock just for shits and giggle grab piece and put in a coffee ca, shoe box, underneath the mattress wherever.
And if one is the trading type etc, even if you unload when you reach 100-200% profit still keep a little piece, just something for the kids, they bee good this year. Ones i have a hard on for to be honest they go up and they are never going back down again to lows or anywhere in near it.
They don't just move out of the the neighborhood they move states leaving no forwarding address.
Now that I just tooted my own horn like $2 hooker explaining the glorious unknown pleasures that come from me having no teeth, how is everyone doing this fine day.
Happens every day hedges slowing it down a bit, has happens every day for a week and a half.
Will end up, only day ended 1/2 a penny down was Friday with no hold the weekend crowd selling, only fools flip stocks like these. They are trying to be rich while others are headed to being wealthy or adding to their already attained wealth.
I flip stocks every day but not ones such as this or FRAN or AVMXY or MR etc, that's just foolish, flip the junk hold the diamonds.
Was 222 stores avenue closed, sorry bout that 22 would not have been so hot LOL.
Was in a hurry this AM planning trip, wallowing in Atlanta airprt at the moment, layover, but loving the way this stock is trading, have been for a week.
ASNA building great no gaps to back fill on the way up etc, just doing that stair stepping thing perfectly.
Was nice having that no hold over the weekend selling at end of the day Friday and hedges just sat there with a sack open taking them all and the smack the assk and grabbed another 150K @.38 for the close, left almost no sellers for this mornings tree shake those that flipped out found their ticket had been punched.
People are finally getting it, hedges covering because there is no downside anymore only a future of folding paper money, they are banking those unrealized gains, was never personal, just business and they are setting about business and buying ever weak piece of fruit leaves they can shake from the tree.
Peace out, dangerous stock to flip in and out of IMHO.
That's 10's of million s of shares that need buying, 10's with a "T" and millions with an "M"
If you add or start do it on a dip, there are still some weak and some foolish enough to let go and try and play it. TICK TOCK
Peace out.
Forever 21 stores closing at quite a rapid pace which is good to see, one more competitor laving the dance, Charming Charlies closed, Forever 21 closing at a swift pace and Francesca's having closed many stores in over saturated areas where they just had to much of a footprint bodes extremely well for them going forward.
Lower costs in those over saturated areas increases numbers at their remaining stores and less competitors for dollars as the BK exit the stage.
Looking for ward to this holiday season with estimates of 4-5%+ in sales this year, all those dollars and less places to spend them..........2020 baby nothing but blue skies.
Peace out.
Avenues is officially out of the game, all 22 stores closed and the E-commerce intellectual property sold. That will be $400 million (125 mil per Q avg) that is up for grabs.
Lane and Catherine's should be able to grab some of that market share, that is another good thing about companies that go through the once a decade retail shakeout and come out the better for it, they increase revenues in the following year just by the sheer fact there is less competition.
That is the dirty little secret shorts during the retail shake outs like to keep under the carpet with "brick and mortar dying" "internet now after 25 years is looking to take over" both of which prove to be BS every time. It's just a normal cycle that happened well before the internet and will happen again.
The ones that stay around well, they gain from the 7-10K stores that close, that money just doesn't disappear, though they would love for one to think that, its all going to AMZN buy overpriced AMZN stock before the bubble bursts on it, it will hit $10K before it burst, don't miss out, lol.
Good company, always usually has a CC which is not really a thing OTC's are known fro definitely a stock you want to add by bid sitting in between Q's. A some do take profits, not a lot not a lot but if you are patient and put GTC can start add to a position at a nice level stock isn't a crazy one and company does try and do what is best for shareholders and the company always. Its a real thing not some group trying to get everything they can out of it at a detriment to the company.
They want to grow and do buy back shares, they are not diluting type what so ever, nice little investment for not a lot of money one can have in their back pocket so to speak mixed in with their solid big board stocks, patience her is key and a winning strategy IMHO. You can as it rises or bounce sell a little buy back a dip and build up to where your investment is free almost then the wait is virtually painless and your risk is almost nothing as well at that point, which is how I do the very very very few OTC stocks I do invest in.
Peace out.
I get a lot of people that message me thanks for speaking in a way, that they get it, all the hustlers and manipulators etc just make them dizzy at times not knowing which way is up, saying I better sell to protect profits, that's the one that gets me scratching my head, when I see that posted to a board, I just sold a $5 bill for .40 to protect myself?
I told him it was actually the most plain way of explaining I could ever come up with now that the Dress barn leases, Bk etc is past.
How the picture just came opening up in high definition so to speak, its simple, really.
That's why I mainly get into retail when they take it down I find those couple that are just simple, plain as day a 6th grader can add and subtract. Forget all the minutia lets just make it easy get out a knife lets cut this pie and be done with it, then let accountants in so they can take whats left and make it confusing a confusing hot mess, things are so simple til modern day accountant get involved, they lose a dime to save a nickel juggling figures from one paper to another.
Anyway, this is what I wrote him and it is this simple when valuing the company going forward after Dec 31st and if what me I would do it and be left with the diamond and tell everyone to bugger off and go bother someone else, but is IMHO show what is left after the clean out.
It is just a scenario to cut through the crap see whats really there if one could take out the debt, getting rid of some/all etc. what would be left so how much value is/could there be just slicing it up and keeping the best slice. Where is the value, if i sold stuff to take out this debt everyone is crying about what we got for value?
"""Its only time you are waiting on, that's all, and that isn't a long time. Next week 6 weeks from next ER what does it do a week before that it rises so 5 weeks, what if something happens before that?
Lane sale,Justice sale which ever may be the case, until we know we don't know anything but something will be sold the entire world knows that as Bloomberg reported as the company and shareholders know something must go it is the last shoe that needs to drop.
Then is 2 dollar town, your left with Ann Taylor that could sell on its own for 2 billion easy and 49% of Maurice's if you sell whichever is left Lane/Justice just to get it over with and get to even and see what is really there for a value.
What are you left with?
Ann Taylor $2 bil value stand alone by it self can sell it for that but lets say they can only get 1.5 billion 700 million less than they paid 4 years ago just for argument sake.
$300 mill in cash, we know that value $300 million
1.8 Billion dollar value company and 49% of Maurice's, it really after Dress barn is closed and the rest is sold, that easy. And that is reality all the rest is muddle. Facts and math don't lie, math always wins.
It is that simple, they just make it sound convoluted and messy. Its not. Whenever looking at things do some arithmetic for yourself.
$1.4 billion debt how could that be solved?
Selling Lane/Catherine's/Justice simple use the money to pay off all the debt what are you left with Ann Taylor, 49% of Maurice's and $300 million dollars cash. And what if you had to use the $300 million in cash too?
Still left with Ann Taylor that could be sold for $1.5 billion + and 49% of Maurice's that's math and that's a fact.
People saying the stock is worth a dollar or even $2-3 they are crazy, they must be talking to the wall because I don't hear a thing. They need to take that to stupid town because it isn't selling here.
The messy part is over, almost, the deal with landlords is made, now it's just selling everything and locking the doors is left, Maurice's Dress Barn gone.
They just want you to think it is still messy. Its not, don't worry, like I told people with FRAN it isn't that complicated, they just want you to think it is."""
That is the truth and that's what needs to be talked about or just do it. Sell off all the pieces be left with Ann Taylor and Maurice's shares and what are each one of those 190 mil shares worth? You do the math.
Because it is that simple, that's why rich mf'ers buy up companies and sell off the pieces.
1.5 billion to 2 billion 190 mil shares wheres my check.
