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Actually this seems to be much more about the banks. Whatever Geitner has up his sleeve must be perceived as something that puts a secure floor under their losses. I meant too to respond to your earlier post about taking our lumps, it seems to me that Joe public is the only one taking the lumps. The banks get whatever they need to make them whole the rest of us are left blowing in the wind. At least for the moment. But I do agree that we all drank the kool aid but you know the people that were supposed to know were practically pouring it over our heads. I used to get checks every month from Wells Fargo they were loans all I had to do was put the check in the bank. Live checks in the mail......
one would think, the pound is WAY overdone here but I am too chicken to go short. Oil is down gold last I saw was stable so I am not sure what this about.
well the markets seem to be pricing in a recovery. I just hope it is on firm footing. But ah I find an expert that is thinking what I am......
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/169781/Peter-Schiff-Stimulus-Bill-Will-Lead-to-%22Unmitigated-Disaster%22?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,QQQQ,SPY,DIA,TLT,UDN
Ok I think his doomsday scenario is a little extreme. But as I keep saying we are trying to revive the economy with the bombs that blew us up.
Don't sell yourself short. If this were easy, we would all be millionaires here.
And you can't debate mark to market in a vacuum I suppose. Another part of the problem was the reserve requirements. It's us babyboomers, we somehow got caught up in the idea that we had found ways around universal principles as it were and that is coming back to slap us in the face.
so the jobs number is even worse than the worst forecast and the usd/jpy continues right on up....I am thinking it is because with that number the expectation is that the stimulus gets passed quickly today? I guess I should just stay away. I have plenty of other things to do.....
lol could pretty much say the same.
I'm sorry I just assumed you didn't really read my post or the replies. I thought you were just skimming posts and replied with that wonderfully conscise explanation of what mark to market is. I know I am not at all clear a lot of the time though. I was just wondering why on earth we would want the mark to market standards relaxed it seems to me they ought to be tightened up if anything. We have had a long series now of big financial debacles because of the rather arbitrary valuation of assets that businesses and banks hold.
lol I know what mark to market is.
well they can do that if they let me suspend the mark to market valuation of my assets too then. My house I think is worth 650K I'm off to the bank to refinance, show me the money!
"But however problematic it may be, I know of no other objective way of valuing assets. Most alternatives are an invitation to fraud--assets are worth whatever we think they will be worth when we sell them. Or they are worth what we paid for them, maybe adjusted for this or that factor, or maybe not." exactly what I am thinking. I also don't see the value of making the banks whole with gobs of money for easy credit so that we can inflate something else. Because who are the banks going to lend to? business isn't going borrow and expand as long as demand is slack and that is going to be the case at least until employment starts picking up and as I said in another post it could be longer because people do not shake this kind of event easily. Now my daughter said the hospital that she works for put projects on hold because they could not get the financing so maybe there are more cases like that out there.....but enough? I just can't help but feel that we are trying to solve our problems with "solutions" that created the mess in the first place. On the flip side you give 50Mil to National Endownment for the Arts people get put to work stuff gets bought.
ok but my argument would be that in this environment there is increased risk that that loan will not get paid back. The whole reason why we are in this mess is that risk was not properly taken into account and the supposed rating systems were crap. IF you take away mark to market now how do we find a bottom in all of this. It is the same with housing and personal balance sheets, because my neighbor went into foreclosure my house is worth less, it is still the same house in the same condition and I don't have to sell but if I wanted to refinance they wouldn't give me money based on what my house was worth yesterday before my neighbors house got foreclosed on. Sucks for me but that is what my house is worth at the moment on paper.
ok again I am in confusion. I thought the whole mark to market thing was a way of forcing transparency in the valuation of assets.....by relaxing this standard aren't we just encouraging the banks and other holders and potential holders of such assets to hide huge losses? and even be less concerned about incurring them? and isn't the reason why the banks weren't even lending to each other was because no one felt sure about what was really on their books? what am I missing here?
cause overseas people are going to want to buy US assets that are going to benefit from our turnaround? Still it has only gone up against the yen hasn't it ? it has stayed about the same versus the euro, the aud did ok and the pound well apparently many of us are in tears over the pound and it's unfathomable rise of late.
force of habit I suppose. I had NO IDEA the senate was expected to pass that bill today. Which to me says that I was way out of the loop. There is no way I would have shorted the pound had I known. I might short a rally if it passes as it still needs to be reconciled with the house bill and truthfully I am disappointed at some of the stuff they want to take out like the little tiny sum to the national endowment for the arts. Art gives life perspective and meaning the first of which has been sadly lacking clearly in the last decade or so.
well it is because the USD/JPY just went wild. Guess all the longer term shorts thought they had better cover before the stimulus gets passed by the senate and the bad bank plans are announced.
I did read something about repatriation.
My daughter was asking why it seemed so much easier to lose 300 in a day than make 300. And suddenly I saw the sense of Daiello's method of averageing up.
when does the GBP run out of steam? I don't care if there is money to lend. People aren't going to be borrowing if they aren't working and businesses are not going to be borrowing if there is no demand...or employing people. Something will get juiced because the money will go somewhere so we will get another speculative bubble...
well just gave 300 back. Recouped 34. AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH.. Guess they are loving the Bad bank thing. Return of the speculative bubble. Have we not learned anything???? going to console myself that I didn't totally freeze because it is now up another 200 pips from where I bailed.
thatnks. Yeah the pound is like the little engine that could recently.
On the G/J roller coaster. Short. GEtting creamed.
thanks everyone!
so I just made it over the 1K mark in my account. I had 150 nov 4th and 40 about 3 weeks before that. Nothing super amazing, but I am VERY HAPPY
well the main thrust at least in theory for the stimulus is to get people back to work. That will make a difference but I think it will take longer than most are thinking. And that is because people are not going to go back to spending the way they have. Look what happened in Japan they still can't get those people to spend much after 20 plus years since they had their real difficulties.
I agree.
maybe over the long term but short term not so sure......
hear you on the clone thing. I am going to teach my little guy though he can be my partner.
really nice Worn it seems like you are way in the lead.
can we pull the plug on the pound? let the air out? stop feeding it Jester's pinto beans?
I think the recent deceleration of the slow down may be short lived......too many layoffs. Be interesting to see how many of the pending home sales actually end up closing for instance.
wish I had gone long AUD/USD at .6424 when I was thinking about it. Decided it moves too slow.....up 70 basis points now lol. Markets volatile can't really stay in anything too long it seems like.
I woke up around 1:30 to see I was up nicely on EUR/USD long stupidly set my stop at break even and gave up all the gains.....I think I woke up at the high I should have locked in at least midway.
he claimed he could make 10% a month I think I read. Which is kind of funny because most of us here think that is a mediocre week lol. Anyway thanks for the multiple warnings, I don't think any of us here are turning over our funds to someone else to trade.
those King of the Mini contests that FXCM holds are they scams or for real. do you know?
the whole world is expecting the EUR to crash. I'm thinking it goes up......
set my stop too tight on the EUR/USD long. Kinda knew but I am superstitious, if I don't get greedy I grind out decent profits.
"have to watch my pinto beans slow cook"
is that anything like watching paint dry? or is it more like watching the grass as it grows
lol. I think the Brits are making back to their desks, after being paralysed by snow.
yeah the pound just shot up.....and the Euro although not quite as much and the usd/jpy keeps falling. So maybe USD selling as opposed to strength in the others?