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BlackTruck, Good overall wave count.
I would debate the first wave b was a triangle.
Markets have to rally one more time despite...
Greece falling apart again.
US debt limit deadline in August 2011
China bubble about to pop.
...in order to sell garbage to retail investors while insiders bail.
Subprime Mortgage Market Meltdown
This one has a waterfall chart. The waterfall broke the uptrend channel, and accelerated to the downside. Loks very motive.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
Off Topic: I know what a "nutmeg" is. I played soccer in high school. It was definitely more fun to give than receive ;)
Lower lows and lower highs today.
The intraday trading today is structurally horrible. There are many drops and bounces. The overall downtrend channel is very narrow. This points to a very motive wave, and many smaller degrees (1 and 2's) unfolding. I'm looking for a gap down tomorrow as waves 3-3-3-... unfold. We'll see if the price starts to build a near trading bottom tomorrow or Friday.
Another Challenge to May Highs.
While most of the month of May has been in consolidation, the last couple of days looks like a rally with legs that will try to challenge the May highs. The consolidation looks like a triangle, and corrected less than in February, setting up a contracting channel. Another 3 to 5 weeks of rally.
10 yr Treasury Yield getting ready to move UP
From the May 2011 highs there has been a choppy decline in the yield. This follows a narrow channel decline from the April 2011 yield higs. The choppy decline could be an ending diagonal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08352253470
Chuck, July 2010
The possibility of an ED starting from August 2010 dawned on me this morning. I see this as a consistent theme for DAX and US equity markets. The FTSE and CAC would be more of a triangle or complex XYZ wave count out of the March 2009 lows. With so much QE 2 distoring the markets, e-wave rules may be violated.
Considering post ending diagonal behavior, the FTSE and CAC sould have been collapsing these past 3 weeks instead of choppy trading. I'll have to agree with you on one more rally. Need to disprove the "Sell in May, and go away". It's too obvious that fundamentals in Europe should cause a market meltdown NOW! Yup tease the traders for another 1-2 months. I'll be looking for the bears vs bulls indicator for a divergence with the markets.
I'm holding garage sales while people are in a buying mood.
Gsme Over - Crash Time
The SPX futures are down 12 points.
Not WMT!?
Yup WMT is also in an ending diagonal.
WAVE 4 (triangle) lasted from early 2000 to early 2009
WAVE 5 is in wave 5 of Wave 5. WAVE 5 has a very high probability of truncating. Any moment WMT could plunge from $56 to $46, where initial support can be found.
The end of WAVE 5 signals the end to a multi-decade rally. It will take WMT 5 to 10 years of correction before a buy and hold strategy becomes profitable again.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=wmt&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F21%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=57&y=10
Chart and Description of Ending Diagonal
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/05/20/Ending-Diagonal-In-Cocoa-Beginning-Of-Opportunity.aspx
Would the real Ending Diagonal Please Stand Up
There are several ending diagonal counts various members are considering.
One count also has the ending diagonal starting at the March 2011 lows. wave 4 has just completed. The trendlines are diverging as broadening top; however, wave 3 is smaller than wave 1, so wave 5 must be smaller than wave 3. This projects a top next week.
Another count is the ending diagonal started at the March 2011 lows. wave 1 ended at the early May 2011 highs. The rest of May has been corrective wave 2. The ending diagonal has the potential to develop in converging trendlines. This projects a top in late summer.
Both are equally valid counts, and no sinlge argument is more valid than the other. The cautious thing to do is play the first count. If a pullback from next week's top doesn't drop sharply, then the second count becomes the primary count.
Choppy, Sideways Trading Today.
My e-wave count is an ending diagonal that started from the March 2011 lows. wave a of wave 5 of Wave 5 started from the Tuesday lows. wave b will begin this morning and end late Friday or early Monday.
KenL, Good Alternate Count.
The topping process for a 2 year trend might need more time. If so, it will be very choppy.
The train is pulling out of the station.
I see wave 5 starting.
The price has risen 2x of the 2-3 day selloff channel, and has not hit fibonacci ratios.
Kenl,
I don't have the ability to draw graphics.