I Something heard from a friend still trying to dig up what I can but something other than plus may be leaving the Ascena family and some top horses are not being allowed to go on the trip, as the new stalls are already filled.
Shocking but, I can see it and I even made my vote that it was the pony to let out of the barn long ago. Wasn't a good fit IMHO, apples and oranges premium American women's retail institutions and then something else, way out of left field. Seems plausible. I have my own opinions as to how that should work out as one must be integrated with the other 2 pluses don't make a right.
Like a soap opera, this one is sold, no this, no this is happening no this is. Be glad when it is done and over with choose already sell one or the other and move the hell on, IMHO. Will have to see how this plays out, supposedly was surprise to many, only corp supposed to be aware but then again what is secret anymore everyone wanting their 15 minutes.
We just have to see, as in an upcoming episode of "As the worm turns."
This is like a saga that won't end. War and Peace comes to mind, ready for the last page so we can move on.
Disney in control, it will go to hell in a hand basket now. Has been sliding for a year IMO.
They want to throw in some importing of Dem voters.
Couldn't leave everyone half way through although only post once a day have to stay among the others.
Have a great day.
How is that working out for ya?
I never have put much stock in Zacks, JPM et al except for the lady at Stiefel have it far north of here. The company will literally have more in earnings going forward this year that the SP is currently at. Book value $27 in change assets up the wazoo, 8 straight estimate beats they do one thing extremely well beat the numbers time and time again.
One of the problems with the company it is hard to find any relevant info on it, on fintel for example, it's not even there has some Mindray company on MR ticker, heck wasn't til a couple months ago that it wasn't the same on Ihub.
JPM did recent report on NG companies and these were their views on MR
North America Equity Research
03 October 2019
We expect NGL prices to dial-in at 27% of WTI at the low-end of the company’s guidance range of 27% to 33% of WTI in 3Q19 due to weak NGL prices in the quarter.
Expect 3Q19 production at the high end of guidance: We are modeling 3Q19 production of 614.7 MMcfe/d, 0.8% above the Street estimate of 609.6 MMcfe/d and at the high-end of the 600 to 615 MMcfe/d guidance range driven by reductions in cycle times and improved well performance.
Operations update: MR is currently running 1 rig and 1 completion crew. In 3Q19, we model 16 gross and 13.8 net TILs with 2/3rds of completion activity in the liquids rich Marcellus and Utica areas and 1/3rd of its activity concentrated in the dry gas region. We are modeling 3Q19 capex of $80 MM, 8.3% below consensus at $92 MM.
2020 production and capex expectations: We are modeling 2020 production at 600.4 MMcf/d, 0.3% below the Street production estimate of 602.4 MMcf/d. This would equate to 9.8% growth vs. 2019 production of 546.8 MMcf/d. We assume 1.5 average drilling rigs in 2020, 28 TILs, and $275 MM of capex, which is 13.3% above the Street. We expected the 2020 program to be more focused on liquids rich drilling opportunities (~65% of activity concentrated in Marcellus and Utica condensate area and 35% of activity in dry gas areas).
Long-term modeling assumptions: We are assuming flat activity, with ~1.6 average drilling rigs and 30 TILs at average capex of $288 MM per annum. This supports low-single digit production growth from 2021 through 2025. In 2021, we model 615.3 MMcf/d of production, which grows to 686.5 MMcf/d of production in 2025.
Borrowing base update: On September 23, MR announced a 25% increase in its borrowing base to $500 MM from a previous base of $400 MM and an expansion of its lending group from 13 to 15 members. As a result, MR’s pro-forma liquidity increased by $100 MM to $353 MM at the end of 2Q19.
MR is trading at a discount to our PDP Valuation: At current strip prices, we value MR’s PDP PV-10 at $959 MM, which after deducting net debt as of June
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MXXXXXX CXXXXl at RXXXXXXE CAPITAL, L.P..
Axxx Jxxxxx
(1-212) 622-xxxx axxxxxxx@jpmchase.com
North America Equity Research
03 October 2019
2019, results in a valuation of $341 MM or $9.53 per share, which is significantly above the current trading levels. We estimate YE18 PDP reserves of 1.07 Tcfe, including 8.3 MMBo of oil, 30.7 MMBo of NGLs and 835.8 Bcfe of gas reserves.
Estimate revision: We are updating our MR model to incorporate updated company guidance, long-term modeling through 2025 and 3Q19 commodity prices. Our 2019/2020 EPS estimates move to $2.26/$1.93 from $1.76/$1.06. Our 2019/2020 CFPS estimates move to $7.07/$7.48 from $7.12/$7.55. Our model is based on 2019/2020 oil and gas prices of $57.37/$54.52 per bbl and $2.72/$2.54 per Mcf vs. our prior commodity price assumption of $56.82/$54.80 per bbl and $2.60/$2.48 per Mcf.
MR operations are focused in the Utica and Marcellus, with core acreage in the dry gas and liquids rich windows. MR shares have significant leverage to an improvement in commodity prices (i.e., natural gas), but we expect the stock to be range-bound given weak natural gas prices that will limit the potential of MR to drive significant value creation through the drillbit. As compared to its Appalachian peers, MR screens at the middle of the pack on production costs, cash margins, leverage ratios and gas break-even prices. Hence, we believe a Neutral rating is justified.
Valuation
Natural gas stocks have been one of the weakest segments of the broader market over the past five-years as runaway supply growth from shale productivity gains and associated gas growth has overwhelmed demand, resulting in severe margin compression. Equity values have also been negatively impacted by the shift from asset based measures such as NAV toward cash flow and FCF based metrics. We expect supply headwinds to persist through 2020 for gas and liquids, although we do anticipate balances to improve in 2H20 as producers as a whole begin to moderate activity levels
Using our NAV methodology, we calculate a net asset value of around $15 per share for MR. At current levels, the shares are trading at a substantial discount to NAV, but NAV based valuation metrics appear no longer appear to be the appropriate approach given the structural oversupply in the gas market. We do not have a Dec-20 price target on MR stock.
Risks to Rating
All E&P companies face the same general risks, including commodity price volatility, infrastructure constraints, oilfield service cost inflation upon accelerating activity, and unexpected geologic irregularities. Furthermore, type curves and proved reserve/resource potential remain underpinned by numerous assumptions subject to uncertainty that can materially change.
An unexpected rise in natural gas price could drive the stock above our price target given the company’s leverage to higher natural gas prices.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MXXXXXX CXXXXl at RXXXXXXE CAPITAL, L.P..
Axxx Jxxxxx
(1-212) 622-xxxx axxxxxxx@jpmchase.com
North America Equity Research
03 October 2019
Wider-than-expected basis differentials for MR.
If the company does not achieve the growth rates and costs that investors expect
and to which the company has guided, the stock could underperform.
Upside could come in the form of an improved commodity price outlook that drives acceleration in activity and increases NAV.
MR’s production and activity are concentrated in the Utica and Marcellus Shales in eastern Ohio, West Virginia, and NEPA. Winter weather, flooding, or issues with infrastructure could negatively impact the company’s operations and cause the stock to underperform.
These insider buys today don't hurt a bit.
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director ZORICH ROBERT L:
Bought 5311 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
fla
Oct 10th, 5:06 pm
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director Burroughs Mark E JR:
Bought 6728 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
fla
Oct 10th, 5:06 pm
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director PHILLIPS D MARTIN:
Bought 5311 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
fla
Oct 10th, 5:05 pm
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director Swanson Douglas E Jr:
Bought 5311 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
Peace out.
