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Considering that: (1) those plans concerned Socket 1207 and Socket S1, not M2, and (2) it isn't news (The Inq got this one wrong, Anandtech had the M2 launch pegged as June/July from last fall, because of nVidia's chipset roadmap change), I don't think you need to worry.
Well, let me rephrase that. AMD investors don't need to worry.
Will cover the crystal foundation plate future the city situation all to look at the Intel complexion
Spreads the will to be bold
Last May 1, the date moonlight I C foundation plate produced the strategic place Chungli factory fire, fired the following I C foundation plate to lack the goods raging tide, the revertex floodgate ball array foundation plate (PBGA) and covers the crystal foundation plate (FC Substrate) a price group anabatic wind to rise, the light was from last May to in the year's end eight months time, average price on rise approximately three tenths. But, the base lumber yard service all knew that, PBGA foundation plate last year the price was really greatly rises, but covered the crystal foundation plate part, only had produces goods greatly rises for Intel, other only had the slightly price adjustment, the increase scope actually one ○ % all.
Covers the crystal foundation plate city situation two-pole to respond, actually most main reason on in customer structure. At present uses covers the crystal foundation plate the non- Intel product, mainly still drew a chart the chip, the chip group's northern bridge chip and so on primarily, the certainly biggest customer group was NVIDIA, ATi, the prestige is abundant, 矽 the series and so on several family properties. Because cartography chip and chip group last year second half year inducted time nine ○ 奈 metric systems regulations was not suitable, causes to use covers the crystal seal and covers the crystal foundation plate the proportion to be still low, certainly also created covers the crystal foundation plate price not to see the anabatic wind to rise the quotation.
But delivers Intel to cover the crystal foundation plate, the price actually is as soon as rises rises again, the principal factor lies in Intel the processor and the chip group, uses covers the crystal foundation plate layer to increase, but the present time spot just happens to meet Intel the processor to cover the crystal seal and the foundation plate design principle, possibly pushes by the present third generation to the fourth generation. Therefore Intel's foundation plate suppliers are not willing in this time to expand produce, but the foundation plate layer increases massively reduces existing producing energy, produces goods covers the crystal foundation plate nature for Intel seriously to fall short of demand, the price greatly rises also � a minute reason.
Only is along with covers the crystal foundation plate to account for the total cost proportion to pull high, Intel as if also feels the situation not to be a little right, therefore starts to seek the new foundation plate supplier, certainly is not too making industry in and the market public figure is surprised. Entire diligent General Manager Hu Chuch'ing said that, covers the crystal foundation plate technology or to have to depend on Intel to impel, only now Intel does not have truly decided when changes covers the crystal foundation plate design principle, therefore the whole world mainly covers the crystal base lumber yard, always does not have the investment to construct the new factory the movement, but Intel in order to must obtain the foot 夠 covers the crystal foundation plate source of goods, future will give the order form other base lumber yards, certainly will be has the possibility very much the matter.
Because the present whole world covers the crystal foundation plate to produce goods in the quantity under, some seven tenths still were wrap by Intel, but anticipated Intel in order to fall 低覆 the crystal foundation plate price, or constrains the foundation plate rise in price, seeks the new foundation plate supplier, will be the quickest way. Therefore this year did cover crystal foundation plate city situation like last year to be whether good, then needed to regard Intel the movement to decide, so long as Intel had determined the new design principle, started to expand covers outside the crystal foundation plate committee the order form quantity, then covered the crystal foundation plate market to be supposed also to have lacks again a year to two years time good scene.
I suspect "family lumber yard" = "motherboard" :)
JJ, you should archive this on your site:
(The good info starts on page 18 or so...)
http://www.cloetens.be/indeling/2006-01_MSIproductroadmap.pdf
DDR2-800 support for socket 1207 mobos coming from MSI in Q2.
Taylor (DC Turion) notebooks from MSI, starting in May, more added in July. (spec'd at 25W/35W)
Overall view of MSI's AMD and Intel notebook offerings for the next 2-3 quarters.
