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Foot, this site is good too. This is where I get Oil and Gold futures as well.
http://www.ino.com/
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 116.22 -0.1 -0.09
Natural Gas 10.841 +0.064 +0.59
Corn 613.5 -3.75 -0.61
Soybeans 1304.5 +33.5 +2.57
30yr Bond 116.234375 -0.90625 -0.78
10yr Note 114.96875 -0.765625 -0.67
NY Gold 865.1 +7.1 +0.83
NY Silver 16.725 +0.26 +1.58
Emini S&P 1408.25 -7.5 -0.53
Emini Nasdaq 1979.75 -10.5 -0.53
Emini Dow 13008 -52 -0.40
Foot, Black hanging man, and shooting stars.
I know you don't read posts unless addressed to you since you're a busy guy. Anyhow, I sent this post to "Be" about a top being in place. Not a candle stick expert by any means, but they look like those formations described. BTW - is using the word Black hanging man PC? LOL... It just sounds funny saying it out loud. Sharpton would be on my butt if he heard it, probably sue me for some sort of slander.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28998956
Yeah those shooting stars don't look to pretty. Looks like we hit resistance on the Daily for most of the major indexes. I'm in cash and closed a lot of longs this week starting with some before the FOMC meeting, some more on the spike on Thursday and again even more today in the morning when we started to run up.
Shooting Star defined - A single day pattern that can appear in an uptrend. It opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near its open. It looks just like the Inverted Hammer except that it is bearish.
Only one not shooting is NDX, but it looks like a black hanging man.
Black Hanging man defined - The Hanging Man formation shows the price goes much lower than the open then closes near the opening price. This could mean that many longs have positions that they are attempting to sell. Ideally, a black real body Hanging Man with a lower open the following day could be a bearish signal for the days ahead.
I'm not a candlestick expert but I've seen these formations in the past and they have not been good. If someone has a comment /thoughts on these formations please feel free to chime in.
$USD up and Crude UP? Strange. Crude isn't even up that high but DCR is getting clobbered.
OT: Interesting Gleno,
Do you still have a home, land out there? It's insane, around Peshastin, Leavenworth, and Wenatchee the cost of raw land, no well, no septic tank, and possibly no access road.
Yeah it's weird there's no mosquitoes that I've seen in Seattle, but when I was in Leavenworth this past weekend I was getting bitten alive, it reminded me of the mid-atlantic and the SE minus the humidity. (Gnats, mosquitoes and sometimes biting flies.)
In Leavenworth a 2br condo is like $500K.
Gleno,
I've heard of that Lake but I haven't been there. May be I will check it out before it gets too hot. I was over at Lake Wenatchee and Leavenworth last weekend rock climbing.
There are other places that I need to checkout but there seems like there isn't enough time. Mt. Hood is on my list for climbing, as well as Rainer and the other 3 active volcanoes LOL... Those are the highest points in the cascades.
Speaking of Momo... What do you thinking of MO? (The spinoff of Phillip Morris, everything else but the cigarettes).
It's been getting hammered lately, I'm thinking 18.50ish would be a good time to be a ltbh? or is this catching a falling knife? Any opinions would be appreciated.
Foot, interesting charts on NDX and SPX. I'm not sure if this is a bull trap or not on the NDX.
Sold most of my long positions yesterday AM and the other 1/2 around Noon today. Sitting this one out trying to figure out which way we're headed.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28959036
As Scam would say Coast to Coast. On the 60mins on most indexes we've tagged both upper and lower BB. Tomorrow will be a tell all day for the bulls. I still think we've hit major resistance. I've been unwinding long positions the past couple of days. Isn't tomorrow suppose to be the exact opposite of FOMC announcement day? So if we close down today then that means up tomorrow? (Edit Probably a weak last gasp up like someone drowning type scenario.)
"here is scanman's post
Hi Ample - There really isn't much new under the sun: if you've survived trading the Bubble & the Crash, you've pretty much seen it all. I've covered the Fed Day/After in exhaustive detail in the past, so I'll give a minimal summary. Immediately after the FOMC announcement, there is a spike, followed by a reversal of the spike, and then eventually a reversal of the reversal. The third leg of the pattern has been problematic of late. The Day After pattern stipulates that whichever direction the market closes on Fed Day, it will close in the opposite direction on the following day. Obviously, these are called "patterns" because they happen more often than not, but then they don't happen every time. Caveat emptor! Enjoy"
Foot I was thinking of grabbing some DCRs this morning when it went back down to $3.75-$3.80 but I changed my mind. That's the million dollar question of what Oil will do after the FOMC announcement. But, Gold, Commodities, Oil down right now.
