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The glimmer of hope Quan, is the AU 4hr signaled a reversal bar at 4am this morning so we can hold on to that that a reversal is coming soon. Maybe this 7650 level and round number area will hold. We'll see....
On the monthly, AU is currently on a wave 4 counter trend move back up. Should be a wave 1. We were banking on trading the minor wave 2 pull back to around 7328. AU could go to 7728 or even 7878 before we get a decent pull back. Question is, can you withstand another 90 to 230 pip move on top of current levels? AU can go all the way to 8748 and still be within the EW rules. The wave count says no not now but the price is saying otherwise. Good Luck
Sorry Jav. I'm not hurting but I don't like to see 2 positions sitting @ -100 pips and 1 position sitting @ -40 pips. To me that means my entry timing is off. I should've scaled in light and got aggressive towards the potential end. Instead I did it backwards. And not surprising it happens on what else "AU", my nemesis. Hahaha.
AU still hasn't hit the 7728-7731 level which is around the 88.6% retrace area of the entire leg down. Right now it sits just above the 78.6%. If my count is correct, we should be starting a wave 5 down but so far it's been waving bye bye. I got in way too early on this thing and knowing better I've added to it anyways but oh well. Live and learn.
I'm telling you it's like they are in zombie mode...you keep shooting but they keep going. Lol. It's been in this rising expanded wedge since the news yesterday. Just when you think it's reached the apex, it dips just enough to widen the wedge and keep going upwards.
I'm already in an NU short from 6822 but like the rest of these pairs they are like the walking dead. They slowly creep upwards when they should have died long ago.
Yep just the way I had it drawn up. Lol. Of course we wait for the double bounce pattern first
Yeah it did make a false set up there. I'm a little over extended at the moment but I mat just throw a little something in the ring on it. Either that or NU.
Either way it's progress pennies. I see UJ went beyond the 111 target as well and forming 4 hr bullish rails (engulfing) setup. That's a trend change coming to run back up to at least 117. Looks tempting.
Good morning all. I see AU is finally looking like it wants to give up the goods.
Adding another AU short here @ 7605
AUD/NZD had a nice sell off I see. Looks like I got out 97 pips too early. It has since moved back to nearly complete it's spike pattern.
Exactly. I'm still a work in progress pennies. Shooting star on tap.
Lol that's true. The longer I do this, the more I realize the bigger picture and it gets a little easier to accept. It helps fix that itchy trigger finger though that's for sure.
I hate giving up the gains I had today so I'm holding. May even add soon. I'm not panicked yet
Yeah the divergence says exhaustion...I think
This push upwards forced me to switch to the daily to find the target now which is between 7638-7655. A break above that brings 7728-7732.
Already at the new high. Here comes 7628
It already is lol.
Noooo pennies!!!! I don't wanna ride a short that long.
Not yet Quan. Hopefully anyways lol. I napped through the completion of the rising wedge. The latest spike changed the pattern to expanding now. Fingers crossed for a return to 7509 at least.
Well apparently they did spike AU on top of another spike. Imaging that. Guess anything is possible.
Yea pennies. I've seen how it works and I'm only short AU because of this previous spike. My overall bias is still long but we can trade in between the moves. I'm counting on a move back down before it reaches that 7728 target though. The pattern you're referring to is the "king's crown". Essentially a triple top/bottom.
Then you can set your stop for the most you are willing to lose if it moves against you overnight. Worst case would be missing the trade all together to ease your concerns. A missed trade doesn't make or lose a thing, Quan.
Looks like AU went to the 88.6 before giving up. Hope you did well Quan. Short term it seems that you would've been ok on AU short or UJ long.
Good idea. Save your account and fight another time. Same as AU. I jumped back in short and since then they have pushed it higher back to 7557. Could still go up more to the 88.6% @ 7572. Either way she's coming down so I'll add...for now.
With it going through the 112.46 level, you have to look for the next possible target maybe on a higher time frame. It's approaching one @ 112.33, there's one around 112.05 and one around 111.34 @ the bottom of the range and I certainly wouldn't hold that long. The 15 min and 30 min appears to forming a reversal bar and price is definitely over extended so this could be it. Keep a tight stop and/or cut losses short if need be.
No worries Quan. There's plenty of opportunities.
UJ hit the 112.46 level as expected.
Hey Quan, AU tagged 75599 then dropped 30 pips. I took 25 on that move in minutes.
Thanks Stargate. Could be an excuse to bring it back down. I don't see a spike up on top of a spike up happening.
Just jumped in short AU @7558. 2 pips before my entry.
UJ just tagged the 78.6 FE. i'd like to see it hit 112.46 to complete a previous spike but either way it came within 5 pips. Of course this current spike bar needs to be retraced so 50% of the total move down is the first long target @ around 113.17
Thought the AU short left without me but looks like it turned out to be a fake. Here comes my entry....hopefully
One trade at a time Quan that's how you get there. I've been frustrated many times when I first started and vented to this board often but I stuck with it and continued to learn from these guys as well as a lot of videos/charts. I urge you to do the same. You'll get it.
Oh I loved it Quan. I was short UJ as well and took about 25 more on my AUD/NZD short. Beautiful day to say the least. Glad you did well
There's AU @ 7540. Gonna wait a bit longer til around 7560
Agreed and this spike took out all the minor spike levels that needed to be filled. Only one left is the current one
Straight down pennies. Good call.
Ouch!!! I'd be crying right about now. My short is coming in around 7540