The best resource for learning formal e-wave analysis is www.elliottwave.com . General membership is free. There should be some information on all the basic wave patterns. There are also some videos on socionomics. Watch this video first to develop a perspective for e-waves.
Kenl, Everybody Do the Ending Diagonal.
There is a very good chance the wave 5 rally in the March 2011 ending diagonal falls short of reaching the top of wave 3 based on the observation wave 4 retraced more than wave 2.
wave 4 zigzag or 2x zigzag
The larger triangle pattern turned out to be a smaller one connecting zig to zag. wave 4 is pretty much done. Time to go UP. Caution is warranted as most western markets are in an ending diagonal which started in March of 2011.
Buy, No Sell, Uhhhh...
I can't believe the triangle lives!!! wave e of the triangle in INDU SPX adn TRAN appears to be an ending diagonal.
NDX is still in Wave 4; however, I'm replacing the triangle count with a double zigzag, AND the count off the March 2011 lows is now and ending diagonal.
INDU is the only US equity market not in an ending diagonal.
Buy for the pop later today and lasting through the rest of the week.
Buy the Open
Yup, It's a Triangle
Wave 4 done
Wave 5 into next week. April/May highs challeged.
The Deer is Still in the Headlights
Markets continue to consolidate.
The flat count is out. Wave 4 may now be a triangle or a complex wave. Wave 5 may have started in all the choppiness. This corrective wave is about the same duration as the April correction, so a clear wave count should appear in the next day.
Dear in the headlights.
Wave 4 down (starting on May 2) of WAVE 5 up (starting at March lows) may be a small flat, or Wave 5 up of WAVE 5 truncated. The sudden selloff from today's highs is a textbook motive wave. The markets could go either way.
US and European Market E-waves, 5 of 5
All the US and European equity markets are in a wave 5 of Wave 5 situation off the March 2011 lows.
INDU, NDX, DAX are in a regular motive Wave 5.
SPX RUT TRAN FTSE CAC are in Wave 5 Ending diagonals.
I'm looking for US and European markets to top in 5 to 8 days. With so many markets with a high probability of ending diagonals, wave 5 of 5 may even truncate. Nonetheless, the reversal will be sharp.
Idaho Trader
Yes, I'm making a bold call. My basis is the oil selloff from the 2007 highs around $150 ended at the $35 level. The chart pattern was a motive e-wave. No selloff or rally consists of a single motive wave. I'm labeling this motive wave WAVE A. Last 2 years oil has had a very choppy pattern despite retracing a significant amount of the motive wave selloff. I'm labeling this rally WAVE B. The nearly traced ending diagonal leads me to believe WAVE C, an expected motive wave, has started. Wave C's usually retrace all of Wave B. So my downside target is $35 with a good chance of going lower.
E-wave counts reflect investors collective views of the stock, bond, currency, or commodity being analyzed; however, it does not enumerate or measure the specific emotional rationales of an individual investor. In an election, ballots never explain why a person was elected, just who won.
Chuck, You're right.
I reread my post and I meant to say Wave 4 selloff ended at the February 2011 lows, and Wave 5 rally started at the February 2011 lows. That should make more sense.
WTIC E-Waves
The ending diagonal pattern was confirmed today. Oil eventually goes back to $35 per barrel.
It's the OR
My preferred count is now Wave 4 from Feb 2011 into March 2011 lows. Wave 5 is in, or has completed wave 4, and is going to challenge Last weeks highs.
The chart pattern that makes this my preferred count over a Giant Wave 4 Flat is over the last week of so the NDX formed a triangle or another overlapping pattern where a motive wave was expected.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=ndx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F5%2F2011&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
INDU also hit the 12600 target this morning and bounced higher. TRAN has retraced about half of last week's selloff today.
NDX INDU TRAN are forming a motive wave 5 of Wave 5.
SPX did not drop as much as I estimated.
SPX and RUT are in wave 5 of Wave 5 ENDING DIAGONAL off the Feb 2011 lows.
Giant Flat OR...
The past 3 months of counting e-waves has been challenging. Correctly expecting the markets would get choppy at the top has not helped. I again have 2 equally valid wave counts.
