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Yes, this sounds more and more like a continuation of AMD's policy of partnering with others. While the inability to fund expansion as rapidly as needed is probably at the heart of the AMD decision, I like seeing AMD doing these sorts of deals, particularly if they work out. As I keep harping about, there is going to be compression in the PC/home electronics/wireless communications areas and companies are going to have to look to others for technology/resources they don’t have.
If AMD shows itself to be a good partner through these sorts of deals it will grease the skids for later deals. No one wants to partner with an INTC since everyone looks at INTC as a raptor. Everyone will be looking for win/win deals.
yes, clearly the trend is to bring critical functions as close to the processor as possible, particularly things that improve latency. I wonder how much longer it will be before we start seeing full performance GPUs incorporated into the processor?
Still the chipset isn't going away any time soon, particularly the SouthBridge with its' interface to PCIe. The NorthBridge, on the other hand, seems ripe for extinction as MCs inevitably move to the processor.
A lot of stuff happened while I was gone today.
I think from a purely SIS point of view the reason they don't like having the memory controller on the processor is that it reduces the complexity on the chip side and leaves less room for differentiation and lowers the prices they can charge.
Yeah, the news is at least 6 months old. Still it shows that Opterons are capable of taking on mainframe duties, something the Itanium people continue to think impossible. The movement to replace mainframes with Opterons will become more and more apparent as the number of processors packaged together increases over the next couple of years.
Like you said, a slow day.
AMD's Opteron to replace Sabres Mainframe.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687810&tid=amd&sid=4687...
It does seem like the semi market is being divided into those doing well and those not. It seems like a good part of the semi manufactures followed the usual boom/bust cycle, but another significant part resisted the urge to over capitalize and those guys are doing just fine.
On another subject it looks like the shift to blocks of manufactures/users with common interests is well under way. Take for instance the IBM/SONY/Toshiba group or IBM/Chartered/AMD grouping. Maybe Hector has been taking lessons from Sam and that's what the Macronix deal is about.
In any case I've been waiting for this to happen for awhile. It's probably only a matter of time before we see the consumer electronics guys pairing up with the PC guys in creative ways. When the music stops there are going to be fewer players in both the PC and consumer electronics areas, and alliances that cross over technology boundaries are going to be critical.
I've said many times I would like to see AMD doing something with SONY, but that does not look like it's going to happen. AMD definitely needs to hook up with one of the big consumer electronics guys. In 5 years time PCs will be very different from what they are today. The PC, in its' beige box, is going away but the smart processor is going into virtually everything and be at the center of the information network that the consumer electronics and PC markets are merging into.
Yes, it really is strange. Other than the Saifun connection I don't see much in the way of synergies. Maybe it's something like the IBM/AMD situation with Macronix using AMD's patents/knowledge about mirrored bit? If so, this would seem to indicate that other flash producers think AMD is on the right track.
There is a shakeout going on in the NOR flash area. With the differences between NAND and NOR disappearing it's going to be more difficult for smaller producers to compete with the behemoths. It could also be a way for both AMD and Macronix to reduce their R&D costs and at the same time provide something of a supply cushion much the way the IBM/Chartered/AMD arrangement will increase supply and cover peak demand spikes.
Very low volume, probably going to be this way until after the holidays. Volume may pick up some on Friday, but after that it's going to be dead as Jacob Marley. AMD is just kind of folloing the SOXX around like a lost puppy.
Another short squeeze from here is a rather remote possibility, at least until there's something to get the hype going again.
Personally, while I see AMD making about $.30 this q I think that expectation is pretty well included in the price. Certainly I don't think the average AMD stock holder will see this as a blow-out. The stock could get into the sub $30 range with the above earnings, but that would take a good CC and some news. Anything much above $.30 in Eps seems optimistic.
Yeah, the board has been pretty quite lately. The INTC ites are still out there, all you have to do is rattle their cage a little and they start posting.
It almost sounds funny saying things are slowing down, but we should have a few AMD announcements before Y/E. I would like to hear something about how the q is going but that sort of information is worth money so we'll probably get none of it.
Anyway, I don't expect much price movement until the holidays are over, at the earliest.
Thanks, I bookmark the message.
