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Yep, that's pretty powerful, and should influence the DOE appeal decision.
The words, "case in point", and "milestone", suggest that Fulton's success will launch a massive deployment of BFRE's technology in numerous plants in both China and the US!
So, all eyes will be on how well Fulton succeeds, and I for one (being a Chemical Engineer who worked in the petrochemical field) see a high probability of BFRE's technology as being very successful, both from a process and an economic standpoint!
Therefore, high attention is now on the DOE decision, and then on a fast construction, start-up, and evaluation of the Fulton plant. IMO, that will not include the addition of wood chips that was announced last year.
CTG seems very much committed to building many plants to convert waste materials into useful products using BFRE's technology. I really see them unwilling to wait too much longer for the DOE's final decision, before they and BFRE seek another way to come up with the 30MM$ to complete the deal, and begin construction at Fulton.
It could still be well over a year from now before the Chinese begin building their own plants, as I believe they will want to see how Fulton works out, both regarding its operation and its economics for producing ethanol.
I wouldn't bet on crude going up that high. By the time it goes above $70-80 or thereabouts, the US should be ready to spring up fracking production again, and if that increases as fast as we think it may, it should tend to keep WTI somewhere near $100 if not a little below, even as we begin shipping offshore( both oil and LNG)!
Well, JRG, if you had a chance to get 30 mill$ for free, wouldn't you be willing to wait quite a while for it? [:^) On the other hand, as indicated earlier, the Chinese may not be willing to wait until Sept., and could sweeten their lending pot to get the ball rolling. Time will tell, I guess!
Total debt, maybe timing: With DOE cash in hand soon, they may be able to begin preparing their construction plans and hiring, while the Chinese loan is still being arranged?
Richard Klann has told us the DOE has until Sept., I think, to make a final decision on Arnie's request for reversal, and they well could wait until then. If they do delay much longer, then the possibility could be the Chinese may want to get things moving, and be willing to provide the remaining financing themselves. However, the grant is much preferred, as it does not have to be repaid, so we could possibly have to wait a little longer! [:^(
RR$, I think you hit the football pressure issue right on the head! We have a car with a built-in tire pressure warning device, and when the temp first went below 30f last fall, that light went on and scared my wife! All tires had lost about 6-8 psi due only to the temp. drop!
What this has to do with DDCC I don't know, but it makes one wonder why there aren't more logical thinkers in the NFL, or those criticizing them???
That being the case, we can expect a pretty fast move to begin making and using this new container by a number of shippers!
This makes one wonder if there might be a problem finding a company to make the Transprop2's, if it is hard to find builders of rail cars with any spare capacity?
Encouraging report, ProfitScout. This could also result in more efficient fracking techniques, as drillers become more cost-conscious, that should result longer-term improvements in the whole oil and gas industries, All this implies even more value for our improved shipping containers!
The only PR that can make a real(positive) difference is that the DOE has decided to complete their original grant.
That should result in a quick completion of the agreements with China Three Gorges and the EXIM Bank of China!
Here is how I understand things, based on what has been reported so far, and a little feedback from company personnel:
Nothing will happen until the funding is 100% in place. This will either require a change of mind by the DOE, or if they don't, then another source for the remaining 30 million( approximately) will have to be secured. My guess is, if it comes to that, there could possibly be a revision in the present deals with the two Chinese companies to provide this, although I do NOT have any insight into this possibility.( purely speculation on my part).
I still believe the DOE will, in the end, come through, since they know now the importance of their grant as it relates to future cooperation between the US and Chinese companies. If things work out successfully, as I fully expect they will, this can also help minimize unfavorable memories of earlier DOE failures funding renewable energy ventures.
I think so too! Lots of practical, creative thinking went into this new design. We may have to wait a bit longer for implementation now, until the oil price settles out to where drillers are comfortable planning future expansions.
Ultimately, I believe the US will benefit from this, as we increase oil and LNG exports (assuming prices haven't dropped too far after leveling off).
I think geothermal power could have a strong future, if it can be secured/harnessed properly, and is shown to flow for many years/decades from one source. That remains to be proven. However, heat energy is limited in what it can provide( mainly electrical power).
Sucrose, on the other hand, whether produced from sugar cane, corn or multiple cellulosic sources,can be converted into ethanol and a number of other chemicals, according to need and economics.
I say this to be sure BFRE investors do not worry about possible coming improvements in geothermal capacity. Geothermal power is no threat to the huge potential of producing ethanol, et.al., from cellulosic feedstocks.
Keep in mind the total financing requires the remainder the DOE original grant amount, part of which was stopped over a year ago. While we think the DOE will reverse that last decision, it hasn't happened yet, and I don't think the Chinese deals will begin until Arnie's appeal to the DOE has actually been approved.
This change of mind can be a big advantage for the DOE's reputation, now that BFRE is otherwise ready to begin multiple plant construction, all of which should eliminate a lot of the negatives suffered by the DOE after financing several renewable energy projects that went bust! I believe the DOE recognizes this too, and that it is in their best interest to reverse their decision to cut the grant amount.
The above argument assumes the BFRE process and management will be successful, which I for one believe will happen, as a Chemical Engineer from the petrochemical industry, who has studied the concentrated acid hydrolysis process for extracting sucrose from cellulosic raw materials. ( ethanol and a number of other products are easily converted from the sucrose using well-establish down-stream processes).