Last minute wasn't a seller to be had. I am not best chart guy in the world thankfully TOS has great gadgets. If this thing does not look like the beginning of a runaway freight train, nothing does, its like just getting ready to go into second gear, there are 3 after that.
Back to $1+ town where it belongs before BK BS and DB lease BS sent it to the basement, hedges locking in unrealized gains IMHO been saying it since ER, no more downside time the them to get paid.
Peace out.
First time hitting .50 in forever and still not a peep.
It will continue to climb after ER and now 10K with no hidden surprises, 40 million shares short of unrealized gains, every penny rise big fellas are losing more than a little profit. IMHO as there is no downside only up.
My buddy in CA the money manager emailed me, he had dates mixed up etc. It is sooner we will know one way or another if company got the shares via 10K or PR hits that deal done, all know my opinions on the screwy goings on no 10K on ER release for first time ever, and it has to have those shares in it, you all know my previous posts. But anyway............
I miscalculated on the date for 10K because I assumed their year-end was August 24, but it's August 3. Accelerated filers, which is the box they checked on their last 10q requires filing within 75 days from year-end, so that would be next Thursday, the 17th - sooner than I thought.
Nice, I think much covering going on now too, we don't have those gap downs when flippers jump out, would love to know for certain that the 500K block bid sitters that been buying those are large hedges covering that would be a great sign, I think it is them lovking in gains, but, that's a guess, but it is being bought up on bid as we rise.
That's a certainty you can watch it on level two once today 200K got thrown our by a larger flipper and they stock went up, good sign. I love the slow steady climb people from the ReCell on and Francesca's know I do, just better for the stock building back up than the chaotic swings, then when it goes up it stays up.
Just like climbing a nice hill as it heads into the mountains.
Peace out.
What many don't understand either is 9% if the shares come out of OS many things change, % held by institutions/funds goes up, % held by insiders goes up, market cap will be adjusted from that day into the future as share will be more valuable by 9%, EPS from that day goes up, a whole lot changes the % of the company shares you own goes up everything goes up. People playing with fire flipping/shorting this thing at this stage of the game.
Its those shares, that is key and no 10K release day if ER not even included in ER as the total share count HAS to be included for the date released how many that day and has been for years and 10K for years has been released same day as CC and ER
FWIW
Okay I have to put all this here as I started this out with you guys I will finish in as bringing whatever we dig up and our opinions that are arrived at although not through concrete it is thins this and this, but, just some obvious things, anyone that has any input to the contrary lumber up to the bar and laid it out.
========================================================================
Daily does of Stock Porn
Okay just member this is first what I wrote this morning and put together to lay all out, in a rational manner. Then it goes into two email replies I got from a friend in CA who is in the money manager game etc.
Got into this thing with ya not going to leave half way through but after the story is revealed (I am out) by all those involved, company, GGC, lenders etc because something is going on it is painfully obvious through leaked rumors by lenders side no doubt to Post/Bloomberg, the sale of 17.5 million shares "ope market" which is a term used in describing these type sales used in sales, mergers etc, the late night PR informing of a ER a week and a half later, the following Monday the 13D hitting SEC 2 days after the transaction as it should be above board.
The CEO in CC being ambiguous to certain things he was discussing ie sale of Lanes, paying some debt early etc. and a very awkward moment when GS analyst tried to get more detailed about the possible early payment of debt or buying it off the open market there being a slight pause and Carrie jumping in to answer the question and they pretty much said to a person we are working on it, we will sort it out, it is being sorted out.
First and foremost the leaks which are ongoing have been ongoing and seem to be coming to a head/close. The leaks first to the post was Wall Street negotiation 101. Put the other sides feet to the fire in the public forum and get their shareholders speculating about anything but something positive, the endless media retells will sort that, then the Bloomberg leak which comes after an PR of the ER and 10K issuance is almost over a week late, finally getting an early evening release that it will be the following Thursday a week and a half later? Trying to wrap things up, want to avoid questions about 17.5 mil share transaction that will hit a week later so have it 3 days after that, let the dust settle? Which by the way after the 13D was released did one tute etc or market maker try to take the stock down, I mean it was for .17 a share, not the stock went up? Then have a CC and not say boo about it.
Then GGC why would they do that? They wouldn't unless it was part of something,everyone and their brother knows now and GGC certainly did then, that BK etc was never happening. They don't take a hit like that even through one of their shell holding companies out of the Cayman Islands unless it is part of a deal a big deal, to A) get the tax break under this one shell, give the buyer a deal on the other end. B) Get in someway somehow a discount on what you are buying to still get an offset on your share $$ loss which was huge, and the one you are doing a deal also makes out reporting a deal done with less cash but sorting out a large problem SP easiest way to sort out a SP problem take almost 9% of the float out of the picture, done period. Each gets something. The cancelling of share deals with all employees and coming out with new plan and warrant plan everyone file your new Form-4.
CC day ambiguous talking around certain things, just saying we are at it, and it is going to be good and is good for all etc. And something which blows my mind, not that they 17.5 mil shares get sold at a discount and stock goes up didn't as well, but, the 10K wasn't released this has never happened. Always has been day of, I checked, now ER was week and a half late with the extra time don't tell me it still needed some kinks worked out, unless all the kinks aren't ready, note that one down, will come in handy later in our story. There is no 13G filed by the buyer of the shares this can only happen, only if it is the company that buys them and the company already has in place a share buyback program. Now one reason this is also interesting the entire shares as part of the deal is due to the terms of the loan. Except in certain cases/instances/clauses/lawyer double talk they have to use the asset sale $$ to pay back debt to the lenders.
I believe as do those I mentioned going through all this with, that that sticking point but one the company was obviously right as they won the argument evidently is why the story was leaked to the post, that $200 million from Maurice's company said it is ours to use, lenders said no its ours that's the deal in the contract, lender has flunky (Harvard,Yale flunky, but fresh out of Uni. all flunkies) leak Post report, Wall Street negotiation tactics 101, put the other guys feet to the fire, media questions, shareholder questions stock pressure, everuone else picks up story reprints, etc it is effecting, sent the stock under a buck and eventfully to the .20's for a minute. But I say the company won that arfument as they kept the money AND they reiterated that fact in the CC and stated I might add that it followed stipulations that the money HAD to go back into operations
(not capex operations only take care of other issues pressing that will alleviate the companies position to operate successfully and profitably going forward. As in saying if you don't give it to us, you make damn sure you use it to put out some fire so going forward you can pay us when the time comes. As they don't owe a nickel til 2020 and the bulk 2023 all this BS over debt 3 years from now is BS the next leaked story to Bloomberg with the reiteration that debt should be paid down with the money if the sale goes through is obvious they are saying in the public, okay you got that $200 mil to use to take care of closing shops etc and be ready to go forward profitable and healthy, but, this next go round we will have out hands out you can bet that shit. Now I will post an exchange with the financial/money manager I have been going around this with. Remember all that has been pointed out it becomes clearer as you put the two together, hint especially the 10K thing and why.
The more I put all the pieces together, the more I am convinced they are negotiating with the lenders. It appears that the Term Loan does have a condition where if they sell an asset, they need to use the proceeds to pay down debt (there is one sort of exception which they probably used for the Maurices money, since they claim they are in full compliance.
But now my guess is that they are on the verge of closing a few more deals (Lane.GGC, dressbarn ip) and will have perhaps another $500 million in cash, which normally they would need to use to pay down debt. But my guess is that they are saying to the lenders, we need some give and take, such as keeping some extra cash for operations, a discount for paying off early, perhaps an extension of the due date, and maybe an interest rate reduction, maybe offering some warrants. They used the term "optimize capital structure" five times on the call (the previous call was zero times) which to me means debt is involved. Also these new directors they added seem like debt renegotiation pitbulls. Also, recall the rumors that lenders hired Greenhill and also Milbank, so I'm sure they are all in a room thrashing it out.
