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I agree about support view
The weakness is not yet big and gap up can happen
I noticed weakness even on Friday, so if I had calls I would've sold them at the close, ALL the position
I only had red lotto puts
I should've bought time on them puts and bank today, live and learn, especially with them options
There is absolutely NO difference between "natural" and "man made".
The man is part of nature, therefore whatever he does, INCLUDING the horrible nuclear tests of the past, are NATURAL events.
If you want you can say "NOT man made" vs "Man made",
But as NATURAL is concerned it all is natural. Market BS and inflation and whatever else.
I was shocked too when I learned this fact first time
(value) Money and (fiat) currencies are two different things.
It doesn't matter if it's digital or paper or plastic or credit or whatever.
It comes down to "ability to ask for goods and services".
So if there are only 100 apples and we have 100 dollars among us we can buy 1 apple for 1 dollar.
If the crooks CREATE another 100 dollars for whatever reason, even totally unrelated to the 100 apples, then ability exists that we can buy 200 apples. But we only have 100 apples. Therefore NATURALLY the price of apples will increase by 100%.
Exception (delay really) is when the situation exists that the country that CREATES the extra 100 funny dollars manage to fool another country to give them the 100 apples from their country in exchange for the funny dollars.
So if you are mafia and succeed to give to the stores your fake money you are good.
It's exactly the same principle.
The American dollar will only collapse when the other countries will refuse accepting the dollar as pay for their own apples that they work hard like idiots to get and give them away like fools (for now) for dollars. The life in America will dramatically change literally overnight at that point.
I think that will not be a shock but a period of disbelief and transition and then fast accelerating into a shock and the end of an era.
It's called pushing your luck...
This good life could last long long time. But the main reason it's destroyed ahead of its time is that there have been not a single patriotic leader for as long as the eye can see in our times, as every single guy or girl that rise up is only self serving and reckless with the dollar only demanding spending and so are the rest of the elite gang on all levels.
The USD Titanic WILL sink.
It's NOT unsinkable.
...The "Captains" are making sure of that...
Full speed ahead with the money creation, disregard all the dangers.
I hope not soon, but SPY will be denominated in a different currency.
Printed or digital makes no difference in the effects
3320 to 3340 shows a area51 churn area each time SPX enters it..
Thereafter SPX shoots fast
very similar to SPY 320-340
I understand ONE churn, but not every single time, making it 3 times in mere 2 months
I wonder what would be the take from this fact
For one, this precise area is also the shake-AND-Top formation of January-February , just before the bignormous FAST drop into March.
That February top has been violated by now as we all know
I observed few things:
- Shorting is rarely working.
- When it does it's almost incredible , an out of blue drop, totally announced technically drop.
- Some of the best shorts opportunities were (if taken) when market moved insanely strong, almost looking a stupid idiot to even thinking about buying puts.
One of the reason , and it makes sense, is that at such a point there must be really really really few shorting from the retail side, and only the insiders.
We are now in such a place.
On one hand everyone looks at 360 to sell longs or short. If the cart is heavy with longs waiting to cash out, then the cart will topple now. But if volume is any indicator, as Vandal pointed out if you paid attention, volume has been low, and NOBODY has been participating (meaning retail), so SPY might as well rise a bit further since there are not many collecting from the ordinary people.
The rise also discourage many from shorting, but WILL short the 360.
So I think, that to frustrate the most traders will be to have an UNEXPECTED selling event right after a very strong day. Today qualifies on many angles.
The money can be printed, the market can be pumped, 330, 340, 350, 360, 370, WHATEVER.
But there is ONE thing the money printers and market pumpers can NOT do ---> allow too many people to make money (long side)
Just imagine 100% of American people , or any people for that matter, make salaries off the buying then selling higher.
NOBODY will have anything except worthless dollars in bank.
Every asset will go for a million on the dollar almost instantaneously AND keep rising. NOBODY will be able to buy anything or get any services, everyone will just play the market.