2x proshares: smn (inv. basic materials), dcr (2x inverse Nynex crude), dzz 2x (inv. Gold Contracts) doing well today.
Fed Gov. Trying to pull out all the stops.
Treasury Department says it will deposit the first 800,000 rebates - five days earlier than expected - in effort to boost economy.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/24/pf/taxes/Stimulus_checks/index.htm?section=money_latest
Gleno, if MSFT's earnings are good, we'll probably hit 1960 tomorrow and then sell before the fed, go back down to test 1900 and if it holds then an extension to 2010?
May be I am too bullish but as I told foot a few days ago, I see all this money being pumped in, the rebate checks are going to reach people May2, I will get mine may 9. It is based on the last 2 digits of your SS#. Also, End of Month Ramp 401K deposits, best time to buy stocks, and finally USD is starting to rally/commodities going down and that is good for the markets right?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28769082
2xer, what if this is an Inverse H+S on the Weekly too? I'm thinking 1960 will be tough resistance at the 200ma, but what if... May be we can extend to 2010 if the Inverse H+S pattern plays out on the weekly?
NDX Daily 200 ma tough resistance at ~1960
Here is a weekly chart I posted to foot on 4/18:
We are currently above the 200ema.
$compq just broke 2/1/08's high at 2419.23 EOM.
Foot, Inverse H+S on the 60min still in play.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28730898
All we need is some volume.
Dollar poking above the 50day. (Back to 75?)
Gold down going down to $800, Oil Down going back to 107? DZZ and DCR up.
Fox, yeah it's starting to look more like an inverted H+S on the 60. Let's see if the boys can get it past QQQQ 47.10 or $NDX 1914 before the close. I have a feeling they will park it right around the neckline just to keep us guessing.
OT - Yup I agree. He's going to drive this country into a depression if he raises taxes like he's planning. As other people have already said who raises taxes in a recession or soon to be recession?
In addition what bills or what has he done that makes him a fit candidate? I'm a Rep. but if it was between Hillary and Obama I'd pick Hillary. Obama also feels like a con-artist in my book playing the psychology/emotions of the impressionable youth with his "yes we can" attitude and no substance (experience or policies). All people here is we're going to change, make a difference, but a difference of what? He was sworn in on 1/2005, and has been a senator for what, ~1-1.5 year. The last year he's been doing nothing but campaigning so he sure hasn't been doing anything regarding being a Senator.
Fox, yeah it's hard to tell for me right now, I'm not a 5-15/30minute chart type guy. I tend to hold longer term.
Anyhow, it looks like a possible inverse H+S shaping up on the 60min charts for the QQQQ, NDX, COMPx, etc. If this shapes up and we hit the neckline of say 47.10, the extension could be up to 48.20 maybe?
I wonder if there's going to be buying into the close before AAPL earnings.
Gleno, I see the double top forming, but... I have a slightly long bias. Remember End of Month and 4/23 being the start of the best time to buy. (Other stuff in the works too such as huge money pump the last 3 days.)
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOut.asp
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28633097
If the $NDX or $COMPQ doesn't move higher on the 60min charts, this could be a double top in the works.
Foot, although after reading another article it looks like you can trade DCR (Short OIL contracts) til June 25, 2008.
"The last day of trading for UCR and DCR will be June 25, 2008.
On July 3rd, a final distribution payment will be made to the UCR and DCR shareholders of record as of June 30th based on the underlying value of the Up and Down MacroShares Trusts. The underlying value of the trusts will be determined based on the June 25th closing price of the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract for August."
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080417/20080417006264.html?.v=1
Yeah, I was actually starring at your oil charts. I still wouldn't want to touch oil until I see it start to correct a bit.
The only true short oil contracts play that I know of and can find after searching for a bit is DCR. It's not leveraged 2x, it only 1 to 1. I am sure more short oil/crude contracts (ETNs) will come about as oil starts dropping.
But look what happened to it. "The record-breaking rally in crude oil has forced the liquidation of a pair of interconnected exchange-traded products linked to futures prices, but the backers are already preparing new funds to replace them."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oils-surge-taps-out-two/story.aspx?guid=%7BBBA804B8%2D513B%2D4A1C%2D875D%2DD424DCB1ED4C%7D&siteid=yhoof
BTW I agree that the problem with DIG and DUG the 2x proshares is it carries a lot of nat gas/oil companies that tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index. So who knows, DIG may actually do much better because the cost per crude barrel is less which means more refining profits?