I hope they also buy back some debt and stock in the open market, but we'll have to see.
In any event, I think the outcome will be good for us. Like Carrie said on the call, they are being very thoughtful about it.
That's my take.
Here's some of the excerpts from the Loan doc. Pain in the ass to understand though.
“Prepayment Event” means:
(a) any Asset Sale, including any sale or issuance to a Person other than the Parent Borrower or any Restricted Subsidiary of Equity Interests in any Subsidiary, other than (i) dispositions described in clauses (a) through (f) of Section 6.05 and (ii) other dispositions resulting in aggregate Net Proceeds not exceeding $25,000,000 for any individual transactions or series of related transactions;
(b) any casualty or other insured damage to, or any taking under power of eminent domain or by condemnation or similar proceeding of, any asset of the Parent Borrower or any Restricted Subsidiary resulting in aggregate Net Proceeds exceeding $25,000,000; or
(c) the incurrence by the Parent Borrower or any Restricted Subsidiary of any Indebtedness, other than any Indebtedness permitted to be incurred by Section 6.01 other than Refinancing Term Loans and Refinancing Debt Securities.
“Proceeds Collateral Account” means a Deposit Account in which the Net Proceeds of Term Priority Collateral in respect of any Prepayment Event described in clause (a) or (b) of the definition of the term “Prepayment Event” are deposited by the Parent Borrower or any Restricted Subsidiary to be held pending release as contemplated by Section 2.09(b) for reinvestment or prepayment, and which has no other funds contained therein (other than interest on any such proceeds) and is subject to a Control Agreement in favor of the Administrative Agent.
SECTION 2.09. Prepayment of Loans.
(a) The Borrowers shall have the right at any time and from time to time to prepay any Borrowing in whole or in part, subject to the requirements of this Section.
(b) In the event and on each occasion that any Net Proceeds are received by or on behalf of the Parent Borrower or any Restricted Subsidiary in respect of any Prepayment Event, the Borrowers shall, on the day such Net Proceeds are received (or, in the case of a Prepayment Event described in clause (a) or (b) of the definition of the term “Prepayment Event,” within five Business Days after such Net Proceeds are received), prepay Borrowings in an amount equal to 100% of such Net Proceeds; provided that, in the case of any event described in clause (a) or (b) of the definition of the term “Prepayment Event,” if the Parent Borrower shall
(i) prior to the date of the required prepayment, deliver to the Administrative Agent a certificate of a Financial Officer of the Parent Borrower to the effect that the Borrowers intend to cause the Net Proceeds from such event (or a portion thereof specified in such certificate) to be applied or to enter into an agreement to cause such Net Proceeds to be applied within 365 days after receipt of such Net Proceeds to acquire real property, equipment or other tangible assets to be used in the business of the Parent Borrower or the Restricted Subsidiaries, or to consummate any Permitted Acquisition (or any other acquisition of all or substantially all the assets of (or all or substantially all the assets constituting a business unit, division, product line or line of business of) any Person) permitted hereunder, or, in the case of any event described in clause (b) of the definition of the term “Prepayment Event”, to restore the asset affected by such event, and certifying that no Event of Default has occurred and is continuing, and
(ii) in the case of a sale of Term Priority Collateral, deposit all such Net Proceeds in a Proceeds Collateral Account pending such application, then no prepayment shall be required pursuant to this paragraph in respect of the Net Proceeds from such event (or the portion of such Net Proceeds specified in such certificate, if applicable) except to the extent of any such Net Proceeds that have not been so applied by the end of such 365-day period (or within a period of 180 days thereafter if by the end of such initial 365-day period the Parent Borrower or one or more Restricted Subsidiaries shall have entered into an agreement with a third party to acquire such real property, equipment or other tangible assets, or to consummate such Permitted Acquisition or other acquisition, with such Net Proceeds), at which time a prepayment shall be required in an amount equal to the Net Proceeds that have not been so applied (and no prepayment shall be required to the extent the aggregate amount of such Net Proceeds that are not reinvested in accordance with this Section does not exceed $25,000,000 in any fiscal year).
It seems like last year they reported earnings on Sep 24 and also filed the 10K on the same day. If you look at any 10K, on the first page they always show at the bottom the number of shares outstanding, and it is usually up to the date of publication. Last year for ASNA they showed it up to Sep 20 (Thursday) and filed on Monday 24th. Besides that, it's normally always reported as a subsequent event in the 10K. So I think one way or another if they bought the share back, the 10K will show it.
Will be interesting to see the short interest tomorrow.
Yeah, agree it would be nice to be a fly on the wall. That's what makes these situations interesting; it's like a bit of a detective puzzle. There are still a few unknowns but overall I can't see any big obstacles, and the company has been pretty good at communicating honestly in my opinion. I think they are still working through the dressbarn landlord holdouts as well.
From the lender's point of view, they want to get some money back and reduce risk, but it's also in their interest to see the company thrive, so they also want to make sure that the company is left with enough cash so that they don't run into cash flow problems. I visualize a situation at the moment where ASNA has a few deals in escrow ready to close, but before they close them, want to extract some concessions from the lenders; for example "we have deals for Lane, Catherines and dressbarn ip which are ready to go, but if we have to hand over all the proceeds to you (lender) then maybe we won't sell them" Lender will likely say "no, please sell them and we'll help you with some debt restructuring". I see something like - pay lender $600 million for $700 million debt reduction; ASNA keeps $200 million in cash, remaining debt maturity extended by 2 years and interest rate reduced by 1% -
ust a guess, but something like that hopefully. Then hopefully, on the side, they also buy back some debt and equity in the open market. The good news is that even if we get zero concessions from the lender, we are still in fine shape; lender concessions are just a bonus in my opinion and we will get something. This new director who is also on the board of Frontier seems like the kind of guy you want in your corner. It's obvious to me that the NY Post has an informant among the lenders somewhere; Bloomberg seemed to have the inside track on the Plus sale.
The more I put all the pieces together, the more I am convinced they are negotiating with the lenders. It appears that the Term Loan does have a condition where if they sell an asset, they need to use the proceeds to pay down debt (there is one sort of exception which they probably used for the Maurices money, since they reiterated they are in full compliance.
There is a dance going on, maybe even a mosh pit at times, and I am not invited which I am put off by, why? I'm a nice guy, I don't dance but I do a mean wall flower. Well my buddies and I are peaking in the window a bit and trying to figure out what we can using common sense, 10K that is a key with the share as look at last years and before had "shares up to and including that date" They haven't said or talked about them because they cannot talk about them, IMHO plain and simple, they are part for something bigger and more complicated and things that are involved in such matters are not to be discussed.
Can you just imagine the questions that would be asked if the 10K was released as usually and that share count showed 17.5 million more shares? JMHO but it is looking at things with 20/20 vision.
Peace out.
$ASNA Company owns those shares, don't have to even wait til Thursday no one else filed, just had it confirmed buyer had to file for the 17.5 million shares within 10 days starting with the next calendar day after the sale, not business day etc, I was just being safe now I know it was only 10 days which was Monday the 7th, no filing, none, company owns them at this point period. From a securities professional. Say what you will be you better back it up with something other than endless diatribe. The rules are the rules, the law is the law, period. Go to SEC website and prove different or keep quiet simple. That is almost 9% OS? That will have to be on 10K no? This has nagged at me from the get go, I have spoken to everyone I can think of accountant. lawyer investment professional. Someone come up with something? There is a link to SEC there start searching, because I have and so have others.