Thanks for the comments. I still use my HP720C occasionally, but it does seem like the cartridges come with less ink and cost a ton. Even at Wallmart a color cartridge is like $35. I'll definitely look at Cannon when the 720 dies. I refill the black, but the color refills just don't work for me.
Our investment times roughly parallel though I had taken a few forays into AMD a couple of times prior to 1998 when I started shifting more of my investment out of INTC and into AMD.
It wouldn't surprise me if in a couple of years AMD is doing close to 90% of its business outside the U.S.. The definitions of developing and developed nations are going to be changing radically. Unless productivity increases faster in the U.S. than it has lately the U.S. is going to have to make some unwelcomed life style adjustments as the rest of the world demands more of this planet's limited resources.
Companies that make trains and subways and green energy sources are going to look better as time goes on.
Well, I'm not completely in AMD, but it does represent the highest % of my equity portfolio I've ever had in one stock. Of course that's the reason I'm here all the time, I don't want to get broad sided by anything. Glad to hear your doing so well, I'm not doing too badly either.
Bought back the relatively small amount of shares I sold last week this morning. AMD really is at the center of a maelstrom engulfing the PC business. There's just too much positive confusion to be out of AMD right now.
PC market to double by 2010.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=581&e=1&u=/nm/20041214/tc_nm/tech_pcs_dc
INTC threatens the Inquirer
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=20213
IDC gets server sales data from server vendors. Duh.
You really think so? Can't you see things outside the box that raise flags . Aren't there things that just don't seen to jibe. Things such as the continued decline in HPQ's consulting business, the low profitability on computer hardware, the loss of market share, the constant drumbeat of analysts saying HPQ needs to get rid of the hardware business.
If you only listen to HPQ all you will get is that things are fine until the day HPQ decides to do a 180. As an investor one has to be suspicious about everything. Particularly, management serving statements.
Well I'm not the only one speculating about HPQ. Going back even before the merger of CPQ there has be a constant whirlwind of comment about HPQ's ability to manage its' computer business. Carley opted to make the computer side of things bigger in an attempt to improve profitability while IBM has chosen to retain only those parts of the hardware business that it has a clear and dominant position in.
Clearly, the computer side of things, particularly non-printer hardware, are not adding to the bottom line in a worthwhile way. HPQ has some larger decisions to make besides whether or not to jettison Itanium. The move to commodity servers would eliminate a lot of overhead and move the business model a lot closer to Dell's. The problem is that complications surrounding "Big Iron" is what gives rise to the profitable side of HPQ's consulting business. Trying to get users to spend the same amounts on support for commodity servers might prove a trick.
Anyway you look at it AMD is at the center of this maelstrom. Can you imagine how cozy things would still be if AMD hadn't become such a disruptive force. You have got to love it.
REally, where does IDC get their numbers from?
It's amazing the way that companies are still falling for that old pull the football out from Charlie Brown routine. Without knowing any of the conditions surrounding the deal it's impossible to say much.
No doubt Sony is also in the deal with Toshiba they're probably planning on using Itaniums in Play Station 4.
Interesting, isn't Toshiba a partner with Sony and IBM in the cell developement?
Sorry but I got rid of the last of the INTC shares close to 4 years ago. Glad to see you guys showing up, things were getting very slow on the board.
Yeah, I suppose HPQ had to stop making all those work stations because the chips were needed in servers. It sounds more like the case of the incredible disappearing market. Have I told you how little faith I have in INTC numbers and numbers parroted by others using INTC data? Frankly, it sounds like Fudd’s averring that INTC flash really does make money or that AMD has a demand problem and INTC really needs all that capacity despite having world class manufacturing capabilities. Don't these things cause your nasal hairs to curl up. Call me suspicious, but frankly my dear...
In any case that Itanium market, whatever it is, has little effect on AMD I want to see what the second part of the article has to say.
It's amazing the way all these decisions made so many years ago are now bearing poisoned fruit. Strange is that law of unintended consequences. I doubt that anyone at HP or INTC had any inkling of the pandemonium the decision to develop the Itanium would bring to their businesses. What was even more ironic is the way both companies clung on to Itanium even as the irrelevance of the design became apparent. Even today while HPQ has indicated some nascent awareness of the Itanium problems INTC still blithely trots down the path towards Armageddon.
