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Bad oil news just doesn't matter right now. Bought UWTI near open, and there I am flipping it for a decent profit a little over an hour later as crude went up following terrible numbers. Yet another win for me. Good job to you also and congrats again.
Yes, we did catch a failing knife but I believe we will make a nice profit. Good day here and I guess no, the RSI wasn't going to go below 6 the market decided.
I think oil being up today helped because I think the reason MTG (along with other insurers like RDN) have been hammered so bad is that there are contagion fears about the oil bust infecting other segments of the US economy. People are thinking about the housing bust but that is apples and oranges. The housing sector can take down the whole economy, the oil sector I really really doubt. Oil sector is much much smaller then the housing sector.
I mean I kind of get it. Oil crashes = oil company incurs losses = oil company lays off workers = oil worker can't pay mortgage = mortgage defaults = MTG pays out.
I get it but also low energy prices also boost the other sectors in ways too. The oil sector isn't big enough IMO to cause severe damage to the US housing sector (maybe in certain regions) and the US economy. Defaulgts may trickle up from laid off oil workers but how much of the population are oil workers? Small percentage. Contagion fears are overblown IMO. IMO China meltdown is a bigger threat to US economy then oil bust. Also I'm thinking unfortunately the FED is going to start pumping again.
One thing is that I never buyin all at once, never. Usually I have 3 or 4 buyins and sometimes even more. When a pinch gets its bounce it really needs to break the 20sma to change the trend. The ADX is strength of trend so for the ADX to stop the incline there needs to be a good enough bounce/run/counter trend whatever to halt the ADX and make it start going down and that is what actually breaks the pinch.
MTG is up nicely today and so I'll use that as an example. I had two buys in there yesterday. Current average is 5.75. It was a failing knife so if say I was willing to put 6k in there I am not going to do it all at once. My first buy was $750 worth and second buy was $1000 worth. If it continued to move down then I would have continued to follow with bigger buys at maybe 15 cent increments. Each stock is different and my strategy differs with each. MTG fundamentally is a fine company and had a RSI of 6 with an ADX close to 60 so I didn't think it could fall below $5. 60 ADX is very extreme and RSI of 6 is almost never seen it is so low. The downtrend looked over exhausted to me so I went for it. To me it looked like low hanging fruit.
I keep my buys strategic and I make sure at all times I keep my dollar cost average well below what the 20sma is. That way when the pinch finally gets its bounce as long as my dollar cost average is well below the 20sma I get a profit.
One thing I have come to learn is that a pinch almost always gets its bounce. It always has to eventually. The pinch has to get broken at some point and the only way to do that is for the downtrend to take a hit. A counter trend or pop or whatever that takes the pps up to the 20sma at least to start to make the ADX line come down.
Final thing is that when something is pinched it usually isn't an "if" but a "when" as far as a bounce goes. The pinch will gets its bounce but it can take weeks and even months to do so. Eventually they always pop though and the pps can keep falling as it stays pinched. Sometimes people give up on a pinch if it has been a long while but that doesn't mean that eventually it won't pop because it will. Sometimes though it could be better to move on if waiting on a pinch is getting exhausting. Sometimes it is better to just try another stock because there are plenty of fish in the sea.
I'll use UWTI as an example. Makes a good example especially because it has a sticky post about it here.
Last week I bought a starter position in UWTI with crude oil at about $28. One thing that is very important for me to do is to never buyin all at once. I have to average in and ease in. Once crude was around $27 I bought a bigger chunk of UWTI in the 1.40s my cost avg was 1.52 or so.
Now at that time traditional pinch players would not have touched UWTI. There was zero confirmation or really even a hint of a reversal and RSI was well below 30 and headed the wrong way.
Look at it now. UWTI turned around on Thursday and continued Friday. Then once it kind of looked "confirmed" and RSI broke above 30 what happened? Smack-down happened. I sold at RSI 30 anticipating the smack-down. Tradition pinch players bought in thinking a confirmation was close at hand and with RSI breaking above 30. They were wrong. I was not and as they gained nothing I gained 60 cents a share or almost 40%.
These are the kind of things I am talking about. I like a stock like MTG because first I know to average in and second what I actually believe will happen is because the RSI is so so low in the toilet that when it does bounce it won't even get up to RSI 30, however because it is so low at 6 currently that's a pretty good bounce to get it to go from RSI 6 to even 20 something. I want to be in for that bounce. Another thing too is that one like MTG with such a low fast sto and RSI it will most likely do a straight up V shape when it does bounce. On those the bottom happens really fast and are gone quickly. Similar again to UWTI last week. That dead cat bounce happened really fast and came all the sudden.