I been trying to disprove the obvious for a week and a half, if I am wrong some smart cat on here has to know, if so point me in the right direction.
I am open minded on this, I really want another explanation how a guy sells almost 9% of a companies shares and no one reports them, only the company doesn't have to.
I cannot believe almost 2 weeks and no one has come up with another explanation.
Peace out.
This has long been a no brainer, unfortunately building a free position is hard to do now, but, IMHO it has a ways to go. They played this thing like a ping pong ball for years, many of us took advantage, glad I did.
Peace out.
sman I look at that in many ways and it could be 1-2 months could within a month could be in two weeks, but agree within 2 months its folding money, end of story I think we all agree is is headed from the front pocket to the wallet.
Many things could happen but the last is a certainty and the entire market saw the last one, and for many especially the ones that have no idea about impairments/write down which I know very little but know its not folding money that's being lost, that I know.
But with possibility for some things and an almost certainty of others it is going to go back to folding money and by Dec if not before.
Company buying shares
Land Bryant/Catherine's sale
Holiday sales period approaching retail always get better media then govt. numbers etc People shopping spending money in general sentiment on negative leanings toward retail will wain.
Lastly and this is the certainty.
With just closing 45 Dress barns and 35 under performing stores and selling off their over sized inventory they knocked revenues out of the park and at the same time lost 75 money losing stores going forward, yes hurt markings a bit but the savings going forward think about it, you lose 75 $$ losing stores and their costs, rent, labor, electric etc etc, you lose revenue but you lose the most important losses and losses from 75 losing stores is a lot of $$ going forward. They also sold a lot of old inventory build up which they didn't make as much money on hurting margins but turned a lot of dead stock into green folding money. Short term pain, long term gain. Higher revenues while losing a lot of money is not a good thing, better a 3.5 billion dollar revenue company than a 5.5 billion dollar revenue company losing wads of cash.
Many were like they lost $420 million then how did pay off their credit revolver and increase cash by 28 million? Because the losses aren't paper money this explains it better than I could.............
Net loss and Loss per diluted share
The Company reported a Net loss from continuing operations of $420 million, or $2.12 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2019, compared to Net income from continuing operations of $16 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, in the year-ago period. """"Excluding the non-cash impairment charges and other items as detailed in Note 2, the net loss from continuing operations for the quarter would have been $25 million, or $0.13 per share."""
This Q they are closing 75-100 Dress barns, margins will be down a bit again and will have those dumb ass loss of future revenue etc etc write downs but revenues will be up no doubt IMHO and cash will increase, inventory turned into cash they lose money but they increase cash at the same time. And they will lose less money than they would because they won't have the losses from the 75 losing stores they closed the previous quarter. Every closed losing store is positive going forward the media fails to point that out, among other things.
And then going into Q2 all the Dress barns 500 or there about will be closing and because of the period they are closing them the $$ they get closing those will be higher, less advertising and higher prices because the sales will not have to be so deep and the advertising so prolific as they are already coming ready to buy. 500 stores that is a lot of losses going forward that end and there is a lot of inventory that must be turn into cash as it has to go. That and it being the holiday season in general where all the stores do their best they will start 2020 righteous, and people buy stock for tomorrow, next week, next month so IMHO without a shadow of a doubt December it will be folding again.
But north of a dollar I may be alone in this thinking, I doubt I am but I see north of a dollar for good by end of October if not sooner.
But yeah December marks a turning of the page big losses will disappear from 500 stores and the increase in cash will be substantial from that and other stores because of the season, $2 easy peasy Japanesey.
JMHO
That would never happen in that world with that deal, IMHO. Blocks aren't sold like that especially for that type of seller and never at a loss, and a discount without getting something in return, there is a deal somewhere there, either with Ascena that is yet hammered out or someone else, another private equity firm he was using the shares in lieu of cash to make the deal for what they were selling and at the same time get a huge tax loss at the same time, not when the company was showing it was on the way back, that just doesn't happen.
If he were to want to just sell them, which I cannot fathom why, he would have gotten a desk to sell them over two or three days on the open market similar to a new MM coming into an OTC stock selling dilution shares.
He didn't just wake up when things were looking good and headed to out of the darkness for a 40% discount of the market price. And if that were so like I said the stock in the market would have reacted negatively it didn't it did the opposite.
Also if just to sell them for $3 million why not sell them to the company who he had a working relationship with for 4 years? Could have gotten 3-4X that now that the company has the cash and passed the liquidity threshold to be able to buy shares.
IMHO.
Well I haven't any idea how to take that, good or bad. Rhetoric is the word you were meaning and that there is one of the other reasons why I am going a different route in the future.
If meant that I post what I honestly do feel what I post and it just rolls out your right. I know I speak over top of myself if that is even possible, get things backwards, in the wrong order and many times incoherent so much so I have a hard time editing myself LOL, thanks. If not thanks too, but I am not trying to sell a anything but thanks anyway.
Trust me I am not trying to sell anything, there are certain people on here that know for a fact I am not and do not have to, people here do not know me they only think they do. My family thinks i am insane, but the only look at it in a $$ way not in what one is doing to help people who never post a word and if all I can do is keep people strong as I did through AVMXY FRAN etc etc, I will keep right on doing it. Gonna switch it up though after this stock it all goes private message board sick and tired of dealing with the nonsense.
People have to have a place to go to just talk with other investors without all the noise and daily, weekly chart talk that means nothing to a long term investor. having to listen to all the negatvity from those trying to cause an action.
You could be right and they thought a raise or RS would happen. If the landlord deal did not come through, it was sure as shit a lost cause, but, for to many other reasons it had to.
Once you thought about it, clear headed using an unbiased real world mind, they both needed to sort that out. End of story when all the bruhaha is done and over and the media shuts the #$%^&* up as they should. They both needed it the landlords and Ascena.
I wasn't always for ASNA I had a twitter friend I chatted with a lot a younger fellow from Providence RI who couldn't stay away fro the trading thing,and finally crapped out. Back doing the 9-5 thing.
But anyway he followed for a while, made money on a lot of the stocks I tweeted my "catalyst on deck, catch a piece on the dip, thank me later" LOL but he never once bought a single share of Recell, or FRAN but he tried to push ASNA on me when it was $1 and change and I was like that's is a nightmare, to much debt blah blah, as I was just reading the media, had just scanned the filings, but really looking at it I saw the next Geno's remember that fast food place, that was Dress Barn to me, its time had passed, should have been closed years ago, no one bought clothes anymore except in the inner city African American communities and the Southern and Midwestern communities where church in all three is still a very important thing and women still dress like ladies from time to time.
Either should have been closed or shrunk over the last 5-7 years as leases came to term in areas other than those mentioned. And I also saw a corporation that was to big. The cost of having so many different tribes in the tee pee is immense, the corporate expense of all those layers this one dealing this one that reports to this one that goes to this meeting where the head of that meeting reports to the other meeting blah blah, and a multitude of CEO's and why list them you get it.
Now hedges etc have to get out of a sticky situation, because its coming, and sooner rather than later, IMHO, Much sooner.
Yeah, high 50's here, but no sun and a breeze a chilly one. Florida calling, its that time.
Thanks, but I really should stop and proofread prior to posting, its just I get on a roll with my hen pecking and it just flows out.
I was having a discussion with someone and they said what they thought that ASNA would be better off buying some of their long term debt off the market because it is at discount and they are becoming cash flow positive at the moment with an increasing cash position it would be the smarter move going forward. The market would like it.