Thanks for this optimistic report on fracking, ProfitScout. As our economy continues to expand, and Europe resolves their deflation and curency issues, the price of oil should stabilize so that drillers can plan their future production.
I think the loan is dependent on the DOE grant, in which case we may need to hear first if the DOE reverses its earlier decision to stop further payments.
If the DOE does decide to continue its original grant, I think we will see an explosion of buying!
No, she wasn't specific, but we have a pretty fair idea of possible deals involving frack sand and barite, etc. She did, however, sound very positive for this being the year things will start rolling!
Tricia just replied to my request regarding the Transprop2, saying a number of potential customers have already seen and like the Transprop2. However, much negotiation and agreements are needed before proper announcements can be made. She also referred to other deals still in the works.
So, lets be patient and expect the best in due time.
Interesting, ProfitScout.
Here is wishing everyone a very merry Christmas.
Gladiator, did the DOE give you any encouragement at all, regarding how they are processing Arnie's appeal?
I still say the Chinese are essentially
ready to go: The most powerful news we could hear now is the DOE's reversal of their decision to not complete the grant!
My guess is, we are looking at maybe a few weeks to resolve or replace the remaing DOE grant funds, then maybe 12-15 months to get Fulton built and proven out, before they are likely to begin building more plants.
Of course, once the grant is resolved, the BFRE price should go to many times its current level. Also, BFRE would then morph into a growth company, selling at fairly high multiples, as other nations see the potential of the BFRE process for ethanol and other chemicals available from their unique cellulosic process.
The last possibility is to work its way down to a cent, before starting a long ascent! [:^)
Or, it could even go, "OH POOH" to TWO, and then, SOAR EVERMORE![:?)
Could possibly bounce off the floor at four, and still resume its climb on time. [:?)
The way I understand it, the loan from EXIM Bank is almost a sure thing, once the remaining $30M grant is resolved with the DOE. So, the DOE is where our attention should be focused now. Pres. Klann appealed the DOE decision nearly a year ago now, so they have had plenty of time to consider reversing their decision.
I hope they will be made aware of DDCC's new Translock2 system, and consider ways to encourage fast implementation!
The only news of real importance is what the DOE decides on Arnie's appeal. If they reiterate their year-ago denial on the final amount, then the price could be hit rather hard. If they agree to honor their original amount, watch the buying pour in!
Again, if they DO deny further funding, I don't think that means the end of BFRE. I sense this is now so important in China that other means of supplying the final 30MM$ will be sought and found!
Even after the financing all comes together and the stock surges, we are looking at a year or more to complete the Fulton plant ( original design, I think, without the wood chips plant), and then a few months to maximize its production, and smooth out all the wrinkles.
It is possible they may begin constructing additional plants at almost the same time, but that would mean they are willing to assume no changes will be required as they ramp up production rates at Fulton.
However, once the process is proven for high volume production, and the expected low production costs verified, there should be no restrictions on pushing ahead with multiple plants in the US and China.
Wouldn't it be exciting to see a Gov. grant given to DDCC to build hundreds of their new Transprop2 containers?
This was added some months ago to attract European users of wood chips, in order to make the Fulton plant more attractive to lenders( increased revenues). It would mean a separate plant to prepare the chips, and I think would also reduce ethanol production at the main ethanol plant.
I really think think this is no longer needed, since financing is already achieved, except for that last piece of the DOE grant, which is being appealed.
My conclusion: There no longer needs to be a wood chip plant, and I expect some announcement on that once all financing is secured.
I contacted the company yesterday to ask what they knew about the appeal to the DOE. I will report what they have to say, which I presume will come from Richard Klann? I am pretty sure they made the appeal soon after the DOE reneged on their original promise, which has been nearly two years now, I think?
And, follow what the DOE says about the grant to BFRE! Once that is re-granted, the BFRE vehicle will be running on pure ethanol( used in racing cars for its superior combustion energy)!
Vortmax, I do talk with the company, but the near-certainty of resolving the DOE grant, or something to replace it, is my own conclusion, and not specifically from BFRE.
And I will simply repeat what I have mentioned a couple places now: This deal WILL move forward, and be financed fully from whatever sources are necessary.
My opinion, for what it's worth, is that both Chinese companies, and political leaders, are very serious about this partnership, and will likely be willing to look at alternative arrangements, should the DOE decide against completing their original grant amount. There is just too much now at stake in their future, to allow this to stop their plans for cellulosic ethanol in aiding their growth in fuels and a cleaner environment.
I think they have closely studied BFRE's Izumi pilot plant experience, and other information reported on the Bluefire website, and reached the conclusion that bluefire's concentrated acid hydrolysis technology is superior to other processes using enzymes to extract the sucrose from organic raw materials. For a nation that is fast-becoming the largest world economy, why wouldn't they want to use the best technologies available, as well as cooperate with American businesses whenever their interests come together?
I see that as great wisdom on their part, and fully expect success for this business adventure.
Several years ago BFRE had an agreement with Waste Management to build ethanol plants on or near some of their larger landfill sites. Not sure if that agreement is still the plan or not, now that the Chinese are partnering with BFRE?
It has been nearly two years now since the DOE reneged on the rest of their grant, and I believe Klann began an appeal shortly after that happened. So, the time could now be months, rather than years, for a final decision.