Then there's the P4. Was there ever a better buggy whip? Talk about a product for yesterday's market that was it. It's funny how mantras get started; well it worked last time, let's do it again. The trouble was that hot brick wall ahead. Again, it seems apparent, from the lack of competition, that INTC spent a very long time trying to put that square peg in the round hole before finally giving up. Never one to cut its losses INTC pressed on far longer than it should have, and I suspect only went to the Israelis out of desperation. Again another bofo performance, but at least this time HPQ wasn't along for the ride. God how does such incompetent management stay in command?
Things have gotten so bad that even Dell is now starting to say good things about AMD. Boy if there ever was an indicator flashing in red neon that has got to be it. The real problem is that solutions don't turn on a dime and the results of these bad decisions, made so long ago, will haunt both INTC and HPQ for a very long time, maybe forever.
Well as they say, “that's the way the cookie crumbles”, the old devolve making way for the new.
It looks like the rumors of 90nm shortages have hit your distributors also. What's it going to be like when the E0 steppings start to show up? I sure hope AMD is shifting production to 90nm as fas as possible.
Actually, I think the point of the article is that HPQ is in the process of killing their mainframe business off. Not through intention but through neglect.
Itanium never was going to be the answer to IBM for HP, so HPQ was screwed anyway. While Opteron is definitely a Xeon competitor, for the time being, give it a couple of more years and you will see it taking on a lot more tasks that mainframes have traditionally done. 2 years from now 32 and 64 Opteron processor solutions will be common.
I don't know where that will leave Itanium, but it looks like IBM will have the high-end to itself soon while AMD and INTC fight for a growing AMD64 market. The people that this sea change will affect most will be the Suns, Dells, and of course HPs. IBM is going to laugh all the way to the bank.
Hp screw-ups. 2 part, tomorrow has to be Itanium.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=20208
Sounds like a good, relatively low cost, solution. The way things are now no one wants to spend huge amounts of money on systems that may soon be out of date. Still what's out there is compelling enough that the little boy in me says you need that new toy. I've seen a few projector units, and the specs,, in general, don't really indicate how good the systems are. Of course as in any techi geer the skys the limit as to what you can pay if you're so inclined.
I'm not sure it's off topic, more and more processors are going to be going into media center PC's. What graphics card are you using? How's the fan noise/heat from the unit? Are you going from XGA to SVGA? If so how does the compression look.
The way your using the projector seems to be the way most people are. I can't figure out why the projector lamps cost so much, that seems to be the main draw back I've heard of. Not many products have a part that costs a third, or more, of the new product cost and needs to be replaced relatively frequently. I take it your also going to use the unit in your business work?
Nice present, what do you have it hooked up to? How do you plan to use it, just DVDs and HDTV?
That's a good point. After all we're all lurkers when not posting.
Just went back for the last 6 days and we averaged 86 posts a day. I didn't bother to see how many individuals posted or how many posts each person made, but lets assume the average posts per day is 4, which is probably low. Then we had about 20 posters on average each day. Now if every poster read all the other posts that would be 82 posts times 20 people or about 1600 reads. At 200 reads per post that would be 17200 total reads (200*86) less the reads by posters (16000) or 15200 reads by non posters. So there are still about 10 persons reading for each person posting, assuming the lurkers read all posts.
Yahoo probably doesn't have anything to worry about.
Read/write ratio.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20850585
iHub's equipment sees far higher, but tolerable, utilization but it's dealing with a LOT more traffic. We do a few thousand inserts per day. iHub does more like 11k. Which is still a very rare occurrence in the database sense because it's doing several million reads while doing just thousands of inserts.
Me...
So we have about 200 lurkers for each poster?
For me the Internet supplies 2 kinds of information, one is the soft to hard stuff you find at places like Anandtech, the Register, the Inquirer, EE Times, etc. The other is the boards that try to make sense out of soft/hard information.