IMPOSSIBLE to happen or even nearing that will be a catastrophe.
Therefore, the limit of rising of market is IMPOSED AND DICTATED by the economic mechanics, and the Fed, all of the world Feds combined can NOT do a thing about it.
Very smart and in the know individuals/organizations know where such no-go red lines are and will stay clear of nearing them.
We, at least me, do NOT know such lines, neither can I even envision to gain data to calculate it much less to calculate it.
But it's enough for me to at least understand that this limitation exists by nature of things and I must be ready for market "overheating" and downturns.
360 is our next line in the sky and SPY has to close above it in all time frames, particularly the monthly chart.
2+1¢
He may have the timing wrong?!
Let's look at this this way...
there have been 3 (THREE!!!) consecutive gap up and run
Today is the FORTH gap up ..... also a FOURTH "and run all day" ???
Typically it's 3 times (for all kind of reasons, VALID reasons)
So I think odds are for a down from open more than are for an up from open
(open is 349.59)
sitting on few red puts taken today
just because it's 350, no other technical reason
wanted to add but I don't see any intraday resistance so can't add
351 could be a good place to add, but only if shoots there right now
if by EOD then it's a no
buying new calls here is idiotic risky
holding already green calls until intraday resistance is smart
Yes
And let's not forget the chart forming during all this, which also reflects uptrend, saying buy the dip and don't gamble shorting, so is 2 for 2.
That's possible as part of scenario.
Problem with that theory tho is that even with bad news they ramped it up.
My theory is based on money transfer.
The insiders produce a dip , PREFERABLY under bad news, so Joe trader will be scared and won't load up so be kept out of this.
Then use Fed money to ramp the market up, PREFERABLY during closed market hours so traders can't climb ("Oh, missed, too late now")
Then they exit and collect big profits. Then produce a dip etc etc. Rinse repeat.
They don't collect 100% but pretty decent imo above 50% of Fed money end up in private pockets of this elite.
confidence again ...
just saying
we know what happened last time
today COULD be the top to load extremely cheap puts
problem is doing it right, assessing it properly, more than one time frame and ind
there are plenty for bullish case, so fishing for swing top is not easy, it's borderline surgical
I'll try my best on the road with my phone
1. IMO there is an arbitrary system AND a calculated system.
2. Choosing the percentage point (i.e. 1.25, or 1.5, or 2.5%) is not your choice but must be the most used percentage in chart by market. So it comes from study. Same goes for arbitrary numbers and they both are very connected.
3. OEPM is the right point. I studied random and different points and OEPM seem most correlated. (very time consuming this study)
4. Any such system presented on the board lacks an IF-THEN "pilot guidance-system". I have built one and it makes a world of difference.
Can't remember exactly, but as a guiding pointer it goes like this - IF +1% but not 1.3% AND then -1% , THEN +2% 80% unlikely, and - 2% 80% likely.
My point nr 1. is also crucial in this scheme.
5. From my own experience, (in the beginning) I looked at the charts in a very relaxed time, let my mind see whatever can, using long term charts on a big screen, and shapes started coming to me. It was a "Matrix-like" moment. Then I took notes of my first impression and second impression, then went on grinding numbers work to settle as much as I could all the picture. It took serious time.
This work I did on QQQ. Shortly thereafter (relatively) I came on SPY board. I noticed that SPY does NOT follow my findings as well as QQQ, but has a different signature. I got busy with SPY and entangled in trading this and I grossly neglected continuing that OEPM grid work or customizing it to SPY arena (from QQQ).
It is a valid concept. The IF-THEN would create a secondary set of grid, much like a ladder, which would be the guidance-system inside the first grid of OEPM which is a reference.
Thank you for speaking your mind.
"My" problem...
... I don't place bets based on those things.
I only use them as side-kicks AFTER the chart shows me some love.
I use charts.