I've been considering a giant Wave 4 flat which started from the February 2011 high as my primary count. This week began wave c. INDU target at least 12000. SPX target at least 1280.
This weekend it occurred to me Wave 4 from the February 2011 highs could have ended at the March 2011 lows. Since then Wave 5 is half way through wave 4. INDU downside target 12600. SPX downside target 1330, and possibly an ending diagonal.
Either way, expect selling or choppy trading for another week.
SPX Lower Trendline Broken
The SPX rally off the April 2011 lows has broken its lower trendline. The e-wave count looks complete, yet 1 more little push higher can't be ruled out.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
VIX and B-B
The VIX closed at a 3 yr low today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78018786004
This week the Bulls Bears difference widened after a slight 2 weeks of closing from historically wide readings in early April 2011. I expect next week's reading to be wider than this week's reading. The readings in April 2011 are so extreme that any more widening would indicate an "all in" condition.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
This kind of complacency lasting for several weeks indicates a longer term top is forming, rather than a short pullback.
China's Shanghai Long E-Waves
Preferred Count:
From the top in 2007 to the bottom in 2008 is WAVE A.
From the bottom in 2008 to present is Wave e of WAVE B triangle. The price is near the point of the triangle. WAVE C selloff should be starting any day now.
Alternate Count:
From the top in 2007 to the bottom in 2008 is WAVE A.
From the bottom in 2008 to present is Wave b triangle of WAVE B zigzag. The price is near the point of the triangle. Wave c rally should start any day now.
Either way one looks at the wave counts, a BIG move is dead ahead. Buy straddle options.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS+Basic+Chart&t=5y
Flat Wave b of B in SPX looks done.
The lower trendline is about to be broken. Wait for the 1340 level for top confirmation.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Giant Flat Progress
Wave b of B the multiweek flat is nearly complete. The SPX chart shows strong support by the lower channel line out of April 18th lows. The upper channel line has hardly been tested except by a pop last week. Once the lower channel line is broken, SELL into Wave C of the Flat.
WTIC Oil E-waves
Since the February 2011 lows, the price looks to be tracing out an ending diagonal. The move off last week's lows is wave 5 of the ending diagonal. I think one little pullback and a test of new highs need to occur before the bear market rally WAVE B top is in. Target time is 2 weeks.
The RSI and MACD are making lower highs despite price making higher highs, 2 bearish divergences.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11221282462
It's a Giant FLAT
INDU, NDX, SPX, NYA all can be counted as a wave 4 flat from the February 2011 high to present. Wave b of the flat is near an end and allows for the length of wave b to be either longer or shorter than wave a. Look for Wave C to be motive. The media will be yelling "sell in May, and go away" only to have Wave 5 rally into the end of May.
I still am having difficulites counting RUT e-waves. Multiple degrees of 4-5 may be the correct count.
Still topping.
The markets are still in a longer term topping pattern. Recent highs in the RUT, NDX, TRAN, INDU, and SPX occurred at different times. The SPX may be forming a triangle while the NDX make a couple of wave 4-5 at different degrees.
SPX E-wave: Uh-Oh
A wave 2 flat may be forming off Tuesday's bottom, and finishing wave 5 of c ending diagonal. A 2-3% drop tomorrow is becoming much more probable.
SPX E-WAVES are 1-2's not 4-5's
This morning's drop is way too strong for wave 4-5 activity. I'm counting the choppiness the last 2 days as a wave 2.
SPX hit 1st Fib Number
SPX retraced the 33% fib ratio of the rally out of the March '11 lows. The larger picture is wave 3 of 3 probably unfolded today. Waves 4-5, of several degrees should find support around 1305, the 38.2% fibonacci, over the next 2-3 days.
It's a Topping Process
The last couple of days the markets have exhibited the choppiness I've been anticipating. I'm pretty sure a wave 3 of 3 off the March '11 lows has completed and some higher degree of wave 4-5 is completing. From this point in the SPX the first fibonacci downside target is the 1/3 retracement support at 1310.
INDU broke 4 day lower trend line.
I think the ending diagonal scenario has played out and concluded.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=4%2F7%2F2011&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0