Then I mentioned the stock buy back as well to someone else and they thought I was wrong as well that buying back debt debt with $200 million to drop the long term debt down to 1 billion or under.
I totally disagree, they already paid in advance 2 years of interest payments so that before heading into this plan of closing Dress Barns and selling Maurice's and closing under performing stores so that it can be profitable and leaner starting Jan 2020 the debt issue would not be an issue.
Well the market/media still made it a big deal, I think it would be the stupidest thing in the world to buy any of that debt at the moment before sorting out the share price issue.
Over the years I have been in multiple companies with the same issue, they all took different actions. One bought debt only the minute they started building cash and operating on a positive cash flow basis they would buy debt off the market when they had an increase in cash of 200-300 million, never buying any stock. Every time it was PRed that they had bought debt the stock would run and then settle back, higher than before but not deserving of what they did.
It happened multiple times till they had almost all their debt paid back and in the end refinanced it and all was well and the stock returned to normal levels with a slight 10% downward adjustment.
One did both they like Ascena had a stock repurchase plan and they just after the quarter ended bought debt back with the excess cash they had built up the two previous quarters. The stock went up and continued to rise into earnings.
Well when the 10Q was released it showed they had also bought their stock under .50 throughout that quarter the stock shot to new highs and never came back. I was a new shareholder buying the bottom as I do, knowing it would come back was ecstatic I made well over what I had anticipated and slowly sold the position over the next three years.
You know who was over the moon happy, the poor guys that had been stuck in from before the problems and loaded the bottom. to bring their CB down. The company had bought 16.5% of the OS shares back, they could have bought another 21.6 million of debt back, but decided to buy stock back as well as they saw an opportunity.
There are many avenues, but, as in the company that just kept buying debt to keep the price up, which the shorts ran back down every time it was like being on a roller coaster. That was one of the only long plays I actively traded a part of my sack before it was at a double/triple before I started selling a little, I didn't keep the money I just bought more every time they pushed it down with the profits, compounding the money.
To me I think the two fellows that disagree with me are a bit naive or maybe have not been or seen a similar situation and seen both methods used, myself always searching for the orphan that will become healthy again have.
It is painfully obvious laying out huge sums before it is due, in this case 3 years from now to try and help a stock go up to give the market confidence doesn't work.
Their careful planning and thoughtful thinking before they went into the resizing of the business obviously scored them no points in the market, it did with holders of the stock that they were being prudent, but not hedge funds and short sellers and the media.
Why throw even more money you don't have to for years down the road or even the next years interest payments (2021) it will do not good, what will is a phone call saying I need those shares back. Or short sellers in the market not being able to find shares to short the stock.
No debt payments for a year long term debt 3 years from now, increasing cash position, increasing cash flow from operations, cutting costs in a major way so that Jan 2020 out its a whole new game, "Papa's got a brand new bag" as it were.
Buy $10-12 million in stock back or throw $100's of millions to the bankers that you don't have to, and didn't get anything but bad press and a stock that got ungraciously crucified by short sellers. I think anyone with half an ounce of sense would pick the former as the latter has already been tried and they spit in your face, well tell the market the shares aren't any good we will just buy them back for nothing, have a nice day.
Like I said I have seen it both ways, they both worked, the first was more frustrating as it was like being on a roller coaster. And the company operated under the gun constantly.
Because when they have you down nothing you can do is good enough, there is always something else. First it was To many heads under the umbrella okay, sell Maurice's get $200 million and get some room under the umbrella.
Popped then they sent it down again, no leases with Dress barn big problem may go bankrupt as it will eat up the Maurice's $200 and the million you have and the business isn't generating any cash.
Okay sort out the Dress barn leases and start closing others cutting costs and liquidating other under performers, check did that, oh but now you are going to burn through cash still bankruptcy issue, okay they cut capex last quarter and going forward and they are now generating cash from operations which will grow Q o Q as less losing stores every quarter from closed under performers and closed Dress Barns (75 total 45 DB) with the following quarter 75-100 DB closing further cutting costs going forward increasing cash from operations etc. No that still not good enough. Now, your debt is selling at a discount, its not owed for 3 years but that doesn't matter.
It will never end, its a case of they will always have an issue they can pump and spin the the media, one thing stops them, and solves your stock price issue using $10-12 or even $15 million to buy back a ton of shares as they are selling due to an extremely high short interest for 1/8 their book value. Then and only then would I when they have extra cash buy any debt back.
Everyone can have their own opinion, and I have seen it work both ways, the paying debt early worked as it did the last time they threw $200 million at the bankers, up and stable for a time, then on will come the negative stories in the media and a ton of negative press they work hand in hand.
Spend some pocket change to make the float and OS shrink drastically and for good, then buy debt back.
I personally as everyone knows think that is what/is happening as they have to solve the share price issue and that can only be done buy buying the stock off the market and forcing large hedges to get off the stock by causing a massive squeeze, buying long term debt not owed for three years,? No. Throwing another $200 million at the bankers will do zero long term. But we shall see, I think it would be foolish to buy debt back before buying shares back, throwing money at bankers they already know doesn't work.
I want them buying shares even before a Lane Bryant sale which is still in the works, or whatever else happens, trust me anyone holding this stock wants them to use even 2-3 million to buy 10 million shares of the float back, preferable 20 mil share though. Stock will pop and run with Lane sale, its a big deal lose a loser in Catherine's and gain 500-600 million, but do that after you have quietly bough up stock now that is a runaway train.
Been there, rode the ride its all they said it would be, and more.
And that is my opinion.
Peace out.
Has to be cold where you are today Shenandoah Valley is chilly has me thinking of that Florida thing more and more every day, gonna have to do the goose thing soon.
I haven't a care in the world about the filings for the new Stock based comp plan and option plan it is in every single Fortune 500 company there is bar none. My one and only question about them was really about the "dark period" thing as I saw it on another place, figured it was hustler trader talk but wanted to see if anyone knew.
This is something all companies have, price over .26 people did the same on FRAN talking of it as if it is a penny stock its a fortune 500 company with 93 of the float half by institutions.
And they cancel out one Stock-based Compensation and Market-based Stock Options based on entirely different criteria which all companies have. Kind makes my head spin with the things all of these fortune 500 companies give execs, but, it is what it is. On need only look back at the previous plan and see that the increase on the float was infinitesimal and virtually all are still held by the insiders they were awarded to.
Just like Francesca's people looking at this as if it were some scratch off lottery ticket stock, at some point one needs to set aside their arrogance and think maybe I don;t know everything and maybe I should step up my game and invest in something that is real and there are no worries, I can sleep at night. To worry about dilution in a multi billion dollar fortune 500 company because of a Stock-based Compensation or Market-based Stock Options plan you will never buy another stock for the rest of your life unless its a scratch off lottery ticket OTCBB or Nasdaq startup where worrying about such matters is a prudent course to take. All those used tickets start cluttering up your car after a while.
Fact remains now the company has passed the liquidity threshold with $750 million in liquidity $328 million in cash they can buy the OS entirely if they want. The will be buying shares that's a given if they haven't already. Threshold wasn't passed until after Q4 ended, so they ain't saying and I am glad of it. Would much rather they get shares under a dollar saving money.
They mentioned 3 times in that CC and reiterated in they are have things in motion to increase shareholder holder c=value.
When asked point blank the issue was talked around in an ambiguous way. Which again I like Fortune 500 companies aren't like little companies, they could get the share price now, with $750 in liquidity to over a dollar in an hour and have it stay there. But unlike small companies they don't pump stock to save them selves, they don't have to. They aren't trying to sell stock, they can solve the issue on the "down low" as they say slowly buying stock off the open market now that the threshold had been met.