Chart clearly shows me resistance. Yesterday action reinforced that "thing".
I surely go long, but ... not here (my point)
I would take a chance and buy support
Hard to do, but very simple otherwise
How can a trader go long now with conviction when just saw what the market can do yesterday with that big and quick plunge from relatively same level?!
(same case for shorting if you look at today action)
He can't
This should translate in extremely low market participation for a little while..
I know I'm watching the show with popcorn now
so yeah
To add to this perceived lack of potential, I also think that both high and low of the week is settled
1. with those averages you can not see a death cross.
They use either 50-200 or at least 20-50 for that.
2. having said that, there is indeed no death cross.
3. if you use that moving averages combo how comes I notice bad calls from you and reluctance to stick neck out on market calls (detached from news)
That combo is good and should make winning calls and trades well above 50%
I think it's a matter of trading plan, strategy, and implementation (sticking to it, aka trading discipline)
Good chart and add d50 which is badly missing.
Also BB is rarely useful, mostly adding to eye clutter (a huge negative negating the few positives), so just simply using the d20 is cleaner and add BB as a check when suspecting it should be checked.
There are other places for me with BB being the star but not here.
This chart is conventional as it gets, nothing secret about it, so please give a daily status as it will be most often correct, especially if you add d50 which will also provide you with extra charting power and death cross check ability.
I like when I see simple things
You have a point.
But it seems I listen to the shop properly.
Bulls got cocky-bulls, high-fiving, sure thing any and all trades... etc etc..
This must've been reflecting in MM bottom line and I don't think they like it.
..... So we have the selling.
I don't believe for a moment that market went down because "no negotiations" or any other type of "(fake)news".
Why? Because the market is totally controlled by Trump and gang (Fed and the other thugs). NO penny down on SPY unless is approved in triplicate by Trump and Co.
If market were free, then yes, we could try to make sense of news data and such. But not in a socialist market.
So they shake the tree of weak bulls, then uptrend resumes UNABATED.
I was also right on the money with my post about not liking the higher daily high in the morning as it's the trademark for a down day at tops. This time they red my post and inserted a twist, and went AGAIN even higher, but it didn't fool me that's for sure.
I bought some calls at the lows and will buy more accordingly until the MT changes, then I flip.
I was up 20% then went to 0 as I am totally handicapped with my phone watching and duties. At least I bought the lows and not high.
Technically I detect resistance in weekly at 342ish that triggered such a response from algos.
But as I was saying to nowhat SPY is between Support at 320 and resistance at 340 and will bounce (on whatever "news") until one is broken.
Today did NOT break 340 to the upside. That resistance is even more so reinforced now by today action. This blood will attract the sharks ("bears") as now there is an increased resistance picture which they can work with.
A daily close above today will negate today selling, otherway it's written in bull blood for all to see --> Resistance and likely the ever eluding (covid) TOP.
It worries me as a potential calls buyer daytrader that the MMs made a higher high in the very beginning of the day. This is often their trademark for cleaning overnight stops on shorts then sell all day even if SPY will go higher the days after.
In such cases I have to be extra vigilant and careful what places I buy what (as daytrading is concerned)
listen to what you say
Part 1
" Odds are increasing that up is the way we go over the next two weeks, probably with some periods of consolidation."
It means buy the dips and sell the rips
Yesterday was a rip. I missed it to sell it because i didn't take it (Fri) because I thought I'll have an opp to get in on Monday and save the decay, but didn't.
Now I wait for a dip that I like, no hurry, I don't want to trade every day, only to be good trades
So trades have to be maintained so to speak, not added and added and incurring decay and suffering through dips.
Part 2 - this part2 contradicts the part1 strategically
"Bought some more longs this morning."