Anyway just sharing some of my experiences and things I have learned over the years. I actually would not recommended my style or even teach it because it would be too risky for most and really most wouldn't have the stomach for it.
I was going to ask you why you thought MTG was no where close to being ready. I instead went through those 4 stocks you just posted and from that I see what type of pinch plays you like. You like them once risk seems to have been lessened a lot. The true definition of pinches where they are already moving up and reversal is confirmed with RSI over 30. You like these I'm guessing. I get that. That's not my style though.
I like them before they reverse. I like the challenge of it. Also, too many times I have seen pinches be setup with RSI over 30 and what looks like a confirmed reversal and then it stops dead in its tracks at RSI mid 30s to mid 40s. That happens a lot actually. Then also the 20sma is usually the biggest resistance for a pinch. By the time the pinch is already reversed and with RSI over 30 the pinch is nearing the 20sma by then a lot of the times. If it gets smacked down by the 20sma then the little run gained the trader pretty much nothing.
If I am good enough, and sometimes I am, I am able to time the buyin of the pinch pretty close to where the downside is almost done and I am in for the initial rise while it starts its reversal and passes RSI 30. That's the point many like to jump in but if I am already in and had been in then I am already up 20-30% sometimes, sometimes more sometimes less. Then if the 20sma does the smack-down I got my bounce where others didn't really get much to speak of.
What I do is a lot more risky though but also a lot more rewarding. This is why I do like MTG because I don't want to buy it when RSI is up passed 30 and reversal confirmation looks confirmed. The RSI is 6 on it. If it reversed and did so enough to get to 30 then that is a lot of gain that was missed out on. I want that gain. Frankly too MTG is the type I have noticed that would get just over RSI 30 and nearing the 20sma by then and then fall apart. The bounce that it gets to get it back up close to the 20sma and RSI over 30 will probably actually be its bounce.
I know I sound unconventional and different but different stokes for different folks. I don't play pinches the way most people do. I'm not saying my way is better or anything. Nothing wrong at all playing a pinch the traditional way. I just like my way after years of experimenting with them and also like I said I like the challenge.
Good luck to you and here are two that might be more your style that I am watching. GSAT and RJET. I think RJET was posted by Interlooper recently.
I think I have figured out the reason for this really steep fall for MTG. It actually doesn't really have anything to do with MTG. I look around and of course energy stocks are destroyed due to the price of oil but then also all insurers are getting hammered. RDN, GNW, etc etc are getting crushed now. Then banks are also getting crushed.
This has to do with the bubble pop of oil. Naturally the fall in oil prices effected oil stocks, no brainer there. We are seeing contagion to other sectors. If people in the energy sector loose their jobs can they keep up with their mortgages? That is why insurers are getting hit also why banks are getting hit. The contagion is spreading. Also the broad market is looking bad. Which is partly do to the crash in oil but also do to the FED interest rate hike as liquidity tightens.
Fear runs wild and people remember the housing bubble pop in 2008 and how it brought down the US economy. This company barely survived through that as did the few insurers that did make it as well as banks. People have that fear all over again.
The difference though is that even though the energy sector in the US is big and provides a lot of jobs it isn't housing. The housing sector is the real giant. The fears are that oil's crash will infect the housing sector so naturally here we are. I personally think it is overboard and too much panic. I don't think the energy sector can take down the US economy. The housing sector absolutely can but I also don't think the oil sector will take down the housing sector either. It can do some damage due to people loosing jobs etc, but not take it down. Oil sector is in regions, not nation-wide.
That's the best reason I can come up with. The bottom line is that contagion fears about oil have spread. The housing market however is doing OK and MTG is doing fine. Fears about oil have crossed over to this sector but fundamentals have not. Not yet anyway and if the oil bust does start to effect insurers/housing/banks it wouldn't be as damaging as what the current fear is predicting to be. We'll see though. It all revolves around how much the oil bust is going to effect US housing and financial markets. As of now to me MTG is down too far too fast. I get the fall but not at this rate of decline especially since the actual company's fundamentals haven't really changed to this point.
I don't think anyone understands why it is down this much. There are maybe a couple of things that maybe justify a little sell-off as it did down to $9 but getting slammed to down here back to 2013 prices. I couldn't even begin to explain that.
I'm an ease in kind of person so I will buy a little here and there as this unfolds.
If I find an actual and reasonable reason fundamentally why this has fallen so steeply I'll post it but as of now I can't find a thing.