And more...
here: http://www.cloetens.be/indeling/2006-01_MSIproductroadmap.pdf
AMD errata easy to get, chipgeek author ignorant:
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29321
I had, until you posted a reply.
Yeah, $20M charge is about right-- shouldn't come as a surprise, as the 10-Q/Ks have noted the prepayment penalty schedule: principal + interest (that part is fine, no charge) + an extra 7.75% of principal for paying it off in this particular timeframe. That works out to over $16M on this $210M of principal. The rest must be this fee or that fee.
So now "statements of fact" is your standard? Nevermind.
And in China they sell AMD, but not elsewhere?
So now *you* are making personal attacks??? Okay. I think I'll head over to the strictly moderated board. Seems to have all the traffic these days anyhow.
According to the TOS, the post prior to your post was spam. Do the TOS apply to this board, or not?
That post should've been a PM to you or Matt. As a public post, it is in violation of the TOS.
Buggi, see your PM on SI.
And moreover, what Intel produced was a performance & engineering embarrassment. One hopes they likewise rush other products to market when they are in reaction mode to the next AMD products.
and you can see beyond the tunnel vision of some other investors out there
And I can think of a few of those...
Like Intel?
And 'partisans' doesn't imply a herd labelling?
One more time, your "Jan to two quarters afterward" didn't refer to your stock price prediction.
Wrong as usual. Oh, the irony!
The primary stock price driver will be AMD's expanding capacity, IMO. Binsplits will be a secondary factor. AMD needs to stay competitive, is all. Maybe you're saying the same thing.
But smoothie told us to "be careful". How can this be? <ggg>
Should've happened after earnings. Take a forward P/E of 30, 2006 earnings of $2/sh... there's a $60 stock, right now.
And with the latest debt reduction moves, and subsequent "credit rating" increases, new funds may want in.
It was transparently lousy, performance-wise, if that's what you meant.
Nope, that wasn't in reference to the stock price. But go on, tell us all to "be careful here". <ggg>
You didn't. That news was out between 2 and 3PM EST. About 11 hours ago.
Ultimately what matters is the stock price. Earnings growth is closely tied. Sales and sales growth would be further down the list. Pets.com had a lot of sales. It's just that they lost money on just about every sale.
Essentially you're claiming that a second-tier indicator is more important than the price of the investment itself.
Anyhow, you don't seem very good at predicting AMD's stock price, so why should anyone take your latest "warnings" seriously?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8369243
re: what makes you think AMD will be available for $17 in January?
This is a very cash intensive business. AMD has done well, but I think they will have problems proving longer term profits. I think Q4 may bear that out, maybe not. If not Q4, then I suspect a few quarters down the road. Intel's PR campaign has just started and will run throughout '06. AMD will have problems getting better press and the lawsuit, for one, won't help, as will the load from Spansion (even after the IPO). They are also carrying a lot of debt that needs to be paid down. The thing that will keep them alive is the new fab, which they need desperately. As well as depreciation.
A price of $17 is pretty much on the long term growth curve (which occillates a lot which gives good ST results) so it's just a better price to get in at than at present.
A better question would be: Why would I want to buy AMD at $17?
Wrong on the price (by over 2X), wrong on the debt situation.
No, you said in November you thought AMD would be available at $17/sh right now. Whoops!
No. What matters to investors is sales.
LOL!!! Yeah, okay there, smooth. Stock investors don't care how the share price changes. Good one.
He didn't read closely, either the Inq story or this from today:
When AMD rolls out dual-core processors with built-in virtualization hooks midyear, the company also aims to demo quad-core processors running on its current server platform, said Marty Seyer, senior vice president of AMD's Commercial Business and Performance Computing, Microprocessor Solutions Sector unit.
"midyear" is known to be *April*, about as early as "midyear" can be.