In our both opinions we are not facing a go-go-go-go market where buy and hold and add is the game
I wonder why someone like you wonder about such a thing
I actually do
markets segments are pistons in a big engine, they take turns of strength days
we have to choose most revealed points recognized by algos
337.6 338.2 are good lines to buy some long bets at the moment
that's my atm daytrading menu
I won't short because MT is up
In what time frame chart that reverses are you talking about
SPY had high of the week or not too far from it
puts cheap again
While I don't mind it a bit, I can't help but notice bulls high-fiving...
All sure bets?
Is this normal?
Should I be a bit concerned? A lot?
Just noticing this development is all
Only gamblers and rookies buy this 340 as resistance
That goes for long puts too
Maybe that's why the crickets
The "formula" is like this:
The manipulation depends on the manipulator buying power.
When the volume is small, so bellow the manipulators' buying power, then they can do whatever they like.
When the volume exceeds the manipulators' buying power then there is no manipulation (and if manipulator is caught wrong then a powerful counter-manipulation move will occur).
When it comes to SPY they can manipulate small volume, but also big to outright huge volume. Reason is they do NOT reach their limit on buying power (think Fed).
So when it comes to SPY trading in fear looking at the volume , big or small, is not helpful.
Not true. Me and many here ARE interested!
Quote: "doesn't matter what SPY's number is. No one is interested. "
Of course it was.
Just make a balance average of our Vandal (rare) calls , then do what that average says.
It's logical simple math.
I feel that Vandal-ing our trading efforts works...
Today is a good sample..
However, I do believe that resistance is 339ish then 342 areas.
Not strong resistances because d50 support bellow, but acknowledged.
So a flush CAN still happen!
A resistance with d50 broken is a recipe for downage,
We are getting there, just need time.
Meanwhile I trade every short term support, Buying that is.
"It seems they are not being straightforward."
It's a safe bet
Correct, but I see that as half the analysis.
An equally important support line exists at 320.
So the same rules apply
Therefore (theoretically) price will bounce between your 340 resistance line and 320 support line until one is broken.
If 340 is broken then 360 is resistance
If 320 is broken then 310 and 300 are next support lines.
So far no Moving averages were used in analysis. They will come in handy to increase odds for scenarios.
20 , 50, and 200 moving averages will be more than enough.
Rightfully so some chartists add daily 10 as a ST indicator, but that's about it, more and you have a clutter.
If not enough clutter add some pics ...
THE IMAGE !!!
Election times brother.
T doesn't want to look weak in any shape or form.
Having declared (who knows the reality with him!) that he got covid gains him some sympathy points, but he can't use that too much, so back to all the other tricks now...
I see myself just how badly the the economy is struggling.
SPY here at 340 is a made up number.
Versus inflation tho , the valuation it's another story all together.
Now Market Makers have a new "market" indicator to manipulate in direction needed...
>>> T health status
They want it down?
T coughed
They want it down a bit more?
T coughed 2 times
They want it up
T felt a bit better this morning
and so on
Then just so we don't get bored they could throw in some vaccine "news" in this ridiculous charade of market
But in all honesty we can't expect fairness in the lawlessness rigged to the core market casino.
Whining is for woosies "traders"
In the end it's the chart
It's up to me to use it properly
it's up to me to have a trading plan
if I feel frustrated then I should take a good looonnngggg look at the loser in the mirror
Winning against the house it's a great personal victory.
Loser talk:
Look at this "chart", they don't fill gap.
They left so many gaps unfilled.
Look how they moved the market to "X" chart point.
Ridiculing market participants like (paid shills) CNBC, Fed, MM, Big traders (i.e. Buffett, FMs)
THESE are our OPPONENTS, our ADVERSARIES ---> The other team.
It is extremely bad sport and disrespectful to mock the adversary unless humorist and in good spirit.
Winner talk:
Look at this chart level, I will buy "X" support.
I will sell because overbought and indicator X is OB.
I will sell because EA announcement /FOMC.
I will sell because psychological level is reached.
I will buy because it found support.
I will buy because the Fed supports the bid.
Have I sinned and talked like a loser?