(MTG) Yea, you very well might be right. It's falling faster then oil stocks lol. I do not buy in all at once, I like to ease in. Just bought a starter. Will watch and build position slowly. Looked at fundamentals, all looks ok. That whole PMI sector is getting beaten down. Defaults are down though and housing is doing ok. I couldn't even try and explain why the steep sell-off, not that steep of one anyway.
MTG hard pinch. RSI at 7. Chart looks stupid it is so oversold. Their main competitor RDN close to the same. Both good buys here IMO.
I'm buying. Ridiculous looking chart. RSI at 7 lol, ADX near 60, fast sto at pretty much zero. Ridiculous IMO. As far as fundamentals, pretty good quarter, pretty good earnings, good cash reserves and now the stock sells below book value.
Hmmm, yea kind of on to something. I have noticed too that some of these sometime have been bouncing off trips 4/5 for awhile. Like ARYC did in December.
Thank you, enjoy the weekend and stay warm!
Yes, good call and a pretty easy one. Those buying DWTI when oil was 27-28, I thought they were nuts. I tried to say they were a couple of days early. DWTI and SCO were parabolic, it was stupid, plain stupid to buy them at that level IMO.
Yep, sneaky little sucka, Our avg is pretty good. I'm willing to give a little time myself on MXSG.
Have a look at RJET, it's off bottom but looks like has some room to run. I got in at 1.88 today.
Crude oil is running. Killed it with HK and UWTI. I had sold because I had hit my target. Also didn't think crude $31.7 would break but it did. Shorts have to be scrambling now on it. Oil was more shorted then ever before in HISTORY and that was at $27. Just stupid as hell to have the largest short position in history with it under $30. They were nuts.
MXSG, I see. It looked like yesterday he was running dry. Cool, well we get those 24s taken out and we might have a runner. It might take a bit to get through 24. Some are wanting to take their profits there it seems. Someone just sold actually. Still looks pretty good.
Thank you, you too, congratulations.
Having some trouble cracking $31.7, if it does O boy.
My mid 1.40s shares I was way way up on so I sold a bunch. Will keep watching.
Great day everyone. I was trying to tell those bears yesterday they were a couple of days too early jumping back in on DWTI. Maybe some listened.
You'll be fine. It was at 24 cents in after hours. All indicators are still in the toilet (except for accumulation/distribution), which is good, because it has tons of room to run. The downtrend had almost no support areas so that means the uptrend won't be fighting against what used to be support levels. Also closed above EMA 4 and this baby has the big momo right now. Honestly I expect a multi-day run here. At a minimum a big pop in the morning at least but probably a 3 to 5 day run IMO.
Boy am I glad I ease into buying and I ease out to sell. Trying to buy all at once or sell all at once has never been my style. 24 cents AH. I am really happy that I stick to my style because I still have 15,000 shares. If I had sold everything today boy I'd be pissed right now. I have noticed that there are some grumpy people posting tonight...
I like MXSG after looking at it. I'm going to follow you in there.
Yep great day and yes see you higher tomorrow IMO. Chart has tons of room to run.
Sounds good :O)
You're welcome YWC. We are going very well here. Already up a big percentage and I know you are too, congrats.
Yep agree, I'll be right here with you swinging/flipping/building away.
As Smilin B said will gas be 1.80 over the summer? Answer No. I agree.
I like your posting. Funny and smart with some good calls, keep it up.
I think there will be a more then just one day bounce. If not then nothing really resets. Why I'm still holding some of my shares from yesterday. Shorts jumping back in on the short train I think are maybe 2 days early IMO. Shorts that didn't cover yesterday are just greedy IMO. Shorts on the sidelines right now waiting for a better short entry are the smarter bears IMO.
My calculations came out to just about 2 bucks when I did it the other day. It's hard trying to figure it out with the erosion but I'm probably pretty close I think. I have sold some at 1.82 as I was nearing my target but I think there will be a 2-4 day pop. Only because that's what oil seems to do when it has had an upward correction pop in this downtrend.
Ha, this morning people talking about the tiny little pop yesterday was a head fake. No, the head fake WAS the head fake. I'm still holding my 1.40s from yesterday.
As I had been saying on here. UWTI was in the toilet and DWTI was parabolic. DWTI had all indicators way overbought. Crude was way oversold. DWTI was clearly in impulse EW 5. A correction was way overdue. A correction for crude to pop and along with it UWTI and a drop for DWTI. Easy call to make on that. Moving forward I believe crude gets that pop to $31 I had been thinking about. After that...I have no clue. I'll probably cash out at crude $31 or so.