They don;t have to say they did it til the filing in 2 months, yes it that soon, this late 10K we are not far off from the next filing.
Next week Friday morning if a 13G does not hit SEC I personally am going to consider those 17.5 million shares sold a week ago in the companies hands. After 10 business days a 13G must be filed by the buyer of those shares unless it was the company and then they have to include it in the first 10Q which is the Q the transaction took place.
Common Stock Repurchase Program
In December 2015, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized a $200 million share repurchase program (the “2016 Stock Repurchase Program”). There were no repurchases of common stock by the Company during the three and nine months ended May 4, 2019 and the remaining availability was approximately $181.4 million at May 4, 2019.
Since enacted they have purchased $18.6 million in stock, now they meet the liquidity again, what would you do? My only question.
And I said above the company could get the stock above $1 to stay in an hour, they just say that they are going to be utilizing their stock repurchase plan and plan on repurchasing $10-20 million in stock back. That would be stupid.
The real question, well 2 really, one the 17.5 million shares that someone bought and Golden Capital sold at a discount. Who/Why my only 2 questions on that. As said I will my own opinion come Friday, if it ids't filed by Thursday night that leave only one buyer, for myself.
The company emphasized on multiple occasions in the CC that there would be NO BK AT ALL and second they were working as we speak on ways to increase shareholder value, when pressed they were ambiguous as they should be.
The will do what is best for shareholders you can bet that, not just or mainly really for us, but for these in particular, we matter but these ones really matter, company is going to totally do the best thing for shareholders, that's a given.
Founders son and member of the board JAFFE DAVID R 11,754,158
BlackRock, Inc..............25,919,983.....13.1%
Stadium Capital Management..19,231,162.....9.8% <<<<<Board Member
Dimensional Fund Advisors...15,502,339.....7.83%
Nomura Holdings, Inc........15,105,247.....7.63%
The Vanguard Group..........13,652,497.....6.9%
Sapience Investments, LLC...10,395,417.....5.25%
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT..........6,663,000.....3.36%
Renaissance Technologies.....5,881,240.....2.97%
Atom Investors Lp............5,872,804.....2.96%
SCHWAB CHARLES
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC....5,266,883.....2.66%
STATE STREET CORP............ 4,886,334....2.47%
CANADA PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT BOARD.............4,337,756.....2.19%
ICM ASSET MANAGEMENT INC/WA..3,196,943.....1.61%
Connor, Clark & Lunn
Investment Management Ltd....2,980,211.....1.5%
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT.....2,318,167.....1.17
NORTHERN TRUST CORP..........2,125,676.....1.07%
Bank of New York Mellon......2,038,539.....1.03%
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP....1,394,379.....0.70%
Spark Investment Management..1,183,900.....0.59%
Under 900K holders total....17,880,496.....7.52%
Total.....................................93.759%
Second I am going to go back through the filings and see if the last time they bought stock if they mentioned it at all in the CC or PR for the Q or K. We should be getting the K soon will be able to see that and other things that were done/costed out this Q like the $10-15 million in severance they already noted in the last Q as it had just occurred.
On June 4, 2019, in connection with the cost savings target announced during the third quarter of Fiscal 2019, the Company announced a reduction in headcount of approximately 180 employees. This action resulted in severance charges of approximately $10-$15 million which will be recorded during the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2019.
And this was charged in Q4 and showed as losses again losing losers costs a bit but then they are gone, the loser and the costs associated with them.
On May 20, 2019, the Company announced its plan to wind down its dressbarn brand. The wind down is currently expected to be completed in the first half of fiscal 2020. The Company expects to record severance and other closing costs, primarily related to its retail store leases, a portion of which is expected to be recorded in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2019
Here is just another mention in the notes of costs associated with the change in direction of cutting out the losers, see another $5 million on top of the severance that isn't an ongoing thing its the cost of getting smaller. That .13 loss per share wasn't really .13 in the business it was associated with downsizing its not like going forward they are gonna be losing all this money, they are getting rid of the losers and it costs some to rid ones self of them..............
In Fiscal 2018 and 2019, the Company continued its activities under the Change for Growth program, which started in Fiscal 2017. Specifically, the Company
(i) developed new capabilities such as markdown optimization, size pack optimization and localized inventory planning with the goal of allowing it to better compete in the shifting retail landscape, (ii) enhanced our capability to analyze transaction data to support strategic decisions, and (iii) transitioned certain transaction processing functions within the brand services group to an independent third-party managed-service provider. Other activities included the ongoing fleet optimization store program as the Company continues to renegotiate leases and close stores.
Actions associated with the Change for Growth program are currently expected to continue through Fiscal 2019. As the Company continues to execute on the initiatives, we currently expect to incur additional charges in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2019 of approximately $5 million for professional fees and have identified capital projects of approximately $35 million to be incurred during Fiscal 2019. Of that amount, approximately $30 million was spent in the first
nine months of Fiscal 2019.
I wanted to point this out and the 180 employees let go which indeed had a severance payment cost that and these professional fees are not costs going forward, its like when you get a divorce, there is a cost associated with it, but, unlike a divorce there is no alimony. Its a one time thing and its done, like the CEO repeated in the CC it s painful now, but, going forward its save $150 million a year.
They knew all this and said as much, that's why they paid their interest payments up 18 months in advance so that would not get in the way of getting the job done and now haven't a payment still for more than a year, and people still talk about it like it matters or a final payment in 2023 which like most companies by that time they will have turned the entire thing around all this will be forgotten and the loan will be partially paid off, or all with a Lane Sale they could purchase a lot before then and what is left which would be much smaller could be refinanced for another 5 years, its what they do, both companies and lenders. But to worry about 3023 or an interest payment a more than a year from now, that is nothing more than fear talk by those wishing to muddy the waters. Truth is they are loaded with cash will be profitable business by 2020 and still no debt payments for 9 months, seriously.
People just read headlines and they think h my god they just continue to lose money they are going to go broke well as can be seen for the cash position and the credit revolver balance that is now at zero costing no interest anymore and the cash having grown from $100 million to $328 million that is not the case. And with the Maurice's sale going forward now that transition costs are done they will receive 49% of the profits and 49% of the sake price going forward when it s sold.
But, one reads the sensational headlines it sounds as if it is just going to lose money forever, just like Francesca's all last year they were burning cash the last CEO mad a lot of mistakes and then Q1 there were a lot of charges and losses in turning the business around.
People just listened to the talkers that no nothing or reading the headlines, not paying attention to the CEO and what he said, because you know CEO's well no your don't maybe two bit hustlers in startups and OTCBB stocks but not real companies people with backgrounds and reputations. Then what happened huge losses turned into big wins once things took effect. One needs to pay attention look where the losses are coming from during a turnaround, they are one time not forever.
Painful now so it can be fruitful in a quarter or two. Dress barn they just talk about oh. they are closing all the stores, my goodness, yeah money losers that cost money to close, but they worked it out and with the liquidation of inventory and deals with landlords they will make it out without losing much if any money and may even make a little because of the lucky time they are closing them, holiday sales time, captive audience. Sometimes people cannot see the forest for the trees.
Headlines are just that headlines and nonsense.
It's like a saying I heard my aunt mention once when someone was gossiping that so and so was messing around with so and so.
She said "were you the third pair of feet in the bed? No? Then you don't know anything"
When this 10K comes out I am going to go through it and find all the charges associated with the closures and cost cuts so the business can be in excellent shape going forward with $150 million a year in savings which is just south of $1 per share. Negatives can go to big positives quick once all the smoke clears, look at Francesca's.