Anyone that was investing back in the 60s/70s remembers the extreme difficulty in finding relevant/timely data about companies. The internet, and in particular these boards have gone a long way in leveling the playing field between those with close information and the typical investor. While you will never find what would be considered insider information on the boards, there are enough posters with varied backgrounds that someone will come up with a cogent explanation about most everything that happens relative to AMD. In short, what we lack in insider information we make up for in numbers, varied backgrounds and thoughtful analysis. As always though, in the end, it is up to the individual investor to determine what is right and what is wrong.
Well, I'm as in the dark as anyone. All I was saying is that it's probably a techi thing and not something financial. One could speculate on a number of things being the possible source of the announcement, but I doubt if any of them would significantly move the stock. That will require good earnings. Heck from the run up and given AMD's rather spotty history of earnings one could easily make a case that good earnings are already built into the price. The huge price increase we just went through was an aberration, don't let your expectations get ahead of reality. From here earnings will be the nitro that propels stock gains.
In any case Monday is tomorrow.
Whoa there. I doubt if 1% of possible AMD investors even know about this Monday IBM/AMD announcement. Further it probably has to do with IBM's liquid optics or stretched SOI, and maybe something about the expected IBM blade servers.
In any case, if it had anything to do with a merger why would they be announcing it at a "major chip industry scientific conference--the International Electron Devices Meeting--in San Francisco on Dec"?
Just some techi stuff in all probability. Maybe significant, but probably something that will get lost to the uninformed.
Thanks, I missed the first post, or I can't remember it. Personally I think the stock got ahead of itself a little and the big boys started covering, culminating in the big run up on Monday. Tuesday the big boys established new short positions ensuring that the market would drop. Combined with the overbought feelings, the macro news and the piling on effect AMD was going down. It should be interesting to see if the number of shorts fell in the last period. My feeling is that I doubt it, they may have even increased.
Mani's post correlated well with my own feelings so I sold some of my shares the next morning, not much, but enough to keep things interesting. Basically AMD remains volatile and very subject to whichever way the wind is blowing. Any sort of news could turn the stock, one way or the other, on a dime. Again, I see the risks of being out of AMD as more than being in.
Once the market finds a new range for AMD I'll buy back, or maybe sooner?
Yeah, I'm just waiting too. Macro effects are roiling the markets too. Also, it looks like someone decided to unload before the weekend. With no upward pressure, down looks like it wins, sort of by default. The market will probably spend some time groping around while it looks for a new trading range. The stock got a little ahead of itself, but fundamentals should keep it from falling too far. But then that's what I thought earlier in the year when we revisited the low teens. Anyway, there doesn't appear to be a rush to get back in.
It looks like volume has fallen off a cliff. Probably near bottom, but also no need to rush back in either. It doesn't look like we'll be seeing the sort of volume needed to get the puppy moving again today so a period of base building is probably in order.
Incidentally, did anyone notice how prescient Mani’s (SI moderator) call was. One might write this off to luck, but this isn't the first time he has been spot on. He's getting to be a better indicator than Jerry. It would be nice if he would explain his reasoning for the drop. I've got my reasons, but I would never sell all my AMD, I've been wrong too many times. Still, Mani gets his Avokudos for a well-timed call.
Whatever happened to BTX? From Yahoo. Read the whole thing, it's good. Looks like another INTC fiasco.
http://www.itweek.co.uk/comment/1159992
I recently looked at a BTX evaluation box from Intel, and can now reveal why it's taken so long to surface. It must have taken several months of production from the world's bauxite and copper mines to generate enough metal for the processor's heatsink (sorry - Thermal Interface Module), which is about the size of a small bungalow. If you don't believe me, check out the first web link below. It's actually a combined fan and heatsink, as the fan sits against the case's air inlet grille sucking in cool ambient air, plus any unsuspecting small rodents that happen to pass.
The reason for this monstrosity is Intel's power-hungry Prescott Pentium 4 chip, which has long since broken the 100W barrier. And this is why I think BTX is doomed for business use, although it might appeal to the PC "modding" fraternity, where size is everything and empty real estate inside the box is lovingly filled with flashing LEDs and garish neon lights.
I don't know who this guy is but he's going on my read list.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20846331
On the subject of benchmarks. Having seen these things paraded around for a very long time the one thing I've learned is that the integrity of the benchmarker is much more important than the actual benchmarks. It seems that it's possible to get almost any result if the right shenanigans are employed.