And the 1207 platform will be demoed at CeBIT in March, along with... yup, a QC part.
And here's an amusing post of his, from earlier in the month:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9279826
Far more realistic than rumors of a 2006 quad core, even though some guys just can't get past the notion that delivering quad core is a lot more complex than just creating 2 instances of the current dual core implementation.
Whooops! Looks like AMD has already delivered it, and will demo publicly in March.
And this recent prediction looks increasingly likely to fail:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9216310
Chipdesigner, I'll bet you that AMD won't launch a quad core part this year.
You'd "be careful here". LOL! How many times have you said such things over the past 6 months?
AMD is apparently already sold out for Q1. So what are Intel sales people doing? Who cares?
A-whistlin' past the graveyard you go...
Maybe you should've listened to this:
(Note the "euphoria" will now last 0 weeks, as Dempsey is to early Q2 now.)
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=28639
This euphoria will last a few short weeks, because AMD will come out with the F-Step (FS) Opterons in early Q2. We already mentioned that they will be lower power and have DDR2 in the desktop articles, both of these will play a big role on the server front.
Lower power comes from a tweaked core, not a smaller process. The FS cores won't set any records for lower power, but it will be a noticeable decrease. How much? Current cores are not near the family TDP numbers for power consumed, and there is enough yield headroom to put out a line of 68W parts at real volumes. Picture the peak of the current yield curve a bit above the 68W limit. FS will probably move that down to the point where the 68W parts could become the largest bin, so think more towards 5W of savings rather than 20.
DDR2 is also interesting, it lowers power use dramatically, which is where the FS probably makes a good chunk of the savings. It also increases bandwidth, a good thing, while increasing latency, a bad thing. To top it off, it allows AMD to add precious DIMM slots to the server mobos, coupled with increased density of the memory itself, you can potentially have much larger memory configurations. As icing on the cake, the voltage differential between the memory controller and the rest of the chip will be lessened, easing one of AMDs worst frequency scaling headaches.
The other FS features are the things that server people care about. 1400MHz HT will be a big one that is useful across the board, from 2 to 8 sockets. It will ease the scaling problems AMD faces between 4 and 8 sockets, and help a lot on non-local memory accesses. There is nothing really bad to say here.
The next big one is a revamped crossbar with 4 CPU ports, can you say quad core? I knew you could. They have been shown behind closed doors for a while, but look for a public debut at CeBit with 90nm parts, but I don't think they will productize it until 65nm after mid-year. In fact, they probably will sit on it until needed in the real world rather than pulling a Paxville. Unfair comparison really, AMD QC parts will be the real thing, Paxville wasn't. If Woodcrest lives up to the hype, look for earlier QC parts from AMD, it is a finance choice, not a technical one, do they want to burn the wafer area when they are capacity constrained ?
Demo @ 90nm in March, productized in H2 06 @ 65nm.
So much for Woodcrest. :)
Dempsey launch is April, at the earliest. 2.8GHz DC @ 95W, with faster HT, etc., is extremely likely at that time, IMO.
If you knew that the ESPP pricing window isn't large enough to repair years of damage, you'd understand.
When you fall into the same boat, it is. <ggg>
Oh, the irony!
Sounds like someone is upset about her ESPP...
Works for me. It was a 5-day view of Intel stock. Keep up the good work!
Good point. I'd forgotten that Pacifica is supposed to have some large performance advantages over Intel's virtualization, again thanks to AMD's on-board memory controller.
Today they may be Sun-only. In April?
Did you get the picture regarding Rev F having SiGe and a DDR2 controller instead of DDR1, and process the implications for core frequency improvements that have been mentioned by AMD?
- At the same power, SiGe brings about a 20% clock improvement over DSL.
- AMD has also said that the DDR2 controller, running at a lower voltage, will remove one big frequency scaling issue.
So at 90nm, 2.8GHz (non-SE) should be no problem at all. The only question is 3GHz non-SE, and that too may be possible.