Peace out.
Thanks that's what I figueed I was getting lost in the black out thing etc, I get the canceling old now, now its much better, you get X if you accomplish Y and stay for Z but you still have to pa R for them no freebies. This is a while your here you can benefit as you benefit the company, its not just a given, you get these, done.
This was one of the changes going forward, okay I like it. Thanks for reading that, I see those things, like I remember a little reading the 8K going to Investopedia to make sense of it, cannot read those without it, ead so many still don't get it, kind of like technology, i just don't get it LOL.
Thanks again John and all.
Peace out.
Excellent point, this is all part of the change going forward they have, that will give $150 million in savings this year which started Aug 5th, it had been spoken of in the past and was in the 10Q's like the last 10Q that was just a footnote. That they had let go of 180 employees as part of cost cutting measure and reorganization and since the layoffs happened in June the $15 million in severances etc would not be put on the balance sheet til Q4 that just reported as it was not a set $$ amount. So there was near .01 of the .13 loss, but as the CEO it hurts now but going forward we will be saving .01 a share a Q or .04 a share.
I want to see the 10K so I can sift through it and find other one off costs this Q that going forward will make a big deal positively. Obviously the Dress Barn closures being settled is huge weight life off out backs, want to see how much inventory there is in Dress Barn as of the end of this Q we are in. That will give a nice look into the cash bump we will get to the balance sheet on the closing of Dress Barn completely. As all the inventory will be turned into cash.
One peak at that type of bump came this Q and although with closing down old under performing stores across the board dis have a lot of write down losses, impairments, loss of future business etc they aren't losses like losses I wish they wouldn't even announce them just put the in the Q put them page one, but that is all people, and they literally take i as you are losing folding money I always found that ambiguous like the new rule of putting long term lease payments as debts, but then they are also an asset, its like are trying to make it so investors have to hire and accountant to read a filing? Is this some union thing LOL.
its getting ridiculous one has to go to investopedia to reads them anymore and at the end of the day after its added her, some taken away there it means --ck all. Like loss of future business, you close a business that is losing you 100 million a year, but that gets written down as a loss as its a loss of revenues, well they are revenues and making those revenues is losing money so how is losing them a loss?
I mean seriously, I know they can explain it away somehow some way, like the new lease listed as debt rule but partially listed as an asset is important some how to the point it shouldn't be in the notes it should be up front and center and a something similar to Pythagorean's Theorem must be used to decipher it. Just venting, I literally am going to see accountants this week see if i can make a deal to have one read filings for me and not charge me an arm and a leg. Its gotten to that point, once you think you got it they change it, and I just want to know if there are any secrets hidden in there and what does X really mean, oh .002457 % okay nothing really alright.
But anyway yeah want to see where the other saving which cost some this Q will be paying imitate dividends going forward this next Q like the 180 employees we let go. That has been needed a while, they held on to Dress barn 3-5 years longer than they should have IMHO, but, I am sure that had something to do with family and mom since it was her baby.
I will be glad when the doors close on that overnight drop $100 mil in losses and another 100+ (Hopefully 300) payroll on the corporate level that can move on.
Would love it if we could get rid of the some of the warehouses etc for Dress Barn, not sure what at this point they share with other parts and corp HQ for Dress barn that will be a large piece of real estate we won;t have to pay for they should be looking at losing at least one Corp. HQ and combine the rest under 1 roof with hopefully fashion gone and out of the picture. Ann Taylor, Loft, Justice perfect size company would be left doing 3.5 billion a year without all that back end cost lost could make $250-350 million a year.
Looking forward to seeing Maurice's going forward, the costly part done, transitions to for new owners is always a costly process. Now that that is through going forward that should grow by Q into a thriving operation. The company we own it with now are very good at what they do. The last one they turned around was in really bad shape where Maurice's just needs some serous tweaking as it was the only profitable in the value fashion line Dress Barn pulling it down eating all its gains.
This is their wiki page and they do turnarounds fast and sell them. So that is a nice nice 49% dividend we have going forward. I don't see this being a long term thing I am seeing this as a quick in and out year maybe 18 months 2 years at the most until then make some $ every Q as they streamline and it and build revenues profits so it can be sold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpCapita
Crazy they have us valued $61 mil although going up, and there is Maurice's in the hands of very capable proven partner sitting there they must value out 49% of that at nothing I guess LOL, unless it was closed then you got some write down losses future business and all LOLOLOLLOL accountants and the SEC LOL. You made but you lost, you sut costs to save, but you still lose LOL.
Hilarious sell a business but we are going to write it down as a loss, you got 200 mil for half but you lost future revenue so you lose again, kind of like government and dealing with them, even when you win they say you lose.
Peace out.
Just finished an email to Wrinkles on that very subject, Form 3's are filings made by new directors or anyone else usually coming into a company that just puts it out there, hey I am here and I am a new insider.
A form 4 usually follows, the bottom bit about Dress barn Director and This power of attorney deal haven't a clue, maybe so that this lady can fill the Form 4's that come from shares he is given in lieu of payment on his behalf.
All the other filings, I believe the company may have canceld options for shares? Or something. Seems a healthy pile filed and from what I saw on Stock Twits they are talking about a black out period which I get that, not sure in this case why?
I don't know maybe digging through so many other things I missed it somehow? Don't know what it is about or why it would have anything to do with canceling an option reward system? never heard of it before?
Can you have a look on Investopdia if you have a chance?
Does anyone know what got canceled out why? Was it just option performance awards? If so why new? And why is it so important they need a blackout buying period?
One would think that is for something more important than something so trivial? I mean seriously? I find that odd, now if something else were going on that really mattered I could see why they would say okay you can buy no shares til this is public and it will be public by such and such a date, I don;t know. More people with a better grasp of that have to clue me in?
Maybe its in the last 10Q about working? Was it in a 8K? Maybe that didn't he say something a]during CC and another 8K hit about some stuff like that?
I am gonna grab a bit to eat now, if you could check that 8K and chek investopedia see if that would be reason for black out deal.
Thanks will check back after I eat and if you haven't been able to I will have a quick gander, I am not good at filings to do with shares I usually have a guy my sister went to school with who is a lawyer look at it for me, he won't hit me up for $500 to do it LOL.
Look at the old school mountain graph/chart on WSJ that is a typical what I cal walk up the hill into the mountains recovery without all the lines etc. of today's charts and like you said EOW no weekend hold big block hits it shook it off and ended strong.
https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_179580201.png
Has the swarm first thing in the morning kicked them off, had the walk down on low volume at lunch then right back up and that little dip where they were hitting it with everything they could including that 300K market sell block it popped right up there on the end said nah not today fellas.
For us old school cats that's the start of something beautiful.
It closed strong even with the 300K block market right before close and all the traders exiting and it being shorted at the same time as it was Friday, no hold weekend day. Traded .295 avg yesterday today after bear swarm traded .315 avg and closed on that under heavy heavy pressure.
Was only weak at lunchtime with the tappy tap low volume walk down right after lunch jumped back in its spot.
Nice big kid collection today can see their footprints all along the volume bars on the red and green side gathering up eggs in a basket.
RSI Money flow Index on 30-90 days chart rising as expected once all the ones who haven't a clue finally let go next week the game changes as they won't be around to much up the works.
Stick with my close on the day, bailers shares shall be swallowed big kids have healthy appetites. Would love to see a filing after hours it cannot just be hedges pinching these shares funds should want in the game flip a sack or two, been holding red still red, why not make some obvious gains.