YES
The difference is that I recognize the bad and try my very best to weed it out.
One thing that things can get confusing is I do talk bad about the Fed criminals and associates, but in disconnect to the market. I despise them because they steal from us the value of our money with their printing. So that's the issue. But even then I have to minimize this as it does affect my focus and objective thinking that I need to keep for trading - I don't want the evil doers to win against me more than they already do.
Weekend thoughts
You call this tanking ?!?
Open -3%-5% down and keep dropping is tanking
All I see is a pitiful correction
I see inflation we already have and then some..
Was that sarcasm then?
Sadly the joke is on us.
Or you are thinking we get JPOW's 2% inflation (BS number imo)
Quote: "JPOW gettin the inflation he's looking for."
I get your point.
But you are acting in heist and dismissing him too quickly.
THAT is a mistake.
In the process you shut yourself down from objectively looking at what is being said.
I am absolutely convinced that many do the same mistake.
He does have valid points in there in his posts.
Don't throw the dirt without extracting the golden nuggets.
Granted, it's not easy to find them nuggets, but that doesn't diminish at all their importance.
just saying
I do read carefully, learn what I can, but take the trades as I see fit from my charts completely detached of uttered negativity or positivity. In fact, I tend to first place the trades, and only then squirm around the yard.
Statistically:
Tom is 1st of the month which should be green
Tom is Thu which should be red
Tom is October which some say is strong some say is weak
Also , we enter this particular October as a presidential campaign which is perceived as volatility
So what's gonna be ?!?!
You can't even trust the coin to flip in your favor
Alternatively you may look for ER free capacity.
I don't know a site for that but the media were mentioning this until not long ago, and this number being bad was the main reason Italy closed when she did.
when covid companies (covid high fliers) will break bellow their d50, THEN is when SPY and the market have some serious downage.
Until then it's volatility
it can make you or destroy you (unless you stick with a good plan)
One of the things I learnt in life is that the big institutions (including the corrupt government institution) only allow to themselves lions to benefit from good deals and big special favors.
There are examples that thaught me that lesson.
So when I see an actually VERY GOOD deal for the commoners coming from a big institution, I now know it's a BS and the commoners will be had.
Such a big institution is Market Makers (you can say big brokerages if you want), and by extension the oversight goon which is the Fed and the big T ___ .
So what would be a good deal? Well, prior cycle lows and d50 and such.
Now SPY is at d50. That is a good deal. Usually they don't allow the commoners to buy there so they prefer to visit it only for themselves, the elite, during the outside market hours.
This time was no different. They visited it outside market hours on Sept 8 and rallied for themselves on Sept 9 and washed lots of money in private this way - and they made sure to sell heavily at the end of it (SPY 339-340).
Then on Sep 11 (9/11 mind you) they finally let the commoners have a crumb at d50 during market hours.
They covered their shorts into hungry for d50 retail AND bought right along knowing to RE-sell at their sep9 340 sell point.
Then ... since the MM were not even thinking about thinking buying past their institution sep9 sell point , SPY collapsed back to d50 on sep 17 and 18. But now only retail remained holding the d50 line (bag). Retail has frail if any power. So naturally SPY collapsed through d50 with their yardstick measure of 10$ (3%).
So SPY has been now finally offered also to retail ... only to screw them. Aint that sweet..
By the same logical argument I can look to other sweet deals we were not let in..
My trading evolves in between such points. So if d50 is kept for the elite, I would know it's support and trade long with that as support.
Once they let retail have at it, then I will have to look at different, lower "only for the elite" deals so to build my uptrend scheme of trading.
To short is a bit more cumbersome since the Fed is having money fights. So I prefer to be in cash and trade the long side along the fed from whatever "only for the elite" support pivots..
Technically, for me d50 is NOT broken YET, only wounded. So Technically SPY can still revisit 360 !
Only more weakness will take down d50 which then will greatly diminish 360 revisit any time soon.