Top 10 holdings for DIG:
EXXON MOBIL CORP COM STK 27.25%
CHEVRON CORP COM STK 10.34%
SCHLUMBERGER COM USD0.01 6.85%
CONOCOPHILLIPS COM STK 6.55%
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 3.75%
TRANSOCEAN INC. (NEW) COM 2.70%
DEVON ENERGY CORP(NEW) 2.67%
APACHE CORP COM STK 2.48%
HALLIBURTON CO COM STK 2.25%
MARATHON OIL CORP COM STK 1.88%
Foot, coincidence would be the $NAUD following the same March-May 2007 pattern. What if we go back down to test the 50MA and then turn back up during the next Bradley turn date negating the sell in May and go away.
Foot LOL... I was actually thinking about getting another Plasma TV to help the economy out. Right now I have a dinky 23" LCD HDTV/Monitor. It was my old computer monitor that my wife and I are watching TV on.
When I moved from DC to Seattle I gave up my 42" Plasma to my dad. It wasn't worth it to move it. My buddy moved from MD to FL and the movers broke his 52" Plasma screen. (A big splitter crack down the middle.) Moving companies pay by the pound for the moving insurance and he didn't think to get extra insurance, I think the TV weighed 100lbs, so he got $60 since it's typical for moving companies to give .60/lb.
The Plasma/LCDs were so expensive 2 1/2 years ago. I think I got mine for $2500. Now you can get even better ones (better resolution), USB inputs where you can stick a thumb drive and show slide show pictures and play mp3s for $1000-1200. They also have monitors (Sharp and sony) with ethernet/network connections so you can get internet connection and video.
NM... Thanks Eom.
Gleno what ETFs are you looking for specifically?
2x or regular etfs?
http://www.proshares.com/funds
http://www.ishares.com/product_info/fund/index.htm
Not sure if that helps.
Foot, yeah, I think we need to reset/consolidate. Most if not all of the indexes have hit major resistance. It's been a good run for the longs this past week. I closed out some of my long positions. But, remember Bradley turn date on 4/27, Best day to buy a stock starting on the 23rd of every month (401K deposits), and people will start receiving the Fed stimulus rebate checks as soon as May 2!
I will get mine 5/9. Woohoo!
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080317/COL07/80317039/0/BUSINESS06
NM, Just wondering, how do you determine the Pivot Point price for each Monthly OE?
Yeah I'm still long here. But hmm... Makes you wonder what next? It appears that all the indicies have hit pretty tough resistance on the 200ema whether daily or weekly.
DAILY:
WEEKLY:
Foot, Yen is out of the bottom BB. Should that be of concern?
Wamu... Wow, why bother with any dividend? 1cents? Might as well try to shore up the balance sheets and give none.
In December 2007, they changed the dividend rate from 56cents a quarter to 15cents. Now 15 to 1cents.
I'd be pissed too if I bought in at $45 and now my stock is worth $10.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/15/news/companies/wamu_earnings/index.htm?section=money_latest
Foot, what's UP with the stinky $SOX? Why are they up for the past couple days and leading?
Yeah I looked at it early this morning. That's just far-out! Is today the highest it's ever been?
Foot,
Do or die time for the Comp/Nas. I wonder if it bounces off support for a continuation of the Interim term up.
No prob. If I come across it, I'll let you know. Ended up just watching gold for now and being patient trying decide where a good entry would be. I'm not so sure I want to short gold for the short/intermediate term. I may look for a dip to buy some instead and ltbh.
Thanks, I'll look into those too. One thing I'm not thrilled about on the 2x gold ETNs is volume, since they are relatively new. It is like DIG/DUG 2x oil&gas long/short where volume was about 100k-150k/day until people knew more about it. It's not a big deal if you're LTBH but if you're going in and out it can be a problem. BTW - I didn't short gold the other day. I decided to be patient, see what happens and follow it a bit more.
Blasher,
thanks for the link.
Foot, I have read on other takes that between March - June it's traditionally a weak time/season for Gold. So I am trying to decide whether to short it. Plus the selling of 400 tons of Gold by the IMF. But this is just a really short-term trade. Also, this GLD chart shows the rejection at the 50EMA.
I'm pretty sure Gold will bounce back/bottom at the 200EMA, $825 because the dollar just keeps on losing value, and Bernanke is probably going to cut another 25bp, etc.
Deutsche bank just came out with the 2x ETNs. DZZ for 2x ultra short gold and DGP 2x Ultra long Gold. Although I think I need to do more research. I'm not sure what an ETN is. Is that similiar to an ETF?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080228/20080228005504.html?.v=2
“We are thrilled to issue three ETNs which will allow investors a simple way to take a leveraged or short view on the price of gold,” said Kevin Rich, Managing Director in Deutsche Bank’s Global Markets Investment Products group. “We are committed to creating innovative commodity investment products for all investors.