I still think "true bottom" for crude will be in March sometime. Maybe $22-$25. One thing I knew was that it couldn't fall from $38 down to $22-$25 without at least one decent pop to reset some stuff.
Good luck everyone.
I did see your post yesterday and even more so thought it was a good idea and agreed.
Nice job Mylife, congrats. Heck of a great day for me between GBSN and HK.
I'm being truthful. The posts are right there in my history. What I did was I just thought about the warrant holders and what was most likely what they were up to. Everything else I pretty much blocked out because the warrant holders were in full control. I got it right in September and got it right now. My one mistake was not getting in around late November as I should have seen a pump job from the warrant holders coming just before the R/S was to happen. I just wasn't paying attention so I missed that run.
Good luck to you and I wish you the best.
What next dilution? The one in April, yea...not worried about that right now.
This was a big fat head fake. Everyone was so sure the pps would crash today and then next week the stock would run...opps, the market isn't that easy. I was buying yesterday as were a few others here.
I'll cash out when I please, thank you and I see no reason for GBSN not to have the 22 million dollar market cap it had in early August before the warrant/unit mess so I'm would like that. Which ends up being about 30 cents.
I did sell some at about 18 cents to get a some investment money out. The rest I would like to sell at what I think is fair value.
I don't know about other people but my posts are right there in my history. When I buy and sell for the most part. A few minutes after I executed the trades. I played this in September and did well and then stayed away until yesterday. My only regret is that I did not get in for that early December pump as I was not paying attention but I should have seen that coming a mile away.
If anyone is wondering why there was a pump job before in early December just before the R/S it was the naked shorters (warrant holders) doing a pump up to get the pps higher so that they had more downside to profit from once conversion resumed. All in my opinion of course.
Thank you sir, you as well.
I agree, as I said this morning the market cap before the warrants and units came was 22 million in early August. What changed in the actual business for GBSN not to still have a 22 million MC? Nothing changed. If anything they are further along as a business, growing. 22 million MC / 75 million shares is 30 cents. Clear as day a bargain IMO.
Making a killing here today. As I posted yesterday I have a nice chunk at 10.9 cents (15,000 shares) and another chunk this morning (10,000 shares) at 13 cents. I knew this would run before the "herd" thought it would.
Sold 10,000 up at .179s, holding other 15,000 for now. On a dip might buy the 10,000 back.
As far as the market cap discussion this stock as been manipulated so much that it would be hard to figure out at what point in time was the fair value market cap.
Therefore I will use the pre-warrant naked shorted and then pumped and then naked shorted again market cap. That takes me back to early August BEFORE the units became convertible and since they naked short you have to go a good couple of weeks before they could be converted. First week of August I'll say is fair market cap which would be about 22 million. 22/75 = about 30 cents pps now. I think the stock is very under-valued. This is without possible FDA approvals. I don't think I'm asking for much. Just the same market cap that GBSN had in early August before the units converted. As far as the company business, it only is improving since August IMO.
As of close yesterday 1.23 million C warrants left at a 11.18 conversion ratio so 1.23 X 11.18 = 13.75 million shares left of dilution. That is way way less then what a lot on here were saying were left. A lot of people thought 50, 60 million more shares of dilution were left. 13.75 million can be absorbed in a couple of days, heck maybe even in one day if volume is high enough.
I think today will be crazy for this stock, but I also think it is now an opportunity, we'll see.
People are going to say to you that 1) GBSN has no money to buyback shares. They actually do though if they wanted to. 2) GBSN doesn't care about shareholders to even want to buyback shares. No they don't care but they care about themselves and they could make a killing buying back and locking the float up.
It isn't going to happen though because the management is financially really stupid. Other companies have done these kinds of things when under attack by shorts and naked shorts and they "protect the stock" while in the process make a killing buying back really low, locking the float and causing a squeeze then selling back into the float much higher. GBSN management I seriously doubt will do it though. Heck they probably wouldn't even know where to begin. Despite that this will get a run eventually.
Yep, DWTI is as clear as day at impulse wave 5 of EW. Pretty much all indicators well overbought. I mean clear as day. Shorting DWTI should be easy money right here. As a short-term trade though. DWTI should correct down and UWTI should correct up. After those corrections though...
It's what I did back in September and it worked out just fine, so I think I will do well.
I agree about the market cap also. Before the whole warrant mess started GBSN had about a 20 million dollar market cap last August. Once the warrant mess is over one would think the market cap gets back up to 20 million. Then add they are further along as a company then they were back in August so maybe they get a little bit of a market cap incresase, but if not then I'll take a 20 million dollar market cap and that will give me a profit.