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I know you could put a ruler across it, so this is just impossible without manipulation in a low volume, low float, low market cap, low interest, recent new offering at $2 stock? It must be manipulation to make this happen?
Coincidence with what? I say the small drift just happens sometimes, there is no coincidence with anything, no manipulation.
So every time the share price doesn't move it must be manipulation? The volume is also quite low today, that seems like a reasonable explanation for little price movement. That and they just issued more shares at $2, which could easily put a damper on things.
These conspiracy theories are just getting ridiculous now, we have heard about 20 of these over the last year and so far there is zero hard evidence about any of them, and in my opinion no hard evidence of massive manipulation either - I know, I'm missing the obvious.
I know we have covered this before, but money in the bank is not that great if you still have no clear path to getting a product to market and real revenue. You could argue the 2015 run-up was the anomaly, and otherwise the continuing concern has been running out of money before having a marketable product. Even the Amgen money in 2016 only caused a temporary blip, until it once again became clear that getting to revenue was still a big challenge. Unfortunately the recent offering is really not enough to make a huger difference in this equation, but it does make some difference, and a little but more money and/or a reduction in burn rate could go a long way.
I'm simply saying that you don't know the market's assumptions or expectations a few years ago that got the share price to ~$30. I think the $0 enterprise value now reflects the risk of products never making it to market. Maybe it is worth more now than it was then, but back then the market thought it was worth much more.
There's one problem with this analysis, you are comparing the current state with the state a few years ago. But the market may have been expecting much more a few years ago, for instance maybe it was pricing in the GOG results being much better, curing half the patients, etc.. It's the usual story, it's more about expectations for the future rather than what is here and now, and right now the market is apparently not expecting much from the future for ADXS.
Yep, definitely back to the same old daily pattern, can't hold anything in the afternoon.
Looks like we are back to the same old pattern today, up in the morning for an hour or two, down the rest of the day. Not really a lot of volume since the opening 15 minutes.
Why does this surprise you? I don't think we are going to see an immediate bounce back to 2.50+, maybe over the course of a month or so if we are lucky, but probably not this week.
I'm still kind of hoping for an earlier start for NEO than end of 1H18, something like April instead of June could be seen as a big improvement.
I only see 87K, nothing to write home about. Maybe there was a spike at the open, but not much since then.
Wow, that would be a dream come true, but like you said, 1% chance.
Interesting that ADXS is up to a higher value after hours than all day long.
I would not be surprised if many (or all) public companies are not allowed to invest in other companies if that other company is not a going concern. It certainly would not look good to do it very often and have it not pan out, so at a minimum it would be a red flag.
Fair point, I agree this is another possible scenario. But it does mean that a deal with large up front money was not available right now.
Isn't the evidence pretty clear that there was no agreement to be made that was going to bring in a lot of up front money? I think the new public offering more or less proves it. But I think there could be a deal with a smaller amount of up front money still coming along.
No question in my mind a new CEO could make a big difference. Even making the interim CEO a permanent CEO could make some difference, the market really does not like uncertainty.
I would not assume that any deal would clearly involve more than $20M, at this point you can't assume anyone would give them a lot more money than that. Like Dew said earlier, I'm not so sure that AXAL Europe is going to add up to huge sales dollars for the first few years, therefore not a huge up front payment.
I think that's only true if you assume any deal was going to give them enough up front money. If not, then prior to this new offering, the accountants and attorneys at any partner might have squashed any agreement because ADXS was not a going concern, even with the up front money. They might have decided they wanted ADXS to be a going concern before any agreement.
However, isn't it fair to say that a deal or any agreement may have been contingent on ADXS being a going concern?
Today we are really pinned at 1.89/1.90, have to believe this still has something to do with the offering. Not sure if the underwriter is somehow willing to sell it for less than the offering price.
I was kind of expecting relatively higher volume again today - I wouldn't call it low volume, but nothing particularly impressive so far, not sure what to make of it.
I agree, there has to be more to this story, but I'm not sure what. A new CEO is a possibility, and might be received well by the market.
$5 is not really a stretch still at this point, but $10 is getting a little further off on the horizon, although not impossible.
Some things never change, closed at the low of the day.
Unfortunately this may very well be true - ouch.
Looks like ADXS will close near the low for the day, like most other days, this one just happens to have a really low high, as well.
Hovacre, I asked you about this once before, it seems that ADXS has not really published any pre-clinical results for NEO. I assume the FDA has some common requirements for pre-clinical testing to approve an IND? Also, why wouldn't they want to publish some of the pre-clinical results, like some of the other immunotherapy results recently published by the Stanford group, etc.? I'm kind of assuming the pre-clinical results must have been quite good for Amgen to invest so heavily.
Along those lines, it would be really nice if they could give some insight into expected milestone payments. It's definitely not doing the shareholders any good to keep all that information in the dark. Maybe they are expecting to get $10-15M in milestone payments over the next 12 months, which is a significant amount of runway.
Funny thing is, at this point I kind of agree with you. Since now they have the public offering underway, and at least a reasonable possibility to get approval before the money runs out, why not try to go it alone as much as possible for AXAL and the EMA? Maybe they ultimately need a distribution partner, but those terms could be much more favorable to ADXS if there is already approval. It might now be worth a shot.
Hovacre, I must have missed something, when did ADXS show/state a burn rate down to $12M/qtr?
Steve, on the surface I would have to agree with you. On the other hand, if I was a potential partner, I might want them to be closer to viability on their own before I made any agreement with up front money. It's kind of a dream, but possible. Might explain the otherwise strange timing of this announcement.
You're really still blaming this on manipulation? It's not possible that everyone else saw the dilution coming, the financial problems that have been caused by delay after delay in filing EMA, starting NEO, IND for HOT, etc.? There are many legitimate explanations for the behavior of this stock we have seen over the last two years, manipulation is probably the least of them.
My only hope is that maybe this cash raise was a requirement for a partnership deal. It's a stretch, but plausible that a partner wanted them to raise some money of their own before inking an agreement with some up front money, particularly if that up front money was not likely to be enough on it's own to get them past a possible EMA approval.
I think the only possible good news is that most of the market anticipated this, as evidenced by the quick stock decline last fall and the continued deterioration over the last few months. If there's some belief that there could be enough here to get to an approved product, the damage tomorrow may not be so bad. We'll see.
Do you mean the current authorization, not including the proposed authorization of 30M more shares in the current proxy?
Actually, this references the 03/17 filing, which allows them to sell up to $50M of stock, so we could assume up to 25-30M shares depending on what kind of price they can get. Seems like we know what the 30M shares will be used for, so much for the argument that they just wanted to authorize the shares, etc..
I really wish they had done this a year ago, would have only been 5-8M shares.
Here we go, public offering. PR.
http://ir.advaxis.com/press-release/financial-news/advaxis-announces-proposed-public-offering-common-stock-1
Unfortunately Dew was dead on.
What do you mean pinned? It went up to 3.50+ on the AT-014 news and now here we are at 2.50, I wouldn't call that pinned. It's down nearly 30% from that point. The perfectly reasonable explanation for it continuing to go down is that there is still no clear path to reaching viability. Sure, if everything pans out it will be a home run, but the way things are going they might be out before getting anything into play - that's why this continues to go down, not pinned. They need to quickly come up with a way to stay in the game, and at this point I have no belief it's going to happen before 3/21. With any luck I will be wrong for once with this company.
Looks like a little bit of volume came back this afternoon, and sure enough it tanked. Turning into another nightmare day.
Not feeling it.